Undergraduate Admissions in a
Changing Market
A level and Curriculum Reform – HE
response
James Seymour
Director of UK Recruitment & Outreach
Aston University
j.r.seymour@aston.ac.uk
2014 entry – what did we learn?
►
Entry to UK Universities up by 3% in 2014 to record levels
►
Student Number Control: no evidence of “BBB-ABB cliff edge”
►
Most UK Universities relaxed entry grades on results day
►
Increased use of Clearing by nearly all, inc Russell Group
►
Some Universities making unconditional offers before results day
►
Scholarships proved popular and awareness increased
►
Competition increasing, not for places but for students
►
Bounce-Back: UCAS applications up again in 2015 (2%), Aston up
19%
National UCAS applications 2013-2015 entry
2014 entry – what did we learn?
►
Entry to UK Universities up by 3% in 2014 to record levels
►
Student Number Control: no evidence of “BBB-ABB cliff edge”
►
Most UK Universities relaxed entry grades on results day
►
Increased use of Clearing by nearly all of the Russell Group
►
Some Universities making unconditional offers before results day
►
Scholarships proved popular and awareness increased
►
Competition increasing, not for places but for students
►
2014: Aston and King’s enrolled more students than 2011 12 13
►
Bounce-Back: UCAS applications steady again in 2015
ABB and SNC – Aston University position
and response – 2014
50%+ of Aston students at ABB+ or equivalent in 2013
1,400 “core” places (SNC) in 2014 – Aston awarded
additional places
Required c1,000 students with ABB+ or equivalent
BTEC – all Aston students have required DDD+ since 2010
AAB+ Aston Excellence Scholarships irrespective of family
income (£4,000 over 4 years inc placement year)
Placement year and other unique Aston qualities
Guaranteed accommodation on campus
Investment in staff and facilities to meet demand from
increased numbers of students
Student Satisfaction in UK top quartile at 89% (2013 and
2014)
2015 UCAS applications up 17% on 2014, 40% on 2012
ABB and SNC – Aston University position
and response – 2014
50%+ of Aston students at ABB+ or equivalent in 2013
1,400 “core” places (SNC) in 2014 – Aston awarded
additional places
Required c1,000 students with ABB+ or equivalent
BTEC – all Aston students have required DDD+ since 2010
AAB+ Aston Excellence Scholarships irrespective of family
income (£4,000 over 4 years inc placement year)
Placement year and other unique Aston qualities
Guaranteed accommodation on campus
Investment in staff and facilities to meet demand from
increased numbers of students
Student Satisfaction in UK top quartile at 89% (2013 and
2014)
2015 UCAS applications up 17% on 2014, 40% on 2012
Offer Making – more and more quickly
Cap lifted for 2015 entry – no more ABB student number
controls
Based on predicted grades – only c10-15% predicted correctly
across their base three A-level subjects
Exam Boards – will % of A/B Grades decline again in 2015,
2016, 2017?
Make more offers in case of increased/perceived competition?
Will number of BTEC DDM+ or equivalent grades continue to
increase as A level grades decline?
They (and we) want you…
Will “popular” Universities expand in 201517?
Limiting Factors still
include: Lab/Seminar room
space, space in residences,
staff student ratios,
professional accreditation,
National Student
Survey/student experience,
% of offers
made/applications received
Medicine, Dentistry, NHS
(Nursing etc),Teaching not
affected – still subject to
Student Number Controls
“Cambridge University will be able to enrol more
bright students under government plans” Guardian
Will “popular” Universities continue to expand?
Balancing act of higher and lower tariff/grade candidates amongst
Universities – impact on league tables and retention v income
Widening Participation/OFFA targets and “Fair Access”
ABB+ abolished in 2015 according to Chancellor statement. NOT
wise to wait and try and get in next year
Unintended/intended consequences already massive – but not
fully realised until 2015-17.
New PGT loans system for some “underrepresented” UK/EU
students from 2016, scholarships in 2015
Applicant Strategy from 2016 – my advice
Paperless admissions from 2013 – avoid the Christmas/Jan rush
No more formal January exams
Add choice 4-5 later but get top 3 in by November!
Admissions and recruitment are more closely linked
More sophisticated, personal comms with applicants
We still use email even if they don’t!
UCAS is a personal, closed system
Clearing/adjustment a strategic decision, not a distressed
purchase.
Encourage points/grades spread on future UCAS choices
x1 aspirational/worth a gamble
x3 on or close to realistic predictions
x1 good fall-back choice with lower grades
2015-2019 entry - what might change
Cap on places will be lifted, no ABB+/DDM student number
controls
More unconditional offers and related schemes
More direct applications?
Will “typical offers” fall back - eg from AAB to ABB or ABB-BBB
etc
Widen the applicant pool
Uncertainty over curriculum reform
Recognition of lower grades but high ability
GCSE grade requirements
Will Universities expand in a falling demographic trend to 2020?
Scholarships may reduce for some and increase for others
NOT wise to hold back on a first choice place in 2015, 2016
UCAS entry tariff very important in rankings…
National Student Survey
20.4%
Entry tariffs
14.1%
Graduate employment
13.1%
Research Assessment Exercise
12.0%
Staff/student ratio
9.0%
Spend per student
9.0%
First/2:1 %
7.3%
Attrition/drop out
Value added
Facilities spend
Peer review
0.0%
Top 6
6.8%
3.8%
2.5%
2.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
top 6 factors represent 78% of the scores across
all 4 rankings
Realistic and positive….
Vast majority get 4 or more offers (80% plus)
Applications per place often quoted – don’t forget students are
making 4 other applications.
The debate dominated by a few thousand applications for a small
number of highly selective courses - less than 2% of total.
Applications for Medicine and Dentistry down 10% in 2015
Check entry requirements and specific requirements (eg
A/AS/BTEC/GCSE/IB etc)
eg: Aston: 2015 entry: 15,500 applications for 2,700 places:
c80% of applicants received offers. Average entry grade: ABBBBB from best 3 A levels, D*DD at BTEC (380 UCAS Points)
Gazing into the crystal ball….
A-level, BTEC and GCSE reform
General Election May 2015
Delay some reform decisions?
Lifting of the fees cap …. or reduction in fees, return to cap on
places?
Improved position for PGT/masters funding for UK students?
More integrated masters/enhanced first degrees
UCAS Tariff reform
Future direction of HEFCE, BIS, OFFA, DfE
OFFA – Office for Fair Access
Future of OFFA – Office for Fair Access - regulator
Access Agreements a key element of University planning
2015-2020 strategic plan sets out challenging targets
Focus on:
Greater challenge/stretch for HEIs
Whole University approach to Access, Progression,
Success
Access to competitive subjects/Universities
Access to Medicine
Care leavers and young carers
Rural/coastal, white working class boys
The Aston Applicant Pool
15,500 applications, c2,700 places in 2015
80% made conditional offers
19% increase in 2015, 50% more applications than 2012
70% on sandwich courses, placement years, year abroad
Long standing commitment to graduate employment success
Campus University, 10,000 students, “Human scale”
Campus accommodation guarantee, Birmingham on the up!
Challenging but realistic entry requirements
20% full or mixed BTEC entry (D*DD average)
Entry requirements: BBB-AAB
Average A level on entry: ABB-BBB, 380 UCAS points
A*A*A*-BCC range accepted in 2014 depending on the subject
Curriculum Reform – Aston’s position
Aston statement sent to Heads and Principals in October 2014
3 or 4 full A levels
AS levels in Y12
GCSE expectations from 2017
Mix of old and new subjects
Vocational Qualifications and Mix
Core Maths (will generate UCAS points)
EPQ (currently 70 UCAS points)
Practical endorsement/certificate - we will expect this
Typical offers
UCAS reference – brief statement
We have been here before – Curriculum 2000…
Keen to hear your views
Curriculum Reform
Gazing into the crystal ball….
A-level and GCSE reform
www.aston.ac.uk/EasySiteWeb/GatewayLink.aspx?alId=225523
www.kcl.ac.uk/study/ug/admissions/Policies-andGuidance/Curriculum-reform-in-England.pdf
General Election …..May 2015
Reversal of reform decisions?
Lifting of the fees cap …. or reduction in fees?
Improved position for PGT funding for WP students?
UCAS Tariff reform
Curriculum Reform – Aston’s position
Curriculum Reform – Aston’s position
Aston statement sent to Heads and Principals in October 2014
3 or 4 full A levels
AS levels in Y12
GCSE expectations
Mix of old and new subjects
Vocational Quals and Mixes
Core Maths
EPQ
Typical offers
Keen to hear your views
Curriculum Reform – Aston’s position
An opportunity to look again - what we do, why we do it…
What do we accept now, what are the benefits of the reforms
Keep it simple
Flexible, open, consultative with our feeder schools/colleges
Need to protect/preserve our A level/academic intake
Subject specs and curriculum reforms may benefit our students
Impact of Core Maths, EPQ
Reduction in “Strategic failure”
Developing our curriculum 2016-2022
Assessment/coursework mix
Modules/retakes
January exams and semesters
More time for teaching
First year transition/retention
Communicating with our graduate employers/placement
employers on A level, BTEC, GCSE
Unconditional Offers and other strategies
Search on Twitter for “Unconditional Offer”
Some a straight U offer with no conditions before results
Others a Scheme where a C offer becomes a U offer if the
student goes Firm Choice
Originally mainly for AAA predicted candidates/AS grades but
some far lower or with no link to predictions
2 - 3 Universities in 2013
20+ in 2014
30+ in 2015?
Some HEIs may change offers retrospectively in Feb-March
Will PQA happen after all by accident?
Unconditional Offers – Potential negatives
Confusion and aspiration
Mixed messages
Perceived fairness
Class/school dynamics
Adjustment eligible?
Predicted grades accurate?
What do schools/teachers think?
Graduate prospects/employers?
What about BTEC and other quals?
Could save the AS level when A level reforms come in…
Aims to genuinely reward potential
New addition to the “offer library” but not a blanket policy
Students and parents seem to like them if they get them!
Unconditional Offers – my advice
Don’t panic and accept a place too soon – often a May/April
deadline – wait and look at other options
It’s only 5% or less of the pool. UCAS:1.4% of all offers made
Don’t assume it will proliferate again in 2016
Don’t assume you/they will get one in 2016
Be careful on social media - instagram etc
AS grades may be especially important for 2016 - may
encourage some students to work harder for AS in 2015
Clarification from HEIs on “conditions” and reality check
Await responses and reactions from other offers
Don’t switch off in 2015, 2016, 2017!
Scholarships and awards
AAA-AAB predicted students achieving ABB would have been
admitted anyway?
Unconditional Offers – a small snapshot of
what students actually achieved…
2014 entry: also applied to Aston and received Conditional offer
but choose University A/B/C with an Unconditional Scheme
University A, High GCSEs and A High A level predictions - 95%
achieved at or close to the offer – we would have taken them!
University B, Unconditional Offer Scheme based on BBB
predictions – 80%+ achieved below BBB, most well below – we
would not have taken them.
BTEC and/or BTEC A level mix – all achieved the BTEC
grade but many then missed the A level grade
University C (unconditional offer with no conditions) – all
achieved at or close to the stated typical offer (v small numbers
at top end of grades)
Aston “lost” c120 students out of 2,500 firm acceptances 2014
Thanks for listening and keep in touch
Any questions or comments?
j.r.seymour@aston.ac.uk
21st annual Aston Admissions Conference for Teachers and
Advisers: 7th January 2016: www.aston.ac.uk/teachers
Open Day: Sat 13th June 2015
Aston University Services for Schools and Colleges:
www.aston.ac.uk/schliaison
“….rigorous academic standards and graduates who are among
the most sought-after in the UK….” Sunday Times
“Aston is a small university with a big reputation. It was only
when I started looking for a graduate job that I realised how true
this is – every company I spoke to had hired Aston graduates in
the past….” Joe Ingram, Aston Graduate, now working in New
York.
Thanks for listening and best of luck with your applications
and exams.
j.r.seymour@aston.ac.uk