Policy and Earth Observation
Innovation Cycle (PEOIC)
project
Yasko Kasai, National Institute of Information and Communications Technology (NICT)/ Tokyo Institute of Technology/The
ministry of internal affairs and Communications
Setsuko Aoki, Keio University,
Akiko Okamatsu, Hosei University
Masami Onoda, the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA)/ the Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES)
Akiko Aizawa, National Institute of Informatics
The PEOIC project is under the Research Institute of Science and Technology for Society (RISTEX) in the Japan Science and
Technology Agency (JST)
Guidelines for the Advisory Board
PEOIC is under the JST “R&D Program: Science of Science, Technology and Innovation Policy”
https://www.ristex.jp/EN/examin/stipolicy/index.html
The Program states that “Indeed, in science, technology and innovation (STI) policy to date, problems have been
encountered not infrequently. Sometimes R&D investment has been made without adequate objective evidence.
Other times, although great insights have been gained through basic research, the research outcomes have not been
applied in an effective fashion so that they lead to innovations or the creation of systems to resolve challenges and
advance society. Yet other times, outstanding policy ideas have been conceived, but they have not been implemented
due to insufficient communication with the public. The root cause of this was the absence of clear, evidence-based
methods to create STI policy.
To remedy this situation, our program aims to develop methods to formulate the following kinds of policies;
Policies that will lead to the resolution of real challenges by advancing the basic research and applying the research
outcomes to the challenges and
Policies that will promote the innovation of society by drawing on basic research.
In this endeavor, it will be critical
To design a multistage process from basic research, to social application of outcomes, to evaluation of that application;
To develop methods for measuring the economic and social impact of R&D investment;
To build an effective research framework to form policies based on objective evidence; and
To ensure proper communication among policy makers, the scientific community and the public in order to promote
the application of research findings in society.
Objective of the Program:
To contribute over the medium to long term to evidence-based policy formation in the area of STI through the
following approaches;
Promoting R&D projects on new analytic methodologies, models, data-systematization tools and aggregate indicators
that can be used in actual policy,
Increasing the number of researchers who work on this challenge in a wide range of disciplines and interdisciplinary
fields, and expanding the community network through public relations and dialogue on the activities.
The PEOIC Project aims at:
In general:
We are seeking to identify generic models, criteria or recommendations that might prompt organisations/agencies that are
working on missions to consider the connection of science and technology to environmental policy in the design and
concept phases.
Primarily interested in the environmental policy domains …
Wish to understand how science and technology (in particular EO) has (and can in the future) influence decision-makers
and societal policy. Interested in specific examples.
Target is to perform an assessment of the impact of satellite observations on environmental policy and use this
information to propose a mission that would achieve an “innovation cycle”, whereby the assessment would feed back to
new innovation for next-generation observation technology, thus contributing to global policy demand for information.
For the workshop:
The goal of the workshop is to propose a preliminary method/set of criteria/recommendations to provide evidence-based
evaluation in order to guide the development of new missions
AB members are asked to present on the relationship between EO and decision-making/societal policy in their fields of
work, to identify topics for the publication and to stimulate discussion amongst the group
AB members will be involved in two discussion sessions to define the goals, planned outcomes, structure, content, required
inputs, and schedule for the publication.
For the publication:
We are aiming to address the gap in knowledge related to the impact of satellite Earth observations on enhanced societal
policies.
The publication will summarise, for the first time, the current state of work in the field of studies on the policy impact of
satellite EO.
We plan to publish a preliminary method/set of criteria/recommendations to provide evidence-based evaluation guide
the development of new missions.
AB members will contribute chapters based on their input to the workshop – shaped by the discussions at the workshop.
Research Flow
Data bases
Statistical approach
Policy
Mining
Satellite observation
Inversion
analysis
evaluation
Evaluation
Policy Group
Setsuko Aoki, Professor, Faculty of Policy Management, Keio University
Akiko Okamatsu, Professor, Faulty of Humanity and Environment, Hosei University
Hiroko Sasaki, Ocean Division, Int’l Legal Affairs Bureau, Ministry of Foreign Affairs
1 Methodology of the study
1 Goal: to find the correlation between a certain environmental policy and spacebased imagery
2 Selection of some issues likely to find a strong relationship if not correlation
(1) the protection of the ozone layer
legal regime to control the produce, use and transfer the ozone depleting
substances (ODS) under the Vienna Convention/Montreal Protocol
“the single most successful international agreement to date”
(2) The Arctic region
8
1 The protection of ozone layer and satellite data
1 1985 (1988) Vienna Convention
for the Protection of Ozone Layer
2 1987 (1989) Montreal Protocol
on Substances that deplete the
Ozone layer
*4 amendments: 1990, 1992,
1997, 1999
*6 adjustments: 1990, 1992,
1995, 1997, 1999, 2007
?
9
Path to the legal regime of the ozone layer protection
year
Events (scientific, social events
Late
19c1930s
increasing capabilities to measure the volume of the ozone around the globe and to find the
relationship between the chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), ozone layer and the health impacts
1974
Prof. Rowland & Dr. Molina: Freon gas depletes the ozone layer. An article in “Nature”
1975
The first WMO intergovernmental scientific statement :warning of the danger to the ozone layer
1977
“World Plan of Action on the Ozone Layer“ adopted in the UNEP.
1978
USA banned the use of the CFCs. TOMS sensor since November 1978
1981
Governing council of UNEP formed an ad hoc legal and technical working group to draft a
Framework Convention for the Protection of the Ozone Layer.
1985
Vienna Convention for the Protection of Ozone Layer adopted.
1987
Montreal Protocol on Substances that deplete the Ozone layer
Established and establishing rules to control ODS
Montreal
Protocol
Vienna
Convention
(framework)
Concrete
obligations
Developing
obligations of
the Montreal
Protocol
through
Adjustments
and
Amendments
What is provided for?
*Vienna Convention (197 Parties) = to take appropriate measures --to protect human health and the environment against adverse effects
resulting or likely to result from human activities which modify or are
likely to modify the ozone layer.
*Montreal Protocol (197 Parties) regulates the production and use of
CFCs, halons, and carbon tetrachloride, which are all greenhouse gases.
States parties shall totally phase out ODS in accordance with the
schedule.
adjustment the advancement of such time guidelines
amendment adding new regulations including adding new substances
to control to the Montreal Protocol
Year
MOP
Entere
d into
force
Contents of the Amendment
1990
MOP2
1992
Adding the following controlled substances Chlorofluorocarbon (CFCs; CFC-13, 111,
112, 211, 212, 213, 214, 215, 216, 217);Carbon tetrachloride 1,1,1-trichloroethane
(methyl chloroform) ; Adding Hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) to the transitional
substances
1992
MOP4
1994
Replacing HCFCs (Hydrochlorofluorocarbons) as the controlled substances.
Adding the following controlled substances; Hydrobromofluorocarbons (HBFC),
Methyl bromide
1997
MOP9
1999
Banning the import and export of Methyl bromide from and to non-Parties
Controlling of trade with Parties; Establishing a system for licensing the import and
export of new, used, recycled and reclaimed controlled substances
1999
MOP11
2002
Adopting Hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) to the control of production and trade
Adding Bromochloromethane to the controlled substances; Banning the import
and export of Bromochloromethane from and to non-Parties Providing to the
Secretariat statistical data on the annual amount of the Methyl bromide
Amendment
year
MOP
Entered
into force
Contents of the Adjustment
1990
MOP2
1991
Adopting the severer level of production and consumption of the following controlled
substances; Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs; CFC 11, 12, 113, 114, 115); Halons (Halon 1211, 1301,
2402)
1992
MOP4
1993
Accelerating the schedule of controlling the following substances; Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs),
Halons, Other Fully Halogenated CFCs, Carbon Tetrachloride 1, 1, 1- Trichloroethane (Methyl
Chloroform)
1995
MOP7
1996
Accelerating the schedule of controlling the following substances;
Hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFC);- Methyl bromide.
Adopting the schedule of the following controlled substances with respect to developing
countries; Chlorofluorocarbons (CFC), Halon; -Carbon Tetrachloride; -1, 1, 1- Trichloroethane
(Methyl Chloroform). Adopting the following controlled substances with respect to developing
countries . Hydrobromofluorocarbons (HBFC); -Hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFC), Methyl
bromide
1997
MOP9
1998
Accelerating the schedule of controlling Methyl bromide
1999
MOP11
2000
Adopting the schedule of the following controlled substances in order to satisfy the basic
domestic needs of developing countries; Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), Halons, Other fully
halogenated CFCs, Methyl bromide
2007
MOP19
2008
Accelerating the schedule of controlling Hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs)
Adjustment
Research of the the documents: Vienna Convention COP/ Montreal
Protocol MOP and Ozone Research Managers (ORM), etc.
Promising findings
1 Among the various reports, those by the Ozone Research Managers
(ORM) best portray the role played by the satellite mission
instruments.
2 From the reports available, more and more importance and
effectiveness of the satellite data is recognized by increased
number of countries (comparative studies of national reports, etc.)
3 Satellite data is indispensable to i) enhance the accuracy of the
ground observation by comparison and ii) areas where few reliable
ground observing facility exists (e.g. Mongolia)
Promising finding of satellite data and the evolving
control through the Montreal Protocol and its
amendments/adjustments
many national reports of the Ozone Research Managers (ORM)
commonly state that the comparison between satellite-based
observations and ground-based ones (esp. Brewer- Dobson measuring
system) indispensable.
(finding)
Without satellite data, reliable data cannot be obtained, especially for
the large-area ozone column calculation.
Latest (2014) ORM meeting reports:
Combination of the Satellite datasets, simulation and ground-based observation
(Dobson-Brewer) should now be possible for the
i) accurate calculation of the emission of the ODS
and
ii) Measuring the important emerging ODS replacement substances (such as HFCs)
These two factors can influence the new regulations within the Montreal
Protocol scheme.
2 Future consideration
The arctic regime is in the midst of making for the mid-21st century.
While it is in a premature phase, satellite-data could be made use of for
adopting a certain policy over the other policies.
A few examples of mission instruments used
OCO-2; SAGE-III; AMSR-E/Aqua; AMSR-2/Aqua
PALSAR/ALOS-1 (JAXA)
（Private company (weather news) WNISAT-1)
Data mining
Group
Tomohiro Sato, Yasuko Kasai, (NICT)
Akiko Aizawa (NII)
Objective of this Group:
Quantification of relationship between Policy and Satellite Observation
CEOS
database
Document
(Policy)
UNEP Meeting of the Parties (MOP)
to the Montreal Protocol on
Substances that Deplete the Ozone
WMO/UNEP Scientific Assessments
of Ozone Depletion
Quantification
etc
First example: Ozone layer depletion
Approach is:
Coordinate texts that have different categories/fields/languages by Topic Analysis
Ex 1: Policy document vs Paper of satellite observation
EX 2: Science article vs News paper
EX 3: English vs Japanese
Science article
(Satellite obs.)
etc
Example of Topic Analysis
(UNEP/WMO Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion 2010)
Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) [Blei et al., 2003]
Extraction of Topics that are relevant to the document
“Let it be” is my favorite song.
John Lennon and Paul McCartney are best
The Beatles
musicians.
Topic
...
Topic 7th:
ozone simulation UV % change
future model column level total
projection century effect return
irradiance scenario 21st Esc
aerosol climate
Projection of ozone in 21st century
Topic 8th:
ozone UV datum trend
measurement total % irradiance
JPL satellite model observation
value solar cloud cross groundbased Clo polar radiation
...
General of ozone observation
Key Topics in WMO and MOP reports
(Topics that include the word “ozone”)
< WMO report >
< MOP report >
Atmospheric chemistry, Future prediction
1985
Antarctic ozone loss
1988
Chlorine species as CFC
UV and ozone, Bromine species
Climate change, Long-term trend
Recovery, Arctic
1989
1990
1991
1992
1994
1995
1997
1998
1999
Antarctic and Arctic ozone loss
2002
Chlorine/bromine species, UV
Long-term trend
2006
(We picked up important five reports.)
CFC, Halon, Agreement
Chlorine and bromine species
Phase-out, CFC, bromine
Ozone depleting substances, Multilateral
Accordance, alternative, phase-out, UV
“CFC” and “bromine” are the keywords
Scenario of climate change in the 21C
2010
to
connect
WMO
and
MOP
reports.
Montreal Protocol
2014
international cooperation
How to quantify: Correlation of Topics
An example: Scientific paper (CiNii) vs Newspaper (Nikkei)
Keywords:
CFC, refrigerator
Summary and future works
(of Information Processing Group)
Objective: Quantification of relationship between Policy and Satellite Observation
Using Latent Dirichlet Allocation, Topics are extracted from the documents.
“CFC” and “bromine ” are the keywords that are included in both Topics (WMO and MOP).
Establishment of “quantification” of Topics that have different fields is in execution.
Problems
Policy is connected with “ozone” but not yet with Satellite Observation.
Method of ozone measurement is not only satellite observation.
There are other way of ground-based and balloon-based measurement.
Future works
Extract Topics of other policy documents (MOP, COP and ORM)
Keep going of establishment of “quantification”