Campaigns and Voting Behavior
Chapter 8
Introduction
• POTUS most difficult job in
the world.
• Campaign process puts
candidates under more stress
than they could ever face in
the White House.
▫ Trial by fire
▫ Hard on politicians
• Focus of this chapter:
Campaign Process
The Nomination Game
• Nomination:
▫ The official endorsement of a candidate for office
by a political party.
▫ Anyone can run, but only a few can win. Why?
• Campaign Strategy:
▫ The master plan candidates lay out to guide their
electoral campaign.
The Nomination Game
• Deciding to run
▫ Campaigns are physically and emotionally taxing.
▫ Most advanced countries have short campaigns.
 Generally, less than 2 months long.
▫ U.S. campaigns can last 18 months or longer.
• Competing for Delegates
▫ Goal: Win the majority of delegates support at the
national party convention.
▫ 2 ways: Caucuses and primaries
The Nomination Game
• The Caucus Road:
▫ Caucus: meeting of state party leaders.
▫ Now, organized like a pyramid from local
precincts to state convention.
▫ Not used by many states
▫ Iowa caucus is first and considered the most
important.
 Can boost a campaign
 Campaign can fall apart
Iowa Republican Caucus 2012
The Nomination Game
• The Primary Road:
▫ Primary: elections in which voters choose a
nominee or delegates pledged to the nominee.
▫ Democratic Party’s 1968 national convention.
 Demanded a more open process.
 McGovern-Fraser Commission
▫ Most states use primaries
▫ New Hampshire is first.
 frontloading
The Nomination Game
• Evaluating the Primary and Caucus System:
▫ Disproportionate attention to the early ones.
▫ Prominent politicians find it difficult t make time
to run.
▫ Money plays too big a role.
▫ Participation in primaries and caucuses is low and
unrepresentative.
▫ System gives too much power to media
The Nomination Game
• The inflated importance of Iowa & N.H. (fig. 8.1)
The Nomination Game
• The Convention Send-off
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Once provided great drama for American politics.
Now, winner is foregone conclusion.
Still serve as a rally point for the party.
Party platform: statement of its goals and policies
and general beliefs.
▫ Official nomination and candidate speeches.
The Nomination Game
The Campaign Game
• After being nominated, candidates concentrate
on the general election.
• Campaigns involve organization & leadership
• Campaign also involves portraying the right
image.
▫ Campaign organization
▫ Money
▫ Media attention
The Campaign Game
• Organizing the Campaign:
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Get a campaign manager
Get a fund-raiser & counsel
Hire media and campaign consultants
Assemble staff/plan the logistics
Get a research staff, policy advisors, and pollsters
Get a good press secretary
Establish a website
Money and Campaigning
• The Maze of Campaign Finance Reforms:
▫ Federal Election Campaign Act (1974):
 Created the Federal Election Commission to
administer campaign finance laws
 Provided partial public financing for presidential
primaries (matching funds)
 Provided full public financing for major party
candidates in general elections.
 Required full disclosure
 Limited contributions
Money and Campaigning
• 1979, Act amended:
▫ Allowed political parties to raise soft money
▫ Soft money- contributions used for party-building
expenses or generic party advertising.
• McCain-Feingold Act (2002):
▫ Banned soft money, increased amount of money
individuals could donate, and limited “issue ads.”
Money and Campaigning
• The Decline in Income Tax Check-Off Participation for Federal Financing of
Campaigns.
Money and Campaigning
• The Proliferation of PACs
▫ Definition: created by law in 1974 to allow
corporations, labor unions and others to donate
money to campaigns.
▫ As of 2004, there were 3,868 PACs.
▫ PACs contributed over $258 million to
congressional candidates in 2002.
▫ Not sufficient data that PACs “buy” candidates.
Money and Campaigning
Money and Campaigning
• Does Money Buy Victories?
▫ Money is crucial to winning important offices.
▫ “more incumbents spend, worse they do.”
 Means they spend more in tough races
▫ Candidates need just “enough” money to win, not
necessarily “more.”
The Media and the Campaign
• Media Matters:
▫ Media coverage determined by:
 How candidates use advertising budget.
 The “free” attention they get as the newsmakers.
▫ About ½ budget for POTUS campaign used on
T.V. ads.
The Impact of Campaigns
• Campaigns have three effects on voters:
▫ Reinforcement, Activation, Conversion
• Mostly, they only reinforce & activate
• Factors that weaken campaigns effect on voters:
▫ Selective perception
▫ Party identification still has an affect
▫ Incumbents start with a substantial advantage
Whether To Vote: A Citizen’s First
Choice.
• Although the right to vote has expanded, U.S.
typically has low voter turnouts.
• Barriers to voter turnout:
▫ Small chance one vote will decide election.
▫ Voting is costly
▫ The lack of political efficacy (belief that ordinary
people can influence the government)
▫ Civic Duty: the belief that citizens should vote to
support a democratic government.
Whether to Vote: A Citizen’s First
Choice
• The Decline in voter turnout 1892-2004.
Whether to Vote: A Citizen’s First
Choice
• Registering To Vote:
▫ Voter Registration: A system adopted by the states
that requires voters to register well in advance of
the election day.
▫ Registration procedures differ from state-to-state.
▫ Motor Voter Act (1993)
 Requires states to allow eligible voters to register
when they apply for a driver’s license.
Whether to Vote: A Citizen’s First
Choice
• Who Votes?
▫ Education
 People with higher than average education levels
have higher rates of voting.
▫ Age
 Older= more likely to vote
▫ Race
 Caucasian = more likely to vote. BUT, other
ethnicities are higher with comparable education.
▫ Gender
 Female=more likely to vote
Whether to Vote: A Citizen’s First
Choice
• Who Votes? (continued)
▫ Marital Status: Married = more likely to vote.
▫ Union Membership: Union member = more likely
to vote.
▫ Traits are cumulative - possessing several adds up.
Whether to Vote: A Citizen’s First
Choice
How Americans Vote:
Explaining Citizens’ Decisions
• Mandate Theory of Elections
▫ The idea that the winning candidate has a
mandate from the people to carry out his or her
platforms and politics.
▫ Politicians like the theory better than political
scientists do.
▫ Political Scientists focus on 3 major elements of
voter’s decisions:
 Voters’ party identification, voters’ evaluation of
candidates, policy voting
How Americans Vote:
Explaining Citizens’ Decisions
• Party Identification
▫ People generally vote for a party they agree with.
▫ Rise of candidate-centered politics has changed
this view.
▫ Now many voters are individualistic.
 floating voters
▫ Characteristics of each candidate have become
more important than party.
How Americans Vote:
Explaining Citizens’ Decisions
• Candidate Evaluations:
▫ Candidates want a good visual image.
▫ Most important dimensions are
 Integrity
 Reliability
 Competence.
▫ Personality still plays a role.
How Americans Vote:
Explaining Citizens’ Decisions
• Policy Voting:
▫ Basing your vote choice on issue preferences.
▫ Must know where they and the candidates stand
on issues and see differences between candidates.
• Obstacles
▫ Candidates often ambiguous on issues.
▫ Media only focuses on the “horse race” aspects of
campaigns.
▫ Today, candidates are forced to take clear policy
stands to appeal to their own party’s primary
voters.
The Last Battle: The Electoral
College
• The Electoral College, not the popular vote,
determines who becomes president.
• The founders wanted the president to be selected
by the country’s elite.
• States choose the electors
• Since 1828, vote of members of Electoral College
have been responsive to popular majorities.
The Last Battle: The Electoral
College
• How it works today:
▫ Each state has as many electoral votes as it has
U.S. Senators & Representatives
▫ Winner-take-all system
 Except Maine and Nebraska
▫ Electors meet in December, votes are reported
by the vice president in January.
▫ If no candidate gets 270 votes (a majority), the
House of Representatives votes for president,
with each state getting ONE vote.