The
NOAA/NWS
Storm Prediction
Center
All
TORNADO and SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCHES
for the
Contiguous United States
“Particularly Dangerous Situation” Watches
Tornado Watches:
Multiple strong or violent
(F2 – F5 damage) events
Severe Thunderstorm Watches:
Long lived wind events
(derechoes)
ZCZC MKCSEL9 ALL 250500;365,0980 321,0985 321,1013 365,1004;
WWUS9 KMKC 242144
MKC WW 242144
OKZ000-TXZ000-250500URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 49
STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
344 PM CST THU FEB 24 2000
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN OKLAHOMA
NORTHWESTERN TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 430 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CST.
...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...
DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
WATCH PROBABILITIES
Official Product – 3rd Quarter FY-06
Severe Thunderstorm Watch 688 Probability Table
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F4) tornadoes
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
Low (10%)
Low (<5%)
Mod (60%)
Probability of 1 or more wind event > 65 knots
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
Low (10%)
Probability of 1 or more hailstones >2 inches
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe wind/hail events
Low (<5%)
Low (10%)
Mod (60%)
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKS
Day 1 – 5 times/day; Day 2 – 2 times a day; Day 3 – once a day;
Experimental Composite Day 4-8
MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS
TECHNICAL DISCUSSIONS
OF DEVELOPING MESOSCALE FEATURES
AND THEIR IMPACT ON HAZARDOUS WEATHER
WHERE, WHEN, WHAT, WHY
EMPHASIS ON THE SHORT TERM OUTLOOK
WRITTEN IN PLAIN LANGUAGE
GEARED FOR THE PROFESSIONAL METEOROLOGIST
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1902 NWS STORM PREDICTION
CENTER NORMAN OK 0212 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2005
AREAS AFFECTED...INTERIOR SRN CA AND FAR SRN NV
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL
VALID 301912Z - 302145Z
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS THE IMPERIAL
VALLEY OF CA AND THE ADJACENT MTNS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL ALSO OCCUR WITH ANTICIPATED SLOW
MOTION OF INDIVIDUAL CELLS. SURFACE MOISTURE
AXIS...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...EXTENDS
NNNWD FROM GULF OF CA INTO THE IMPERIAL VALLEY OF
CA AND ERN SLOPES OF THE COASTAL RANGES. LOWLEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE NWD INTO THE
Winter Weather
Freezing Rain, Rapidly Accumulating Snow, Blizzards
Heavy Rainfall
Severe Thunderstorm Potential/Outlook Upgrade
1-2 hours prior to a watch
2-3 hour cycle during watch
Change in Convective Outlook Category
Thunderstorms not expected to become severe
The Watch/Warning Funnel Concept
Thunderstorm, Fire Weather,
Severe Weather OUTLOOKS
Detailed Mesoscale
DISCUSSIONS
SVR/TOR
WATCHES
WARN
SPC
Products
Local NWS
Products (WFO)
FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOKS
1 and 2 Day Forecasts – Experimental through Day 8
Weather Conditions Conducive to Wildfires
National Fire Weather Product
Provide Basic Guidance
Aid Fire Managers in Allocating Resources
Show what is Happening in Other Regions
Critical and Extremely Critical Fire Danger Areas
(Based on Fuel Availability)
Significant Dry Lightning
(100 or more strokes per 100,000 sq. mi.)
• Graphic Depicting Critical and Extremely Critical Fire Areas
• Technical Discussion Accompanying Forecast
• Issued at 4 am Central Time
FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOKS
Official through Day 2
Experimental Day 3 through Day 8
SPC NON-FORECAST PRODUCTS:
REAL-TIME SEVERE EVENT SUMMARIES
Last 3 Hours
Today
Yesterday
CLIMATOLOGICAL SUMMARIES
Monthly Tornado Totals
Fatality Counts
Cause of Tornado Deaths
WATCH/WARNING ADVISORY CHART
FIRE-WEATHER GUIDANCE
MESOSCALE AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM EVENT DATABASES
NOAA Hazardous Weather Test Bed
• Objectives
– Advance the science of weather forecasting and prediction of severe
convective weather consistent with NOAA strategic goals
– Enhance collaboration between researchers and forecasters on topics of
mutual interest through real-time forecasting and evaluation activities during
active severe weather
– Provide for efficient testing and subsequent delivery of program results to SPC
and NWS operations
Disciplined collaboration to advance forecast operations
SPC Strengths
• SPECIALIZED FOCUS
– Forecasters deal ONLY with Mesoscale Hazardous Weather
– 24 Hours a Day, 365 Days a Year, Entire Continental U.S.
• COMMITMENT
– Maintain Continuous Weather Watch
– Training, Proficiency Checks, “Certification”
• EXPERTISE
– Internationally recognized as Experts
– Actively Pursue Improvements in Forecasting
www.spc.noaa.gov
© K. Dewey, High Plains Regional Climate Center
02/02/04
“Where America’s Weather and Climate Services Begin”