NOAA Hazardous Weather Test Bed
• Objectives
(SPC, OUN, NSSL)
– Advance the science of weather forecasting and prediction of severe
convective weather
– Enhance collaboration between researchers and forecasters on topics of
mutual interest through real-time forecasting and evaluation activities during
active severe weather
– Provide for efficient testing and subsequent delivery of program results to NWS
operations
Disciplined Collaboration to Advance Forecast Operations
Primary Objectives of EFP Spring Experiment 2008
(Experimental Forecast Program)
• Test and refine a real-time, large domain convection-allowing Storm Scale Ensemble Forecast (SSEF)
• Explore the relative impact of assimilating radar reflectivity and velocity data into SSEF members
• Determine strengths and limitations of the ensemble configuration
•Test ways to extract information from the SSEF and deterministic WRF models
•Develop product display techniques that provide forecasters with probabilistic guidance
•Transfer SSEF guidance products to SPC forecaster workstations
•Assess the utility of high resolution convection-allowing deterministic WRF models
•Explore relationship between model forecasts of convective storms and the mesoscale environment
•Test the NCAR-WRF-3DVAR data assimilation system
•Test new objective verification measures
• Provide focused feedback to model developers on performance severe thunderstorm episodes
Primary Objectives of EWP Spring Experiment 2008
(Experimental Warning Program)
•Operational evaluation of the phased array radar (PAR)
•Operational evaluation of networked 3-cm radars (CASA) in Central Oklahoma
•Operational evaluation of experimental high temporal and spatial resolution gridded hazard
information (a.k.a. gridded probabilistic warnings)
2007 & 2008 HWT Experimental Forecast Program (EFP)
CAPS 4-km 10-member ensemble
Pittsburgh Supercomputing Center
CAPS 2-km run
Sensitivity to horizontal grid spacing
3 Separate WRF forecasts (Different Model Physics)
NCAR 3-km
EMC 4-km
NSSL 4-km
Slightly Different Domains
CAPS 4-km domain for Ensemble
4km NCAR WRF
4.5 km NMM WRF
2 km CAPS WRF
RADAR VERIFICATION
Probability of a Linear Configuration
of Thunderstorms (e.g., a Squall Line)
Simulated Reflectivity Cores (> 40 dBz)
from
Different Ensemble Members.
NOAA HAZARDOUS WEATHER TESTBED
SPC-NSSL Experimental Forecast Program (EFP) Spring Experiment
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FY-1996: Winter Weather Short Term Forecasts (NSSL, WFO OUN)
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FY-1997: Winter Short Term Advisories (NSSL, WFO OUN)
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FY-1998: Fire Weather
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FY-1999: Fire Weather (NSSL)
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FY-2000: Convective Initiation (NSSL, FSL, EMC)
FY-2001: Watch Lead Time (NSSL, FSL, EMC, ISU)
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FY-2002: IHOP- impact of moisture pattern on convective development (NSSL, etc)
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FY-2003: Operational use of Short Range Ensembles (NSSL, FSL, EMC, BMO ... )
FY-2004: Use of High resolution WRF Model (NSSL, CAPS, NCAR, EMC, FSL)
FY-2005: Three Ultra-High Resolution WRF to see Storm Structure (NSSL, CAPS, EMC,NCAR)
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FY-2006 Operational Test and Evaluation of β-version WRF (NSSL)
FY-2007 and 2008 10-member Ensemble of Cloud Resolving Models (CAPS)
– ARPS Evaluation (NSSL, CAPS, WFO OUN)
– SCAN Day 3 Outlook (NSSL, NCAR, MDL, WFO LWX)
– SAMEX - ensemble forecasting (NSSL, EMC, CAPS ...)
– MEaPRS - MCS, Dual Polarity Radar, Electrification (NSSL, NCAR, etc.)
– SCAN Day 3 Outlook (NSSL, NCAR, MDL, WFO LWX)
– SCAN Day 3 Outlook (NSSL, NCAR, MDL, WFO LWX)
– Probabilistic Convective Outlook (NSSL)
– STEP - cloud electrification in Kansas (NSSL, OU, NCAR)
– PTEX - precipitation type (NSSL, HPC)
– Operational & Experimental NWP Evaluation (NSSL, EMC, FSL)
– Operational Hi-RES WRF Window WRF in 2005
NOAA HAZARDOUS WEATHER TESTBED
OUN-NSSL Experimental Warning Program (EWP) Experiment
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FY-1979 thru 1990: Many Joint Projects including
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FY 1991- thru 1995: Modernization and Risk Reduction Project (FSL)
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FY-1994: VORTEX (NSSL, NSSFC)
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FY-1996 thru 2001: WDSS Operational test and evaluation (NSSL)
FY-2001: Weather Event Simulator (WES) Field Test (WDTB, FSL, SRH)
FY-2002: Advanced AWIPS prototype project. (SRH)
FY-2002 thru 2005: Operational test and evaluation of WDSS II radar display workstation. (NSSL)
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FY-2003: JPOLE (NSSL), Enhanced Graphical Hazard Depiction (FSL)
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FY-2004: Develop Situation Awareness (SA) Display System (WDTB)
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FY-2005: Polarimetric radar sensitivity (FSL); multi-sensor Severe Weather Algorithm (NSSL)
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FY-2006 thru 2008 Impact of Potential New Systems (12-15 out-of-town forecasters)
– NEXRAD IOT&E II , JDOP, DOPLIGHT, COPS, MAPS, QED, STORMTIPE
– Experimental Forecast Facility
– Nowcast and Forecast Support
– Establish operational utility of Terminal Doppler Weather Radar (TDWR)
– Test 4D base radar data analysis tool with interactive dynamic cross-sections and CAPPIs
– Establish operational utility of polarimetric base moments and derived rainfall estimates
– Refine FX-Connect application to construct graphical weather hazard graphics on AWIPS
– First NWS SA Display
– operational impact of 3 dB sensitivity loss compared to WSR-88D
– new hail diagnosis, “rotation tracks”, and 3D Lightning Mapping
– Assess phased array radar, CASA 3cm radar network, gridded probabilistic warnings
HWT Growth Potential
www.spc.noaa.gov
www.srh.noaa.gov/oun
www.nssl.noaa.gov