“(Supporter) Governor, you have the
vote of every thinking person.
(Stevenson) That’s not enough madam,
We need a majority”
By Loren Miller
Election Fraud ?
TYPES OF BALLOTS
• Australian Ballot: a secret ballot that is prepared, distributed
and counted by the government; used in all elections since
1888.
– This replaced oral voting or using different colored ballots prepared by the
political parties.
• Office-Block Ballot: all candidates for the same office are
grouped under the title of that office. Parties don’t like this as it
emphasizes the office and not the party and also discourages
straight-party voting.
TYPES OF BALLOTS
• Party Column Ballot: all of a party’s candidates are arranged in
one column under the party label and symbol. This encourages
straight-party voting.
• Voting By Mail: used for absentee ballots; Oregon uses this
exclusively; they do not have any polling places.
THE NOMINATION PROCESS
1. Defining Possible Candidates and Leading
Contenders
(The Invisible Primary)
2. The Primaries and Delegate Selection
(Initial Contests and Mist Clearing)
3. The Convention
THE NOMINATION PROCESS
Defining Possible Candidates and Leading
Contenders (Testing the Waters)
“No one wants to back a loser”
Key Money Raisers (“Fat Cats”)
• Hollywood Influentials
• Media Commentary
• Party Influentials
• Interest Groups
•
THE NOMINATION PROCESS
Testing the Waters in 2012:
Mitt Romney
Rick Santorum
Newt Gingrich
Ron Paul
Rick Perry
Michelle Bachmann
Herman Cain
Donald Trump
Invisible Primary, 2011
THE NOMINATION PROCESS
The Primaries and Delegate Selection
Primaries and Caucus
•
Importance of primaries:
• In 1912
12 Democratic
• In 1980
31 Democratic
• In 2012
38 Democratic
13 Republican
35 Republican
39 Republican
PRIMARIES
• Closed Primary: only declared members of the party can vote
in the party’s primary.
• Open Primary: any voter can vote in either party’s primary
without declaring a party affiliation.
• Blanket Primary: a voter can vote for candidates of more than
one party.
• Run-Off Primary: if no candidate receives a majority of votes,
the top two must compete in another primary.
• “Top Two” Primary: all candidates appear on the same ballot
and the top two run in the general election.
CAUCUSES
• A party meeting held where voters can select
delegates to attend a convention.
– In Texas, the night of the primary the parties hold
conventions. Delegates are selected at the precinct
convention to attend the county or district convention and
this convention would select delegates to attend the state
convention where delegates are selected for the national
convention.
When States Select Delegates
January
February
March
April
May
June
2000
2004
2008
2012*
*Many states had their selection process
delayed because of redistricting challenges
THE NOMINATION PROCESS
The Primaries and Delegate Selection
Primaries and Caucus
•
Until 1968
• delegates selected by party leaders
• all states are important
• party dominated
THE NOMINATION PROCESS
The Primaries and Delegate Selection
Primaries and Caucus
•
Since 1968
• candidate dominated
• most delegates selected by primaries
• early states are important
• closed conventions
THE NOMINATION PROCESS
The Convention
Purpose
2016:
R: Cleveland
D: Philadelphia
• Role of the media
• Cross-section of the American public?
• Likelihood of deadlock?
• Post-convention “surge”
DECLINING COVERAGE
Series 1
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Coverage on NBC, ABC and CBS
THE NOMINATION PROCESS
40
Week of the
year that the
candidate won
a majority of
delegates
35
30
25
20
15
10
Democratic
Nominee
5
Republican
Nominee
0
1972
1980
1988
1996
2004
2008
2012
THE ELECTION
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Before Primaries
Before Labor Day
A Majority of American
Voters Decide How to
Vote Before the Fall
Campaign Begins.
Many decide even
before the primaries.
THE ELECTION
Voters who
supported Romney
(in %)
Voters who
supported Obama
(in %)
Column1
Column1
Democrat
Republican
Independent
45
92
8
50
93
7
2012 Election
THE MONEY FACTOR
2500
2000
1500
1000
1990
1400
500
710
0
80
100
100
200
195
250
350
1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012
In Millions
THE MONEY FACTOR
Obama
Romney
110
92
225
400
289
379
351
333
Under $200
More Than $200
Democratic Party
Super PACs
Under $200
MoreThan $200
Republican Party
Super PACs
THE MONEY FACTOR
Presidential candidates may receive public
funding
--
if you receive public funding, then you are
limited as to the amount that you can spend
THE MONEY FACTOR
The Federal Election Commission limits the
maximum individual contribution to federal
candidates
-- in 2008 the maximum was $2,300
-- every year this figure is adjusted for inflation
-- small donors typically make up a small proportion
of the money raised by a candidate (less than
20%)
-- there are no limits for a candidate to “self-finance”
their campaign
THE MONEY FACTOR
527s: (from a section of the IRS Code)
-- organizations (individuals and PACs) may finance
issue ads that advocate a particular policy but
may not endorse a specific candidate
-- there is no limit to the size of contributions to
these groups
THE MONEY FACTOR
Political Action Committees (PACs):
-- corporations and unions as well as trade and
professional groups form PACs
-- in 2010 the Supreme Court ruled that corporations
and unions were “people” and that there could be
no limit on the amount of money that they could
spend to “advocate or electioneering”
Citizens United v. FEC
Super Pac Donors
Republican Donors:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
10 m.
10 m.
10 m.
2.8 m.
2.3 m.
2.2 m.
Sheldon Adelson (Casino owner)
Miriam Adelson
Bob Perry (Houston homebuilder)
Oxbow Carbon LLC (oil and gas [Koch])
Harold Simmons (Dallas billionaire)
Julian Robertson (hedge fund company)
Democratic Donors:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
3.5 m.
3.5 m.
3.0 m.
2.0 m.
2.0 m.
2.0 m.
Fred Eychaner (Chicago media mogul)
James Simons (hedge fund company
Jeffrey Katzenburg (Dreamworks Animation)
Pipefitters Union
Irwin Jacobs (Qualcomm)
Jon Stryker (Gay rights activist)
Super Pac Funds
Restore our Future
American Crossroads
Priorities USA Action
Winning our Future
Club for Growth
American Bridge
Red, White & Blue
AFL-CIO
Congressional Leadership
Make Us Great Again
Con-Romney
Con
Lib-Obama
Con-Gingrich
Con
Lib
Con-Santorum
Lib
Con
Con-Perry
96.7m
56.8m
35.6m
23.9m
13.8m
8.6m
8.3m
7.1m
6.5m
5.6m
THE ELECTION
THE ELECTION
The Electoral College
Why??
How do we choose a president without political
parties (they were frowned upon), without
national campaigns (the office seeks the person
rather than the person seeks the office), and
without upsetting the balance between the
executive and legislative branches and the
national and state governments?
THE ELECTION
The Electoral College
Why??
Have Congress choose the president:
This would lead to hard feelings among members of Congress and
would lead to unsightly political bargaining
Have the state legislatures choose the president:
This would lead to an erosion of federal authority as the president
would be too beholding to certain states
Have the president elected by direct popular vote:
People would not be aware of a candidate who was not local and
would vote for their “favorite son” and no person would emerge
with a popular majority.
Finally, the “Committee of Eleven” proposed an indirect election of
the president through a College of Electors.
THE ELECTION
The Electoral College
The Electoral College was expected to be composed of “free
electors” who could vote for anyone. The person who
came in first would become president and the runner-up
would be vice-president.
If nobody had a majority of votes, then the election would go
into the House. Our Founding Fathers expected that almost
all elections would be determined in the House of
Representatives as they expected many candidates to
receive electoral votes.
This worked well until the formation of political parties. By
1796, the electors were no longer “free electors” but had
become “partisan electors.”
THE ELECTION
The Electoral College
Each state has the number of electors equal to the
number of their members in the House and the
Senate
H + S = # of Electors
(Texas) 36 + 2 = 38 Electors
(USA) 435 + 100 + 3 (DC) = 538 Electors
A majority of 538 (270) is needed to win
THE ELECTION
The Electoral College
•
The objective is to obtain 270 electoral votes
•
Instead of 1 presidential election, we have 51 separate
presidential elections
•
To win Texas’s electoral vote, the candidate must obtain
a plurality of popular votes in the state
•
So where does a candidate campaign??
•
In 2004, 82% of party resources were spent in only 9 states.
The Battleground States
2012
New Hampshire (4)
Virginia (13)
North Carolina (15)
Ohio (18)
Iowa (6)
Colorado (9)
Nevada (6)
Florida (29)
Wisconsin (10)
(110)
http://www.270towin.com
The Battleground States
2012
96% of the spending on television ads between
April 11th and November 6th by presidential
campaigns and allied groups went to the
battleground states.
99% of the campaign stops by the presidential or
vice-presidential candidates were in the
battleground states.
How Presidents and Vice
Presidents are Chosen
Acetate P–2
POPULAR VOTE VS.
ELECTORAL VOTE
Winner’s
Winner’s
Electoral Vote Popular Vote
Election
Year
President
1956
Eisenhower
86.1
57.4
1960
Kennedy
58.0
49.7
1964
LB Johnson
90.3
61.6
1968
Nixon
55.9
43.4
1972
Nixon
96.7
60.7
1976
Carter
55.2
50.1
POPULAR VOTE VS.
ELECTORAL VOTE
Winner’s
Winner’s
Electoral Vote Popular Vote
Election
Year
President
1980
Reagan
90.9
50.7
1984
Reagan
97.4
59.8
1988
Bush
79.0
53.4
1992
Clinton
68.8
43.2
1996
Clinton
70.4
49.2
2000
GW Bush
50.1
49.8
POPULAR VOTE VS.
ELECTORAL VOTE
Winner’s
Winner’s
Electoral Vote Popular Vote
Election
Year
President
2004
GW Bush
53.2
51.2
2008
Obama
67.8
53.3
2012
Obama
61.7
52.5
Robin Williams
THE ELECTION
The Electoral College
The Electoral College has reversed the outcome
three times:
1876 (Hayes v. Tilden), 1888 (Harrison v.
Cleveland), 2000 (Bush v. Gore).
The House of Representatives has decided two
elections:
1800 (Jefferson v. Burr), 1824 (Adams v. Jackson
v. Clay)
In 18 of 56 presidential elections (Washington to
Obama), the winning candidate did not have a
majority of popular votes.
THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE
The Electoral College violates democratic principles:
State
Electoral Votes
Population
+/- Represented
CA
TX
NY
FL
IL
55
38
29
29
20
37.34m
25.27m
19.42m
18.90m
12.86m
-15.4%
-13.6%
-14.2%
-11.8%
-10.7%
WY
DC
VT
ND
AK
3
3
3
3
3
0.57m
0.60m
0.63m
0.68m
0.72m
+203.4%
+186.5%
+173.5%
+155.1%
+138.9%
ELECTORAL COLLEGE
REFORMS
•
Direct Popular Vote
•
Proportional Voting
•
District Plan
DISTRICT PLAN
3 Districts = 5 Electoral Votes
R = 110
D = 95
R = 100
D = 85
R = 75
D = 110
Used in Maine and Nebraska
CAMPAIGN STRATEGIES
Select a Theme:
-- most campaign themes are not issue
oriented, but are focused on a candidates’
personal qualities or image
-----
“Change we can believe in”
“Stay the course”
“Fights for the taxpayer”
“Cares about you”
-- Themes must be stated in concise and
catchy sound bites
JibJab
CAMPAIGN STRATEGIES
Negative Campaigning:
-- a media campaign seeks to define the opponent in
negative terms
-- the first negative ad was made by Lyndon Johnson in
1964 and paints his opponent, Barry Goldwater, as an
irresponsible person who is likely to use nuclear weapons
in Vietnam (Daisy Girl)
-- John Kerry, a decorated veteran of the Vietnam
conflict (one Silver Star, a Bronze Star and three Purple
Hearts) was accused of supplying aid and comfort to the
North Vietnamese by speaking about American atrocities
committed during the war (Swift Boat)
CAMPAIGN STRATEGIES
Negative Campaigning:
)1. Advertise early if you have the money.
2. Go negative early, often, and right through election day.
3. Appeal to the heart and gut, rather than to the head.
4. Define your opponent to the voters before he or she can define
him/herself or you.
5. If attacked, hit back harder.
6. It’s easier to give voters a negative impression of your opponent
than it is to improve their image of you.
Going Negative
Campaign Ads: Presidential
70
62
60
50
50
40
40
30
40
35
30
30
25
25
25
23
20
15
10
0
2000
2004
Negative
2008
Contrast
Positive
2012
CAMPAIGN STRATEGIES
News Management:
-- News coverage of the candidate is more credible than
paid advertisements
-- Campaigns are planned to get the maximum
favorable “free” exposure on the evening news
-- So each day a candidate must do something newsworthy
and provide good photo ops
Law Enforcement
Military
Education
CAMPAIGN STRATEGIES
Paid Advertising:
-- paid spots on television are usually only 15 or 30
seconds long
-- television time is expensive
-- little attention is paid to issues; instead the ads focus on
emotions
Biographical
Backfire
Backfire
Commander in Chief
Dole
Kerry
Obama
Bush/Quayle
IMPACT OF CAMPAIGNING
Is a good campaign the key to victory?
-- probably not
What is the purpose of a campaign?
-- reinforce voters’ preferences for candidates
-- activate voters to contribute money or ring
doorbells
-- convert voters to your candidate
IMPACT OF CAMPAIGNING
Most people pay little attention to campaigns
and those who do have selective perception
Long-term factors, like party identification,
influence voting behavior regardless of the
campaign
Incumbents start with a substantial advantage
in terms of name recognition and a track
record
Voter Turnout
In Texas, turnout is higher in presidential
elections than in nonpresidential
elections—this follows the national trend.
The voter turnout in Texas falls well below
the national average. Why?
Long ballot and lack of information about
candidates and issues
Voter fatigue (too many elections)
Negative campaigning
Low levels of educational attainment
Low per capita income
High rate of poverty
Young population
Little party competition
Texas Turnout
Voter Turnout By State in 2012
(as % of Voting Eligible Population)
Highest Turnout
Lowest Turnout
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
41.
42.
43.
44.
45.
46.
47.
48.
49.
50.
Minnesota
76.1%
Wisconsin**
73.2%
Colorado**
71.1%
New Hampshire**70.9%
Iowa**
70.2%
Maine
69.2%
Virginia**
66.9%
Maryland
66.8%
Massachusetts 66.6%
Michigan
65.3%
Kentucky
New Mexico
New York
Arizona
Tennessee
Arkansas
Texas
Oklahoma
West Virginia
Hawaii
55.9%
54.9%
53.6%
53.3%
52.6%
51.0%
50.1%
49.6%
46.8%
44.5%
Five of the ten states with the highest turnout have some form of election day registration.
Five of the ten states with the highest turnout were swing states.**
Average turnout in the 10 swing states was 7.2% higher than in the non-swing states.
Five of the lowest turnout states are considered solidly Democratic or solidly Republican and
have more burdensome registration requirements.
Early Voting
Thirty-two states have some form of early voting.
In Texas, early voting begins two weeks prior to the
election and ends four days before the election.
Early Voting (Texas):
2004
23%
2008
31%
2012
35%
Older voters prefer to vote early, while younger
persons prefer to vote in-person on election day.
Election Day Registration
Election day registration allows voters to register
or update their registration at the polls on Election
Day and then cast a regular ballot.
States with EDR have consistently higher voter
participation rates
In 2012, states with EDR had an average turnout
of 71.3%; this was 12.5% higher than the
turnout in states without EDR.
All EDR states had voter turnout above the
national average.
Election Day Registration
States that allow election day registration:
Colorado
California
Connecticut
Hawaii
Idaho
Illinois
Iowa
Maine
Minnesota
Montana
New Hampshire
Vermont
Wisconsin
Wyoming
2013
2016
2012
2018
1994
2014
2007
1973
1974
2005
1996
2015
1975
1994
THE CHANGING AMERICAN VOTER
(%)
40
35
30
25
Other non-White
Asian
Hispanic
African American
20
15
10
5
0
1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2032
ELIGIBILITY AND TURNOUT
(%)
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Eligible
Turnout
1828
1852
1876
1892
1924
1948
1972
2000
Who Voted in 2012
100%
90%
80%
70%
47
M
10
H
13
B
16
65+
38
45-64
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
53
F
72
W
29
I
≥ 50
32
R
27
30-44
38
D
10%
19-29
21
30-50
≤ 20
K
0%
Gender
Race
Age
Party
Income