Harvest 2015: What Can We Expect
Charles R. Hurburgh
Agricultural and Biosystems Engineering
September 15, 2015
page 1
page 2
page 3
page 4
page 5
page 6
Production (2015 as of 9/01/2015)
Yield (bu/a)
2014
Billion bu_____
2015
2014
2015
14.22
13.58
2.37
2.41
Corn
USA
Iowa
171.0
167.5
178
181
Soybeans
USA
Iowa
47.8
47.1
3.97
3.94
51.5
53.0
0.51
0.53
page 7
Stocks (June 1) (Billion Bushels)
2014
2015
USA
3.85
4.45
Iowa
0.73
0.88 (~55% farm)
0.41
0.094
0.63
0.126 (~40% farm)
Corn
Soybeans
USA
Iowa
page 8
Storage Space (all grains)(billion bushels)
On Farm
Off Farm_____
2014
2015
2014
2015
USA
13.0
13.2
10.4
10.5
Iowa
2.1
2.1
1.4
1.4
page 9
Storage vs Crop, Iowa
2014
2015
Production
On hand
2.95
0.82
------3.77
2.94 (corn and soybeans)
1.01 (high – June)
------3.95 (billion bushels)
Storage
3.50
3.50
Balance
0.27
0.45
Grain likely outside for a short time
Usage = 200 – 240 MM Bu/month
page 10
Corn Quality –Scenarios for 2015
• Warm and Wet
– Large kernels, medium/low test weight, wet corn
– Fair to poor storage properties
– Maybe vomitoxin?
• Cool and Wet
– Large kernels, medium/low test weight, 20%+MC
– Poor storage properties
– Vomitoxin more likely
• Warm and Dry?!:
– Large kernels, medium/low test weight
Corn Quality Trends - Example
Year
Yield
bu/a
15%M
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
194.1
184.9
207.6
152.0
201.3
191.8
Test Weight Moisture Protein
lb/bu
%
%
as-is
15%M
15%M
54.0
57.6
58.7
60.1
57.0
55.0
25.6
14.3
16.8
16.5
19.8
20.3
7.6
6.7
7.2
8.2
6.9
6.6
Oil
%
15%M
Starch
%
15%M
Density
gm/cc
15%M
3.6
3.5
3.6
3.4
3.5
3.6
61.1
61.6
61.2
60.6
61.3
61.5
1.244
1.255
1.271
1.287
1.254
1.250
Plots are usually ~ 2 lbs/bu heavier than field run, ~ 2 % pts drier
4 strip trial tests, 20-40 hybrids/location; Adair, Black Hawk, Bremer, Palo Alto counties in Iowa
Soybean Quality –Scenarios for 2015
• Warm and Wet
– Large beans, slow drying plants, good protein
– Probably wetter beans/mixed beans at first.
• Cool and Wet:
– Large beans, wetter beans, composition?
- Beans rewet to 14-15%, slow to dry after that.
• Warm and Dry:
– Large beans, high protein, normal moisture
– Some later harvest fields.
More harvest beans this year?
Soybean Quality Trends - Example
Year
Yield
bu/ac
13%M
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
58.7
58.7
65.9
52.5
53.6
60.3
Moisture Protein
%
%
as-is
13%M
13.7
10.5
10.5
8.7
11.7
12.7
34.7
35.5
34.2
33.9
35.3
34.5
Oil
%
13%M
Fiber
%
13%M
Sum
%
13%M
18.5
18.5
18.4
19.9
19.4
18.8
4.9
4.8
4.9
4.8
4.7
4.9
53.2
54.0
52.6
53.8
54.6
53.3
4 strip trial tests, 20-40 varieties/location
Adair, Black Hawk, Bremer, Palo Alto counties in Iowa
Harvest 2015 – preparations
• Clean bins, aeration, dryers.
• Scout/evaluate before harvest.
– Mold (especially if storm damage)
– Lodging (Lots of disease pressure)
– Variability; breakage and FM if low TW.
• Corn – soybean balance may be hard to
estimate.
– More soybeans will complicate end of harvest
rush .
page 15
Harvest Basics
– Uniform drying and cooling (as best possible)
– Adequate aeration (0.1 + cfm/bu)
– Cooling cycle every 10-15 degree change
– Get below 40F as fast as possible
– Take out the center core of fines immediately
– Regular inspection, temperature monitoring
Temperature change is important (3 degrees)
– Stay within temperature-moisture guidelines
page 16
page 17
Corn Harvest 2015 - complexities
• 2014 carryover corn in fair condition
• Do not mix 2015 and 2014 in the same bin
– Neither mixing nor layering will work
• Rotate with 2015 crop or keep separate
• First 2 weeks +/- : Submit daily composite
samples. Can be out of dryer.
– Check grading accuracy
– Mycotoxin issue?
– Check Test Weight increase
page 18
Web-Based Training on Grain Storage
• Dryeration:
http://cai.iastate.edu/extension/dryeration/index.ht
ml
• Fan Performance:
http://cai.iastate.edu/extension/fanperformance/ind
ex.html
• Grain Aeration:
http://cai.iastate.edu/extension/grainaeration/index.
html
or go to www.iowagrain.org; link from there.
page 19
And Now There is FSMA!
• Animal Food to publish 9/17/2015
• Feed mills, ethanol plants, etc. must have:
– CGMP
– Hazard Analysis/Qualified Person
– Verified Preventive Control Plan
• Handling and Storage: Exempt - above only
• Supplier verification required – you are a risk for
users.
• Lots of materials will be available.
page 20
Creating a food safety/quality management system plan for a grain elevator.
GEAPS Three hour Workshop
Iowa State University Extension and Outreach
Workshop Outline
Brief Introduction: Dr. Charles Hurburgh
Time
The impact of the Food Safety Modernization Act on grain handling.
Instructor: Dr. Angela Shaw
30
Creating Food Safety Plans
- QMS Principles/structure related to FSMA
- Writing objectives and procedures that can be documented, and validated
Instructor(s):
30
Class exercise; designing a food safety hazard control procedure
Instructor: Connie Hardy
30
--Break—
20
Cross Compliance: Other procedures-driven market or regulatory needs that can be met
simultaneously.
Occupational Safety plans
Biosecurity/bioterror plans
Environmental compliance plans.
Pest control plans/sanitation
Instructor: Dr. Gretchen Mosher
30
Economics: How to figure costs and benefits of quality management systems.
Instructor:
page 21
GEAPS 530
Quality Management Systems for
Bulk Materials Handling Systems
Created and Taught By:
The Iowa Grain Quality Initiative
Iowa State University Extension
Charles R. Hurburgh, Jr., Professor
Gretchen A. Mosher, Assistant Professor
Howard E. Shepherd, Program Coordinator
User’s Guide to ISO 22000 Food Safety Management System
for the Grain Handling, Processing, Milling, and Baking Industries
Compiled for the Food Safety, Quality, Regulatory (FSQR) Committee of AACC International
by Charles Hurburgh, Jennifer Robinson, and Scott Jensen
Sample
text…
User’s Guide to ISO 22000 Food Safety Management System
for the Grain Handling, Processing, Milling, and Baking Industries
Compiled for the Food Safety, Quality, Regulatory (FSQR) Committee of AACC International
by Charles Hurburgh, Jennifer Robinson, and Scott Jensen
Special
callout
sections…
Food Safety Checklist Example
Part 1: Food Safety Program
Questions
Yes
Food Safety Program
1
A documented food safety program that incorporates Quality
Management Program has been implemented
2
The operation has designated someone to implement and oversee the
food safety program
Name______________________________________
3
All food safety documentation is located in one central location.
Where:_____________________________________
4
Records are kept for two years in an orderly manner.
5
A map of the facility and grounds is available.
Download in MS Word @
No
N/A
Documents,
filenames
Chapter 1
INTRODUCTION TO FOOD SAFETY
PREVENTIVE CONTROLS COURSE
File: FSPCA Ch01 Intro 2014 11 06
1
2
3
TABLE OF CONTENTS
4
5
Hazard Analysis and Preventive Controls for Animal Foods Course
Agenda
viii
6
Food Safety Preventive Controls Alliance (FSPCA) – Animal Food
Subcommittee (AFSC) ...............................................................................................................................iv
Consider having someone take this
Chapter 1: Introduction to Course ...........................................................................................................
1
training when
it is offered (next 1-2 yrs.)
7
Chapter 2: Food Safety Plan Overview ....................................................................................................TBD
8
9
Chapter 3: Current Good Manufacturing Practices and Other Prerequisite
Programs
TBD
ISU and others will have certified
instructors.
10
Chapter 4: Biological Food Safety Hazards
11
Chapter 5: Chemical and Physical Food Safety Hazards .........................................................................TBD
12
Chapter 6: Preliminary Steps in Developing a Food Safety Plan ............................................................TBD
13
Chapter 7: Hazard Analysis and Preventive Controls Determination.....................................................TBD
14
Chapter 8: Process Preventive Controls ..................................................................................................TBD
15
Chapter 9: Sanitation Preventive Controls ..............................................................................................TBD
16
Chapter 10: Supplier Preventive Controls ...............................................................................................TBD
17
Chapter 11: Recall Plan ............................................................................................................................TBD
18
19
20
21
22
23
Chapter 12: Verification and Validation Procedures...............................................................................TBD
Chapter 13: Recordkeeping Procedures ..................................................................................................TBD
Chapter 14: Regulation Overview – cGMP and Hazard Analysis and RiskBased Preventive Controls for ........................................................................................................Animal Food
Chapter 15: Resources for Food Safety Plans [May need to move after
Hazard Analysis] TBD
24
Chapter 16: Putting it All Together? Resources for Food Safety Plans...................................................TBD
25
26
Appendix 1: FDA Regulation on CGMPs and Hazard Analysis and Riskbased Preventive Controls for Animal Food (FSMA Sec. 103) ..........................................A1-1
27
Appendix 2: Food Safety Plan Worksheets .............................................................................................A2-1
28
Appendix 3: Food Safety Plan for Dry Animal Food Example .................................................................A3-1
29
Appendix 4: Food Safety Plan for Liquid Animal Food Example .............................................................A4-1
30
31
32
33
34
35
Appendix 5: Food Safety Plan for Minerals, Vitamins, & MicroIngredients in Animal Food Example ..................................................................................A5-1
Appendix 6: Food Safety Plan for Animal Co-products in Animal Food
Example................................................................................................................................A6-1
Appendix 7: Food Safety Plan for Plant Co-products in Animal Food
Example
A7-1
TBD
Summary
• Wet grain; lower and more variable test weight
possible. Other risks depend on weather from
here on. Watch out for harvest on warm days.
• Carryover 2014 will create complexities. Do
not mix years. Separate by high-low test
weight if you can. Composite samples!
• Some grain will be outside. Mix of corn and
soybeans at harvest may shift somewhat.
• Basic grain science principles still apply.
Where To Find Us…
Analytical Programs
Quality Management
Systems