Country Course on Analysis and Dissemination of
Population and Housing Census Data with Gender
Concern
24-28 October 2011, Jakarta, Indonesia
In-depth Analysis of Census Data on
Employment
Economically Active Population
or Labour Force
Labour Force or the Economically Active population is
defined as that part of the population that supplies and
willing to supply its labour for the production of economic
goods and services during the time reference period
chosen for investigation.
The labour force differs from the concept of working age
population. Working age population is the number of
persons in the population in a specified age group eg. 1564 years or 15 to 59 years.
Population
(20.4m)
Example
Labour Force
(49.5%)
Employed
(94.6%)
Male Female
(62.2%) (37.7%)
Not in Labor Force
(50.5%)
Unemployed
(5.4%)
Male Female
(44%) (56%)
3% Employer
57% Employee
30% Own account worker
10% Unpaid family worker
37% Full time students
38% Engaged in household work
16% Retired and old age
5% Disabled
4% Other
Labour Force Participation Rate
Male(67.8%); Female (33.2)
Sources of Employment/Labour Force Data
1.
2.
3.
Census of Population
Labour Force Surveys
Socio-economic Surveys
Concepts used in Collecting Data
1.
2.
3.
Gainful worker approach
Labour force approach
Labour utilization approach
1. Gainful Worker Approach
It is based on the idea that each person has more or less a stable
functional role either as a breadwinner or as house wife or
student etc. The main purpose of this concept was to
enumerate the occupation of the person. Thus persons seeking
work for the first time were left out of the labour force.
Unemployment and underemployment were of secondary
consideration. No reference period for data collection.
2. Labour Force Approach
The labour force approach was developed to remedy the
deficiencies of the gainful worker approach in the USA in 1930s.
It is an economic concept to capture the labour supply for
economic goods and services. It includes both the employed
and the unemployed. It specifies a minimum age and a definite
time reference period.
Labour Utilization Approach
Due to the large number of underemployed persons in the labour
force in developing countries, this approach has been developed to
measure the extent of underemployment. It uses the same
approach as in labour force in terms of minimum age limits and the
reference period but the classification of categories differ.
1. Adequately utilized
2. Inadequately Utilized
(a) unemployed
(b) inadequately utilized by hours of work
(c) inadequately utilized by level of income
(d) inadequately utilized by mismatch between
education and occupation
Persons falling to categories (b), (c) and (d) are the
underemployed. They are included under employed in the
labour force approach.
Limitations of Data
(a) Variation in length of time reference period
The size of the labour force could vary depending on the length
of the reference period as marginal members of the workforce
could be included if the reference period is too long.
(b) Variations in the definitions used
Variations in the definition of persons by employment status
particularly the unpaid family workers.
(c) Variations in age group covered by economic activity
The minimum age limit on economic activity is often set to
conform to the legal minimum age for paid employment and
compulsory school attendance.
(d) Changes in concepts and other limitations
- Different concepts used in measurement
- Errors in reporting occupation and age
- Problems of measuring primary and secondary
occupations
- Variations in the formulation of the questionnaire
- Selection of the dates for enumeration
- Problem of enumerating seasonal workers
Labour Supply
1. Births (the rate largely determines the supply at entry ages)
2. Deaths (before entry to the labour force and in working ages)
3. Migration (within working ages)
Labour Demand
•
•
•
Growth of Output
Growth of Productivity
Other
(a) Information and knowledge of job opportunities
(b) Attitudes and preferences
(c) Educational attainment and skills
(d) Compatibility between child bearing and child caring
roles
Rate
Male Labour Force Participation Rates in Japan,
2005
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65+
Age Group
Female Labour Force Participation Rates, 2001
50
Rate
40
30
20
10
0
10- 15- 20- 25- 30- 35- 40- 45- 50- 55- 60- 65+
14 19 24 29 34 39 44 49 54 59 64
Age Group
Female Labour Force Participation Rates in
Japan, 2005
80
Rate
60
40
20
0
15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65+
Age Group
Labour Force Participation Rates by Age and Sex,
In Sri Lanka-1971 and 2001
Age Group
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65+
1971
Male
Female
6.0
3.9
48.3
26.7
88.9
43.1
96.9
40.2
97.7
35.2
97.5
32.9
96.8
30.8
95.7
29.5
92.3
24.7
81.1
17.6
66.2
11.0
42.6
5.6
2001
Male
Female
1.6
0.9
29.8
18.6
75.0
42.7
88.1
39.5
91.3
37.0
91.8
37.9
91.1
38.3
89.3
37.1
84.3
31.8
73.1
24.3
55.8
15.2
32.6
6.9
Assumptions Regarding Future Population and Labour
Force Participation Rates by
Age Groups and Sex
1.
The future male and female population by age and sex can be
obtained from Population Projections if available and the
researcher is satisfied with the assumptions made with regard
to fertility, mortality and migration.
2. Assumptions regarding age-sex labour force participation rates.
(a) Male
- Young ages (10-14, 15-19, 20-24)
- Middle ages ( 25-55)
- Older ages (55-65+)
(b) Females
- Young ages (10-14, 15-19)
- Child bearing ages (20-44)
- Older ages (45-65+)
In the case of females participation is largely influenced by marital
status, educational attainment, attitudes and job preferences.
In order to determine the future rates of labour force
participation, it is necessary to examine the past trends of the
population under study as well as the rates of other populations
which have a similar economic structures.
Example of Labour Force Projection
Male Labour Force Projection, 2015
Population
LFPR
Labour Force
2015
2015
2015
Age Group
(1)
(2)
(1) x (2)
10-14
792
4
32
15-19
795
37
294
20-24
771
90
694
25-29
794
97
771
30-34
884
98
866
35-39
883
98
865
40-44
801
98
785
45-49
725
97
704
50-54
676
94
635
55-59
629
78
491
60-64
534
63
336
65+
1049
40
420
Total
6,894
Measures of Labour Force and Employment
• Labour Force Participation Rate
LPR = No. of Employed + No. of Unemployed x 100
Population 15-64
• Employment Rate
ER = No. of employed x 100
Labour Force
• Unemployment Rate
UR = No. of unemployed x 100
Labour Force
(These rates can be measured for Gender)
Employment by Demographic and SES factors
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Why explore employment data?
Employment
by sex
by age
by marital status
by urban/rural
by other ses variables
by occupation
By industry
Entries, Withdrawals and Net additions of Male Labour Force during
2010-2015
Age Group
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65+
Male Labour Force (000)
2010
2015
32
32
288
294
714
694
866
771
875
866
795
865
722
785
672
704
613
635
440
491
284
336
350
420
Change
+32
+262
+406
+57
0
-10
-10
-18
-37
-122
-104
-214
Entries to the Labour Force : (32+262+406+57)= 757
Withdrawals from Labour Force : (-10-10-18-37-122-104-214)= - 515
Net Additions to the Labour Force: 757 – 515 = 242
Average annual net additions = 242 / 5 = 48
Major Industrial Categories:
Agriculture
1. Agriculture, Livestock and Forestry
2. Fishing
Industry
1. Mining and Quarrying
2. Manufacturing
3. Electricity, Gas and Water
4. Construction
Services
1. Wholesale and Retail Trade
2. Hotels and Restaurants
3. Transport and Communication
4. Banking, Insurance and Real Estate etc
5. Ownership of Dwellings
6. Government Services
7. Private Services
Employment Projections by Industry
(a) Examine the average annual growth rates of Output in the major
industrial sectors in the past (eg. during the past five years)
(b) Examine the average annual growth rates of Employment in the
major industrial sectors in the past (eg. during the past five
years)
(c) Using data in (a) and (b) estimate the average rate of growth of
Productivity in the major industrial sectors
(d) Make projections of Output for major industrial sectors for the
future years (or obtain them from National Plans)
(e) Determine the future rates of growth of Productivity for each
industrial sector by taking into consideration of the changes in
the productivity of capital and trained manpower.
(f) Apply the projected rates of growth of Output to projected
growth rates of Productivity and estimate the future
Employment.
Major Occupational Categories
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
Legislators, Senior Officials and Managers
Professionals
Technicians and Associated Professionals
Clerks
Service Workers and Shop and Market Sales Workers
Skilled Agricultural and fishery Workers
Craft and Related Workers
Indistrial Catergories
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Total
1
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
Employment: Industry/Occupation Matrix
Occupational Categories
2
3
4
5
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
6
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
7
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
Total
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
Employment Projections by Occupation
(a) Obtain the future employment projections by industry from the
earlier exercise.
(b) Construct an Industry/Occupation employment matrix as shown
in the previous table at least for two points in time.
(c) Examine the changes in industry/occupation employment
coefficients.
(d) Make changes in the coefficients as appropriate
(e) Apply those coefficients to the projected employment by
industry to obtain the employment projections by occupations.
B. Needs Based
The need or requirement requires an estimate based on
professional judgement of the number of workers necessary to
attain and maintain a particular level of service.
In some sectors like education and health, employment projections
are made on need based taking into occount certain norms such
as pupil / teacher or doctor / population ratios.
The ratio method needs three basic sets of data: the existing
supply of manpower of the type under consideration, the
normative ratio to be used, and the projected population.
Employed Population
• The employed population comprises all persons above the
minimum age specified for measurement of the economically active
population who, during a short reference period of one week
(Preferred option) (a) performed some work for pay, profit or family
gain, in cash or kind; or (b) were temporarily absent from a job in
which they had already worked and to which they maintained a
formal attachment or from a self – employment activity such as a
business enterprise, a farm or a service undertaking.
• Employment Status
a. Employee
b. Employer
c. Self – employed or own account worker
d. Unpaid Family Worker
The End