Output and the Exchange Rate in the Short Run Chapter 17 Krugman and Obstfeld 9e ECO41 International Economics Udayan Roy Long Run and Short Run • Long run theories are useful when all prices of inputs and outputs have enough time to adjust fully to changes in supply and demand. • In the short run, some prices of inputs and outputs may not have time to adjust, due to labor contracts, costs of adjustment, or imperfect information about market demand. • This chapter discusses a theory of the short run behavior of a “small” economy with flexible exchange rates under perfect capital mobility 16-2 Long Run and Short Run Variable Long Run Short Run P, the overall price level Endogenous Exogenous Y, inflation-adjusted GNP Exogenous Endogenous Ee, expected future value of the exchange rate Endogenous Exogenous Every theory consist of exogenous variables and endogenous variables. Endogenous variables are those variables whose up and down movements the theory is trying to explain. Exogenous variables are those variables that the theory finds useful in explaining the up and down movements of the endogenous variables. However, the theory has nothing to say about the up and down movements of the exogenous variables. In other words, the exogenous variables are mystery variables. Changes in the exogenous variables explain changes in the endogenous variables, but the theory has no idea why the exogenous variables occasionally change in value. Equilibrium in the markets for goods and services requires that the output of goods and services be equal to the demand for goods and services THE DD CURVE Determinants of Aggregate Demand • • Aggregate demand (D) is the aggregate amount of goods and services that people are willing to buy. It consists of the following types of expenditure: 1. 2. 3. 4. • consumption expenditure (C) investment expenditure (I) government purchases (G) net expenditure by foreigners: the current account (CA) So, aggregate demand for the domestic country’s output is đĢ = đĒ + đ° + đŽ + đĒđ¨ 16-5 The Four Components of Aggregate Demand • We need to specify the factors that determine C, I, G, and CA Determinants of Aggregate Demand • Assumption: Consumption expenditure (C) increases when disposable income (Y − T)—which is income (Y) minus taxes (T)—increases – … but by less than the increase in disposable income – Real interest rates may influence the amount of saving and consumption, but we assume that they are relatively unimportant here. – Wealth may also influence consumption, but we assume that it is relatively unimportant here. • đĒ = đĒđ + đĒđ â đ − đģ 16-7 Determinants of Aggregate Demand • đļ = đļ0 + đļđĻ â đ − đ – đļđĻ is the Marginal Propensity to Consume. It is the increase in consumption spending when after-tax income increases by one unit. Therefore, it is a positive fraction: 0 < đļđĻ < 1 – đļ0 is exogenous consumption. This is what consumption spending would be when after-tax income is zero. đļ0 reflects the impact on consumption spending of all factors other than after-tax income. For example, đļ0 may change when there are changes in interest rates, households’ wealth, or consumers’ confidence 16-8 Determinants of Aggregate Demand • Both investment spending (I) and government spending (G) are assumed to be exogenous – Consequently, although the theory does discuss how changes in I and G affect endogenous variables such as Y and E, it has no idea what makes I and G fluctuate Determinants of Aggregate Demand • Assumption: The balance on the current account (CA) increases … – … when the real exchange rate (q) increases • Recall that the real exchange rate is the price of foreign products relative to the price of domestic products: q = EP*/P – … when disposable income decreases • more disposable income (Y-T) means more expenditure on foreign products (imports). Therefore, when Y−T rises, CA falls. • đĒđ¨ = đĒđ¨đ + đĒđ¨đ â đ − đĒđ¨đ â đ − đģ 16-10 Determinants of Aggregate Demand • đļđ´ = đļđ´0 + đļđ´đ â đ − đļđ´đ â đ − đ – đļđ´đ is the increase in the domestic country’s current account when the real exchange rate increases by one unit. – Any increase (decrease) in the tariff on imported goods leads to an increase (decrease) in đļđ´đ . – Note that đļđ´đ > 0 16-11 Determinants of Aggregate Demand • đļđ´ = đļđ´0 + đļđ´đ â đ − đļđ´đ â đ − đ – đļđ´đ is the decrease in the domestic country’s current account (or, net exports) when after-tax income increases by one unit. When after-tax income increases by one unit, consumption spending increases by đļđĻ units. Part of this increase in consumption is imported, and this is denoted đļđ´đ . – Therefore, 0 < đļđ´đ < đļđĻ , which also means đļđĻ − đļđ´đ > 0. 16-12 Determinants of Aggregate Demand • đļđ´ = đļđ´0 + đļđ´đ â đ − đļđ´đ â đ − đ – đļđ´0 is exogenous net exports. – đļđ´0 reflects the impact on the domestic country’s current account of all factors other than the real exchange rate and after-tax income. – For example, đļđ´0 may increase when there is an increase in the foreign country’s GNP, or the domestic country increases the tariff on its imports 16-13 Determinants of Aggregate Demand • đļ = đļ0 + đļđĻ â đ − đ • đļđ´ = đļđ´0 + đļđ´đ â đ − đļđ´đ â đ − đ • đˇ = đļ + đŧ + đē + đļđ´ • Therefore, đˇ = đļ0 + đļđĻ â đ − đ + đŧ + đē + đļđ´0 + đļđ´đ â đ − đļđ´đ â đ − đ Short-Run Equilibrium in the Goods Market • For the goods market to be in equilibrium, GNP must equal aggregate demand: đ = đĢ • Therefore, đˇ = đļ0 + đļđĻ â đ − đ + đŧ + đē + đļđ´0 + đļđ´đ â đ − đļđ´đ â đ − đ becomes đ = đĒđ + đĒđ â đ − đģ + đ° + đŽ + đĒđ¨đ + đĒđ¨đ â đ − đĒđ¨đ â đ − đģ • This equation represents equilibrium in the domestic country’s goods markets Y īŊ C0 īĢ C y ī ī¨Y ī T īŠ īĢ I īĢ G īĢ CA0 īĢ CAq ī q ī CAm ī ī¨Y ī T īŠ Y īŊ C0 īĢ C y ī Y ī C y ī T īĢ I īĢ G īĢ CA0 īĢ CAq ī q ī CAm ī Y īĢ CAm ī T Y īŊ C0 īĢ ī¨C y ī CAm īŠī Y ī ī¨C y ī CAm īŠī T īĢ I īĢ G īĢ CA0 īĢ CAq ī q Y ī ī¨C y ī CAm īŠī Y īŊ C0 ī ī¨C y ī CAm īŠī T īĢ I īĢ G īĢ CA0 īĢ CAq ī q ī¨1 ī ī¨C YīŊ y ī CAm īŠīŠī Y īŊ C0 ī ī¨C y ī CAm īŠī T īĢ I īĢ G īĢ CA0 īĢ CAq ī q C0 ī ī¨C y ī CAm īŠī T īĢ I īĢ G īĢ CA0 īĢ CAq ī q ī¨1 ī ī¨C y ī CAm īŠīŠ īĻ E ī P* īļ īˇīˇ C0 ī ī¨C y ī CAm īŠī T īĢ I īĢ G īĢ CA0 īĢ CAq ī ī§ī§ P ī¸ ī¨ YīŊ ī¨1 ī ī¨C y ī CAm īŠīŠ Note that we now have an equation in which the domestic country’s GNP (Y) and the exchange rate of the foreign country’s currency (E) are the only two endogenous variables; all other variables are exogenous. This is the DD equation. Goods Market Equilibrium īĻ E ī P* īļ īˇīˇ C0 ī ī¨C y ī CAm īŠī T īĢ I īĢ G īĢ CA0 īĢ CAq ī ī§ī§ P ī¸ ī¨ YīŊ ī¨1 ī ī¨C y ī CAm īŠīŠ Note that, for specified values of all the exogenous variables in the DD equation, any increase in E must be accompanied by an increase in Y, and vice versa. That is, equilibrium in the goods market implies a direct relation between Y and E. This yields the upward-rising DD curve. The DD equation The DD curve Shifts of the DD Curve īĻ E ī P* īļ īˇīˇ C0 ī ī¨C y ī CAm īŠī T īĢ I īĢ G īĢ CA0 īĢ CAq ī ī§ī§ P ī¸ ī¨ YīŊ ī¨1 ī ī¨C y ī CAm īŠīŠ What could cause the DD curve to shift to the right? DD2 3 Shifts of the DD Curve īĻ E ī P* īļ īˇīˇ C0 ī ī¨C y ī CAm īŠī T īĢ I īĢ G īĢ CA0 īĢ CAq ī ī§ī§ P ī¸ ī¨ YīŊ ī¨1 ī ī¨C y ī CAm īŠīŠ What could cause the DD curve to shift to the right? Suppose the DD curve shifts to the right. Then, note that at any particular value of E, the value of Y indicated by the DD equation/curve must increase. For example, if E = E1 in the diagram, the equilibrium value of output indicated by the DD equation/curve must increase from Y1 to Y2. Now, what would need to happen for Y to increase when E is unchanged? DD2 3 Shifts of the DD Curve īĻ E ī P* īļ īˇīˇ C0 ī ī¨C y ī CAm īŠī T īĢ I īĢ G īĢ CA0 īĢ CAq ī ī§ī§ P ī¸ ī¨ YīŊ ī¨1 ī ī¨C y ī CAm īŠīŠ What could cause the DD curve to shift to the right? Suppose the DD curve shifts to the right. Then, note that at any particular value of E, the value of Y indicated by the DD equation/curve must increase. For example, if E = E1 in the diagram, the equilibrium value of output indicated by the DD equation/curve must increase from Y1 to Y2. Now, what would need to happen for Y to increase when E is unchanged? DD2 3 Shifts of the DD Curve • So, we see that the DD curve shifts to the right if: – There is an increase in C0, I, G, CA0, CAq, or P*, or – There is a decrease in T or P • Every one of these shifts represents an increase in aggregate demand • So, the DD curve shifts right whenever an exogenous change boosts aggregate demand Shifting the DD Curve • The DD curve shifts right if: – G increases Simply put, the DD curve shifts right whenever an exogenous change boosts aggregate demand – T decreases – I increases – P decreases – P* increases – C increases for some unknown reason (C0↑) – CA increases for some unknown reason (CA0↑, CAq↑) 16-22 We’ve seen this before in Chapter 15. Equilibrium in the foreign currency markets requires interest rate parity. Equilibrium in the money market requires equality of money supply and money demand. THE AA CURVE Short Run Equilibrium for Assets • We’ve discussed two asset markets: 1. Ch 14: Foreign exchange market – interest parity: R = R* + (Ee – E)/E 2. Ch 15: Money market – money supply equals money demand in equilibrium: Ms = P × L(R, Y) 16-24 Equilibrium in Asset Markets • We simplify the money market equilibrium đâđŋ0 âđ đ equation to đ = or equivalently to đ= đđ đŋ0 âđ đ âđ • The interest parity equation then yields đ = đđ đŋ0 âđ â đ ∗ + đ¸đ đ¸ −1 • This is the AA equation, and it can be turned into the AA curve Fig. 17-7: The AA Schedule đ đ´đ đŦ đ= â đš∗ + −đ đŗđ â đˇ đŦ 17-26 Shifts of the AA Curve • đ= đđ đŋ0 âđ â đ ∗ + đ¸đ đ¸ −1 – Suppose the economy is initially at Point 2 – Suppose there is a decrease in Ms or R* or Ee, or an increase in L0 or P – If E stays unchanged at E2, then Y must decrease – The economy must go from Point 2 to, perhaps, Point 3 – In other words, a decrease in Ms or R* or Ee, or an increase in L0 or P shifts the AA curve left 3 AA2 Shifting the AA Curve • The AA curve shifts right if: – – – – – Ms increases Simply put, the AA curve shifts right whenever an exogenous change increases P decreases money supply or decreases money e E increases demand R* increases L decreases for some unknown reason (L0↓) E đ đ´đ đŦ đ= â đš∗ + −đ đŗđ â đˇ đŦ E0 E1 Y0 Y1 Y 16-28 All markets must be simultaneously in equilibrium SHORT-RUN MACROECONOMIC EQUILIBRIUM Putting the Pieces Together: the DD and AA Curves • A short-run equilibrium means that there is equilibrium in all markets: 1. the output market: aggregate demand (D) equals aggregate output (Y). 2. the foreign exchange market: interest parity holds. 3. the money market: money supply (MS) equals money demand (Md). 16-30 Fig. 17-8: Short-Run Equilibrium: The Intersection of DD and AA The output market is in equilibrium on the DD curve The asset markets are in equilibrium on the AA curve The short run equilibrium occurs at the intersection of the DD and AA curves 17-31 Shifting the AA and DD Curves • The DD curve shifts right if: ī¨ G increases ī¨ T decreases ī¨ I increases ī¨ P decreases ī¨ P* increases ī¨ C increases for some unknown reason (C0↑) ī¨ CA increases for some unknown reason (CA0↑, CAq↑) • The AA curve shifts right if: – – – – – Ms increases P decreases Ee increases R* increases L decreases for some unknown reason (L0↓) Knowing how some exogenous change shifts the DD and AA curves will help us predict the consequences of the exogenous change. 16-32 Short-run effects of temporary changes in … MONETARY POLICY Temporary Changes in Monetary Policy • Monetary policy: what central banks do to influence the economy through changes in the money supply (MS). – Monetary policy primarily affects asset markets (the AA curve). • Temporary policy changes are expected to be reversed in the near future and thus do not affect expectations about exchange rates in the long run. – Specifically, temporary changes in MS do not affect Ee. • Expansionary monetary policy: MS↑ • Contractionary monetary policy: MS↓ 16-34 Shifting the AA and DD Curves • The DD curve shifts right if: ī¨ G increases ī¨ T decreases ī¨ I increases ī¨ P decreases ī¨ P* increases ī¨ C increases for some unknown reason (C0↑) ī¨ CA increases for some unknown reason (CA0↑, CAq↑) • The AA curve shifts right if: – – – – – Ms increases P decreases Ee increases R* increases L decreases for some unknown reason (L0↓) Knowing how some exogenous change shifts the DD and AA curves helps us predict the consequences of the exogenous change. 16-35 Temporary Changes in Monetary Policy • When there is an increase in the supply of money – The AA shifts up (right) and DD is unaffected. – Both E and Y increase – R decreases • As Ee is unaffected when the change in Ms is temporary—see next three slides—the increase in E leads to a decrease in R; recall R = R* + (Ee/E) – 1. E DD E0 AA Y0 Y 16-36 Effect of Monetary Policy on q • Recall that the real exchange rate is đ = đ¸ â đ∗ /đ • We just saw that when the domestic money supply increases, the foreign currency increases in value: Ms↑ implies E↑ • Now, P and P* are exogenous. • Although exogenous variables can change, a change in one variable cannot cause another variable that is exogenous to change. Effect of Monetary Policy on q • Therefore, – as Ms↑ implies E↑, and – as P and P* are exogenous, it follows that – đ = đ¸ â đ∗ /đ must also ↑ The Exchange Rate in the Future • How should we think about Ee? – It is what people today expect the exchange rate to be in the future • When there is a temporary change in an exogenous variable, there is no reason to expect the future value of the exchange rate to be affected • Therefore, we assume that Ee is unaffected by temporary changes in the exogenous variables The Exchange Rate in the Future • But when there is a permanent change in an exogenous variable, it is reasonable to expect the future value of the exchange rate to change – We saw in Ch. 16 that đ¸ = đâđđ â đ ∗ +đđ đ −đ đ đ −đ∗ đŋ0 âđ đ âđ∗ in the long run – So, if there are permanent changes in any of the variables on the right-hand side, we must assume that Ee would change. Right away! The Exchange Rate in the Future • To sum up, in short-run analysis of temporary changes in exogenous variables we treat Ee as an exogenous variable. – Ee may change, just like any other exogenous variable may change. But changes in some other exogenous variable cannot cause Ee to change • In short-run analysis of permanent changes in exogenous variables we treat Ee as an endogenous variable. Effect of Monetary Policy on R • In Ch. 14 we saw the interest parity equation: đ = đ ∗ + đ¸đ đ¸ −1 • We just saw that Ms↑ implies E↑ • As R* and Ee are exogenous, a change in Ms cannot cause them to change • Therefore, Ms↑ implies R↓ • Expansionary monetary policy reduces interest rates Two Ways to Analyze CA • There are two ways to figure out the effect of a change in an exogenous variable on a country’s current account • Method 1: đļđ´ = đļđ´0 + đļđ´đ â đ − đļđ´đ â đ−đ We will return to Ch. 16 and use this to analyze the long-run behavior of CA. Two Ways to Analyze CA • To see Method 2, recall that đ = đļ + đŧ + đē + đļđ´ in goods market equilibrium. • So, đļđ´ = đ − đļ − đŧ − đē • Recall that đļ = đļ0 + đļđĻ â đ − đ . Therefore, • Method 2: đļđ´ = đ − đļ0 − đļđĻ â đ − đ − đŧ − đē = 1 − đļđĻ â đ − đļ0 + đļđĻ â đ − đŧ − đē We will return to Ch. 16 and use this to analyze the long-run behavior of CA. Effect of Monetary Policy on CA • Use Method 2: đļđ´ = 1 − đļđĻ â đ − đļ0 + đļđĻ â đ−đŧ−đē • We have seen that an increase in Ms causes Y to increase. • Therefore, CA must increase. • That is, an increase in the supply of money, leads to an increase in the current account R*↑ and E ↑ have the balance (or, net exports) e same effect, as does a fall in money demand (L0↓). 16-45 Exogenous Money Demand • Recall the AA and DD equations: • AA: đ = • • DD: đđ đŋ0 âđ â đ ∗ + đ¸đ đ¸ −1 īĻ E ī P* īļ īˇīˇ C0 ī ī¨C y ī CAm īŠī T īĢ I īĢ G īĢ CA0 īĢ CAq ī ī§ī§ P ī¸ ī¨ YīŊ ī¨1 ī ī¨C y ī CAm īŠīŠ • It should be clear that the effects of L0↓ are the same as the effects of Ms↑ that we have just analyzed [Can you verify this?] Summary: Short Run Predictions, Flexible Exchange Rate System DD AA Y CA q E R Ms → + + + + − L0 ← − − − − + Here’s a very informal ‘story’ about the effects of expansionary monetary policy: if the domestic central bank prints more money, the value of the domestic currency will decrease and so the value of the foreign currency will increase (E↑). This makes foreign goods more expensive (q↑). As a result, the domestic net exports increase (CA↑). This increase in net exports boosts domestic aggregate demand, which raises output (Y↑). Also, when more money is printed, domestic interest rates fall (R↓). The exogenous variables—policy variables and ‘shocks’—are listed on the first column and the endogenous unknowns are listed on the first row. The 2nd and 3rd columns show how the DD and AA curves are shifted by an increase in the exogenous variables. The predictions above are for temporary changes in the exogenous variables. Fig. 17-10: Effects of a Temporary Increase in the Money Supply R*↑ and Ee↑ have the same effect on AA and DD. And so does a fall in money demand (L0↓). 17-48 Changes in Ee and R* • Any increase in Ee, the expected future value of the foreign currency, or in R*, the foreign interest rate, cause the same shifts as expansionary monetary policy: the AA curve shifts rightward and the DD curve is unaffected • Therefore, Y↑ and E↑. • As P and P*, being exogenous, are unaffected, E↑ implies q↑ Changes in Ee and R* • Recall that the money market’s equilibrium đâđŋ0 âđ đ equation is đ = or, equivalently, đ = đŋ0 âđâđ đđ đ • As L0, P, and Ms, being exogenous, are unaffected by increases in Ee or R*, the fact that Y↑ implies R↑ Changes in Ee and R* • Recall that đļđ´ = 1 − đļđĻ â đ − đļ0 + đļđĻ â đ − đŧ−đē • We have just seen that Ee↑ or R*↑ causes Y↑ • As I and G are exogenous and, therefore, unaffected by changes in Ee or R*, it must be that CA↑ Summary: Short Run Predictions, Flexible Exchange Rate System DD AA Y CA q E R Ms → + + + + − L0 ← − − − − + Ee → + + + + + R* → + + + + + Here’s an informal ‘story’ about the effects of increases in R* and Ee: When the foreign interest rate rises and the expected future value of the foreign currency rises, keeping money in foreign banks becomes more attractive. So people sell the domestic currency and buy the foreign currency to move money abroad. So the domestic currency loses value and the foreign value (E↑). This The exogenous variables—policy variables and currency Thegains predictions above aremakes for foreign goods more expensive (q↑). Consequently the domestic country’s net exports ‘shocks’—are listed on the first column and the temporary changes in the increase (CA↑). This boosts domestic aggregate demand and output (Y↑). The rise in endogenous unknowns are listed on the first row. exogenous variables. output causes money demand to rise, which means less lending. Less lending pushes The 2nd and 3rd columns show how the DD and AA up the domestic interest rate (R↑). In short, everything increases! curves are shifted by an increase in the exogenous variables. Short-run effects of temporary changes in … FISCAL POLICY Temporary Changes in Fiscal Policy • Fiscal policy is what governments do to influence the economy through changes in government spending (G) and taxes (T). – Fiscal policy primarily influences the goods market (the DD curve). • Temporary policy changes are expected to be reversed in the near future and thus do not affect expectations about exchange rates in the long run. – Specifically, temporary changes in G and T do not affect Ee. • Expansionary fiscal policy: G↑ and/or T↓ • Contractionary fiscal policy: G↓ and/or T ↑ 16-54 Temporary Changes in Fiscal Policy • An increase in government purchases or a decrease in taxes increases aggregate demand and output. – The DD curve shifts right. – Higher output increases money demand, and – thereby increases interest rates, – causing an increase in the value of the domestic currency (a fall in E). 16-55 Shifting the AA and DD Curves • The DD curve shifts right if: ī¨ G increases ī¨ T decreases ī¨ I increases ī¨ P decreases ī¨ P* increases ī¨ C increases for some unknown reason (C0↑) ī¨ CA increases for some unknown reason (CA0↑, CAq↑) • The AA curve shifts right if: – – – – – Ms increases P decreases Ee increases R* increases L decreases for some unknown reason (L0↓) Knowing how some exogenous change shifts the DD and AA curves will help us predict the consequences of the exogenous change. 16-56 Fig. 17-11: Effects of a Temporary Fiscal Expansion G↑ and/or T↓ C0↑, CA0↑, CAq↑, P*↑ and I↑ also shift DD to the right and leave AA unaffected. So, they too have the same effect: Y↑, E↓, and R↑. 17-57 Effect of Temporary Fiscal Stimulus • We just saw that expansionary fiscal policy— that is, G↑ and/or T↓—causes E↓ and Y↑. – Therefore, Y – T↑ • As P and P* are exogenous, they are unaffected by changes in G and T. • Therefore, đ = đ¸ â đ∗ /đ, which is the real exchange rate, must decrease: q↓ This argument also applies for C0↑, CA0↑, CAq↑ and I↑. So, they too cause q↓. [Verify] 16-58 Effect of Temporary Fiscal Stimulus ∗ • Recall that đ = đ + đ¸đ đ¸ − 1 (interest parity) • We just saw that a temporary fiscal stimulus reduces E • But it cannot affect R* and Ee, which are exogenous • It follows that the domestic interest rate must increase: R↑ This argument also applies for C0↑, CA0↑, CAq↑, P*↑ and I↑. So, they too cause R↑. [Verify] Effect of Temporary Fiscal Stimulus • Recall that there are two ways of expressing the domestic country’s net exports (or, current account): • Method 1: đļđ´ = đļđ´0 + đļđ´đ â đ − đļđ´đ â đ−đ • Method 2: đļđ´ = 1 − đļđĻ â đ − đļ0 + đļđĻ â đ − đŧ−đē 16-60 Effect of Temporary Fiscal Stimulus • We just saw that expansionary fiscal policy causes Y↑ and q↓ • Using đļđ´ = đļđ´0 + đļđ´đ â đ − đļđ´đ â đ − đ , it follows that CA↓ • That is, expansionary fiscal policy reduces a country’s current account balance (also called net exports and trade surplus) This argument also applies for C0↑ and I↑. So, they too cause CA↓. [Verify] 16-61 Effect of Temporary Fiscal Stimulus • Recall the AA and DD equations: • AA: đ = • • DD: đđ đŋ0 âđ â đ ∗ + đ¸đ đ¸ −1 īĻ E ī P* īļ īˇīˇ C0 ī ī¨C y ī CAm īŠī T īĢ I īĢ G īĢ CA0 īĢ CAq ī ī§ī§ P ī¸ ī¨ YīŊ ī¨1 ī ī¨C y ī CAm īŠīŠ • It should be clear that the effects of C0↑, CA0↑, CAq↑, P*↑, and I↑ on Y, E, R and q are the same as the effects of G↑ that we have just analyzed [Can you verify this?] Summary: Short Run Predictions, Flexible Exchange Rate System DD AA Y CA q E R G, I, C0 → + − − − + T ← − + + + − Here’s an informal ‘story’ of the effects of expansionary fiscal policy: Fiscal stimulus raises domestic aggregate demand and output (Y↑). This raises money demand, meaning people become less willing to lend. This raises the domestic interest rate (R↑). So people sell foreign currencies and buy the domestic currency to move their wealth to domestic banks. This raises the value of the domestic currency and reduces the value of the foreign currency (E↓). This makes foreign goods cheaper (q↓). Both the rising income at home and the cheaper foreign goods reduce net exports (CA↓). The exogenous variables—policy variables and ‘shocks’—are listed on the first column and the endogenous unknowns are listed on the first row. The 2nd and 3rd columns show how the DD and AA curves are shifted by an increase in the exogenous variables. The predictions above are for temporary changes in the exogenous variables. Change in Foreign Prices (P*) • We saw earlier that P*↑ causes the DD curve to shift right and has no effect on the AA curve • Therefore, E↓ and Y↑. • And, from đļđ´ = 1 − đļđĻ â đ − đļ0 + đļđĻ â đ − đŧ − đē, it follows that CA↑ • From đļđ´ = đļđ´0 + đļđ´đ â đ − đļđ´đ â đ − đ , it then follows that q↑ [Can you verify this?] Change in Foreign Prices (P*) ∗ • Recall that đ = đ + đ¸đ đ¸ − 1 (interest parity) • We just saw that a temporary increase in P* reduces E • But it cannot affect R* and Ee, which are exogenous • It follows that the domestic interest rate must increase: R↑ Change in Import Tariffs (CAq) • We saw earlier that CAq↑ causes the DD curve to shift right and has no effect on the AA curve • Therefore, E↓ and Y↑. • And, from đļđ´ = 1 − đļđĻ â đ − đļ0 + đļđĻ â đ − đŧ − đē, it follows that CA↑ • From đ = đ¸ â đ∗ /đ, it then follows that q↓ [Can you verify this?] Change in Import Tariffs (CAq) ∗ • Recall that đ = đ + đ¸đ đ¸ − 1 (interest parity) • We just saw that a temporary increase in P* reduces E • But it cannot affect R* and Ee, which are exogenous • It follows that the domestic interest rate must increase: R↑ An Increase in Foreign GNP (CA0↑) • We have seen before that CA0↑ causes Y↑, E↓, R↑, and q↓ • Then, from đļđ´ = 1 − đļđĻ â đ − đļ0 + đļđĻ â đ − đŧ − đē, it follows that CA↑ Shifting the AA and DD Curves • The DD curve shifts right if: ī¨ G increases ī¨ T decreases ī¨ I increases ī¨ P decreases ī¨ P* increases ī¨ C increases for some unknown reason (C0↑) ī¨ CA increases for some unknown reason (CA0↑, CAq↑) • The AA curve shifts right if: – – – – – Ms increases P decreases Ee increases R* increases L decreases for some unknown reason (L0↓) Knowing how some exogenous change shifts the DD and AA curves will help us predict the consequences of the exogenous change. 16-71 Change in Domestic Prices (P) • Recall that P↓ causes both AA and DD curves to shift rightward • Therefore, it is clear that Y↑ • But E could decrease, stay unchanged, or increase, as in the three diagrams below E E DD AA E DD AA Y DD AA Y Y Change in Domestic Prices (P) • As Y↑, it follows from đļđ´ = 1 − đļđĻ â đ − đļ0 + đļđĻ â đ − đŧ − đē that CA↑ • From đļđ´ = đļđ´0 + đļđ´đ â đ − đļđ´đ â đ − đ , it then follows that q↑ [Can you verify this?] • Finally, the interest parity equation (đ = đ ∗ + đ¸đ − 1) implies that, as Ee and R* are exogenous đ¸ and, therefore, unaffected by P↓, the ambiguous behavior of E implies that R too could decrease, stay unchanged, or increase Summary: Short Run Predictions, Flexible Exchange Rate System DD AA Y CA q E R Ms → + + + + − L0 ← − − − − + Ee → + + + + + R* → + + + + + G, I, C0 → + − − − + CA0 → + + − − + T ← − + + + − P* → + + + − + CAq → + + − − + P ← ← − − The exogenous variables—policy variables and ‘shocks’—are listed on the first column and the endogenous unknowns are listed on the first row. − ? ? The predictions above are for temporary changes in the exogenous variables. The 2nd and 3rd columns show how the DD and AA curves are shifted by an increase in the exogenous variables. Summary: Short Run Predictions, Flexible Exchange Rate System DD AA Y CA q E R Ms → + + + + − L0 ← − − − − + Ee → + + + + + R* → + + + + + G, I, C0 → + − − − + CA0 → + + − − + T ← − + + + − P* → + + + − + CAq → + + − − + P ← − − − ? ? ← Q: If the economy is in a recession—with falling output and rising unemployment—what kind of monetary and fiscal policy would be appropriate? A: Expansionary fiscal policy (G↑ and/or T↓) and expansionary monetary policy (Ms↑) Summary: Short Run Predictions, Flexible Exchange Rate System DD AA Y CA q E R Ms → + + + + − L0 ← − − − − + Ee → + + + + + R* → + + + + + G, I, C0 → + − − − + CA0 → + + − − + T ← − + + + − P* → + + + − + CAq → + + − − + P ← − − − ? ? ← Q: If the economy has a huge trade deficit and it has become necessary to increase net exports (CA), what kind of monetary and fiscal policy would be appropriate? A: Contractionary fiscal policy (G↓ and/or T↑) and expansionary monetary policy (Ms↑) Summary: Short Run Predictions, Flexible Exchange Rate System DD AA Y CA q E R Ms → + + + + − L0 ← − − − − + Ee → + + + + + R* → + + + + + G, I, C0 → + − − − + CA0 → + + − − + T ← − + + + − P* → + + + − + CAq → + + − − + P ← − − − ? ? ← Q: If foreign prices or foreign interest rates decrease, what kind of monetary and fiscal policy would keep output and unemployment stable in the domestic country? A: Expansionary fiscal policy (G↑ and/or T↓) and expansionary monetary policy (Ms↑) We need to return briefly to Chapter 16 for this LONG-RUN BEHAVIOR OF CA Requires a quick detour of Chapter 16 SHORT-RUN EFFECTS OF PERMANENT CHANGES IN GOVERNMENT POLICY The Exchange Rate in the Future • When there is a permanent change in an exogenous variable, it is reasonable to expect the future value of the exchange rate to change The Exchange Rate in the Future • We saw in Ch. 16 that in the long run –đ¸= –đ= đâđđ â đ ∗ +đđ đ −đ đ đ −đ∗ đŋ0 âđ đ âđ∗ 1− đļđĻ −đļđ´đ âđ đ + đļđĻ −đļđ´đ âđ− đļ0 +đŧ+đē+đļđ´0 đļđ´đ – So, if there are permanent changes in any of the variables on the right-hand side, we must assume that Ee would change as indicated. Right away! Fiscal Policy • Note from the previous slide that a permanent increase in G and/or a permanent decrease in T will cause both q and E to decrease in the long run • Therefore, we should expect Ee to decrease in the short run, in fact immediately • G↑ and/or T↓ shifts the DD curve right • And Ee ↓ shifts the AA curve left Shifting the AA and DD Curves • The DD curve shifts right if: ī¨ G increases ī¨ T decreases ī¨ I increases ī¨ P decreases ī¨ P* increases ī¨ C increases for some unknown reason (C0↑) ī¨ CA increases for some unknown reason (CA0↑, CAq↑) • The AA curve shifts right if: – – – – – Ms increases P decreases Ee increases R* increases L decreases for some unknown reason (L0↓) Knowing how some exogenous change shifts the DD and AA curves will help us predict the consequences of the exogenous change. 16-83 Fiscal Policy in the Short Run • When expansionary fiscal policy is temporary, the DD curve shifts right and the AA curve is unaffected • When expansionary fiscal policy is permanent, the DD curve shifts right and the AA curve shifts left • Therefore, expansionary fiscal policy is less effective when it is permanent!! Permanent Increase in Money Supply • The AA curve shifts right because of the increase in MS. The equilibrium moves from point 1 to point 3 in Fig 17-14. • In the long run, E will rise (See 3 slides back) • This will have the immediate effect of raising Ee. • The increase in Ee shifts the AA curve to the right again. • The equilibrium moves from point 3 to point 2. • Both E and Y increase more for a permanent increase in MS than for a temporary increase in MS. 16-85 Fig. 17-14: Short-Run Effects of a Permanent Increase in the Money Supply 17-86 Permanent ↑ in Ms: Overshooting? AA1 is the initial AA curve AA2 is AA1 plus effect of Ee↑ caused by permanent ↑ in Ms. AA3 is AA2 plus effect of Ms/P↑ caused by permanent ↑ in Ms. In the long run, Ms/P returns to original level. So, the economy goes from the lower of the two green dots to a black dot in the short run, and to the higher of the two green dots in the long run. E DD2 DD1 E AA3 AA2 AA1 Yp Overshooting Y Yp DD2 E DD1 DD2 DD1 AA3 AA2 AA1 AA3 AA2 AA1 Y Neither over nor under! Yp Undershooting Y 16-87