Chapter 2 -- Measuring Output and The Price Level Data complied at the National Income and Product Accounts (NIPA) Measuring Output -- Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Gross Domestic Product -- The total market value of all currently produced final goods and services over a period of time. Nominal GDP -- GDP in current dollars Real GDP -- GDP in constant dollars. Aspects of GDP Definition “Over a Period of Time” GDP is a flow measure. “Currently Produced” GDP excludes the following -- sales of used items -- transfer payments -- purchases of stocks, bonds, or land “Market Value” -- the transaction must be recorded and have a specific dollar figure attached GDP excludes -- illegal purchases -- household production Final Goods and Services and Measuring GDP Example -- Production of a pair of shoes. GDP and Making Shoes Step Value Farmer 3 Packing Plant 7 Tannery 13 Shoe Manufacturer 25 Wholesaler 40 Retailer 75 Total 163 Value Added 3 4 6 12 15 35 75 What Real GDP (Y) Signifies Total Production or Output of final goods and services Total Sales on Final Goods and Services (Approximately) Total Income Correlated With Total Employment Computing GDP -- The Expenditure Approach Operative Equation: Y = C + I + G + NX Consumption (C) Defined as consumer purchases of final goods and services components of consumption -- nondurable goods -- durable goods -- services largest component of GDP Investment (I) Business Purchases of New Plant and Equipment New Residential Housing Changes In Inventories Output Versus Sales -The Approximation Example -- $18,000 car, produced in 2000, sold in 2001 Year 2000 2001 C $0 $18 I G NX Y $18 $0 $0 $18 -$18 $0 $0 $0 Investment Goods Versus Intermediate Goods The Similarity -- Transactions between businesses. The Conceptual Difference -Producing Final Goods Versus Being Part of a Final Good The Operational Difference -- Is it used repeated times? Government Purchases of Goods and Services (G) Not the same as government expenditure (does not include transfer payments) In the US, the government is a purchaser, not a producer. Net Exports (NX) NX = Exports - Imports exports are all final goods and services GNP versus GDP -- the accounting of multinational firms Real GDP and Quality of Life Real GDP does not account for the following changes: -- leisure time -- quality differences -- crime -- environmental impacts More Quality of Life Variables Not in Real GDP -- non-market production activities (I) household production (II) underground economy -- income distribution Other Measures of Output or Income Gross Domestic Product (GDP) – Depreciation Net Domestic Product (NDP) – Indirect Business Taxes National Income (NI) National Income – Undistributed Corporate Profits (Business Saving) – Social Security and Corporate Taxes + Transfer Payments and Interest Personal Income (PI) – Personal Income Taxes Disposable Income (YD) Disposable Income and Personal Saving Define -- Personal Saving (SP) SP = YD - C Define -- Total Private Saving (S), S = Personal Saving + Business Saving The “Magic Equation” Let T = Net Taxes Net Taxes = Tax Revenues - (Transfer Payments + Interest on the Government Debt) Then the identity is: S = I + (G - T) + NX. Interpreting the Identity: Saving = Investment Identity: S = I + (G-T) + NX Rearrange Identity Into: S + (T - G) + -NX = I Special Case: (T - G) = 0, NX = 0 S=I Measuring The Price Level Measures of the Price Level (P) -- GDP Deflator -- Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Deflator Measure #1 -The GDP Deflator Market Basket -- set of final goods and services that are used to compute GDP. Chain Weighted Measure -reduces biases associated with fixed weight index (e.g. Consumer Price Index). Measure #2 – The PCE Deflator Market Basket -- set of final goods and services that are used to compute Consumption within GDP. Chain Weighted Measure -reduces biases associated with fixed weight index (e.g. Consumer Price Index). Computing the Inflation Rate Inflation Rate = Percentage Change or growth in the Price Index (P), such as the GDP Deflator. Example: Inflation Rate for 2011 Inflation Rate2011 = P2011 – P2010 P2010 Converting Nominal GDP to Real GDP Example -- find Real GDP 2011 Real GDP2011 = Nominal GDP2011 GDP Deflator2011 Real GDP for other years is computed the same way. Real GDP Growth = Percentage Change (or growth) in Real GDP. Sources to Obtain Macroeconomic Data The Economic Report of the President (Historical Data) www.gpoaccess.gov/eop/ Economic Indicators (Recent) www.gpoaccess.gov/indicators/ index.html More Websites for Macro Data and Information www.federalreserve.gov (Federal Reserve) research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/ (Federal Reserve Economic Data) bea.gov (Bureau of Economic Analysis) www.bls.gov (Consumer Price Index inflation, unemployment rate, labor productivity growth)