Political Beliefs and Behaviors
American political ideology
What’s your political
belief?
• Survey given to 10-14 year olds
• One day the President was driving his car
to a meeting. Because he was late, he was
driving very fast. The police stopped the car.
(Finish the story)
• Different countries answer differently
– England – Queen would be released
– France – President would be excused
– US – President would get a ticket like everyone
else
Types of Participation
2000 Election participation
• 82% watched the campaign on television
• 73% voted in the election
• 34% tried to influence others how to vote
• 10% put a sticker on their car
• 9% gave money to help a campaign
• 5% attended a political meeting
• 3% worked for a party or candidate
• Is this true? 73% of people vote? – No
Who REALLY
participates?
Different factors can tell us who votes
1. Education – MOST IMPORTANT, more
education=more voting
2. Religious involvement
3. Race and Ethnicity – Whites higher than
minorities (might be economic based)
4. Age – 18-24 is the lowest, and 45 and up
is the highest
Who REALLY
participates?
5. Gender – men traditionally voted more,
now it is more equal
6. Two-party competition – more
competitive elections have higher turnout
Cross-cutting cleavages – individuals
influenced by many factors, it is
important when testing for this that
variables are controlled
Voting
• Trend of low voter turnout
• 1964 – 69.3%
(Voting Age Population %)
• 1980 – 41.3%
• 1984 – 60.9%
• 1988 – 40.5%
• 1992 – 55.2%
• 1996 – 49.1%
• 2000 – 51.3%
• 2004 – 55.3%
• 2008 - ???
Expanding Suffrage
1. Lifting of property restrictions (1830) – “universal
manhood suffrage” gave voting rights to all white
males
2. Suffrage for African-Americans (1863-1964)
1. 1865 - 15th Amendment – Voting Rights to all
2. 1954 - Brown v. Board – separate but equal is illegal,
killed Jim Crow laws
3. 1964 24th Amendment – banned poll tax
4. 1965 – Voting Rights Act of 1965 – federal law
prohibited (no literacy tests, fair elections etc.)
Expanding Suffrage
3. Women’s Suffrage (1920) – 19th
Amendment gave women the right to
vote
4. 18-21 year-olds (1971) – 26th
Amendment, sparked by Vietnam
Voter Turnout
• Registered Voter turnout
• Eligible Voter turnout
• Voter Registration – blamed as one of the
causes of low turnout
• “Motor-Voter” (1993) – National Voter
Registration Act – allowed people to
register to vote while they get license
Other reasons for low
turnout
•
•
•
•
Difficulty of Absentee Voting
Number of Offices to Elect too high
Weekday, non-holiday voting
Weak political parties – less “get-out-thevote campaigns
Public Opinion
• The distribution of individual
attitudes about a particular issue,
candidate, political institution, etc.
http://www.ontheissues.org/default.htm
George Gallup
•
•
•
•
Developed “Gallup Polls”
Started in 1932
1st “pollster”
Since 1936, agency has picked one
general election result incorrect
• OTHER POLLS
• http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/late
st_polls/
Sampling
• Representative – must mirror
population you want answer about
• Random – give everyone an equal
possibility of being sampled
• Wording – questions can’t be leading
• Straw poll – poor polling technique
• WEST WING EPISODE 1-6
Political Socialization
• Factors that influence a person’s
opinion
• People in different social “groups”
tend to share certain opinions:
group identification
Family
• #1 influence of political
attitude
• Very strong correlation
for Political Party support
Gender
Examples
• More men support military
• More women consider sexual
harassment a serious problem
• Since ’60s, women vote Dem more
than men, and vice versa
• Not as significant of an indicator as
marriage (married vs. unmarried)
Religion
Example
• Protestants are more conservative on
economic matters than Catholics or
Jews
• Catholics tend to be more liberal on
economic issues than they are on
social issues (Catholics becoming
more conservative)
• Liberal minds tend to be LESS
religiously affiliated.
Education
Example
• Higher Education = more
conservative
or
• College education = liberal views
Conflicting results, not always a
correlation
Social Class
• “Blue collar” (Laborer) typically
Democrat
• “White collar” (Businessmen)
typically Republican
Relationship is becoming less
clear: let’s clear it up
Race and Ethnicity
Examples
• African Americans – 90% Democrats
• Hispanic Americans – tend to affiliate with
Democrats, but less likely than African
Americans
• Asian Americans – less liberal than
Hispanic Americans or African Americans,
but still consistently vote Democrat
• White, more divided, fluctuates by election
Geographic Region
Example
• East and West Coasts – more liberal
• Mid-West – more conservative
• Urban - liberal
• South – 1870-1950s - Democrat “Solid South”
but today they are primarily social
conservatives
• White Southerner always less liberal except
for self-serving subsidies…oil, gas, farm,
ranch.
Political Ideology
• Coherent set of values and beliefs
about public policy
• Changes over time for all people
• Liberal and conservative mean
different things at different time
periods
How ideological are
Americans?
• 1950 study – “The American Voter”
• 4 basic types of voter
1. Ideologues – 12% of people connect
their opinions to party lines
2. Group Benefits Voter – 42% of
people connect their opinion to their
“group”. (labor union, interest group,
class, race)
How ideological are
Americans?
of the times voter – 24%
of the people linked good or bad
times to the party in control and
vote the opposite (usually based
on economics).
4. No Issue Content – 22% of the
people could give no reason
3. Nature
Liberal vs. Conservative
• (see handout)
“Neo-Cons”
• Neo-Conservatives
1. Low tax, pro-economic growth
2. Ordered approach to domestic issues
– Traditional values – pro-life, against gay
marriage, support death penalty
3. Expansive foreign policy
•
•
Counter global terrorism – “war on terror”
expensive
Exit Polls
• Polling after voting
• Tommy Bradley effect – in a white vs
non-white election, voters tend to
mislead pollsters in favor of the nonwhite candidate for the sake of
political correctness.