Economic Calendar
August 28, 2015 to September 1, 2015
Jacob Nielsen
GDP Q2 (Aug 27th)
 Most significant measure of economic growth
 Total growth rate of economic output
 Lagging indicator
 Real GDP (adjusted for inflation) increased .6% up
from .4% in the previous quarter
Date
Time
Statistic
GDP-Second
27-Aug 8:30 ET Estimate
For
Q2
Actual
3.7%
Market Expects
3.1%
Prior
Sentiment
2.3%
Very
Good
Personal Income
 Measures income from all sources
 Largest component is wages and salaries
 Both an indicator of economic growth and future
consumer spending
 Not an indicator of consumption but rather possible
consumption
Date
Time
Statistic
For
Actual
Market Expects
Prior
Sentiment
28-Aug
8:30 ET
Personal Income
Jul
0.4%
0.4%
0.4%
Neutral
PCE
 Personal Consumption Expenditure
 Inflationary measure broken down into 3 parts:
durables, nondurables, and services
 Differs from CPI in the fact that the index is a chain
index that accounts for changing consumer behavior
rather than fixed basket of goods
Date
Time
Statistic
PCE Prices28-Aug 8:30 ET
Core
For
Actual
Market Expects
Prior
Sentiment
Jul
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
Neutral
PCE Continued
 Purchases of Durables: +1.3% compared to a decrease
of .9% in June
 Purchases of Non-Durables: +0.1% (same as June)
 Purchases of Services: +0.1% compared to .2% in
June)
Michigan Consumer Sentiment
 Survey conducted by University of Michigan that asks
consumers about expectations of the overall economy
 Indicator of how consumers feel about the economy
 Downside is that it’s a regional survey (even though
Michigan is a major manufacturing region)
Date
Time
28-Aug 8:30 ET
Statistic
For
Actual
Market Expects
Prior
Sentiment
Michigan
Sentiment
Aug
91.9
93.0
92.9
Negative
Chicago PMI
 Chicago Purchasing Manager’s Index
 Regional manufacturing survey that measures
manufacturers sentiment
 Survey is important because it is released just prior to
the national ISM index reading
 Surveys a variety of managers and asks them to
indicate if performance is better, worse, or neutral
compared to previous quarter
Chicago PMI Continued
Date
Time
Statistic
31-Aug 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
For
Actual
Market Expects
Prior
Sentiment
Aug
54.4
54.7
54.7
Negative
ISM Index
 Survey conducted by Institute of Supply Management
of 300 manufacturing firms
 Asks managers about general sentiment with regards
to employment, production, supplier deliveries, and
new orders
 A number greater than 50 indicates growth, and any
number less than 50 indicates contraction
Date
Time
1-Sep 10:00 ET
Statistic
For
Actual
Market Expects
ISM Index
Aug
51.10
52.60
Prior
Sentiment
52.70 Negative
Construction Spending
 Shows change in layout for construction spending
across residential, non-residential, and public projects
 Measure is extremely volatile month to month so the
indicator is not a great measure of economic progress
 Quarterly trends much more valuable measure
Date
Time
Statistic
For
Actual
Market Expects
Prior
Sentiment
1-Sep
10:00
ET
Construction
Spending
Jul
0.7%
0.5%
0.7%
Positive
Yuan/USD
Euro/USD
USD/Yen
Oil Futures
Oil 5 Day
Oil Cont.
 Oil continues to be extremely volatile
 Was up nearly 8 percent yesterday on news that US
inventories had decreased and OPEC was to hold
conference focusing on solutions to the oil price
 Energy markets will continue to follow with the oil price
volatility
10 Year Treasury
Fed Jackson Hole Summit
 Concerned with volatility in foreign markets
 September rate hike unlikely
 Main question focuses on inflation rate
 Dollar will continue to strengthen against other
currencies putting upward pressure on inflation already
 Seems that a rate hike may be closer to December
Chinese Markets
 Chinese manufacturing purchasing manager’s index
fell to three year low
 World continues to doubt prospective economic output
of the world’s second largest economy
 Will this cause china to devalue currency even further?
S&P 5 Day