Campaign Strategies & Tactics:
The Road to the White House
Lessons from the 2012 Presidential
Election
Why Study Campaigns?
• Learn about how to win elections
• Learn about a potential administration:
– Campaign reveals the initial policy agenda.
– Top campaign staff often work later in the White
House.
– Campaign reveals candidate’s leadership style,
especially in communications.
The Long & Winding Road
in American Campaigns
• Presidential system
• Single member
plurality /Winner
take all system
• Two dominant
parties
• Two-stage process
• Independents
Campaign Organizations
• Large specialized
professional staff
– Campaign manager
– Media relations &
strategic
communications
– Scheduling
– Advance work
– Issue research
– Opposition research
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–
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Speech writing
Advertising
Fundraising
Finances
Accounting
Legal advise
Voter targeting &
turnout
– Volunteer coordination
– Polling
Polling
• Importance
• Impact of New Technologies
Polling
• By candidate organizations
– Provides valuable information for strategy &
tactics
• By news media
– Provides information on the status of the race
itself
– Tends to reinforce “horse-race” approach to
election coverage, at the expense of policy
positions
Grassroots Operation
• Field offices in
every state.
• Combined use of
electronic media
and door-to-door
canvassing (“high
tech with high
touch”)
Campaign Strategy
• Strategy is a road map or blue print
• Winston’s definition: “Achieving a
desired outcome using a structured
approach based on understanding
existing and potential environmental
elements and your opponent’s
potential strategies” (p. 24).
The Road Itself: Structural Factors
• Nomination vs.
general election
strategies
• Voter turnout
• Geography
• Incumbency
Race for the 2012 GOP Nomination
• Mitt Romney as
apparent frontrunner
– Had name recognition,
donors & political
organization
– Has experience in both
private & public spheres
– Has personal wealth
• But he was not alone…
• One of the crowd
Crowded Lanes
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Mitt Romney
Ron Paul
Newt Gingrich
Rick Santorum
Rick Perry
Michele Bachmann
Herman Cain
Jon Huntsman
Tim Pawlenty
Crowded Lanes
•
•
•
•
•
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•
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Mitt Romney
Ron Paul
Newt Gingrich
Rick Santorum
Rick Perry
Michele Bachmann
Herman Cain
Jon Huntsman
Crowded Lanes
•
•
•
•
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Mitt Romney
Ron Paul
Newt Gingrich
Rick Santorum
Rick Perry
Michele Bachmann
Herman Cain
Crowded Lanes
•
•
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Mitt Romney
Ron Paul
Newt Gingrich
Rick Santorum
Rick Perry
Michele Bachmann
Less Crowded Lanes
•
•
•
•
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Mitt Romney
Ron Paul
Newt Gingrich
Rick Santorum
Rick Perry
Much Less Crowded Lanes
•
•
•
•
Mitt Romney
Ron Paul
Newt Gingrich
Rick Santorum
Much Less Crowded Lanes
• Mitt Romney
• Ron Paul
• Newt Gingrich
Much Less Crowded Lanes
• Mitt Romney
• Ron Paul
The Republican National
Convention
Tampa Florida, August 27 – 30
• The theme: A Better Future
Nomination Strategies
• Importance of early
victories:
– More convention
delegates available
– Greater media attention
– Increased credibility as a
candidate
– Increased fundraising
• Road hazards:
Meeting high
expectations.
Being seen as too
ideologically extreme
Mending fences after
bitter nomination fight
Voter Turnout
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
1960
1972-1992
1996
2000
2004
2008
2012
62.8
low 50s
49
54
60
62
57.5
Voter Turnout
• Long lines plagued many polling places
Geography
• Fewer “swing” states:
• 1960, every state was considered crucial
• 1976, 30 states were in play, with almost all
the largest states among the swing states.
• 2004, 11 states in play
• 2012, just three considered critical: Ohio,
Florida and Virginia . They drew 2/3 of the
campaign appearances
Focusing on a Few Battleground States
• A Severe Candidate
Warning, from Stephen
Colbert
• http://www.colbertnati
on.com/the-colbertreportvideos/420761/novemb
er-05-2012/colbertsuper-pac---severecandidate-warning
• Daily Show with Jon
Stewart, “Swing State
Hell,” Comedy Central.
http://www.thedailysho
w.com/watch/thunovember-12012/swing-state-hell
Electoral College
Electoral College
• 2012 Impact
Changes post Census • Red States gained 8
• Impact in 2004
– G.W. Bush Example
seats and lost 2
• Blue States gained 4
seats and lost 10
• 12 point GOP advantage
• Clear in House election:
– GOP won 48.2% of vote
– Dems won 49% of vote
Electoral College 2012
Electoral College math on election night, 6
NOVEMBER 2012:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TWYQxM4G
MPY (CNN, 15 minutes)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PypDMuGTz
UA
(CBS News, 4 minutes)
Incumbency Advantages
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Free & regular media coverage
A record to run on; a known quantity
Organizational advantages
“Presidential” persona
Head of the political party
Fundraising advantage
Speech on Libya
Some control over federal resources
No intra-party challenges
Incumbency Disadvantages
• Electorate looking for change; blaming the
president for problems
• Presidential time limited: must handle
demands of governing
• Inability to deliver on earlier promises
14 times, presidents have lost re-election bids
16 times, presidents have won
(including 3 times for FDR)
President Obama as a Candidate
• Record of achievement subject to
interpretation.
• Attacks by the political right and political left
• Supporters expressed loss of idealism & hope.
• Experienced campaign staff.
• Strong organization.
Public Approval of Obama
• Low job approval but high likeability. 3rd year job
approval at 44% and 4th year at 52%. Yet likeability
exceeded 50% & higher than job approval
The Democratic National
Convention
Charlotte, North Carolina, Sept. 4 – 6
David Winston’s Advice
• “Thinking new”
• Five steps to a winning strategy
– Define the desired outcome
• Winning office – specifics
• Winning office by a substantial margin (to get a
mandate to govern”
A Mandate to Govern
• Winning by a substantial margin (60% or
more) creates the idea that the winner’s
policies should be enacted. A mandate is
useful for a new president to claim. News
media reinforce this idea.
• Yet are mandates real in America?
– Voter turnout low
– Voters vote for many reasons
David Winston’s Advice
• “Thinking new”
• Five steps to a winning strategy
– Define the desired outcome
– Develop a situational awareness
Situational Awareness
• Accurately assessing strengths & weaknesses
of your candidate & the opponent
• Understanding the issues voters care about,
and being flexible to change if those issue
concerns change
• Reading the public’s attitude about your party
(the “brand”).
David Winston’s Advice
• “Thinking new”
• Five steps to a winning strategy
– Define the desired outcome
– Develop a situational awareness
– Identify your opponent’s potential strategies
David Winston’s Advice
• “Thinking new”
• Five steps to a winning strategy
– Define the desired outcome
– Develop a situational awareness
– Identify your opponent’s potential strategies
– Define winning coalitions of voters
David Winston’s Advice
• “Thinking new”
• Five steps to a winning strategy
– Define the desired outcome
– Develop a situational awareness
– Identify your opponent’s potential strategies
– Define winning coalitions of voters
– Create a strategic communications plan
Communications Matrix
About the candidate
About the opponent
What we say about:
our issue positions
our opponent’s positions
What they say about:
our issue positions
their own positions
Create a feedback loop
to adjust the strategy as
needed if the political
environment changes.