Status: Criterion 5—Maintenance
of forest contribution to global
carbon cycles
Linda S. Heath
James E. Smith
USDA Forest Service
Northeastern Research Station
Durham, NH, USA
Ken Skog (Indicator 28)
USFS, FPL, Madison, WI
Technical Workshop on the Refinement of the MP Criteria 5
Indicators, 5-6 April, 2005, Atlanta, GA
Forest sector carbon pools and flows
ATMOSPHERE
Growth
decay
decay
HARVESTED
CARBON
Recycling
Removals
processing
decay
burning
Above and Below
STANDING
DEAD
Mortality
Harvest
residue
Litterfall,
Mortality
FOREST
FLOOR
PRODUCTS
disposal
BIOMASS
Treefall
DOWN
DEAD
WOOD
burning
Humification
LANDFILLS
burning
ENERGY
Decomposition
SOIL
Imports/
Exports
Erosion
Land use
change
Nonforest
Soil
Indicators
26. Total forest ecosystem biomass and C
pool, and if appropriate, by forest type, age
class, and successional stages. (Stock)
27. Contribution of forest ecosystems to the
total global C budget, including absorption
and release of C. (Change in C; flux)
28. Contribution of forest products to the global
C budget.
State Department: Need to be consistent with
UNFCCC estimates.
Basic relationships between
indicators
• Ind. 26. Carbon stock = Carbon/Area
x Area
• Ind 27= Ind 26(time2)-Ind 26(time1)
• Ind 28=f(Removals)(utilization
rates)(decay rates)
Conterminous US Forest C pools (Mt), 1997, by
broad forest types and regeneration status
30,000
Carbon pool (Mt)
25,000
20,000
15,000
Aboveground
Belowground
Soil
10,000
5,000
0
N P
Coniferous
N P
Broadleaved
N=Natural regeneration, P=Plantation
Indicator 26
N P
Mixture
N P
Nonstocked/
Chaparral
Conterminous US Forest C, Inds 26&27
30,000
Abovegrd live tree
Abovegrd standing
dead tree
Understory
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
1953 1963 1977 1987 1997
Year
Avg net C pool change per yr (Mt/yr)
Carbon pool (Mt)
25,000
250.0
Down dead wood (incl
stumps)
Forest floor
Abovegrd live tree
Belowground live tree
(roots)
Belowground
150.0dead
wood carbon
Abovegrd standing
dead tree
Understory
200.0
100.0
Down dead wood (incl
stumps)
Forest floor
50.0
0.0
19531962
19631976
19771986
Years of Period
19871996
Belowground live tree
(roots)
Belowground dead
wood carbon
Net carbon pool change per yr (Mt/yr)
Net C changes in harvested wood
pools (Mt/yr) for the US
200
150
Emitted
Energy
100
Landfills
In use
50
0
1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 1997
Year
Includes net imports
Indicator 28
National GHG reporting to UNFCCC
•Annual Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Emissions and
Sinks Inventories (1990-present)
(US Environmental Protection Agency)
- All sectors, we do forest estimates
•Every 5 years,
summary
national
communication
- State Dept.
Public involvement
US forest C stock change, 2003
12% of total U.S. CO2 emissions
250
Mt C/yr
200
Products
Biomass
Dead/FF
150
100
50
0
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002
DRAFT: Smith and Heath for 2005 EPA GHG Inventory
Conform to Everimproving International Reporting
Guidelines
• IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse
Gas Emissions and Sinks (1994-1996)
Reference, Workbook, Reporting
• IPCC Good Practice Guidance for Land Use,
Land Use Change and Forestry (2001-2003)
• IPCC Revision Guidelines (2004-2006) ?
volumes. AFOLU: Agriculture, Forestry, and
Other Land Use
•  Nations need to be consistent with the
methodology in the guidelines
Approach for current Crit 5 estimates
• Use Forest Inventory & Analysis (FIA)
inventory data coupled with a modeling
approach.
• Data from 120,000 field plots, collected by
the USDA FS Forest Inventory & Analysis.
• Models include equations to convert tree
measurements to carbon, equations to
estimate non-tree carbon, to a complex
modeling system to track projections of C
• Model tracks carbon through harvested
wood products (Skog and Nicholson 1998)
Need to do better…
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Units (that is, metric vs english vs mixed)
Soil and belowground carbon
Clear definitions of forest, forest mgmt
Alaska, Hawaii, Territory coverage?
Gross changes, not just net?
Harvested wood
Criteria to choose between estimates from
different approaches?
• Noncarbon greenhouse gases
Methods to determine estimates
• Field measurements with biometric eqns.
• Flux towers/Data fusion
• Models: Ecological/ biogeographical/
biogeochemical/biophysical
• Default IPCC approach—perhaps default
1605b approach
• Uncertainty analysis
• Carbon in Harvested Wood: Modeling—
imports/exports
UNFCCC Reporting – still evolving
• Consistency
• Moving toward full land representation
(forest, cropland, grassland, wetland,
settlement, other)
• Be able to report subcategories (nonforest
becoming forest, forest remaining forest)
• Uncertainties required
• Key source analysis
• Transparency, verification, accuracy,
precision, cost
Painted Hills, OR