Uncertainty Avoidance in 10 minutes
Geert Hofstede
January 2015
Origin of the term “uncertainty avoidance”
One of the key concepts in a “behavioral theory of the firm”
published in 1963 by U.S. management experts Richard Cyert
and James March, applied to the level of organizations
In the 1970s, borrowed by Hofstede for describing
differences between national societies
Uncertainty avoidance as a societal culture dimension
• Extent to which the members of a culture feel
threatened by ambiguous or unknown situations
• Not to be confused with risk avoidance; members of
an uncertainty avoiding culture take risks as long as
they believe they know them
3
Uncertainty Avoiding societies
• The uncertainty inherent in life
is a threat that must be fought
• High stress and anxiety
• Aggression and emotions may
sometimes be vented
• What is different, is dangerous
• Need for rules, even if not
practical and/or not practised
• Formalization
• Adoption of innovations slow
• Staying in the same job
• Xenophobia
Uncertainty Accepting societies
• Uncertainty is normal, life is
accepted as it comes
• Low stress and anxiety
• Aggression and emotions
should be controlled
• What is different, is curious
• Fewer rules, which may be
broken if necessary
• Deregulation
• Adoption of innovations fast
• Changing jobs easily
• Tolerance
How is societal uncertainty avoidance measured?
• There is no absolute standard for uncertainty avoidance
• What we can measure is differences between national
societies
• The position of societies relative to each other is
expressed in an Uncertainty Avoidance Index score (UAI)
• UAI values have been plotted on a scale from 0 to 100;
scores close to 0 stand for weaker, scores close to 100 for
stronger uncertainty avoidance societies
Some Uncertainty Avoidance Index scores, out of 76
High
95 Russia
92 Japan
86 France
82 Mexico
75 Italy
68 Arab ctrs
65 Germany
Low
53 Netherlands
51 Australia
46 U.S.A.
40 India
35 Britain
30 China
23 Denmark
Some examples of what these UAI scores correlate with
Uncertainty Avoiding societies
• Higher speed limits on
motorways
• More alcoholism
• Carrying ID card compulsory
• Fewer nurses per doctor
• In wealthy countries, more
corruption perceived
• Consumers buy more pure
and clean products
• In advertising, more “experts”
Uncertainty Accepting societies
• Lower speed limits on
motorways
• Less alcoholism
• Carrying identity card optional
• More nurses per doctor
• In wealthy countries, less
corruption perceived
• Consumers buy more readymade convenience products
• In advertising, more humor
Uncertainty Avoidance versus Power Distance:
implicit organization models in people’s minds
SMALLER PD, WEAKER UA
NORDIC CTRS
ANGLO CTRS, USA
LARGER PD, WEAKER UA
CHINA
INDIA
NETHERLANDS
GERMAN SPK CTRS
FRANCE, LATIN CTRS
BALTIC STATES
RUSSIA, SE EUROPE
HUNGARY
SMALLER PD, STRONGER UA
JAPAN, KOREA
LARGER PD, STRONGER UA
Don’t the UAI scores change over time ?
• The scores reflect values transferred from parents to children;
these values rarely change after adulthood
• Research by Sjoerd Beugelsdijk comparing answers to the same
questions by two successive generations 30 years apart showed
no worldwide shift and no changes in the position of countries
• Data periodically collected since 1935 suggest that in high UAI
societies, national stress levels oscillated with a wave length of
25-30 years, associated with wars and economic crises
• However, this did not change the rank orders on which the UAI
scores were based