By: Fej Billones Grace Salas Bianca Reyes Economic Principles I. GDP II. GNP I. II. III. IV. V. VI. Problem Statement Relative Importance of the Problem in Various Developing Countries Case Discussion/Recommendation Goals and Objectives References GDP measures output of economic activities within the economic territory of a country. A higher growth rate means a healthier economy; a healthier economy means more investments and a higher employment rate. 1. Production approach calculates the GDP based on industrial origin wherein the domestic economy is divided into 3 productive sectors: a) agriculture, fishery, and forestry; b) industry; and c) services. This approach sums up the value added contribution of each sector to obtain the total contribution to the economy. 2. Expenditure approach sums up personal consumption expenditures of households, government consumption, investment or capital formation, and exports less imports. This approach yields GDP by type of expenditure. Common sources of these data are household expenditures surveys, retail and wholesale trade surveys, producer surveys, customs records, government accounts, and special surveys done by the statistical centers. Both the production and expenditure approaches must yield the same results of GDP (Table 1). This is because: Output from prod’n of goods + services = total expenditures on goods and services Output (production approach) is either consumed and/or saved (expenditure approach) Nominal GDP: GDP at current prices Real GDP or GDP at constant prices inflation adjustment of GDP: adjust the Nominal GDP figure for the increase in prices that occurred from one period to the next Non-productive activities Goods and services that cannot be measured using market prices. Examples of these are services of housewives, production of illegal gambling such as jueteng, drugs and prostitution. Informal sector Refers to the sidewalk vendors and home-based businesses that may opt to understate their income Also refers to illegal activities gambling and drugs Environmental cost Environment as casualties of development: soil erosion, dying forest because of logging, water pollution because of mining, among others Social cost The OFWs earn dollars to meet the needs of their families but their absence has resulted in broken homes and dysfunctional family. GDP is neither a measure of material well-being nor an indicator of welfare. 57% -Services are the biggest sector of the Filipino economy Within services the most important segments are: 70% trade, repair of motor vehicles and household goods (17% of total GDP); 11% real estate, renting and business activities; 8% transport, storage and communication; 7% financial services and 4% public administration, defense and social security. 31% -Industry accounts: Electronics assembly, garments, footwear, pharmaceuticals, chemicals, wood products, food processing, petroleum refining, fishing Manufacturing (22 percent of total GDP) and 5% construction 12%- Agriculture Products: sugarcane, coconuts, rice, corn, bananas, cassava (manioc, tapioca), pineapples, mangoes; pork, eggs, beef; fish Debt-steered growth in the 1970s Economic growth was decent in the 1970s, averaging at 5.7 percent. But growth in that decade was driven by aggressive foreign borrowings, which were encouraged by multilateral institutions to build up dollars in light of successive oil shocks. The foreign borrowings resulted not only in public spending growth in infrastructure but also in deficits. Sedentary growth in the 1980s The 1980s was both the “dark ages”and “renaissance” in the Philippine economy. Political unrest, economy slid from 5.1 percent in 1980 to 3 percent level to 1.9 percent before it plummeted negative 7.3 percent. Demise of Ferdinand Marcos thru 1986 EDSA Revolution, rise of Corazon Aquino to power, the economy bounced to 3.4 percent before it reached the respectable 6 percent level. Last 4 years of 1980 were spent battling foreign debt and restoring investors’ confidence; and framing/ ratifying the new Constitution, fighting military unrest. Recovery in the 1990 •Economy averaged 2.8% growth, a rebound from average 2% growth in 1980s. Studded by natural disasters (1990 earthquake, 1991 Mount Pinatubo eruption), power crisis, El Niño and Asian crisis. The economy once again suffered sharp reversals before the end of Cory administration. •But with the Ramos administration’s aggressive effort to rebuild momentum through privatization of government enterprises, more pronounced public-private partnerships and substantial reforms under the Ramos administration. •Deregulations in the sectors of banking, oil telecommunications and airlines also paved the way for more industry players. These efforts paid off as the economy hit 4-percent and 5-percent levels. But in 1997, the economy amid its recovery was interrupted by the Asian crisis. From a high 5.8 percent, the economy slid to negative 0.6 percent. Still a fickle growth in the 2000s •The economy recovered from the Asian crisis in the 2001 as it rebounded to 6 percent. But after the external shock that was the Asian crisis, the economy braced yet another series. First was the fiscal crisis. This resulted from the government’s decision to bail out the National Power Corporation’s debt of P200 billion. •Eventually, the Philippines got “out of the woods” and enjoyed over 5-percent level growth from 2004 to2006. In 2007, the economy posted a 7.2-percent growth, the highest since 1988. But in 2008, the economy was again battered by challenges, the rice and food crisis in first quarter, oil crisis in the second quarter and global crisis in the second quarter. •The economy rebounded by the end of 2009 and it again posted a record high growth of 7.9 percent in the first semester of 2010. Philippines is ranked # 29 in the world in 2014 Philippines is ranked # 29 in the world in 2014 Philippines is ranked # 25 in the world in 2014 GNP (Gross National Product) is the total market value of all final goods and services produced within a given period by factors of production owned by a country’s citizens, regardless of where the output is produced. GNI (Gross National Income) is GNP converted into dollars using an average of currency exchange rates over several years adjusted for rates of inflation. (It uses Worldbank Atlas method for the conversion) The Expenditure Approach The Income Approach GDP = C + I + G + (EX - IM) GDP = National Income Where in: C = Personal consumption expenditures (Durable Goods, Non-durable Goods and Services) I = Gross private domestic investment (Nonresidential, residential, change in business inventories) G = Government consumption and gross investment EX = Exports IM = Imports Where in National Income includes: Compensation of Employees Proprietor’s income Rental Income Corporate Profits Net Interest Indirect taxes subsidies Net business Transfer Surplus/Income of gov’t enterprises GNP = GDP + Net factor income from abroad GNP is being reported by: Philippine National Statistical Coordination Board. Is the GNP being used now accurate? Current Formula: GNP = GDP + net factor income from the rest of the world The current GNP computation may not be measuring the real economic value of a country. Role of Women Services that working women provide for industry and commerce continue to add to the value of GNP. However, the service of the women in their household is not being accounted for. Why is it a problem: GNP is understated due to unaccounted service Public sector vs. Private Sector Some of the public goods/service tend to be overvalued compared to private goods/service. E.g. expenses of DSWD. Why is it a problem: GNP is overstated Military Expenditure Increasing military expenditure (monetary transactions) add to the GNP however its not productive to the economy Why is it a problem: GNP is overstated Exploitation of irreplaceable resources The usage of natural resources add up to the GNP. However, depletion of natural resources is not being accounted for. Why is it a problem: GNP is overstated Environmental Considerations The operations by private industries/factories add up to the GNP of the country. However, the negative impact on the environment is not accounted for. Why is it a problem: GNP is overstated 1. What do you think should be taken off national accounts to arrive at a real measure of progress? 2. Role of Women: Female Population in PH Role of Women: The report does not show the labor being taken by women at home. How can we measure it even? The house helper can be used as a measurement of calculating the value that these women produce. Proposed computation: Monthly salary of helper x multiply by the number of stay home mothers Public Sector and Private Sector Military Expenditure Gov’t should only include expenditure with economic impact. If they add more budget for Defense, its not a guarantee that enemies would decrease. Or worst, the more they add, the more enemies to face. Benefit is hard to measure Exploitation of irreplaceable resources Environmental Considerations Mineral reserves and the processing time can be identified . There is always corresponding depletion on it. Firms should measure the “net reserve” to get the real economic value of any irreplaceable resources. E.q. (for identified health prob) Total Production xx Expenses on impact of the production xx Net of production xx E.q. Mineral Reserves Depletion Net Reserve xx (xx) xx _ If the main cause of any epidemic disease or any health problem in the area is pollution, the government should less this environmental cost to the actual production done by these manufacturing companies. # 3. Physical Quality of Index Includes 3 indicators - Life expectancy - Infant mortality rate - Literacy rate - Uses a scale of 1 to 100 - Relates fruits of economic growth with human betterment - Analyzes nature of distribution of income - Does not include social/psychological properties e.g. security, justice & human rights - Need to normalize the indicators - Life expectancy - measured in terms of years - Infant mortality rate - in terms of per thousand - Basic literacy rate - in terms of percentage. PQLI - Philippines is ranked # 59 in the world in 2014 Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 Country Switzerland United States Germany Sweden Finland Denmark Canada Australia United Arab Emirates Austria New Zealand Japan Norway Netherlands United Kingdom Estonia Ireland Kuwait Saudi Arabia France Belgium Slovenia Portugal Puerto Rico Spain Czech Republic Lithuania South Korea Taiwan South Africa Quality of Life Index 206.23 195.55 192.69 180.92 178.88 178.55 178.29 175.98 173.27 171.82 168.56 168.47 168.41 160.98 150.97 145.4 142.35 141.37 139.88 136.31 134.71 125.56 124.71 123.64 123.64 122.99 121.91 117.9 114.06 111.61 Rank 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 Quality of Life Index 108.74 108.7 95.19 91.94 91.16 90.61 89.05 87.99 83.47 83.18 81.12 78.01 77.48 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 Country Slovakia Croatia Poland Uruguay Israel Italy Malaysia Singapore Mexico Hungary Argentina India Greece Bosnia And Herzegovina Belarus Hong Kong Chile Serbia Turkey Romania Bulgaria Thailand Ecuador Kazakhstan Jordan Brazil Colombia China 59 Philippines 28.09 60 Pakistan 22.32 44 74.6 74.43 73.24 69.32 69.31 67.82 63.27 62.6 56.64 42.25 40.64 39.54 38.76 36.53 30.3 # 4. A combination of GDP, GNP and PQLI can be used to evaluate the economic welfare of countries. An alternative is to use: - Measure of Economic Welfare MEW = Value of GDP + Value of Leisure Time + Value Unpaid Work – Value of Environmental Damage Index of Sustainable Economic Welfare ISEW = Personal Expenditure + Public Expenditure (excluding defense) + Value of Unpaid Work – Private Defense – Value of Environmental Damage - of Majority of global growth for the rest of this decade will happen in the developing world! “Emerging markets" have accounted for more than half of world GDP for the first time since two centuries ago. -Financial Times, 2013 Across Asia demographics variation is significant (% under age 14 : ave. age) - Aging Populations: China (17.3% : 36.6), Japan (13.1% : 45.4) , Singapore (13.8% : 33.5), Taiwan (27.3% : 38.1), HK (11.6% : 43.9), Thai land (19.9% : 34.7), - Growth or Young Populations: Vietnam (25.2% : 28.2), Philippines (34.6% : 23.1), Indonesia (27.3% : 28.5), Malaysia (29.63% : 27.1), Burma (27.5% : 27.2), Aging Populations Non-Aging Populations 2013 Source: BIS Sharpnel, Datamonitor,Euromonitor 2027 IV. Relative importance of the problem in various developing countries Global Perspective Emerging markets in Asia and Africa still reign supreme: They're at the top of global growth projections over the next two years. China, Philippines, Kenya, India & Indonesia, which together make up about 16 percent of global gross domestic product, are all forecast to grow more than 5 percent in 2015. GDP may be an inaccurate indicator in the developing (and may still also be the poorest) countries: a concern for policymakers or for anyone who wants to use statistics to help the world’s poorest people -Bill Gates Developing countries do not update their reporting often enough, so their GDP numbers may miss large and fast-growing economic sectors, like cell phones Real progress is not measured accurately Standard of living may not be in sync with economic growth The goal is to have an accurate indicator/ measure of a nation’s overall economic value. GNP measures income, but not equality, it measures growth, but not destruction, and it ignores values like social cohesion and the environment. GNP has to be supplemented with other essential indicators for quality of life/ overall living standards: Childhood and maternal death rates Human Development Index : health and education statistics Multidimensional Poverty Index : indicators for nutrition, sanitation, and access to cooking fuel and water Purchasing power parity: cost of the same basket of goods and services in different countries http://knoema.com/nwnfkne/world-gdp-ranking-2014-data-and-charts http://www.economicsconcepts.com/physical_quantity_of_life_index.htm http://www.preservearticles.com/201107119036/brief-notes-on-physical-quality-of-life-indexpqli.html http://www.numbeo.com/quality-of-life/rankings.jsp http://www.economicsonline.co.uk/Global_economics/Measure_of_economic_welfare_MEW.ht ml National Economic and Development Authority. 2006. 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