ITU Regional Workshop on “Bridging the Standardization Gap for CIS States” (Chişinău, Moldova, 7 October 2011 ) Future Networks John Visser, CD, P.Eng. +1 613 276 6096 jvisser@rogers.com Chişinău, Moldova, 7 October 2011 Outline Changes and Discontinuities Where Should Intelligence Reside? SG 13 Work on “Future Networks” Some Thoughts on the Future Chişinău, Moldova, 7 October 2011 2 Fundamental Changes in Telecoms Started with Telegraph Data (Morse code) Chişinău, Moldova, 7 October 2011 3 Fundamental Changes in Telecoms Telegraph Telephone Manual to mechanical to software switching Analog to TDM to IP Chişinău, Moldova, 7 October 2011 4 Fundamental Changes in Telecoms Telegraph Telephone Data Circuit-based, non-switched Packet data IP Chişinău, Moldova, 7 October 2011 5 Fundamental Changes in Telecoms Telegraph Telephone Data Internet and the WWW IP Chişinău, Moldova, 7 October 2011 6 Everything Over IP and IP Over Everything Any Service & Every Service Internet Protocol (IP) Any Transport & Every Transport Technology Chişinău, Moldova, 7 October 2011 7 Telecommunications Industry: Constant Innovation VoIP and Converged Communications Wireless to WiMAX/4G/LTE Wireline to Wireless Copper to Fiber Analog to Digital Chişinău, Moldova, 7 October 2011 Change comes from disruption. And disruption is constant! 8 Discontinuities Transition from Fixed to Mobile Growth of fixed services slowing, turning negative Mobile phone growth continues but levelling off due to market saturation Chişinău, Moldova, 7 October 2011 9 Discontinuities Transition from Analog to Data On circuit-switched (analog or TDM) voice networks, data is handled by making it look like voice (modems) Phone Network On packet switched data networks, voice is handled by making it look like data (VoIP) Data Network Chişinău, Moldova, 7 October 2011 10 Discontinuities and Convergence Once we just had a telephone on our desks. Then we added a computer mainframe terminal, but replaced that with a personal computer … … which became portable (laptop), … … we added wireless networking including voice, but we shrunk them a little too much … … so we enlarged them to just about the right size. Chişinău, Moldova, 7 October 2011 11 Outline Changes and Discontinuities Where Should Intelligence Reside? SG 13 Work on “Future Networks” Some Thoughts on the Future Chişinău, Moldova, 7 October 2011 12 Intelligence was centralized, but is it in the right place? We began with human operators “inside the network” handling switching and services for “hard-wired” subscribers, … ... “progressed” to analog mechanical circuit switching (SxS), ... ... refined it with stored program control (#5 XBar, SP1), ... Chişinău, Moldova, 7 October 2011 13 We continued with the assumption that terminals were “dumb” … We converted from analog to digital transmission and switching. We centralized network intelligence into with replicated islands of intelligence enabled by common channel signalling. Chişinău, Moldova, 7 October 2011 14 … but ISDN and Mobility changed everything! Suddenly terminals had to be able to do a great deal more: A functional ISDN terminal is a de facto 2 line exchange! Cellular networks added a new dimension to what terminals had to do: Mobility! Chişinău, Moldova, 7 October 2011 15 Evolution! We’ve gone from one extreme to the other: Start: all intelligence in the network and none at the edges “dumb” terminals Advances in technology enabled “Bell-heads” intelligence to migrate to terminals connected to a “dumb” network Neither end of the pendulum swing is ideal … Chişinău, Moldova, 7 October 2011 “Net-heads” 16 Outline Changes and Discontinuities Where Should Intelligence Reside? SG 13 Work on “Future Networks” Some Thoughts on the Future Chişinău, Moldova, 7 October 2011 17 ITU-T SG 13 - Future Networks including Mobile and NGN WP 5/13 Future Networks Q.7/13 Impact of IPv6 to an NGN Q.19/13 Distributed services networking (DSN) Q.20/13 Public data networks Q.21/13 Future networks Rec. Y.3001 Future Networks: Objectives and Design goals Approved May 2011 Chişinău, Moldova, 7 October 2011 18 An overview… 4 Objectives and 12 Design Goals 4 Objectives Service-awareness Data-awareness Environmentawareness Social and economic awareness Chişinău, Moldova, 7 October 2011 Realization Functions appropriate to service needs Huge volumes, widely distributed Energy efficient, recyclable materials; displace energy intensive activities Reduced barriers to entry, reduced life cycle costs 19 Relationship between Objectives and Design Goals Fig. 1/Rec. Y.3001 Chişinău, Moldova, 7 October 2011 20 Future Networks – More on the 12 Design Goals Service diversity Functional flexibility Virtualization of resources Data access Chişinău, Moldova, 7 October 2011 Diverse traffic: a few bps to ≥Gbps; delay (in)tolerant; simple sensors to complex terminals Agility in deploying new services Efficiencies, commonalities Very high capacity for consumer generated volume 21 Future Networks – Design Goals Energy consumption Service universalization Economic incentives Network management Chişinău, Moldova, 7 October 2011 Full life cycle for equipment; lower energy technologies and conservation Available to everyone Competition through standards and open interfaces Flexible, enough capacity, simple, self configuring 22 Future Networks – Design Goals Mobility Optimization Identification Reliability and Security Chişinău, Moldova, 7 October 2011 Full mobility for large scale and high speed networks Optimize capacity for service requirements New schema for many more devices Designed-in, including user privacy 23 Outline Changes and Discontinuities Where Should Intelligence Reside? SG 13 Work on “Future Networks” Some Thoughts on the Future Chişinău, Moldova, 7 October 2011 24 Advances 1889 to 1950 Automobile Refrigeration Electricity Telephone 1950 to 2011 Jet plane Man on the moon Computer Internet What advances will we make between today and 2072? Chişinău, Moldova, 7 October 2011 25 Some Key Developments Computing technology advances enable more powerful, faster computers Today’s personal computer is yesterday’s super computer Technology applied in handsets: as powerful as desktop PCs a few years ago Chişinău, Moldova, 7 October 2011 26 Irreversible Changes Enterprise-Driven Consumer-Driven Hardware-Centric Software-Centric Wireline Wireless People to Machines Machine to Machine Peripheral Security Embedded Proprietary Interfaces Open (incl. Policy) Trusted Change is constant: adapt and adopt! Chişinău, Moldova, 7 October 2011 27 Megatrends Mega trends are defining a new era: Hyper-connectivity Network-aware applications and applications-aware networks True Broadband Wired Carrier Infrastructure Applications Enterprise Wireless Technology is all about enabling users to do what they want to do! The world is rapidly becoming Hyperconnected! Chişinău, Moldova, 7 October 2011 28 Hyperconnectivity Anything that can be usefully connected will be connected Chişinău, Moldova, 7 October 2011 29 Communications-Enabled Applications • Reinvention of services and applications to support new levels of network-aware intelligence and an intuitive interaction experience • Achieve through advanced technology frameworks such as IMS and Services Oriented Architecture (SOA) Chişinău, Moldova, 7 October 2011 30 True Broadband • • The communications experience is so seamless that users no longer have to consider which technology is being used to make a connection. Users simply communicate, anywhere, anytime from whichever device is most convenient. Most importantly, the broadband experience becomes so economical that the range of uses exceeds any experience of the past. Chişinău, Moldova, 7 October 2011 31 Three Phases of M2M Services From T. Norp (TNO/KPN) presentation at ETSI M2M Workshop, 19-20 Oct 2010 Chişinău, Moldova, 7 October 2011 32 Machine Type Communications “The Internet of Things” (2005) Disproportionate impact of data applications From S1-112284: 3GPP TR 22.801 V0.3.0 (2011-08) www.3gpp.org/ftp/tsg_sa/WG1_Serv/TSGS1_55_Dublin/Docs/S1-112284.zip Chişinău, Moldova, 7 October 2011 33 When Engineering Meets Medicine An example of a new data application on a smart phone UBC Engineering Faculty publication, “Ingenuity”, Spring/Summer 2011 (not yet posted) hwww.engineering.ubc.ca/news-events/newsletters/ Article is also available from the UBC Faculty of Medicine web site: www.med.ubc.ca/media/med_mag/Spring_2011/When_engineering_meets_medicine.htm Chişinău, Moldova, 7 October 2011 34 Advances 1950 to 2011 Jet plane Man on the moon Computer Internet Chişinău, Moldova, 7 October 2011 2011 to 2072 Ubiquitous broadband Hyperconnectivity Internet of Things Robotics 35 In Closing: Some Quotations “We always over-estimate the change that will occur in the next two years, and underestimate the change that will occur in the next ten years.” * “When you get to a fork in the road, take it!” ** “Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future.” *** Chişinău, Moldova, 7 October 2011 * Bill Gates, Microsoft Corporation ** Yogi Berra, American baseball player *** Niels Bohr, Danish Physicist 36 Thank you for your attention! John Visser, CD, P.Eng. +1 613 276 6096 jvisser@rogers.com Chişinău, Moldova, 7 October 2011 37