ITU Regional Workshop on
“Bridging the Standardization Gap for CIS States”
(Chişinău, Moldova, 7 October 2011 )
Future Networks
John Visser, CD, P.Eng.
+1 613 276 6096
jvisser@rogers.com
Chişinău, Moldova, 7 October 2011
Outline
Changes and Discontinuities
Where Should Intelligence Reside?
SG 13 Work on “Future Networks”
Some Thoughts on the Future
Chişinău, Moldova, 7 October 2011
2
Fundamental Changes in Telecoms
Started with Telegraph
Data (Morse code)
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Fundamental Changes in Telecoms
Telegraph
Telephone
Manual to mechanical
to software switching
Analog to TDM to IP
Chişinău, Moldova, 7 October 2011
4
Fundamental Changes in Telecoms
Telegraph
Telephone
Data
Circuit-based, non-switched
Packet data
IP
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Fundamental Changes in Telecoms
Telegraph
Telephone
Data
Internet and
the WWW
IP
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Everything Over IP and
IP Over Everything
Any Service
&
Every Service
Internet Protocol
(IP)
Any Transport
&
Every Transport Technology
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Telecommunications Industry:
Constant Innovation
VoIP and Converged
Communications
Wireless to
WiMAX/4G/LTE
Wireline to Wireless
Copper to Fiber
Analog to Digital
Chişinău, Moldova, 7 October 2011
Change comes from disruption.
And disruption is constant!
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Discontinuities
Transition from Fixed to Mobile
Growth of fixed services slowing,
turning negative
Mobile phone growth continues but
levelling off due to market saturation
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Discontinuities
Transition from Analog to Data
On circuit-switched (analog or TDM) voice
networks, data is handled by making it look
like voice (modems)
Phone
Network
On packet switched data networks, voice is
handled by making it look like data (VoIP)
Data
Network
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Discontinuities and Convergence
Once we just had a telephone on our desks.
Then we added a computer mainframe terminal,
but replaced that with a personal computer …
… which became portable (laptop), …
… we added wireless networking including voice,
but we shrunk them a
little too much …
… so we enlarged
them to just about
the right size.
Chişinău, Moldova, 7 October 2011
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Outline
Changes and Discontinuities
Where Should Intelligence
Reside?
SG 13 Work on “Future Networks”
Some Thoughts on the Future
Chişinău, Moldova, 7 October 2011
12
Intelligence was centralized,
but is it in the right place?
We began with human operators
“inside the network” handling
switching and services for
“hard-wired” subscribers, …
... “progressed” to analog
mechanical circuit switching (SxS), ...
... refined it with
stored program
control
(#5 XBar, SP1), ...
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We continued with the assumption
that terminals were “dumb” …
We converted from
analog to digital
transmission and
switching.
We centralized
network intelligence
into with replicated
islands of intelligence
enabled by common
channel signalling.
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… but ISDN and Mobility
changed everything!
Suddenly terminals had to be able to
do a great deal more:
A functional ISDN terminal is a
de facto 2 line exchange!
Cellular networks added
a new dimension to
what terminals had
to do:
Mobility!
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Evolution!
We’ve gone from one
extreme to the other:
Start: all intelligence in the network and
none at the edges “dumb” terminals
Advances in technology enabled
“Bell-heads”
intelligence to migrate to terminals
connected to a “dumb” network
Neither end of the pendulum
swing is ideal …
Chişinău, Moldova, 7 October 2011
“Net-heads”
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Outline
Changes and Discontinuities
Where Should Intelligence Reside?
SG 13 Work on “Future
Networks”
Some Thoughts on the Future
Chişinău, Moldova, 7 October 2011
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ITU-T SG 13 - Future Networks
including Mobile and NGN
WP 5/13 Future Networks
Q.7/13 Impact of IPv6 to an NGN
Q.19/13 Distributed services
networking (DSN)
Q.20/13 Public data networks
Q.21/13 Future networks
Rec. Y.3001 Future Networks: Objectives
and Design goals
Approved May 2011
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An overview…
4 Objectives and 12 Design Goals
4 Objectives
Service-awareness
Data-awareness
Environmentawareness
Social and economic
awareness
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Realization
Functions appropriate
to service needs
Huge volumes, widely
distributed
Energy efficient,
recyclable materials;
displace energy
intensive activities
Reduced barriers to
entry, reduced life
cycle costs
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Relationship between Objectives
and Design Goals
Fig. 1/Rec. Y.3001
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Future Networks –
More on the 12 Design Goals
Service diversity
Functional flexibility
Virtualization of
resources
Data access
Chişinău, Moldova, 7 October 2011
Diverse traffic: a
few bps to ≥Gbps;
delay (in)tolerant;
simple sensors to
complex terminals
Agility in deploying
new services
Efficiencies,
commonalities
Very high capacity
for consumer
generated volume
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Future Networks –
Design Goals
Energy
consumption
Service
universalization
Economic incentives
Network
management
Chişinău, Moldova, 7 October 2011
Full life cycle for
equipment; lower
energy technologies
and conservation
Available to
everyone
Competition
through standards
and open interfaces
Flexible, enough
capacity, simple,
self configuring
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Future Networks –
Design Goals
Mobility
Optimization
Identification
Reliability and
Security
Chişinău, Moldova, 7 October 2011
Full mobility for
large scale and high
speed networks
Optimize capacity
for service
requirements
New schema for
many more devices
Designed-in,
including user
privacy
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Outline
Changes and Discontinuities
Where Should Intelligence Reside?
SG 13 Work on “Future Networks”
Some Thoughts on the Future
Chişinău, Moldova, 7 October 2011
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Advances
1889 to 1950
Automobile
Refrigeration
Electricity
Telephone
1950 to 2011
Jet plane
Man on the moon
Computer
Internet
What advances will we make
between today and 2072?
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Some Key Developments
Computing technology
advances enable more
powerful, faster
computers
Today’s personal
computer is
yesterday’s super
computer
Technology applied in
handsets: as powerful
as desktop PCs a few
years ago
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Irreversible Changes
Enterprise-Driven
Consumer-Driven
Hardware-Centric
Software-Centric
Wireline
Wireless
People to Machines
Machine to Machine
Peripheral Security
Embedded
Proprietary Interfaces
Open (incl. Policy)
Trusted
Change is constant: adapt and adopt!
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Megatrends
Mega trends are
defining a new era:
Hyper-connectivity
Network-aware
applications and
applications-aware
networks
True Broadband
Wired
Carrier
Infrastructure
Applications
Enterprise
Wireless
Technology is all about enabling users to
do what they want to do!
The world is rapidly becoming Hyperconnected!
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Hyperconnectivity
Anything that can be usefully connected
will be connected
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Communications-Enabled Applications
•
Reinvention of services and
applications to support new levels of
network-aware intelligence and
an intuitive interaction experience
•
Achieve through advanced technology
frameworks such as IMS and Services
Oriented Architecture (SOA)
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True Broadband
•
•
The communications experience is so
seamless that users no longer have to
consider which technology is being
used to make a connection.
Users simply communicate,
anywhere, anytime from whichever
device is most convenient. Most
importantly, the broadband experience
becomes so economical that the range of
uses exceeds any experience of the past.
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Three Phases of M2M Services
From T. Norp (TNO/KPN)
presentation at ETSI
M2M Workshop, 19-20
Oct 2010
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Machine Type Communications
“The Internet of Things” (2005)
Disproportionate impact of
data applications
From S1-112284: 3GPP TR 22.801 V0.3.0 (2011-08)
www.3gpp.org/ftp/tsg_sa/WG1_Serv/TSGS1_55_Dublin/Docs/S1-112284.zip
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When Engineering Meets Medicine
An example of a new data application
on a smart phone
UBC Engineering Faculty publication, “Ingenuity”, Spring/Summer 2011 (not yet posted)
hwww.engineering.ubc.ca/news-events/newsletters/
Article is also available from the UBC Faculty of Medicine web site:
www.med.ubc.ca/media/med_mag/Spring_2011/When_engineering_meets_medicine.htm
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Advances
1950 to 2011
Jet plane
Man on the moon
Computer
Internet
Chişinău, Moldova, 7 October 2011
2011 to 2072
Ubiquitous
broadband
Hyperconnectivity
Internet of Things
Robotics
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In Closing: Some Quotations
“We always over-estimate the
change that will occur in the next
two years, and underestimate the
change that will occur in the next ten
years.” *
“When you get to a fork in the road,
take it!” **
“Prediction is very difficult, especially
about the future.” ***
Chişinău, Moldova, 7 October 2011
*
Bill Gates, Microsoft Corporation
** Yogi Berra, American baseball player
*** Niels Bohr, Danish Physicist
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Thank you for
your attention!
John Visser, CD, P.Eng.
+1 613 276 6096
jvisser@rogers.com
Chişinău, Moldova, 7 October 2011
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