CONFLICT AND COMPROMISE
and Public Opinion
Public Protest on Health Care
Obama on Health Care
Political Messages Fuel the Debate
The Tea Party Influence
Doctors Weigh In
Signing the Reform Bill
What is Public Opinion?
• Citizens’ opinions about politics and
government actions
• Why does public opinion matter?
– Explains the behavior of citizens and public
officials
– Motivates both citizens and public officials
– Helps explain policy outcomes
Early Theories of Public Opinion
– Original studies showed individual opinions as
inconsistent, non-ideological, and uninformed.
– Some modern studies still confirm many of
these initial findings.
The New Theory of Public Opinion
• 3 Criticisms of Early Studies
1. It isn’t surprising that many people don’t
think much about politics.
2. Opinions have been more consistent since
the original studies in the 1950s.
3. Most importantly, the original studies were
looking for the wrong thing.
What Is Public Opinion?
• Some opinions are formed early and remain
stable throughout a lifetime
• Others are more fluid and vary with events
(latent opinions)
What Is Public Opinion?
Surveying Political Principles
Liberal–Conservative Ideology in
America
Approval Ratings for President
Barack Obama, 2009–2010
Fears of Terrorist Attack
Where Do Opinions Come From?
• Political Socialization: A process whereby
political opinions are shaped by one’s
parents, family, community, and culture
• Events
• Group Identity
• Political Realignment
Where Do Opinions Come From?
Where Do Opinions Come From?
Politicians and Public Opinion
Sampling Error in Mass Surveys
Measuring Public Opinion
• Problems Measuring Public Opinion
– Face-to-face interviewing is best, but it is
difficult to generate a random sample.
– Random digit dialing is useful, but the inability
to call cell phone numbers may be a problem.
– Robo-polls face criticism and doubts about
sample selection.
The Impact of Question Wording:
Attitudes on Abortion
The Impact of Question Wording: Attitudes
on Abortion
Measuring Public Opinion
• The Accuracy of Public Opinion
– Some of the claims that the public are
exceptionally ill-informed assume that people
take surveys very seriously when, in fact, they
may not.
– The more relevant the survey question is to
one’s everyday life, the more seriously the
respondent tends to treat the question.
Measuring Public Opinion
• Survey results are most believable when:
– The many problems with surveys are taken
seriously by the survey developer.
– The questions are simple to understand.
– The topic is familiar.
– Multiple surveys confirm the same result.
Liberal–Conservative Ideology in
America, 1970–2006
Party Identification in America, 1970–
2006
Measuring American Public Opinion:
Examples of Principles
Measuring American Public Opinion:
Examples of Principles
Measuring American Public Opinion:
Beliefs about Government
Trust in Government
Trust in Government
Approval of Presidents, Senators,
Governors, Congress, and Trust In
Government
Generic Approval and Consumer
Sentiment
Policy Mood
Perceptions of The Wars in Iraq and
Afghanistan
Characteristics of American Public
Opinion
• Economic Conditions
• Americans are almost always worried about the economy.
• But what is “the economy”?
– Gas prices
– Unemployment
– Grocery prices
– Stock market
– Home prices (the home is the most valuable asset most
people possess)
Americans’ Diagnoses of The Most
Important Economic Problems
Americans’ Diagnoses of The Most
Important Economic Problems
Public Opinion on Health Care
Reform, 2009–2010
The Partisan Split Over Global
Warming
Generational and Partisan
Differences on Gay Rights
Does Public Opinion Matter?
• If not, then politicians, journalists, and
political scientists spend a lot of time
worrying about it for nothing.
• Some argue that the political process often
ignores broad swaths of people, and this
means that public opinion does not matter.
Public Opinion Poll
Do you agree or disagree that the policies of the
U.S. government represent the preferences and
opinions of the American people?
a)
b)
c)
d)
Strongly agree
Agree
Disagree
Strongly disagree
Public Opinion Poll
Americans vary enormously in their knowledge
about government and politics, yet we treat all
opinions as having equal weight. Should
everyone’s political opinions be treated
equally?
a) Yes
b) No
Public Opinion Poll
Do you believe the majority of your political opinions
are based on a full understanding of the issues?
a) Yes
b) No
Public Opinion Poll
Which of the following political values do you
believe is most important?
a) Equality of opportunity
b) Liberty
c) Democracy
Public Opinion Poll
Which of the following do you feel has had the
greatest influence on your political values?
a)
b)
c)
d)
Family
Social groups (racial, religious, national)
Education
Political conditions/experiences
Public Opinion Poll
Some commentators have pointed out that much of
America is “purple,” rather than “red” or “blue.”
To what extent do you agree or disagree that
the red state/blue state stereotypes apply to
your state?
a)
b)
c)
d)
Strongly agree
Agree
Disagree
Strongly Disagree
Chapter 5: Public Opinion
• Practice quizzes
• Flashcards
• Outlines
wwnorton.com/studyspace
Following this slide, you will find additional
slides with photos, figures, and captions from
the textbook.
Tracking Events and Public Opinion,
2004–2010
Early Theories of Public Opinion
The New Theory of Public Opinion
Where Do Opinions Come From?
Measuring Public Opinion