Jan. 20, 2010
Jeff Fletcher

• Service experiences
– Recyclemania and/or Garden Preparation
• Attending outside events for Extra Credit
– MLK Service Day—how did it go?
– See EcoWiki events calendar
– Food Inc. Showing - 1/31, 8pm, Ondine Lobby
– Howard Rheingold
• 1 on 1 meetings; who did I miss?
• Reminder: Read Kolbert Chapters 5, 6, 7
– (p. 93-149)
• Mentor Session Today
– Peer Review of Carbon Footprint
– Early term evaluations
• Put up Sustainability Autobiography “maps”
• BE SURE TO VOTE!!

• What makes a system?
– Elements and Relations
– order vs. disorder
– system vs. environment
• Systems States and Dynamics
– Equilibria, Stability
• Positive and Negative Feedbacks
– Non-linear dynamics
• Chaos Theory, Catastrophe Theory
– Emergence
– Structure
• Open vs. Closed
• Matter, Energy, Information

• For instance, temperature or composition of atmospheric system
• How systems change states over time is called dynamics
• Equilibria
– Stable vs. Unstable
– Static vs. Dynamic
– Positive and Negative Feedbacks ( aphids )
• Exponential growth example of + feedback
• Homeostasis example of - feedback

• Most models of systems are linear
– Change in state predicted to be proportional to change in inputs
• Most real and complex systems are non-linear
– Systems with feedback are often unpredictable
– Small causes can have big effects
• Butterfly effect from Chaos theory
• Catastrophe theory : state is not reversible by reversing cause
– Current financial crisis is great example
• Emergence

• Is CO2 effect proportional to its abundance in atmosphere?
– What proportion is CO2 ?
• Caution in reading graphs
• What is ppm in percent?
– nitrogen (78%), oxygen (21%) and argon (.93%) = 99.93% of atmosphere!
• Methane also has disproportionate effects
• Ozone hole: example of unintended consequences and irreversibility ( video )
– Big hole until 2017, then hole will start to shrink; back to 1980 level in year 2070!
– Example of not reversible, directionality

• Also a small proportion of atmosphere
• Effect is being debated :
– What would be example of positive feedback with water vapor and global warming?
– What would be example of negative feedback?

• We don’t get any more atoms here on earth
– We keep reusing the Hydrogen, Nitrogen, Oxygen, and Carbon atoms we have
– Nature’s Recycling
– Structure of these systems varies
• N critical to proteins in living organisms and abundant in atmosphere, but mostly unavailable
– Depends on symbiotic relationship in plants with bacteria that “fix” nitrogen
• O part of H20, C02, Carbohydrates (systems interconnected)
– Bodies burn carbohydrates -- Cn(H20)n
– (e.g. glucose C6H12O6 + 6O2 <=> 6CO2 + 6H20 + Energy)
– Plants can do this backwards with sun for E!
– Similar to burning hydrocarbons (only C + H, i.e. methane=natural gas) CH4 +
202 = CO2 + 2H20 + energy
• C lots of it, but relatively little of it is cycling in atmosphere
– Most of the carbon is stored in geologic deposits - carbonate rocks, petroleum, and coal - formed from the burial and compaction of dead organic matter on sea bottoms. The carbon in these deposits is normally released by rock weathering.
– Extraction and burning of fossil fuels alters this system

• Air molecules are very small compared to space between them
• Can treat them as all the same (Ideal Gas
Assumption)
– A Linear relationship holds (roughly) for earth’s atmospheric temperatures and pressures
– PV = nRT
– Caesar’s Last Breath

• Earth is an open system to Energy
– ability to do work
• Potential, Kinetic, Heat Energy
– Heat: Radiation
• electromagnetic waves (even through vacuum)
• Sunlight, microwaves, infrared
– Heat: Conduction
• molecular vibrations in solids spreads to neighbors
– Heat: Convection
• Molecules move in gases and liquids—collide and spread their kinetic energy

• Second Law of Thermodynamics:
– entropy (disorder) increases (or at best stays the same) when cycles of work are done (for closed systems)
• Order necessary to maintain system’s integrity
– comes from energy flow into system (not closed), e.g. sunlight on earth
– Overall Entropy is increasing in the Universe, but there are “back eddies” of order driven by energy input (e.g. life on earth)

• Matter can be seen as acted upon by energy
• But understanding matter and energy relationship is not enough
• Information can organize matter and energy
– Acorn Example

– Optimization
• Local vs. global
• Cannot optimize system and its subsystems at the same time
– Tension between systems and subsystems
• Examples
– You and your liver
– Efficient country and local autonomy/control
– Game Theory
• Tragedy of the Commons
• Prisoner’s Dilemma, Chicken
• Discounting Future
• Maximin, Nash Equilibrium, Pareto Optimality

• Another way to think about systems:
– Complex systems have inherent problems that are affected by their systems characteristics
• Characteristics worth thinking about include:
– Dynamics (equilibria, +/- feedbacks, non-linearity, emergence, discontinuous change)
– Structure of relationships
• Open vs closed (matter, energy, entrpy)
• Degree of hierarchy
• Hierarchy of Matter, energy, information

• Swiss Camp, Greenland
– Konrad Steffen research group
– Above artic circle
– Speaker Pelosi Visit
• Acceleration of Greenland Ice
– 13 inches a day in 1996; 20 inches a day 2001
– A Positive Feedback
• “acceleration of Greenland ice sheet suggests yet another feedback mechanism: once an ice sheet begins to melt, it starts to flow faster, which means it also thins out faster, encouraging further melt” p. 54
• “Particularly alarming, Corell said, were the most recent data from Greenland, which showed the ice sheet melting much faster ‘than we thought possible even a decade ago.’” p. 63

• Freshwater ice from snow fall, on land
– Unlike melting sea ice, changes sea level
– Greenland Ice = 23 ft rise in sea level
– Sea level timeline
• Pacific NW Glaciers
– Research at PSU
– Some comparisons (slide 11, 16, 21)
• What models have been introduced in readings?
– What animal models: what computer/mathematical models

• Group Assignments
– Thermohaline Circulation
– Significance of Comma Butterflies
– Golden Toads
– Mosquitoes ( Wyeomyia smithii )

• Before you leave today:
– arrange a time to meet with your group in the evening or on the weekend (before next Monday) in Broadway
– make sure you have contact info for your fellow group members
• Meet briefly (~15 – 30 minutes) with your group and discuss the following points about your assigned model organism or computer model:
– What is the main point illustrated by this model? (e.g. this is an expansion of what was on the quiz)
– What are the details of your model system that illustrate this main point?
– How is this main point connected to Global Warming?
– Is it a good model for illustrating the main point? Can you think of a better one?
• EVERY member of each group should take their own handwritten notes and be prepare to present for two minutes in a future group on this topic.

• Homework 2
• This American Life Episode #370
– http://thisamericanlife.org/Radio_Episode.asp
x?sched=1275
– Take notes on:
• the main types of behaviors identified
• what support/examples are provided
• any ideas that come to mind related to your own experience
• any thing else you think is relevant