Finance 30210: Managerial Economics Introduction “Economics deals with the allocation of scarce resources to satisfy unlimited wants” “You can’t always get what you want…” - Mick Jagger We have limited incomes to spend on a wide variety of goods and services (both now and in the future) We have a finite number of hours in the day to work, relax, go to school, etc Firms have finite capacity and limited financial resources, to produce goods and services The economy as a whole has a finite number of resources trying to satisfy a population with unlimited wants! We need to make choices!! What’s the difference between Macroeconomics and Microeconomics? Nothing!!! Both are interested in allocations of resources…. Macro •We allocate our time towards either leisure or labor •We allocate our available resources towards either consumption ,investment, or government Macro allocations determine the size of the pie Micro •We allocate our time towards a variety of different activities •We allocate consumption/investment goods across a range of uses Micro allocations determine who gets what slice Macro Example: The US Economy Consumption GDP Business Investment Government 1950 1960 •Consumption (62%) •Investment (12%) •Government(24%) •Net Exports (2%) 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 •Consumption (69%) •Investment (17%) •Government(18%) •Net Exports (-4%) Micro Example: Uses of corn 1950 1960 •Fed to livestock (75%) •Exported (13%) •Food and Industrial Products (12%) 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 •Fed to livestock (60%) •Exported (22%) •High Fructose corn syrup (6%) •Ethanol Production (6%) •Food and Industrial Products (6%) How do we rank various allocations? Efficiency vs. Equity An allocation of resources that maximize total welfare An allocation of resources provides a “fair” distribution of welfare VS. Suppose that Exxon acquires drilling rights within a remote area where there will be negligible environmental damage in the traditional sense The Sierra club files a lawsuit to block the drilling (Their personal serenity has been threatened by the knowledge that the oil is being removed from it’s natural habitat) If you are the judge, who should prevail? If you are interested in efficiency you are trying to allocate resources to their highest value VS. If Exxon Wins: •Exxon stockholders gain •Workers gain from added jobs •Motorists see falling gasoline prices If Exxon Wins: •Sierra club members lay awake at night screaming $5M $10M A ruling against Exxon in this example would be inefficient – a missed opportunity to make everyone better off. Introducing homo economicus….also known as “Economic Man” Economic man is a RATIONAL being The Fundamental Rule of Economics: Individuals are rational beings and therefore respond to incentives – i.e. they respond to opportunities with Economic Profit Economic Profit = Benefit – Opportunity Cost Opportunity cost = Direct (Money) Costs + Implicit Costs In other words, think about opportunity cost as the value of ALL the resources that are being used Example: What would be the opportunity cost of attending Notre Dame as an undergraduate? Do students have an incentive to go to Notre Dame? Item Average 2011/2012 Expense Tuition and Fees $41,420 Room & Board $11,390 Books & Supplies $950 Personal Expenses $1,000 Transportation $500 Total $55,260 $55,260 x 4 = $221,040 So if you wanted a 10% return on your college education, you would need to earn $22,000 a year more per year after college Is this right? Example: What is IBM’s opportunity cost? Is IBM earning economic profit? Item 2010* Current Stock Price: $166 Shares Outstanding: 1,287M Net Sales 99,870 Cost of Goods Sold (49,358) Depreciation (4,831) Gross Income 45,681 Selling, General, and Adm. Expense (27,025) Operating Income 18,656 Interest Income/Expense 1,067 Pretax Income 19,723 Income Taxes (4,890) Net Income 14,833 $166 * 1,287M = $213.6B Is 5% a reasonable rate of return? $213.6B * .05 = $213.6B = $10.7B * In Millions Economic Profit = $14.8B - $10.7B = $4.1B What does this mean from a business perspective? That is, why should we care? Efficiency vs. Equity An allocation of resources that maximum total welfare If we have an efficient outcome, there are no opportunities to create wealth. An allocation of resources provides a “fair” distribution of welfare With inefficient outcomes, there are wealth creating opportunities. An inefficiency offers an opportunity to create wealth by moving resources to higher value uses! This is done through voluntary transactions. From a business standpoint, an inefficiency offers an opportunity to create wealth by moving resources to higher value uses! This is done through voluntary transactions. My Value - $80,000 Consumer Surplus = $5,000 Suppose that you own a Porsche that you value at $65,000, but I value at $80,000 Example: Sale Price = $75,000 Producer Surplus = $10,000 Your Value - $65,000 The sale of your car creates $15,000 of new wealth. The sale price determines how that wealth is allocated between us Exxon- $10M Consumer Surplus = $2M Rather than bringing a judge into the Exxon/Sierra Club problem, we could let the free market solve the problem Example: Sale Price = $8M Producer Surplus = $3M Sierra Club- $5M The sale creates $5M of new wealth. The sale price determines how that wealth is allocated “A subtle but damaging factor in this is the dominance of economists at business schools. Although there is no evidence that economists are less ethical than members of other discipline, approaching the world through the dollar sign does make people more cynical”* Amitai Etzioni, “When it comes to Ethics, B-Schools Get an F”, Washington Post, August 4, 2002 “In 2006, when Notre Dame played Michigan, the south bend Marriott charged $649 per night - $500 above its usual rate of $149”* Ethicist Joe Holt responds… “It is an act of moral abdication for businesses to pretend that they have no choice but to charge as much as they can based on supply and demand” * Ilan Brat, “Notre Dame Football introduces its Fans to Inflationary Spiral”, Wall Street Journal, September 6, 2006 ALL voluntary transactions create wealth!! Value = $700/Night Consumer Surplus = $50 Consumer Surplus = $550 Price = $650 Either way, $600 of wealth is created! Price = $150 Producer Surplus = $50 Cost = $100/Night Producer Surplus = $550 Cost = $100/Night Cost = $100/Night Value = $1000/Night You have three rooms to rent. How do you set the price to create the most wealth? Value = $200/Night Value = $600/Night Cost = $100/Night Value = $800/Night Value = $400/Night Value = $1000/Night CS = $400 PS = $500 At a $600 per night price we create $2100 of wealth Cost = $100/Night CS = $200 Value = $800/Night PS = $500 Cost = $100/Night Value = $600/Night Cost = $100/Night PS = $500 CS = $600 PS = $1500 Value = $1000/Night CS = $850 PS = $50 At a $150 per night price we could create $2100 of wealth Cost = $100/Night CS = $650 Value = $800/Night PS = $50 Cost = $100/Night CS = $450 Value = $600/Night PS = $50 Cost = $100/Night CS = $1950 PS = $150 Value = $200/Night CS = $50 At a $150 per night price we could create $900 of wealth PS = $50 Cost = $100/Night CS = $250 Value = $400/Night PS = $50 CS = $750 PS = $150 Cost = $100/Night CS = $450 Value = $600/Night PS = $50 Cost = $100/Night If Marriott charged $150 per night, what should happen? Charles Darwin vs. Adam Smith: Efficiency and the Competitive Marketplace "Greed captures the essence of the evolutionary spirit." -Gordon Gekko Markets and prices allow resources to be distributed in a way to take advantage of differences. Consider the following example. Two countries (the US and Mexico) producing two different goods (Agriculture and Manufacturing). Mexico USA Manufacturing 4 units/hr 10 units/hr Agriculture 5 units/hr 8 units/hr The United States has an Absolute advantage in both goods (we require less labor for everything we produce) Opportunity cost measures all the costs involved with an activity. In this example, the cost of agriculture in the USA is the time spent. We need to value that time. 1 Unit of agricultural goods 1/8 hour of time spent USA Manufacturing 10 units/hr Agriculture 8 units/hr 10/8 = 5/4 units of agriculture lost 10 units of manufacturing per hour 10 M M hr OC A 1.25 A A 8 hr 8 units of agriculture per hour 1.25 units of manufacturing per unit of agriculture Now, lets figure out the opportunity cost for Mexico of producing agriculture. 1 Unit of agriculture 1/5 hour of time spent 4/5 units of manufacturing lost 4 units of manufacturing per hour Mexico 4M Manufacturing Agriculture 4 units/hr 5 units/hr M hr OC A .80 A A 5 hr 5 units of agriculture per hour .80 units of manufacturing per unit of agriculture In terms of opportunity cost, Mexico has the lower cost of agriculture (in terms of lost manufacturing) . Likewise, US has a lower cost of Manufacturing (in terms of lost agriculture). We would say that Mexico has a comparative advantage in agriculture while the US has a comparative advantage in manufacturing Mexico USA Manufacturing 1.25 Units of Agriculture .80 Units of Agriculture Agriculture .80 Units of Manufacturing 1.25 Units of Manufacturing Suppose that both the US and Mexico had 40 hrs per week available to produce both goods: For every unit of agriculture produced, the US gives up 1.25 units of manufactured products M For every unit of agriculture produced, Mexico gives up .80 units of manufactured products M 400 Slope = 1.25 Slope = .80 300 160 80 80 320 A If the US devotes 10 hours to agriculture and 30 hours to manufacturing, we could have 80 units of agriculture and 300 units of manufacturing 100 200 A If Mexico devoted half its resources to each sector, it could have 100 units of agriculture and 80 units of manufacturing Suppose that, rather than producing both goods, the US specialized in Manufacturing and Mexico specialized in Agriculture…we could both be better off! With trade, The US could specialize in manufacturing (produce 400 units) and then trade 100 units of them for 100 units of agriculture M With trade, Mexico could specialize in agriculture (produces 200 units) and then trade 100 units of them for 100 units of manufacturing M Production point 400 300 Consumption point 160 Consumption point 100 80 200 80 100 320 Gain = 20 Agricultural Goods A Production point 100 200 A Gain = 20 Manufactured Goods Prices will determine what actually gets produced in each country: Suppose that the wage rate in the US is $10/hr USA Manufacturing 10 units/hr 1 unit = 1/10 hr $1 unit cost Agriculture 8 units/hr 1 unit = 1/8 hr $1.25 unit cost Lets look at the profitability of each industry in the US Profit (Price - Cost)Q With a wage of $10/hr, the price of agriculture has to be at least $1.25/unit while manufacturing has to be at least $1 to be profitable Suppose that manufactured goods sell for $4, while agricultural goods sell for $5 Suppose that the wage rate in the US is $10/hr USA Manufacturing 10 units/hr 1 unit = 1/10 hr $1 unit cost Agriculture 8 units/hr 1 unit = 1/8 hr $1.25 unit cost Manufacturing Profit ($4 - $1)Q $3Q Every hour of labor generates $30 of profit Agriculture Profit ($5 - $1.25)Q $3.75Q Every hour of labor generates $30 of profit Let’s look at these prices in relative terms… A unit of manufacturing sells for $4.00 A unit of agriculture sells for $5.00 The relative price of agriculture (in terms of manufacturing) is $5.00 $4.00 = 1.25 (Units of manufacturing per unit of agriculture) When the relative price of agriculture equals 1.25 (the relative cost), both industries are equally profitable! Suppose that manufactured goods sell for $4.50, while agricultural goods sell for $5 Suppose that the wage rate in the US is $10/hr USA Manufacturing 10 units/hr 1 unit = 1/10 hr $1 unit cost Agriculture 8 units/hr 1 unit = 1/8 hr $1.25 unit cost Manufacturing Profit ($4.50 - $1)Q $3.50Q Every hour of labor generates $35 of profit Agriculture Profit ($5 - $1.25)Q $3.75Q Every hour of labor generates $30 of profit Let’s look at these prices in relative terms… A unit of manufacturing sells for $4.50 A unit of agriculture sells for $5.00 The relative price of agriculture (in terms of manufacturing) is $5.00 $4.50 = 1.11 (Units of manufacturing per unit of agriculture) When the relative price of agriculture is less than 1.25 (the relative cost), manufacturing is more profitable! Suppose that manufactured goods sell for $4.00, while agricultural goods sell for $5.50 Suppose that the wage rate in the US is $10/hr USA Manufacturing 10 units/hr 1 unit = 1/10 hr $1 unit cost Agriculture 8 units/hr 1 unit = 1/8 hr $1.25 unit cost Manufacturing Profit ($4 - $1)Q $3Q Every hour of labor generates $30 of profit Agriculture Profit ($5.50 - $1.25)Q $4.25Q Every hour of labor generates $34 of profit Let’s look at these prices in relative terms… A unit of manufacturing sells for $4.00 A unit of agriculture sells for $5.50 The relative price of agriculture (in terms of manufacturing) is $5.50 $4.00 = 1.38 (Units of manufacturing per unit of agriculture) When the relative price of agriculture is more than 1.25 agriculture is more profitable! So relative prices are driving production patterns… Example #2: manufactured goods sell for $4.50, while agricultural goods sell for $5 M 400 Relative price of agriculture is less than 1.25 Example #1: manufactured goods sell for $4.50, while agricultural goods sell for $5 320 A Relative price of agriculture is equal to 1.25 Example #3: manufactured goods sell for $4.00, while agricultural goods sell for $5.50 Relative price of agriculture is greater than 1.25 Note that, keeping relative prices constant, changing absolute prices and wages has no affect on production, but alters the distribution of gains between workers and factory owners. Manufacturing Agriculture 10 units/hr 8 units/hr Manufacturing Suppose that manufactured goods sell for $4, while agricultural goods sell for $5, the wage rate is $10/hr Agriculture 1 Hour of Labor 1 Hour of Labor $40 of Output $10 of Wages $30 of Profits $40 of Output $10 of Wages $30 of Profits Note that, keeping relative prices constant, changing absolute prices and wages has no affect on production, but alters the distribution of gains between workers and factory owners. Manufacturing Agriculture 10 units/hr 8 units/hr Manufacturing Suppose that manufactured goods sell for $8, while agricultural goods sell for $10, the wage rate is $10/hr Agriculture 1 Hour of Labor 1 Hour of Labor $80 of Output $10 of Wages $70 of Profits $80 of Output $10 of Wages $70 of Profits Note that, keeping relative prices constant, changing absolute prices and wages has no affect on production, but alters the distribution of gains between workers and factory owners. Manufacturing Agriculture 10 units/hr 8 units/hr Manufacturing Suppose that manufactured goods sell for $4, while agricultural goods sell for $5, the wage rate is $20/hr Agriculture 1 Hour of Labor 1 Hour of Labor $40 of Output $20 of Wages $20 of Profits $40 of Output $20 of Wages $20 of Profits We get similar results in Mexico Relative price of agriculture is less than .80 M Relative price of agriculture is equal to .80 Relative price of agriculture is greater than .80 160 200 A M This leaves us with three possibilities… 400 #1: The relative price of agriculture is below .80 – both countries specialize in manufacturing (no trade) Slope = 1.25 A 320 M 160 #2: The relative price of agriculture is between .80 and 1.25 – US produces manufactured goods, Mexico produces agriculture countries specialize in manufacturing (trade) #3: The relative price of agriculture is above 1.25 – both countries specialize in agriculture (no trade) Slope = .80 200 A Suppose that the relative price of agriculture is 1 Price of manufacturing equals $8 Price of agriculture equals $8 Wages equal $10/hr With trade, The US specializes in manufacturing (produces 400 units) and then trades 100 units of them for 100 units of agriculture M With trade, Mexico specializes in agriculture (produces 200 units) and then sells 100 units of them for 100 units of manufacturing M Production point 400 300 Consumption point 160 Consumption point 100 80 200 80 100 320 Gain = 20 Agricultural Goods A Production point 100 200 A Gain = 20 Manufactured Goods Suppose that the relative price of agriculture is 1 Price of manufacturing equals $8 Price of agriculture equals $8 Wages equal $10/hr M M 400 400 300 300 200 80 320 Manufacturing (30 hours): •Output: $2400 •Wages Paid: $300 •Profits: $2100 Agriculture (10 Hours): •Output: $640 •Wages Paid: $100 •Profits: $540 A Net gain is $160 in extra profits (i.e. 20 agricultural goods) 80 100 320 Manufacturing (40 hours): •Output: $3200 •Wages Paid: $400 •Profits: $2800 Agriculture (0 Hours): •Output: $0 •Wages Paid: $0 •Profits: $0 A Suppose the agreed upon relative price of agriculture is .80 Price of manufacturing equals $10 Price of agriculture equals $8 Wages equal $10/hr With trade, Mexico specializes in agriculture (produces 200 units) and then sells 125 units of them for 100 units of manufacturing With trade, The US specializes in manufacturing (produces 400 units) and then sells 100 units of them for 125 units of agriculture M M Production point 400 300 Consumption point 200 160 100 80 125 320 Gain = 45 Agricultural Goods A 75 Gain = 0 200 A Suppose the agreed upon price of agriculture is .80 (each agricultural item is traded for .80 manufactured items Price of manufacturing equals $10 Price of agriculture equals $8 Wages equal $10/hr M M 400 400 300 300 200 80 320 Manufacturing (30 hours): •Output: $3000 •Wages Paid: $300 •Profits: $2700 Agriculture (10 Hours): •Output: $640 •Wages Paid: $100 •Profits: $540 A Net gain is $360 in extra profits (i.e. 45 agricultural goods) 80 125 320 Manufacturing (40 hours): •Output: $4000 •Wages Paid: $400 •Profits: $3600 Agriculture (0 Hours): •Output: $0 •Wages Paid: $0 •Profits: $0 A Suppose the agreed upon relative price of agriculture is 1.25 Price of manufacturing equals $10 Price of agriculture equals $12.50 Wages equal $10/hr With trade, Mexico specializes in agriculture (produces 200 units) and then sells 100 units of them for 125 units of manufacturing With trade, The US specializes in manufacturing (produces 400 units) and then sells 125 units of them for 100 units of agriculture M M Production point 400 275 Consumption point 200 160 125 80 100 Gain = 0 320 A 100 200 Gain = 45 Manufactured Goods A Suppose the agreed upon price of agriculture is 1.25 Price of manufacturing equals $10 Price of agriculture equals $12.50 Wages equal $10/hr M M 400 400 300 300 200 80 320 Manufacturing (30 hours): •Output: $3000 •Wages Paid: $300 •Profits: $2700 Agriculture (10 Hours): •Output: $1000 •Wages Paid: $100 •Profits: $900 A Net gain is $0 in extra profits 80 320 Manufacturing (40 hours): •Output: $4000 •Wages Paid: $400 •Profits: $3600 Agriculture (0 Hours): •Output: $0 •Wages Paid: $0 •Profits: $0 A We can actually sketch out the world supply curve for agriculture… PA S For prices above 1.25, both countries specialize in agriculture 1.25 For prices between .80 and 1.25, both countries are completely specialized (US in manufacturing, Mexico in Agriculture) .80 200 520 A For prices below .80, neither country produces agriculture Producer surplus measures he difference between price and cost for every good sold… PA 1.25 .45 M A S M 250 Gain = 90 Manufactured foods 160 Gain = 90 Manufactured foods .80 200 520 A 200 A 200 A M PS 200 A .45 90 M A At a relative price of agriculture equal to 1.25, Mexico’s potential producer surplus would be 90 Manufactured goods if they traded everything. Note that US gains are zero We could also sketch out the world supply curve for manufacturing… PM S For prices above 1.25, both countries specialize in ,manufacturing 1.25 For prices between .80 and 1.25, both countries are completely specialized (US in manufacturing, Mexico in Agriculture) .80 400 520 M For prices below .80, neither country produces manufacturing Producer surplus measures he difference between price and cost for every good sold… PM 1.25 .45 A M S M 400 Gain = 180 Manufactured foods Gain = 180 Manufactured foods .80 400 560 A 320 500 400M A PS 400 M .45 180 A M At a relative price of manufacturing equal to 1.25, USA’s potential producer surplus would be 180 agricultural goods if they traded everything. Note that Mexico’s gains are zero A Suppose we add another country… Manufacturing 4 units/hr 10 units/hr 7 units/hr Agriculture 5 units/hr 8 units/hr 7 units/hr .80 units of manufacturing per unit of agriculture 1.25 units of manufacturing per unit of agriculture Again, assume each country has 40 hrs available… 1units of manufacturing per unit of agriculture Suppose we add another country… S No Trade Mexico and Canada Exports Agriculture to USA Mexico Exports Agriculture to USA and Canada No Trade PA 1.25 1.00 .80 200 480 800 A Just as with the previous example, relative prices determine trading patterns and gains to each country. So, the moral of this story is… Free markets with prices that reflect the proper information creates allocations of resources that are efficient (i.e. wealth maximizing). With an efficient allocation, no more wealth creating transactions are possible. However, an efficient allocation of resources makes no guarantees of equity…we will have winners and losers in a market system. Are we willing to sacrifice efficiency to improve equity? The Average Shopping cart in the US today is approximately three times as big as its 1975 counterpart Ralph Nader has argued that this is a prime example of consumers being manipulated by unscrupulous capitalists – bigger carts shame consumers into bigger purchases. What’s wrong with this argument? Microsoft’s new Xbox 360 gaming console was released in North America on November 22, 2005 at a retail price of $299.99. Available supply sold out almost immediately as Christmas shoppers stood in line for this year’s hot item. (Microsoft has increased its sales target from 3M units to 6M units). What’s odd about this?? In the years following a divorce, statistics show that the woman’s living standard falls 27% while the man’s living standard rises by 10% Feminists such as Patricia Ireland (NOW) would argue that this proves divorce is unfair to women Couldn’t you just as easily argue that marriage is unfair to men? On December 22, 2001, Richard Reid was arrested trying to blow up an American Airlines flight from Paris to Miami with a bomb hidden in his shoes. Many human rights groups have fought heavily against the practice of racial profiling by airline security Isn’t there a better way to secure the safety of our airplanes? (Hint: could we create a marketplace?) Paul “Freck” Morgan started a website in 2001 offering a $20 Pay Per View event…..to watch him cut off his feet with a homemade guillotine. Note: The site turned out to be a hoax…Paul never actually went through with it! How should we feel about this entrepreneurial effort? (i.e. could we/should we repress this market?)