Scientific Methods for
Management Science
Alexander Settles
Higher School of Economics
asettles@hse.ru
Class Web Site
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http://hse.ru/edu/courses/8375505.
html
All reading and schedule posted
there
Schedule
1. Introduction to the Class
2. From Theory to Research
& Research Methods
3. Review of Most Citied
Corporate Governance
Research
4. Research Design Choices
and Causal Inferences
5. Inferences Validity and
Reliability
6. Experiments & Quasiexperiments
7. Review of Most Citied
Management Research
8. Survey Development &
Qualitative Research
Methods
9. Models and Simulation
Analysis & Levels of
Analysis
Course Objectives
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Learn how to use the scientific
method
Discuss your topic with fellow
students
Find literature sources on
management
Develop scholarly writing skills
Develop critical thinking skills
Instill research ethics
Course Objectives
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Investigate professors that are
potential dissertation advisors
Learn about human subjects issues
Develop bibliographic organization
and citation skills
Prepare dissertation proposal
Purpose of this Seminar
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Introduction to international
research practices
Improve results of your dissertation
work and encourage you take an
entire year to work on your papers
Gain a working knowledge of
methods of scientific analysis
Common mistakes of HSE students in
pursuing research
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Making the blanket statement that
things in Russia are different so
social science practices do not apply
Poor literature reviews
No methods – summaries of work
experiences or essay format
No data to support or reject
hypotheses
No conclusions
Course Requirements
1. 40% Homework Assignment – Research task
October 4th – weekly status updates required
2. 40% Research Proposal – if you miss a deadline you
receive 0 for that portion of assignment
a. 5% Research Question due September 13th
b. 5% Annotated Bibliography due October 6th
c. 10% Introduction to your research proposal
including the introduction, literature review, and
hypotheses due October 25th
d. 20% Full research proposal due November 22nd
3. 20% Class attendance and participation
4. Oral Exam will be required if you have an unexcused
absence or late in turning in your assignments
Overview of Course Structure
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Introduction to the Class and Intro to Research
Paper Structure
From Theory to Research
Research Design Choices and Causal Inferences
Validity and Reliability
Research Ethics and Content Analysis Research
Experiments
Quasi-experiments
Survey Development
Qualitative Research Methods
Models and Simulation Analysis
Levels of Analysis
Terms
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applied research
basic research
belief-based
explanation
circular explanation
(or tautology)
commonsense
explanations
confirmation bias
deductive reasoning
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hypothesis
pseudoscience
rational method
research
Science
scientific method
variable
Is Management a Science?
Falsification and common sense
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Falsification is a crucial concept.
And the hypothetico-deductive
method is the only method for
theory verification in all the
empirical sciences (Elster, 1983)
It is not incompatible with “common
sense”
Theory construction is different
from theory verification
Methodological ¨naïveté”
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Naïve rationalism: the position that the
aim of a scientific theory is to ‘explain’
observed phenomena
Naïve empiricism: belief that for a
statement to be scientifically meaningful,
it must be logically constructible out of
terms which refer to immediate
experience.
Naïve pragmatism: the idea that scientific
knowledge should be immediately ‘useful’,
possibly coming directly from experience,
and that the sooner it is used, the better
Contents of a typical research paper
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Title page : abstract, contents
Introduction
Literature Review
Description of work done and
methods.
Results and Discussion.
Conclusions and Recommendations.
References and Bibliography.
Appendices.
Introduction
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Define what the problem is
The questions you are addressing
Outline personal/specific
considerations that lead to this
investigation
How it differs from previous work
What the report will contain
Perhaps some (hint) of the
conclusions
Methods
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Describe the
method or
approach.
Justify that it is
appropriate.
Establish
constraints or
assumptions.
Enable others to
repeat the work
and check the
conclusions.
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Link with the
research question.
Motivate the work
- what is its
importance?
Establish
approaches used
in previous
research - the
literature search.
Where to Begin: Knowing things
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Not so much about what we know, but HOW we
know
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Most of what we know is matter of belief and
agreement
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Other way of knowing…direct experience,
observation
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“Everybody knows that…”
But everybody “knew” the world was flat once
But when experience conflicts with agreement…
There is good chance that we’ll surrender our experience in
favor of agreement
Methodology: special approach to inquiry
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The science of finding out
How social scientists find out about human social life
Errors in inquiry
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Inaccurate observations
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Overgeneralization
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Assuming that a few similar events are evidence of a general
pattern
Scientists guard against this by REPLICATION of inquiry
Selective observation
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Most daily observations are casual… not precise
Scientific observation is a conscious activity
Ex: instructor’s clothes; football toss
We assume a pattern exists then focus on future events that
fit the pattern
Illogical reasoning
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“Exception that proves the rule”
WHAT?...how can that be logical?
Foundations of social science:
logic and observation
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Theory, not philosophy or belief
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Social regularities
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Social affairs do exhibit a high degree of regularity, despite
exceptions
Aggregates, not individuals
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Social theory has to do with what is, not with what should
be...not so for many centuries.
Science cannot settle debates about values
Regularities that social scientists study generally reflect the
collective behavior of many individuals
A Variable Language
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Attributes: characteristics or qualities that describe an object
Variables: logical groupings of attributes
Independent and Dependent Variables
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Two concepts are implicit in causal or
deterministic models
A dependent variable “depends” on an
independent variable
That is, a change in the independent
variable will produce a change in the
dependent variable
Dialectics of Social Research:
Inductive and Deductive Theory
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Inductive
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Reasoning that moves from the particular to the
general...from…
1. a set of observations to…
2. the discovery of a pattern that represents some degree of order
among all the given events
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Deductive
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Reasoning that moves from the general to the
specific...from…
1. a pattern that might be logically or theoretically expected to…
2. observations that test whether the pattern actually occurs
Dialectics of Social Research:
Quantitative and Qualitative Data
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Most simply put, difference is the
distinction between numerical and nonnumerical data
Every observation is qualitative at the
outset
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We quantify it to make it easier to aggregate,
compare and summarize the data
Both types of data are useful and legitimate
in management research
Elements of Social Theory
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Law: universal generalization about classes of facts
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Ex: law of gravity—bodies are attracted to each
other in proportion to their mass and in inverse
proportion to their distance
No social scientific laws that claim universal
certainty
Theory: a systematic explanation for observations that
relate to a particular aspect of social life...
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For example someone might offer a theory of
strategy, firm competitiveness, organization, etc.
Elements of Social Theory, p.2
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Proposition: specific conclusions about the relationships
among concepts that are derived from axiomatic groundwork
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Hypothesis: a specified testable expectation about
empirical reality that follows from a more general proposition
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Research is designed to test hypotheses
Null hypothesis suggests that there is NO relationship
among the variables under study
Traditional model of science
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Theory
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Operationalization
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Specification of the exact operations involved in
measuring a variable
For the researcher testing an hypothesis, the meaning
of variables is exactly and only what the operational
definition specifies
Must be specified with clarity in a way to make
observation precise and rigorous
Observation
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Systematic and rigorous gathering of data to test the
hypothesis
Research Design
Purposes of Research
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Exploration: typically done for three purposes:
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Description: describe situations and events
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to satisfy the researcher’s curiosity and desire for
better understanding
to test the feasibility of undertaking a more extensive
study
to develop the methods to be employed in a subsequent
study
Census is good example of descriptive research
Explanation: the “why?” of events, situations,
behavior, attitudes, etc.
Logic of Nomothetic Explanation
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Nomothetic explanation refers to the
accounting of many variations in a given
phenomenon
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In contrast to…
Idiographic explanation that seeks an indepth understanding of a single case
Criteria for Nomothetic Causality
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Correlation: the variables must be correlated
Time order: the cause takes place before the
effect
Non-spurious: the variables are nonspurious
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Spurious relationship: a coincidental statistical
correlation between two variables, shown to be
caused by some third variable
Correlation
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Some relationship---or correlation—between the
variables must exist before we can consider
causality
Correlation: empirical relationship between two
variables such that…
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Changes in one are associated with changes in
the other
Particular attributes of one variable are
associated with particular attributes of the
other
False Criteria for Nomothetic
Causality
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Complete causation
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Exceptional cases
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Causation is incomplete and
probabalistic
Exceptional cases do not disprove
general overall pattern of causation
Majority of cases
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Causal relationship may be true even if
they don’t apply to the majority of cases
Necessary and Sufficient Causes
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Necessary cause represents a condition that
must be present for the effect to follow
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Ex: must be female to become pregnant
Ex: must take college courses to get a
degree…but…
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Simply taking courses is not a sufficient cause
Must take the right ones
Necessary and Sufficient Causes
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Sufficient cause represents a condition that,
if it is present, guarantees the effect in
question
Not saying that sufficient cause is only
possible cause for effect
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Ex: skipping exam in course would be
sufficient cause for failing, but students could
fail in other ways, too
So, cause can be sufficient but not necessary
Units of Analysis
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No limit to what or whom can be studied
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Common social science units of analysis:
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Individuals
Groups
Organizations
Social artifacts.
Important: what you “call” a given unit of analysis is
almost irrelevant—but you must be clear what that unit
“is”
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Country level effects or the firms that operate in that country?
Firm level strategy or country level strategy?
Efficiency of the hotel or the satisfaction of customers?
Reductionism
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Tendency to explain everything in terms of a
particular, narrow set of concepts
Remember paradigms that predispose
researcher to a particular explanation
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Definition of order by coercion, shared values,
exchange
Conceptualization,
Operationalization & Measurement
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Conceptualization
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The refinement and specification of abstract
concepts
A specific agreed-upon meaning of the concept
under study
Operationalization
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The development of specific research
procedures (operations) that will result in
empirical observations representing those
concepts in the real world
Indicators and Dimensions
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Indicator
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An observation that we consider as a
reflection of the variable under study
Ex: attending church as an indicator or
religiosity
Dimension
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A specific aspect of a concept
Ex: action aspects of religiosity (attending
church, giving money) and contemplative
aspects (prayer, etc)
Basic Research Outline*
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The Problem
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Present a clear, brief statement of the
problem, with concepts defined where
necessary
Show that the problem is limited to
bounds amenable to treatment or test
Describe the significance of the problem
with reference to specific criteria
Source: Miller, Delbert C. 1991. Handbook of Research Design and Social
Measurement, 5th Edition. Newbury Park: Sage Publications, pp. 15-16.
Basic Research Outline
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The Theoretical Framework
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Describe the relationship of the problem
to a theoretical framework
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Demonstrate the relationship of the
problem to previous research
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Present alternate hypotheses considered
feasible within the framework of the
theory.
Basic Research Outline
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The Research Question/Hypotheses
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Clearly state the research questions or the hypotheses
selected for test. (Null and alternate)
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Indicate the significance of test hypotheses to the
advancement of research and theory.
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Define concepts or variables (preferably in operational
terms).
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Describe possible mistakes and their consequences.
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Note seriousness of possible mistakes.
Basic Research Outline
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Design of the Experiment or Inquiry
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Describe ideal design or designs with
particular attention to the control of
interfering variables
Describe selected operational design
Specify statistical tests including dummy
variables
Basic Research Outline
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Sampling Procedures
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Describe experimental and control
samples
Specify method of drawing or
selecting sample
Basic Research Outline
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Methods of Gathering Data
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Describe measures of quantitative variables
showing reliability and validity when these are
known. Describe means of identifying qualitative
variables
Include descriptions of questionnaires or
schedules
Describe interview procedure
Describe use made of pilot study, pretest, trial
run.
Basic Research Outline
 Working
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Guide
Prepare working guide with time and
budget estimates
Estimate total person-hours and cost
Basic Research Outline
 Analysis
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of Results
Specify methods of analysis
Basic Research Outline
 Interpretation
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of Results
Discuss how conclusions will be
fed back into theory…OR…
Inform policy/practice.
Basic Research Outline
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Publication or Reporting
Plans...Communication Plans
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Monograph, Executive summary
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Testimony to policy makers.
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Presentations to institutions, nongovernmental agencies, media, public.
Journal publication