FCD CWI
The Foundation
for Child Development
Child and Youth Well-Being Index (CWI)
1975 to 2004 with Projections for 2005
A Social Indicators Project Supported by the Foundation
for Child Development
Brookings Presentation, March 28, 2006
Kenneth C. Land, Ph.D., Project Coordinator
Duke University
1
FCD CWI
What is the CWI?
• A composite measure of trends over time in
the quality of life, or well-being, of
America’s children and young people.
• It consists of several interrelated summary
indices of annual time series of 28 social
indicators of well-being.
2
FCD CWI
The Objective of the CWI:
• To give a sense of the overall direction of
change in the well-being of children and
youth in the United States as compared to
1975.
3
FCD CWI
The CWI is designed to address
the following types of questions:
• Overall, on average, how did child and youth
well-being in the United States change in the
last quarter of the 20th century and into the
present?
• Did it improve or deteriorate, and by how
much?
• In which domains or areas of social life?
4
FCD CWI
•
•
•
•
For specific age groups?
For particular race/ethnic groups?
For each of the sexes?
And did race/ethnic group and sex
disparities increase or decrease?
5
FCD CWI
Methods of Index Construction
• Annual time series data (from vital statistics and sample
surveys) have been assembled on some 28 national level
indicators in seven quality-of-life domains.
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
Family Economic Well-Being
Health
Safety/Behavioral Concerns
Educational Attainment
Community Connectedness
Social Relationships (with Family and Peers)
Emotional/Spiritual Well-Being
6
FCD CWI
• These seven domains have been wellestablished in over two decades of empirical
studies of subjective well-being by social
psychologists and other social scientists.
• In this sense, the CWI is an evidence-based
measure of trends in averages of the social
conditions encountered by children and youths
in the United States.
7
FCD CWI
• Each of the 28 Key Indicators is indexed by
percentage change from the base year, 1975.
– That is, subsequent annual observations are
computed as percentages of the base year.
– Three indicators begin in the mid-1980s and use
corresponding base years.
• The base year is assigned a value of 100.
– The directions of the indicator values are oriented
such that a value greater (lesser) than 100 in
subsequent years means the social condition
measured has improved (deteriorated).
8
FCD CWI
• The time series of the 28 indicators are grouped
together into the seven domains described
above and domain-specific summary well-being
indices are constructed.
– Within these summary indices, each indicator is
equally weighted.
• The seven component indices are then
combined into an equally-weighted summary
index of child and youth well-being.
9
FCD CWI
Significant Findings
• The following charts show changes over time in
the CWI and its various components.
– Overall Index of Child Well-Being
– Domain Specific Index: Educational Attainment
• Math Scores
• Reading Scores
– Effects of Demographic Standardization
10
FCD CWI
Figure 1: Child and Youth Well-Being Index (CWI), 1975-2004, with Projections for 2005
110
100
95
90
Year
20
05
20
03
20
01
19
99
19
97
19
95
19
93
19
91
19
89
19
87
19
85
19
83
19
81
19
79
19
77
85
19
75
Percent of Base Year
105
11
FCD CWI
Figure 2. Domain-Specific Summary Indices, 1975-2004, with Projections for 2005.
160
Family Economic Well-Being
Health
Safety/Behavioral Concerns
Educational Attainment
Community Connectedness
Social Relationships
Emotional/Spiritual Well-Being
150
140
120
110
100
90
80
70
Year
20
05
20
03
20
01
19
99
19
97
19
95
19
93
19
91
19
89
19
87
19
85
19
83
19
81
19
79
19
77
60
19
75
Percent of Base Year
130
12
FCD CWI
Focus: Educational Attainment Measures
• NAEP: National Assessment of Educational
Progress -- the “Nation’s Report Card”
– Supervised by the National Assessment
Governing Board.
– Periodic assessment of student knowledge and
abilities in a number of subjects.
– NAEP long-term trend assessments in Math and
Reading use the same testing instruments and
procedures to replicate test results over time for
children aged 9, 13, and 17.
13
FCD CWI
Figure 3. NAEP Math Scores, 1978-2004
320
300
260
Age 17
Age 13
240
Age 9
220
Year
20
05
20
03
20
01
19
99
19
97
19
95
19
93
19
91
19
89
19
87
19
85
19
83
19
81
19
79
200
19
77
NAEP Math Score
280
14
FCD CWI
Figure 4. NAEP Reading Scores, 1975-2004
320
300
260
Age 17
240
Age 13
Age 9
220
Year
20
04
20
02
20
00
19
98
19
96
19
94
19
92
19
90
19
88
19
86
19
84
19
82
19
80
19
78
19
76
200
19
74
NAEP Reading Score
280
15
FCD CWI
The Interrelationship of Trends in
Education and Educational Attainment
• Are pre-Kindergarten enrollment rates
leading indicators for Age-9 test scores?
16
FCD CWI
250
56
245
49
240
42
235
35
230
28
225
Percent of Children, Ages 3-4, in Pre-Kindergarten
NAEP Math Scores, Age 9
21
220
NAEP Reading Scores, Age 9
Year
20
04
20
03
20
02
20
01
20
00
19
99
19
98
19
97
19
96
205
19
95
0
19
94
210
19
93
7
19
92
215
19
91
14
17
NAEP Score
63
19
90
Percent in Pre-Kindergarten
Figure 5. Percent Enrolled in Pre-Kindergarten, Ages 3-4 and
NAEP Mathematics and Reading Scores, Age 9, 1990-2004
FCD CWI
Demographic Standardization
• A technique for examining how a trend
might be affected if the characteristics of
the students had not changed over time:
– For example, what would the math trend be if
the race/ethnic composition of schools had
remained the same as in 1978?
• Thus, standardization controls for the
effects of compositional changes on overall
rates.
18
FCD CWI
The Impacts of Changes in Student
Composition since the 1970s on
NAEP Test Scores
Two significant changes are studied here:
1. Changes in the racial and ethnic
composition of U.S. students.
19
FCD CWI
Figure 6. Changing Racial/Ethnic Distribution of NAEP Students Age 17, 1978-2004
90
80
70
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
50
40
30
20
10
Year
05
20
03
20
01
20
99
19
97
19
95
19
93
19
91
19
89
19
87
19
85
19
83
19
81
19
79
19
77
0
19
Percent
60
20
FCD CWI
The Impacts of Changes in Student
Composition since the 1970s on
NAEP Test Scores
Two significant changes are studied here:
1. Changes in the racial and ethnic
composition of U.S. students.
2. Changes in parents’ level of educational
attainment.
21
FCD CWI
Figure 7. Changing Distribution of Parents' Highest Level of Education for
NAEP Students Age 17, 1978-2004
60
College graduate
HS graduate
50
Post HS education
Less than HS diploma
30
20
10
Year
20
05
20
03
20
01
19
99
19
97
19
95
19
93
19
91
19
89
19
87
19
85
19
83
19
81
19
79
0
19
77
Percent of students
40
22
FCD CWI
Figure 8. NAEP Math Scores, Age 17: As Reported and Standardized to
1978 and 2004 Racial/Ethnic Distributions
312
310
306
304
302
Standardized to 1978 Racial/Ethnic Distribution
300
Reported NAEP Math Scores
298
Standardized to 2004 Racial/Ethnic Distribution
Year
20
05
20
03
20
01
19
99
19
97
19
95
19
93
19
91
19
89
19
87
19
85
19
83
19
81
19
79
296
19
77
NAEP Math Score
308
23
FCD CWI
Figure 9. NAEP Math Scores, Age 17: As Reported and Standardized to
1978 and 2004 Parents' Highest Level of Education
312
310
306
304
302
Standardized to 2004 Parental Education Levels
300
Reported NAEP Math Score
298
Standardized to 1978 Parental Education Levels
Year
20
05
20
03
20
01
19
99
19
97
19
95
19
93
19
91
19
89
19
87
19
85
19
83
19
81
19
79
296
19
77
NAEP Math Score
308
24
FCD CWI
Figure 10. NAEP Reading Scores, Age 17: As Reported and Standardized to
1980 and 2004 Racial/Ethnic Distribution
293
291
287
285
283
Standardized to 1980 Racial/Ethnic Distribution
Reported NAEP Reading Scores
281
Standardized to 2004 Racial/Ethnic Distribution
Year
20
05
20
03
20
01
19
99
19
97
19
95
19
93
19
91
19
89
19
87
19
85
19
83
19
81
279
19
79
NAEP Reading Score
289
25
FCD CWI
Figure 11. NAEP Reading Scores, Age 17: As Reported and Standardized to
1980 and 2004 Parents' Highest Level of Education
293
291
287
285
283
Standardized to 2004 Parental Education Levels
Reported NAEP Reading Scores
281
Standardized to 1980 Parental Education Levels
Year
20
05
20
03
20
01
19
99
19
97
19
95
19
93
19
91
19
89
19
87
19
85
19
83
19
81
279
19
79
NAEP Reading Score
289
26
FCD CWI
Conclusions
• The overall well-being of children and youth in the
United States showed substantial improvement for the
ten years from 1994 to 2003.
– These improvements continued at a slow pace in 2004, and
likely continued through 2005.
• Historically, however, the CWI showed a decline in
well-being for a number of years in the 1980s and
reached low points in 1993 and 1994.
– These declines mirror economic restructuring, recessions,
and demographic changes.
• Only since the year 2000 has the CWI improved to
above 1975 levels.
27
FCD CWI
Conclusions (cont.)
• The Key Indicators in the Educational
Attainment Domain have shown only slight
changes since the mid-1970s:
– Math Scores:
• Slight improvement at all ages
– Reading Scores:
• Some improvement for age 9
• Little change for age 13
• Decline for age 17
28
FCD CWI
Pre-Kindergarten Enrollment Rates
and Test Scores
• There was a positive relationship between increases
in pre-Kindergarten enrollment rates in the 1990s
and increases in age-9 NAEP mathematics and
reading scores in the early-2000s.
• This suggests that increases in pre-K enrollment
rates at ages 3 to 4 were leading indicators of the
increase in the test scores for 9-year olds a few
years later.
29
FCD CWI
Effects of the Changing
Mix of Students
• Our demographic standardization analyses show:
Improvements in parents’ education have had
positive effects on student math scores.
The changing racial/ethnic distribution of
students has had a smaller effect on test scores.
There has been a general downturn in age 17
reading test scores since 1992; the downturn
would have been larger without increases in
parental education levels over the past three
decades.
30
FCD CWI
Implications
• If the positive association of preKindergarten enrollments and age-9 NAEP
test scores continues to hold, it can be
anticipated that further increases in pre-K
enrollments will result (with a 5 to 6 year
lag) in continued improvements in the age-9
test scores.
31
FCD CWI
Implications, Cont.
• Improvements in parental educational attainments
are partially transferred to the abilities of their
children in mathematics and reading; this is
consistent with over four decades of research on
intergenerational socioeconomic status transfers.
• The increases in rates of college graduation of
young adults in the 1990s should lead to higher
math test scores as they rear children over the next
decade.
• Increases in education levels for minority parents
should reduce race/ethnic disparities in future test
scores.
32
FCD CWI
Implications, Cont.
• Further research on the downturn in reading
test scores for 17-year olds is required to
explain the declines over the past decade.
– For instance, we do not know the extent to
which the decline is related to the widespread
use of new media for entertainment (e.g., video
games, the Internet) and corresponding declines
in time devoted to reading and the extent to
which such changes are reversible.
33
FCD CWI
The CWI on the Web:
http://www.soc.duke.edu/~cwi/
34