ISFFA Annual Conference Trends in Financial Aid And Private Student Loans December 7, 2009 This presentation does not constitute formal policy or legal advice and should not be relied upon as such. © Student Lending Analytics, LLC Slide 1 Trends in Financial Aid And Private Student Loans Agenda How are schools thinking about their federal student loan program for 2010-11? What are trends in federal student loan program? What is current state of private student loan market? – How are schools addressing this shortfall in private student loans? How can financial aid staff inform and educate students and help them improve their financial literacy skills? © Student Lending Analytics, LLC Slide 2 SLA Flash Survey: FFELP and DL Trends Current Plans For 2010-11 (Overall) We are and will remain a Direct Lending school 24% Currently FFELP; Committed To DL for 2010-11 Currently FFELP; Committed Mid-year To DL 18% 5% Currently FFELP; Preparing for DL; Undecided 13% Currently FFELP; Preparing for DL; Would Remain FFEL if Possible 26% Currently FFELP; Will Prepare For When Required By Legislation Other 0.0% 8% 5% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% Percentage of Total Respondents Survey question #1: Please select the choice which best describes your institution's current plans for the 2010-2011 academic year? © Student Lending Analytics, LLC Slide 3 SLA Flash Survey: FFELP and DL Trends Activities To Prepare for DL – Overall DL Webinars 75% DL Website 59% FSA Conference 58% Update PPA 56% COD School Relations Center 53% Software Vendor 29% Team 29% Electronic Account 28% Mentor Relationship 25% Comm. Strategy 18% Consultants 3% None 5% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Percentage of Total Respondents Survey question #2: CHECK ALL THAT APPLY. My institution (either myself or other staff members) has taken the following steps to prepare for Direct Lending should that become the platform for loan origination as well as servicing in 2010-11: © Student Lending Analytics, LLC Slide 4 SLA Flash Survey: FFELP and DL Trends School Administration’s Interest In Direct Lending Percentage of Total Respondents with Literacy Program 50.0% 40.0% 37% 31% 30.0% 20.0% 15% 11% 10.0% 6% 0.0% Strongly agree Agree Moderately disagree Strongly disagree Not sure Survey question: COMMENT ON THIS STATEMENT. The administration at my institution is interested in having a contingency plan prepared to implement Direct Lending by the proposed July 1, 2010 start date. © Student Lending Analytics, LLC Slide 5 Trends in Financial Aid And Private Student Loans Agenda How are schools thinking about their federal student loan program for 2010-11? What are trends in federal student loan program? What is current state of private student loan market? – How are schools addressing this shortfall in private student loans? How can financial aid staff inform and educate students and help them improve their financial literacy skills? © Student Lending Analytics, LLC Slide 6 Trends in Financial Aid And Private Student Loans Trends in Federal Student Loans Loan Type 2007-08 (In Billions) 2008-09 (In Billions) Percent Change Stafford Subsidized $29.5 $30.6 4% Stafford Unsubsidized $28.5 $36.9 29% PLUS $7.7 $7.4 -4% GradPLUS $3.2 $3.9 24% TOTAL $69.0 $78.8 14% Source: SLA Analysis of Dept. of Education data on Data Center © Student Lending Analytics, LLC Slide 7 Trends in Financial Aid And Private Student Loans Private Student Loans Growth…And Decline Total Student Loans (In Millions of Constant 2008 Dollars) $30,000 $20,000 $10,000 $0 9596 9697 9798 9899 9900 0001 0102 0203 0304 0405 0506 0607 0708 0809 Source: College Board: Trends in Student Aid © Student Lending Analytics, LLC Slide 8 Trends in Financial Aid And Private Student Loans The Difference That Two Years Makes Loan Volume Avg. Loan Margins Min. FICO score Cosigners Quarterly Gross Defaults Number of Lenders 2007 2009 (estimates) $19 billion $10-$12 billion LIBOR + 5% LIBOR + 9% to 9.5% 620 to 630 680 to 700 50-60% 80-90% 0.7% 1.2% Multiple choices Limited choices Sources: College Board data used for 2007 Loan Volumes and SLA estimates for 2009 Loan Volume estimates, reviewed securitization prospectus for Loan Margins, DBRS research for Quarterly Gross Defaults © Student Lending Analytics, LLC Slide 9 Trends in Financial Aid And Private Student Loans Private Loan Originations – Sallie Mae 3,000 Percentage of Total 2,500 2,000 2006 2007 2008 2009 1,500 1,000 500 0 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q Source: SLA analysis of Sallie Mae loan originations disclosed in public SEC filings © Student Lending Analytics, LLC Slide 10 Trends in Financial Aid And Private Student Loans Lender List Penetration Rates 77% 72% 69% 65% Chase Wells Fargo Sallie Mae Citibank 36% Discover 28% 24% 21% US Bank SunTrust Bank PNC Bank Fifth Third Bank Citizens Bank Regions Bank Charter One 0.0% 9% 8% 7% 4% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% Percentage of Total Source: SLA Analysis of 425 private loan lender lists, August 2009. State alternative loan programs appeared 107 times on these lists. © Student Lending Analytics, LLC Slide 11 Trends in Financial Aid And Private Student Loans Interest Rate Ranges For Major Lenders Current Starting Interest Rate Ranges (Index + Margin) 15.0% 11.50% 11.03% 11.00% 11.24% 12.55% 12.20% 11.88% 13.24% 12.75% 10.0% 5.0% 4.25% 4.25% 4.50% 4.28% 4.70% 5.20% 5.13% 4.25% 3.24% 0.0% Discover Fees None Wells Fargo None SunTrust None PNC Bank 0% to 6% Chase None U.S. Bank Citibank None 0% to 6% Sallie Mae 0% to 3% Citizens None Source: SLA analysis of repayment examples on lender websites, November 2009 © Student Lending Analytics, LLC Slide 12 Trends in Financial Aid And Private Student Loans How Are State Alternative Loan Programs Different? According to College Board, states originated almost $1 billion of private loan volume in 2008-09 or about 8% of non-federal loans Usually apply to both residents of a given state, as well as students who attend college in a specific state Apply early! – Complete bond offerings based on expected demand…but funds have run out on occasion when credit markets were difficult – Bond offering documents may limit percentage of loans in portfolio that can be deferred Often have broad-banded pricing in which all approved applications get the same rate Many provide differential interest rates based on repayment option selected © Student Lending Analytics, LLC Slide 13 Trends in Financial Aid And Private Student Loans Interest Rate Ranges For Variable-Rate State Programs Current Starting Interest Rate Ranges (Index + Margin) 15.0% 10.0% 8.43% 7.71% 5.0% 7.00% 4.71% 3.90% 3.91% 2.79% 1.79% 0.0% Fees North Dakota Minnesota Texas 0 to 2% None None Vermont 0% to 5% North Carolina None Maine 0 to 4% Source: SLA analysis of state alternative loan program websites, November 2009 © Student Lending Analytics, LLC Slide 14 Trends in Financial Aid And Private Student Loans Interest Rate Ranges For Fixed-Rate State Programs Current Starting Interest Rate Ranges (Index + Margin) 15.0% 10.0% 8.89% 8.75% 7.60% 6.80% 5.99% 7.55% 7.30% 7.92% 7.62% 7.75% 8.49% 7.90% 7.75% 7.76% 6.00% 5.0% 0.0% Fees ND TX 0-2% 3-5% CT AK 3% 5% NY 4-8% NJ 2% MA 4% IA 0-4% RI 4% Source: SLA analysis of state alternative loan program websites, November 2009 © Student Lending Analytics, LLC Slide 15 Trends in Financial Aid And Private Student Loans Repayment Options Lender Deferred In-School Interest In-School Principal & Int. Citibank X X X Chase X X X Citizens X X X Discover X X X PNC X X X X X Sallie Mae SunTrust X X X U.S. Bank X X X Wells Fargo X X X © Student Lending Analytics, LLC Slide 16 Trends in Financial Aid And Private Student Loans Borrower Benefits Lender EFT Discount Graduation Benefit Cosigner Release (In Months) Citibank 0.25% No 24 Chase 0.25% No 36 Citizens 0.50% No 36 Discover 0.25% 2% reward None PNC 0.25% No 48 Sallie Mae 0.25% No Discretion of SLM SunTrust 0.25% $300 48 U.S. Bank 0.50% No 36-48 Wells Fargo 0.25% 0.5% Rate Reduction 24 © Student Lending Analytics, LLC Slide 17 Trends in Financial Aid And Private Student Loans Standard Loan Term PNC Bank SunTrust Bank Chase Citibank Citizens Bank Discover Sallie Mae US Bank Wells Fargo 0 5 10 15 20 25 Loan Term Note: Sallie Mae repayment terms vary from 5 to 15 years depending on loan balance and year in school. PNC loan term is 20 years for loans under $40,000 Source: SLA review of lender websites, December 2009 © Student Lending Analytics, LLC Slide 18 Trends in Financial Aid And Private Student Loans What About Credit Unions? Credit Union Student Choice – – – – – – – Network of over 80 credit unions nationwide Variable-rate loans usually based on one-month LIBOR Average funded rate of 6.0% with no origination fees Structured as credit line Loan limits up to $75,000 Requires membership in credit union to apply Cosigner recommended Individual credit unions in college towns often provide competitive student loans and transparent disclosures too – University of Southern California Credit Union (3.3% to 6.8%) – University of Wisconsin Credit Union (4.0% to 9.5%) – University Credit Union serving University of Maine system (3.25% to 7.75%) Do not assume credit unions ALWAYS offer better rates and terms © Student Lending Analytics, LLC Slide 19 Trends in Financial Aid And Private Student Loans Nascent Developments To Keep An Eye On Student Loan Marketplace Peer-to-Peer – Structural issues – Capital sources – Microloans from alumni Borrower default aversion products – SafeStart for private loans Using interest rates to nudge consumer behavior – State private loan programs Source: SLA Analysis of 425 private loan lender lists, August 2009. State alternative loan programs appeared 107 times on these lists. © Student Lending Analytics, LLC Slide 20 Trends in Financial Aid And Private Student Loans Agenda How are schools thinking about their federal student loan program for 2010-11? What are trends in federal student loan program? What is current state of private student loan market? – How are schools addressing this shortfall in private student loans? How can financial aid staff inform and educate students and help them improve their financial literacy skills? © Student Lending Analytics, LLC Slide 21 Trends in Financial Aid And Private Student Loans Strategies for Dealing with Private Loan Issues 78% 73% 73% 77% Parent PLUS Co-signer 54% 60% Tuition Repayment Plans 51% 50% Counseling 25% State programs 19% 16% Institutional Loans 15% 16% Multiple Lenders Credit Unions Jun-09 Aug-08 3% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% Survey question: What are your current strategies to help students find private, nonfederal loans for the 2009-10 school year? Source: SLA Flash Survey: Private Student Loans, June 2009 (187 respondents) © Student Lending Analytics, LLC Slide 22 Trends in Financial Aid And Private Student Loans Will Multiple Applications Harm Your Credit Score? Research shows that students spend more time researching federal loan options than private student loan options New policy from Fair Isaac (FICO score) on student loan shopping – “In general, student loan shopping inquiries made during a focused time period (for example 30 days) will have little to no impact on your score.” Advice from Fair Isaac on myfico.com site: – Doing a little homework first is always a good idea no matter what type of credit you're seeking. – You can generally avoid having those inquiries affect your score if you finish your rate shopping in a reasonable amount of time. – Then try to finish your rate shopping and finalize your loan within 30 days. – Not only will loan rates be easier to compare when the quotes come only a few days apart, but you also will protect your FICO score. SLA research found loan interest rates varied from 7% to 12% based on recent shopping of 6 major lenders © Student Lending Analytics, LLC Slide 23 Trends in Financial Aid And Private Student Loans The Purchasing Decision Decision makers: Parents of undergraduates Federal funding options: Aware but confused Rationale for choosing private loans: – Time constraints – Incomplete funding to cover all costs of education – Ineligibility for Federal aid Sources for information about private loans: Rely heavily on schools Importance of name recognition: Many chose based on this factor Frequency of comparison shopping: Many went with the first loan offered to them Source: Federal Reserve Consumer Research and Testing, 2009 © Student Lending Analytics, LLC Slide 24 Trends in Financial Aid And Private Student Loans Prevalence of Private Loan Lender List 56% 34% Overall 10% 69% 21% 4-year private 10% Yes No Not Sure 42% 54% 4-year public 4% 12% 65% 2-year public 23% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Survey question: Is your institution planning to provide students with a lender list for private loans for the 2009-10 school year? Source: SLA Flash Survey: Private Student Loans, June 2009 (187 respondents) © Student Lending Analytics, LLC Slide 25 Trends in Financial Aid And Private Student Loans Lender Selection Process for 2009-10 Percentage of Respondents With Lender List for 2009-10 40% 35% 32% 30% 20% 14% 12% 8% 10% 0% Formal RFI Keep List from 08-09 All Lenders Last Informal Process 3-5 Yrs Other Survey question: Please describe your institution's process for developing a lender list for private student loans. Source: SLA Flash Survey: Private Student Loans, June 2009 (187 respondents) © Student Lending Analytics, LLC Slide 26 Trends in Financial Aid And Private Student Loans What Is a “Preferred Lender Arrangement”? Definition of preferred lender arrangement (from HEOA) – Preferred lender arrangement.--The term `preferred lender arrangement'-- (A) means an arrangement or agreement between a lender and a covered institution or an institution- affiliated organization of such covered institution • (i) under which a lender provides or otherwise issues education loans to the students attending such covered institution or the families of such students; and • (ii) that relates to such covered institution or such institutionaffiliated organization recommending, promoting, or endorsing the education loan products of the lender; NPRM: Lender list that does not have all lenders who lend to students at schools IS A “preferred lender arrangement” © Student Lending Analytics, LLC Slide 27 Trends in Financial Aid And Private Student Loans Paradox of Choice "The first effect is with all these options to choose from, people end up choosing none. They simply pass." "Second effect is that if people overcome this indecision and paralysis and choose, they may choose badly." "The third thing, which is in some ways the most surprising, is if you overcome paralysis and manage to choose, and you manage to choose well, you’ll be less satisfied with what you’ve chosen if you’ve chosen from a large set than if you’ve chosen from a small one." Source: Interview with Barry Schwartz, author of Paradox of Choice © Student Lending Analytics, LLC Slide 28 Trends in Financial Aid And Private Student Loans Requirements If You Have A PLA Disclosures on preferred lender list – Boilerplate language – Model disclosure forms with details on loans, provided by lenders – Description of process Process – Describe method and criteria for lender selection process – Identify reasons for selecting each lender Delivery of information to students/families – Timing – Placement of information Administrative – File Annual Report – Develop a Code of Conduct – Update Program Participation Agreement © Student Lending Analytics, LLC Slide 29 Trends in Financial Aid And Private Student Loans Agenda How are schools thinking about their federal student loan program for 2010-11? What are trends in federal student loan program? What is current state of private student loan market? – How are schools addressing this shortfall in private student loans? How can financial aid staff inform and educate students and help them improve their financial literacy skills? © Student Lending Analytics, LLC Slide 30 Trends in Financial Aid And Private Student Loans Exhibit A: Need For Financial Literacy Programs Source: Sallie Mae/Gallup survey on How America Pays For College, 2009. Note: 27% of survey respondents could not answer the question. © Student Lending Analytics, LLC Slide 31 Trends in Financial Aid And Private Student Loans Exhibit B: Private Loan Borrowers And Federal Aid Percentage of Students Taking Out Private Loans 100.0% 90.0% 80.0% 64% 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 14% 48% 40.0% 11% 30.0% 11% 12% 20.0% 10.0% Did Not Apply For Federal Aid Completed FAFSA, No Stafford Borrowed Less Than Maximum 38% 25% 0.0% 2003-04 2007-08 Source: Project on Student Debt analysis of NPSAS data, August 2009 © Student Lending Analytics, LLC Slide 32 Trends in Financial Aid And Private Student Loans Definitions “The process by which people improve their understanding of financial products, services and concepts, so they are empowered to make informed choices, avoid pitfalls, know where to go for help and take other actions to improve their present and long-term financial well-being.” OECD, “Improving Financial Literacy: Analysis of Issues and Policies” © Student Lending Analytics, LLC Slide 33 Average Percentage of Questions Answered Correctly Trends in Financial Aid And Private Student Loans Financial Literacy Scores Have Fallen Over 10 Year Period 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 57% 52% 52% 52% 50% 1997 2000 2002 48% 2004 2006 2008 Source: JumpStart Coalition Biennial Test of Personal Financial Literacy given to high-school seniors. Notes: From 2007 Press Release: “The 1997 survey results provide a baseline measurement by which to gauge progress toward the coalition's goal of financial competency among all 12th graders by the year 2007. “ © Student Lending Analytics, LLC Slide 34 Trends in Financial Aid And Private Student Loans Student Debt Growing By 8.4% Annually Total Student Loans (In Millions of Constant 2008 Dollars) $100,000 $90,000 Private Loans $80,000 $70,000 $60,000 $50,000 $40,000 $30,000 $20,000 Federal Loans $10,000 $0 90- 91- 92- 93- 94- 95- 96- 97- 98- 99- 00- 01- 02- 03- 04- 05- 06- 07- 0891 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 Source: College Board: Trends in Student Aid © Student Lending Analytics, LLC Slide 35 Trends in Financial Aid And Private Student Loans Defaulted Student Loan Portfolio Balance Defaulted Federal Student Loan Portfolio (in billions of dollars) 50.0 $45.6 $39.1 40.0 $31.0 $32.9 $33.6 2006 2007 2008 2009 6.2% 1.9% 16.5% 16.7% 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 2005 Annual Growth: Source: SLA Analysis of FSA Collections Report, August 2009 © Student Lending Analytics, LLC Slide 36 Trends in Financial Aid And Private Student Loans Prevalence of Programs Percentage of Total Respondents 60% 50% 48% 43% 42% 40% 28% 30% 20% 10% 0% Overall 4-year public 4-year private 2-year public Survey question #1: Does your institution currently offer a financial literacy program beyond standard entrance and exit loan counseling to your students? © Student Lending Analytics, LLC Slide 37 Percentage of Total Respondents with Literacy Program Trends in Financial Aid And Private Student Loans Financial Literacy Topics 100% 94% 86% 90% 80% 86% 73% 72% 70% 60% 52% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Budgeting Loan Repayment Credit Cards Credit Report Privacy Scholarships Survey question #9: What are the topic(s) covered by your financial literacy training? Please select ALL that apply. © Student Lending Analytics, LLC Slide 38 Percentage of Total Respondents with Literacy Program Trends in Financial Aid And Private Student Loans Program Delivery 90% 80% 79% 70% 60% 53% 46% 50% 39% 40% 30% 16% 20% 10% 0% In-person group Reference page workshops on financial aid website Handouts available upon request On-line tutorials Other Survey question #6: How does your institution administer the financial literacy program? © Student Lending Analytics, LLC Slide 39 Trends in Financial Aid And Private Student Loans Self-Evaluation Percentage of Total Respondents with Literacy Program 50% 40% 40% 30% 27% 22% 20% 10% 9% 2% 0% Excellent Very Good Good Fair Poor Survey question #12: How would you rate the current financial literacy program at your institution? © Student Lending Analytics, LLC Slide 40 Trends in Financial Aid And Private Student Loans Popular Financial Literacy Programs CashCourse 15 Guarantors - Gen. 9 Lenders - Gen. 8 EdFund 6 NSLP 6 USA Funds 6 Dept. of Ed. 4 Great Lakes 4 TG 4 Texas Tech 4 Access Group 3 0 5 10 15 20 Survey question: What source(s) would you recommend for a financial aid administrator interested in developing a financial literacy program for his/her institution? © Student Lending Analytics, LLC Slide 41 Trends in Financial Aid And Private Student Loans Entrance Counseling for Private Loans Take out federal loans before ever considering these “last resort” loans – Generally higher interest rates and less repayment flexibility than federal loans – Based on SLA research, the average private loan interest rate is 10%-11% Cosigners almost always required Know your interest rate before signing anything – Index (Prime or LIBOR) + Margin Know that your interest rate will go up – Since 1990, 1 month LIBOR has ranged from 0.3% (current) to 9.125% (11/90) – “Tyranny of calculators” Shop around! – SLA research in April 2009 found that for the same student and cosigner pairing interest rates varied from 7% to 12% © Student Lending Analytics, LLC Slide 42 Trends in Financial Aid And Private Student Loans Entrance Counseling for Private Loans Study the details in the promissory note – – – – Can the lender increase your interest rate if you are late with one payment? How many days after the due date is a payment considered late? What fees does the lender charge beyond the origination/repayment fee? How frequently will your interest rate change? Monthly payment change? Borrowers have option to cancel the loan If you can pay interest only during while you are in school, DO IT! – It can save you thousands of dollars in loan repayment Expand your alternatives by considering credit unions or state-run alternative loan programs DO NOT take out a private loan if you can avoid it! © Student Lending Analytics, LLC Slide 43 Trends in Financial Aid And Private Student Loans Exit Counseling for Private Student Loans Congratulations on your upcoming graduation…now it is time to repay your student loans! These loans will not go away if you don’t pay them – May not be dischargeable in bankruptcy – Stay with you even in death Once you have settled down to your new address, notify your lender so coupon books/statements will reach you Find your original paperwork, including your promissory note and Disclosure Statement – Contact lender if you can’t find it Be pro-active with the borrower benefits that you were promised Confirm the date that your first payment will be due – Typically have 6 month grace period after graduation © Student Lending Analytics, LLC Slide 44 Trends in Financial Aid And Private Student Loans Exit Counseling for Private Student Loans Do not be surprised that your current loan balance is higher than the amount of your original loan If you are concerned about your ability to make payments on your loans, contact the lender immediately to discuss your options – Forbearance allows you to postpone payments Your monthly payment will typically be adjusted quarterly or annually by the lender – Expect that interest rates and therefore your monthly payment will increase as the economy improves Set up your monthly student loan payment on auto-pay – Earn a reduction in interest rates from 0.25% to 0.50% – Eliminate potential for late fees, which can run as high as $30 If you are ready to pay down some extra principal, contact the lender in case you need to make any special notation on the payment © Student Lending Analytics, LLC Slide 45 Trends in Financial Aid And Private Student Loans Questions ????? © Student Lending Analytics, LLC Slide 46 Student Lending Analytics Contact Information Tim Ranzetta Student Lending Analytics LLC 650-218-8408 tranzetta@studentlendinganalytics.com www.studentlendinganalytics.com © Student Lending Analytics, LLC Slide 47 Trends in Financial Aid And Private Student Loans Student Lending Analytics: Resources Available SLA Private Student Loan Ratings 2009 SLA Private Loan Series – Ten part series on topics ranging from finding a cosigner to reading the promissory note Student Lending Analytics Blog – Timely, insightful information about the student loan market Private Loan Insight Survey Student Satisfaction Surveys © Student Lending Analytics, LLC Slide 48