The Paradigm of Instability:
Instability
Terrorism
Problem: How to address this vicious circle?
Shabtai Shavit, P. 1
Which political system is preferable in a terrorist
environment?
Democracy, Dictatorship or Sharia State?
Sometimes it is preferable to choose the second in
order to prevent the first from enabling the third to
take over.
(Of course, we should hope for an enlightened
dictatorship that cherishes stability security and welfare
of its citizens !)
Shabtai Shavit, P.2
Pre–Conditions and Conducive Factors for
The Survival and Growth of Terrorism:
•
Political instability and/or a political vacuum
•
Financial resources
•
Media as a force–multiplier
•
Free communication
•
Territory for training, preparing and launching terrorism
Shabtai Shavit, P. 3
Which of the above components exist?
• The Middle–East is one big
quagmire of instability !
• Abundance of financial
support:
States supporting terrorism
Various political and
economic wealthy groups,
o Interested wealthy religious
entities & donations
o Big profits from cooperation
with organized crime
o
o
•
•
Terrorism receives free
media coverage real-time
and globally
Internet as the
“Wet Dream” of any
Terrorist.
Shabtai Shavit, P. 4
The free world global cooperation is a pre-requisite for
success in fighting terrorism.
“Simply put, international terrorism made international cooperation
mandatory rather than elective”.
John Ashcroft
• Intelligence sharing
• Operational cooperation
• Blocking financial flow
• Streamline in legal legislation
Shabtai Shavit, P. 5
What do we have at present and where is it heading?
Post Sep.11 2001 until 2008 - a huge leap in:
•
Organizational Reforms (HLS)
•
First Priority on the list of threats
•
Budgets allocation
•
Technology R&D
•
Development of new military doctrines & technologies
•
Legislation
Shabtai Shavit, P. 6
Since the Global Financial Crises, the overall landscape tips in
favor of terrorism:
•
Priorities of Western democracies have changed to
domestic issues.
•
American withdrawal from Iraq and Afghanistan have
proved to the leaders of radical Islam that America is tired
of wars.
Shabtai Shavit, P. 7
Obama attitude in the cases of:
•
•
•
•
Libya - leading from behind;
Mubarak - Democracy above all;
Syria - Passing initiative to Putin;
Sisi - Muslim Brotherhood are a
legitimate player;
• Iran - Negotiation and not
containment .
is a “Death Blow” to the perception of America as the Savior of the
world (security & political stability precursors to economic growth).
Shabtai Shavit, P. 8
Europe’s perception is of an entity that has
lost its compass. Instead of perusing
federal unity it goes the other way around
(results of last election to the EU
Parliament).
Bi-Polar World
1945
One Polar World (USA)
1990
Multi Polar World
2005
Will play
to the hands
of radicals
Shabtai Shavit, P. 9
Some indicative phenomena in recent years that radical
Islam has not yet reached its zenith
The “Spring-Revolutions” as a catalyst to extremism
and fanaticism:
• No case of successful transition of political regime.
• “The social networks only succeeded to reach the heights of the
minarets” (Tom Fridman)
• Homegrown terrorists are a force-multiplier and a strategic threat.
• Since the revolution in Libya, radical Islam has spread southward
till Benin and Togo, causing havoc to the continent.
• The abduction of 400 girls in Nigeria; Use of chemical warfare; use
of IEDs in scale unknown before- indication that radical terrorism
has not yet exhausted its means of terror.
Shabtai Shavit, P. 10
Does it Affect Israel and How?
• The working assumption is that the Islamic Palestinian terror is
deeply inspired by the Global Jihad, yet at today’s juncture,
various constraints limit the Hamas and Islamic Jihad terror
activity.
• Continuous flow of Jihadists from Afghanistan in the east,
westward to Iraq, Syria and the Sinai.
• Global Jihad already has a presence along Israel borders and has
perpetrated some terror acts (rockets launching) from the Sinai
and Jordan.
• The Syrian border is still quiet. The question is- for how long?
Shabtai Shavit, P. 11
Does it Affect Israel and How?
• The threat from Sinai and Jordan can be addressed through good
cooperation with the Jordanians and the Egyptians.
Which is not the case with the Syrians.
• On the Syrian front we should be vigilant and prepared for any
eventuality.
• Potential cooperation between Hezbollah and Jihadist forces
should be expected .
• The global envelope, at this point of time, probably will not be
enthusiastic to intervene, in case of a deterioration of the
situation to open or full fledge hostilities.
Shabtai Shavit, P. 12