The Limits of Resilience:
A Unified Model of Development
Oslo-RBUP
June, 2009
Arnold Sameroff
sameroff@umich.edu
How do we understand how some
children succeed?
How can we improve the lives
of the other children?
?
X
Y
Babies
Adult
Mental Health
Agendas for
Intervention Professionals
1. Academic
• How do we understand
children?
2. Social
• How do we improve
children?
3. Political
• Who is responsible for
children?
Agendas for
Intervention Professionals
1. Academic Agenda
How do we understand children?
Unified Theory of Child Development
1.
2.
3.
4.
Personal Change Model
Contextual Model
Regulation Model
Representational Model
DEVELOPMENT
1. Personal Change Model
Trait
INFANCY
CHILDHOOD
TIME
ADOLESCENCE
ADULTHOOD
Newborn
Biological
Condition
Childhood
Behavioral
Outcomes
Normal
Normal
High Risk
Delayed
Impaired
Disabled
Newborn
Biological
Condition
Normal
Divergent
Development
(Multifinality)
Childhood
Behavioral
Outcomes
Normal
High Risk
Delayed
Impaired
Disabled
Convergent
Development
(Equifinality)
1. Personal Change Model
DEVELOPMENT
Growth
INFANCY
CHILDHOOD
TIME
ADOLESCENCE
ADULTHOOD
1. Personal Change Model
DEVELOPMENT
ADULTHOOD
ADOLESCENCE
PRESCHOOL
INFANCY
TIME
Continuity and Discontinuity
• What stays the same over time?
• What changes over time?
Temperament/Personality
Intelligence/Executive Functions
Relationships/Attachment
Relation of Socioeconomic Status
to IQ Scores
Normalized IQ Score
1.5
1
I
II
III
IV
V
0.5
0
-0.5
-1
-1.5
4-Mos.
1-Yr.
2.5-Yrs. 4-Yrs.
Age
13-Yrs. 18-Yrs.
Requirements for a
Unified Theory of Development
1. Personal Change Model
2. Contextual Model
3. Regulation Model
4. Representational Model
Social Ecological Model
GEOPOLITICAL
COMMUNITY
FAMILY
PARENT
SCHOOL
CHILD
CHILD
PEERS
Rochester Longitudinal Study
Infancy
Arnold Sameroff
Melvin Zax
Early Childhood
Ronald Seifer
Ralph Barocas
Adolescence
Alfred Baldwin
Clare Baldwin
Tim Kasser
Adulthood
Katherine Rosenblum
Lisa Slominski
30-Year Rochester Longitudinal Study
• N~250 Families
• Data Waves
– Infancy
– Preschool
– Adolescence
– Adulthood
(Birth-1 yr.)
(2-1/2 – 4 yrs.)
(13 - 18 yrs.)
(30 yrs.)
Social Ecology—Multiple Risk Scale
• Child - Parent
Child-Parent Interaction
Developmental Knowledge
• Parent
Parent Psychiatric History
Parent Anxiety
• Family
HH Education
HH Occupation
Family Size
Single Parent
• Social
Stressful Life Events
Minority Status
4-yr. Behavioral Outcomes
• Intellectual Competence
– WPPSI IQ
• Mental Health
– Rochester Adaptive Behavior Inventory
Effect of Risk Score on 4-year IQ
120
4-Year IQ
110
100
90
80
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Environmental Risk Score
7
8
Effect of Risk Score on 4-year Mental Health
4
ILL
3
SYMPTOMATIC
2
HEALTHY
1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Environmental Risk Score
7
8
National Head Start/Public School
Early Childhood Transition
Demonstration Study
(Steve Peck, Craig Ramey, Sharon Ramey)
• N=7,515 Children
• 31 Programs in 30 States
• Longitudinal Study from KG-to 3rd Grade
• 14 Risk Factors
Head Start Transition Study
Academic Competence X KG Risk Groups
100
90
Acad Comp - KG
Acad Comp - 1ST
Acad Comp - 2ND
Acad Comp - 3RD
80
.00
1.00
2.00
Kindergarten Risk Group
3.00
Transition Risk Study - Whole Sample
Transition Risk Study - Whole Sample
Social Skills - P X KG Risk Groups
Social Skills - T X KG Risk Groups
110
110
100
100
Soc Skills - T - ks
Soc Skills -T- 2nd
90
Soc Skills -T- 3rd
.00
1.00
2.00
Soc Skills -P- 2nd
Mean
Mean
Soc Skills - T - 1s
90
3.00
3.00
Problem Behavior - P X KG Risk Groups
110
100
100
Prob Behav -T- 2nd
90
Prob Behav -T- 3rd
2.00
3.00
Mean
Mean
Problem Behavior - T X KG Risk Groups
110
Kindergarten Risk Group
2.00
Transition Risk Study - Whole Sample
Transition Risk Study - Whole Sample
1.00
1.00
Kindergarten Risk Group
Kindergarten Risk Group
.00
Soc Skills -P- 3rd
.00
Prob Behav -P- 2nd
90
Prob Behav -P- 3rd
.00
1.00
Kindergarten Risk Group
2.00
3.00
Requirements for a
Unified Theory of Development
1. Personal Change Model
2. Contextual Model
3. Regulation Model
4. Representational Model
3. Regulation Model
Other-Regulation
Self-Regulation
Development
Developmental Regulation
Self
Physiological
Emotional
Behavioral
Attentional
Others
Parenting
Schooling
Legal System
Therapies
Operationalizing Regulation:
Transactional Model
Temperament Model of Antisocial Behavior
Child
Disobedient
Temperament
time
Antisocial
Behavior
Patterson Coercion Model of Antisocial Behavior
Inept
Discipline
Parent
Child
Disobedience
time
Coercive
Behaviors
Coercive
Behaviors
Antisocial
Behaviors
3a. Transactional Regulatory Model
Other-Regulation
Self-Regulation
Development
Early Childhood Longitudinal Study
(ECLS-K)
Physical Punishment and
Child Externalizing Behavior
Collaborators
Elizabeth Gershoff
Jenifer Lansford
Holly Sexton
Pamela Davis-Kean
Parent
Punitive
.13***
Parent
Punitive
.11***
Child
Aggressive
KG
.46***
Child
Aggressive
3rd Grade
Laird et. al. 2003
Requirements for a
Unified Theory of Development
1. Personal Change Model
2. Contextual Model
3. Regulation Model
4. Representational Model
4. Representational Model
REPRESENTATION
REALITY
Representation are Not Reality
But the Interpretation of Reality
 Cognitive Representations
 Putting external world inside
 Social Representations
 Working Models
 Cultural Representations
 Ethnicity
 Social Class
 Developmental Theories
Infant Temperament Project
Ronald Seifer, Lisa Barrett, & Elizabeth Krafchuk
 120 mothers
 Videotape 10 Minute Interaction
 Mother & Own Infant
 6 Unfamiliar Mothers & Infants
 Scoring using Same Temperament Scale
 Mother rates Own Infant
 Mother rates 6 Unfamiliar Infants
 Trained Observer Rates all Infants
Triadic Adjective
Temperament Scale
Mood Scale
Intensity Scale
Activity Scale
Approach Scale
FREQUENCY
Mother-Observer Correlations Own
Infants
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Own Child
-0.30
-0.10
0.10
0.30
0.50
0.70
0.90
Correlation
Seifer, Sameroff, Barrett, L.C., & Krafchuk, E. (1994)
Mother-Observer Correlations
Unfamiliar Infants
60
FREQUENCY
50
40
30
Unfamiliar Child
20
10
0
-0.30 -0.10 0.10 0.30 0.50 0.70 0.90
Correlation
Seifer, Sameroff, Barrett, L.C., & Krafchuk, E. (1994)
Mother-Observer
Combined Correlations
60
FREQUENCY
50
40
30
Own Child
Unfamiliar Child
20
10
0
-0.30 -0.10 0.10 0.30
0.50 0.70 0.90
Correlation
Michigan Family Study
Susan McDonough, Michael MacKenzie, Kate Rosenblum
.
Mother Perceptions and Infant Crying
 200 Mothers and Infants
 7 months
 Assess Amount of Infant Crying
 Assess Mother’s Judgment of Problem
 15 months
 Assess Amount of Infant Crying
 33 months
 Assess Infant Mental Health (CBCL)
Daily Crying (Minutes)
7-month Mother’s Rating of Crying Problems
and
7-month Infant Daily Crying Time
50
40
F(3, 196) = 8.46, p<.001
7-Month Rating
30
No Problem
Problem
20
10
0
No
Yes
7-Months
No
Yes
15-Months
Daily Crying (Minutes)
7-month Mother’s Rating of Crying Problems
and
7 and 15-month Infant Daily Crying Time
50
40
F(3, 196) = 8.46, p<.001
7-Month Rating
30
No Problem
Problem
20
10
0
No
Yes
7-Months
No
Yes
15-Months
7-month Mother’s Rating of Crying Problems
and
33-month Child Behavior Check List Score
33m CBCL Total Score
34
32
F(3, 174)=5.22, p<.01
30
28
7-Month Rating
26
No Problem
Problem
24
22
20
18
16
No
Yes
Putting the Pieces Together
Unifying a Model of Development
1.
2.
3.
4.
Personal Model
Contextual Model
Regulation Model
Representational Model
Start with Structural Model:
What are all the pieces?
PERSON/Phenotype
Psychological System
CHILD
CHILD
PSYCHOLOGY
Mental Health
Social Competence
Communication
Cognition
Biopsychological System
CHILD
CHILD
BIOLOGY
Epigenomics
Proteomics
Neurophysiology
Health Status
Gender
PSYCHOLOGY
Mental Health
Social Competence
Communication
Cognition
BiopsychoSocial Ecological System
GEOPOLITICAL
COMMUNITY
FAMILY
PARENT
SCHOOL
BIOLOGY
Epigenomics
Proteomics
Neurophysiology
Health
Gender
PEERS
PSYCHOLOGY
Mental Health
Social Competence
Communication
Cognition
Adding Personal Change Model
Discontinuity
GROWTH
DEVELOPMENT
Continuity
TIME
TIME
Biopsychosocial Continuity Model
OTHER
INFANCY
CHILDHOOD
ADOLESCENCE
ADULTHOOD
Longitudinal Correlations for
IQ and Mental Health (MH)
IQ
MH
4-Year
4-Year
.72
.45
13-Year
13-Year
.72
.40
18-Year
18-Year
Longitudinal Correlations for
IQ and Contextual Risk
IQ
4-Year
.72
-.59
RISK
13-Year
.72
-.61
4-Year
-.47
13-Year
.77
18-Year
18-Year
.80
Reframing Continuity-Discontinuity Model
OTHER
SELF
FAMILY
INFANCY
ELEMENTARY
SECONDARY
WORK &
CHILDHOOD
ADOLESCENCE ADULTHOOD
SCHOOL
SCHOOL
NEW FAMILY
Adolescent-Junior High School Transition
OTHER
SELF
FAMILY
ELEMENTARY
SCHOOL
SECONDARY
SCHOOL
WORK &
NEW FAMILY
Junior High Age-Stage Mismatch
.
Eccles & Midgley Stage-Environment Fit Approach
Adolescent Needs
Opportunities to “Matter”
Opportunities for Autonomy
Feelings of Respect
Peer Group Affiliation
Sexual Intimacy
Close Ties to Mentors
Typical Jr. High School
Increased School Size
Increased Impersonal Bureaucracy
Increased Teacher Control
Decreased Teacher Trust
Disruptions in Peer Network
Decreased Opportunity for Close
Student-Teacher Ties
ANTI-DEVELOPMENTAL
Opportunities for Prevention or Intervention
OTHER
SELF
INFANCY
CHILDHOOD
ADOLESCENCE
ADULTHOOD