Centre for Actuarial Research
(CARe)
A Research Unit of the University of Cape Town
The Centre for Actuarial Research
and
Demographic teaching and research in
South Africa
Outline
 Background and overview of CARe
 History
 Focus areas
 Research outputs
 Demographic teaching and research
 UCT
 Other universities in South Africa (briefly)
History of CARe
 Started in 2001
 Three directors and one RA
 Four strands (Health care financing, Social
security, Demography, HIV/AIDS modelling)
 Evolved into current structure:
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Director
Three Senior Lecturers
Two Senior Researchers
Two Research Assistants and post doctoral fellowships
History of CARe
 Focus now on AIDS modelling and demography
 Unique, in that we have a teaching programme
embedded in a research unit
 reflects the awkwardness of locating technical
demography as a discipline
 “demography is an interdiscipline” Stycos (1989)
 but also the importance we attach to the symbiosis
between research and teaching
 it works well
Focus : Demographic research
 Demographic research and teaching
 Director, Senior Lecturers and post-doctoral fellows
are the ‘demographers’
 Although we each have interests in the focus areas
of others, we each have specialist interests: fertility
(TM) and mortality and population projections (RD)
 Much research involves estimation and
interpretation of results, but we have particular
interests in interrogating and improving the
methods of estimation and in devising methods for
interrogating data quality
 We are all responsible for teaching and supervision
Demographic research
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Overarching themes
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Mortality
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Improvement of old, and derivation of new, methods of
estimating demographic parameters from limited and defective
data
Derivation of population estimates
Production of fertility and mortality rates for SA
Reconciliation of mortality data from Southern and Eastern
Africa with estimates from the UN
Establishing impact of HIV/AIDS on mortality and
interventions on that
Fertility
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Patterns of childbearing in Southern and Eastern Africa
Methods and motives for contraceptive use
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Internal and international migration in SA
Migration
Focus
 HIV/AIDS modelling
 Leigh Johnson and RD are involved in developing and
using the HIV/AIDS models
 HIV/AIDS research has been contentious in South
Africa (possibly none more so than the production of
estimates of the numbers of infected, sick and dying)
 The model we work on derives from and is released
under the auspices of the Actuarial Society of South
Africa (ASSA)
 More on this in another session
Focus
 Other activities
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Research consulting
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Research seminar series
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Recent: NACA/UNDP Botswana, Gauteng government
Past: BER, Stats SA, PGWC, Cape Metro, SAAVI, various small
contracts
Around 12-15 a year, 4-6 international visitors p.a.
This year so far: Wolfgang Lutz (IIASA, AAS), Gigi Santow, Ian
Timaeus (LSHTM) and Michael Bracher
Others: e.g. Simon Gregson (Imperial, Zim MRC), Bob McCaa (U
Minnesota), Tim Dyson (LSE), Sam Clark (U Washington), David
Lam (U Michigan), Simon Sreter (Oxford), Cedeplar
Publication of monographs, occasional papers, etc
SAJD
Research highlights
 Significant contributions (with MRC) to the
definitive work on burden of disease and cause
of death in South Africa
 Publications in highly rated international
journals: Population Studies; Demographic
Research; Journal of Southern African Studies;
Sexually Transmitted Infections; AIDS
 Significant monographs written for Stats SA (2)
and the Medical Research Council (2), one of
which has been downloaded more than
20 000 times (by the time counting stopped!)
Funding
 Four main sources:
 Significant research contracts
 Other research contracts to undertake small projects
 Short courses (although primary concern is to crosssubsidise participation)
 Funding from Mellon and Hewlett Foundations to
support the development of (particularly teaching of)
technical demography – posts and scholarships
Collaboration
 Africa Centre (DSS in northern KwaZulu-Natal)
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Memorandum of Understanding
projects: modelling, validation
Graduate student from UCT working there as demographer
Dikgale (DSS in Limpopo province, SA)
LSHTM – Ian Timæus
University of Washington – Sam Clark & Adrian Raftery
Cedeplar
Collaboration
 Others
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Wolfgang Lutz (IIASA)
UN Population Division
UNAIDS Reference Group on Estimates, Modelling and
Projections
 South Africa
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MRC, HSRC, Stats SA, SAAVI
DoH, DoSD, National Treasury
TAC, C A S E, Children’s Institute, DataFirst, Saldru, BER
ASSA
Other Mellon-funded University programmes (Wits, UKZN)
 Other
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INDEPTH, Other Hewlett-funded institutions in Africa (Wits,
University of Nairobi, Gold Coast)
Demography at UCT
 Demography in South Africa was highly
politicised during the apartheid era
 Seen to be politically compromised
 No teaching or training (and very little research) into
demography at English-speaking universities in South
Africa until after 1994
 Then UNFPA funding of several institutions – not UCT
- followed by grants from the Andrew W Mellon
Foundation to three institutions in South Africa (KZN,
Wits, UCT)
 Regarded as a ‘scarce skill’ in South Africa
Demography at UCT
 At UCT, some research had been done on
demography in the late 1980s and 1990s
 historical demography, using mission station church
records to reconstruct mortality trends at the end of
the 19th century
 derivation of national life tables
 leadership role in the development of the ASSA Aids
and demographic model from the mid-1990s on
 collaborative work with the MRC.
 … but no structured teaching, training or research
programme
Demography at UCT
 The Mellon grants changed this
 1st grant (1998-2001) largely used to run a detailed
demographic, economic and anthropometric study in
the Southern Cape
 First trained demographer employed in 2000, a joint
appointment between the School of Economics
 2nd grant (2001-4) split, broadly, between CARe
(teaching) and Saldru (research)
 MPhil in demography launched in 2003
 First doctoral students enrolled
 3rd Mellon grant, 2004-7 continues in same vein
 Mellon funding ends in 2007
Demography at UCT
 Hewlett Foundation grants
 Further support for demographic teaching, training
and research
Rationale for CARe’s approach
 An audit of demographic training in Southern
and Eastern Africa, conducted in 2004-5
 Focus is unique in the region
 The only institution engaged in teaching, training and
research in technical demography
 Skills in technical demography are being lost, due in
part to the post-Cairo consensus which prioritises
reproductive health over demography
 But there is still a strong need for these skills to
estimate demographic parameters, and to assist with
planning; but data are not getting any better
Rationale for CARe’s approach
 Strong need for a (small) cadre of technically-sound
demographers, trained to
 Carefully assess and analyse local census and survey
data, to maximise the utility of this information in
informing public policy
 Estimate demographic parameters and project
populations
 Train future generations in these skills
Programmes offered
 PhD in demography
 UK model – 3 year independent research
 Coursework to ensure foundational knowledge
 Increasingly moving to a 1+3 model
 MPhil in demography
 18+ months, coursework and dissertation
 Emphasis on technical skills
 MCom in economics and demography
 Resuscitated and relaunched in 2005
 BSc in statistics and demography
 Designed as a long-term feeder for the MPhil
MPhil in Demography
 1st semester
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Basic demography
Biostatistics for
demographers
Social research methods
Topics in population
studies
Topics in Southern
African demography
 2nd semester
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Techniques of
demographic estimation
Population projections
 3rd semester
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Dissertation
(Selected) course contents
 Basic Demography
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Based on Preston, Heuveline and Guillot
Foundational material
Taught in 11 2-hour lectures
11 2-hour tutorials
Examined via open-book, computer-based
examination
(Selected) course contents
 Demographic Estimation
 Indirect techniques – starts with Manual X, but goes
on to include Relational Gompertz models and
projected parity progression ratios (Brass-Juarez);
variable-r techniques, including Synthetic Extinct
Generation methods.
 Emphasis on understanding assumptions and
application of methods
 Student-derived spreadsheets … no PASex!
 24 2-hour lectures and 24 2-hour tutorials covered in
12 weeks.
(Selected) course contents
 Population Projections
 Theory and methods of population projection
 Allowing for HIV/AIDS
 Use of different models
 Spectrum/EPP/AIM
 ASSA
 12 2-hour lectures and 12 2-hour tutorials
Current student research projects
 Doctoral Topics
 Child mortality in South Africa
 Ethnic variations in fertility in Zambia
 Masters Thesis Topics
 Fertility and birth intervals in Malawi
 Impact of HIV/AIDS on the ‘orphanhood method’ of
estimating adult mortality
 Household socio-economic determinants of mortality
 Fitting the ASSA model to Zimbabwe
 AIDS and demographic modeling of a DSS in rural
South Africa
Current student research projects
 Master’s projects (continued)
 Analysis of deaths registered by health district in the
Cape Town metropole
 Child mortality and birth spacing in Mozambique
 A new fertility schedule for use in demographic
estimation models in developing countries
 Methods of child mortality estimation applied to
Zambia and Malawi
 Fertility decline in Lesotho since the 1970s
Other training, data access and
collaborative opportunities at CARe
 Short course on demographic modelling using
the ASSA model
 Week-long course run every June-July
 Data First
 Resource centre dedicated to archiving census and
survey data
 Holds most African DHS data, as well as large
amounts of census data
 Visiting demographers
 CARe has resources to host visiting demographers for
short-term visits (<3 months) to assist in data
analysis and/or interpretation
Demographic teaching and research
elsewhere in South Africa
 Mellon-funded institutions (-2007)
 U. KwaZulu-Natal: focus on population-poverty links
 U. Witwatersrand: focus on public health and
migration. Also funded by Hewlett (2005-)
 Other institutions
 University of the North-West
 University of the Western Cape
 Most of these institutions are relatively weak in the
area of formal or technical demography