Science and Diplomacy
Montreal Protocol on Ozone Depleting Substances
K. Madhava Sarma
and
Stephen O. Andersen
Pioneering Antarctic Treaty
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Deeply Rooted in Scientific Cooperation
First to Protect a Global Commons
Applying Precaution to Limit Development
Serving as a Framework for Other Agreements
Institutionalizing Polar Atmospheric Monitoring
Setting the Stage to Discover the Ozone Hole
Hosting the Science that Condemned CFCs
Critical to Confirm Science of Ozone Recovery
PNAS
Reducing Abrupt Climate Change Risk
Using The Montreal Protocol
And Other Regulatory Actions
To Complement Cuts In CO2 Emissions
Mario Molina, Durwood Zaelke, K. Madhava Sarma,
Stephen O. Andersen, Veerabhadran Ramanathan
and Donald Kaniaru
The Montreal Protocol and its Amendments & Adjustments
Worlds
avoided
Total ODS
abundance
> The Montreal Protocol reduced global ODS production and consumption
in developed and developing nations
(Vienna Convention for the Protection of the Ozone Layer signed 22 March 1985, Montreal Protocol
on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer signed 16 September 1987; Vienna Convention and
Montreal Protocol entered into force 1 January 1989)
UNEP/WMO Ozone Assessment, 2006
Montreal Protocol Protects Climate
Montreal Protocol has
provided 10-11 times
climate protection that
Kyoto seeks
From: Velders Guus J. M., Stephen O. Andersen, John S. Daniel, David W. Fahey,
and Mack McFarland, The importance of the Montreal Protocol in protecting climate;
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, published online Mar 8, 2007.
The Antarctic & Ozone Science
• The Antarctic Treaty provided a research platform
for the science behind ozone depletion
• The Antarctic:
– Was where ozone depletion was observed at
alarming rates
– Is the location of a frightening “ozone hole” that
inspired the global action,
– Was where scientists proved the link between
CFCs and ozone depletion,
– Is where recovery of the ozone layer will first
be scientifically confirmed.
1987 Montreal Protocol on ODS
(as amended from time to time)
• Most successful environmental Treaty ever
• Only Treaty with all 195 countries of the world.
• Collaboration of scientists, governments, NGOs, media,
and the United Nations
• Multilateral Fund built assists all developing countries
• All countries implement the agreements faithfully and
report data on the 96 controlled ODSs
• Atmospheric abundance of ODSs peaked in 1994 and
has been steadily declining
• Montreal Protocol is indeed working
• Ozone layer will recover by the year 2050
• Without Montreal Protocol- ozone decrease by twothirds, many more skin cancers, cataracts, …
Reasons for Montreal Success
• Strong role played by scientists,
technologists in pace and evolution of
the Protocol control measures
• Development and deployment of ozonesafe technologies by industry
• Protocol financial regime transferring
technologies to developing countries on
fair and favourable terms
Science as Early Warning
• 1957/1958 Geophysical Year - worldwide network of
stations developed to measure ozone
• World Meteorological Organization (WMO) established
framework for ozone-observing, research, & publications
• 1970 - Paul Crutzen warns of catalytic loss of ozone by the
reaction of nitrogen oxides, even from agricultural fertilizer
• 1971 - Harold Johnston warns that nitrogen oxides from
proposed supersonic aircraft (SST) could deplete ozone
• 1972 – Crutzen estimates ozone depletion from proposed
SSTs
• 1971 - James McDonald warns that even a small change in
stratospheric ozone could significantly increase skin cancer
• 1974 – Mario Molina and Sherwood Rowland warn that
CFCs used in ordinary products can destroy the ozone layer
Science as a Force for Change
• Rowland and Molina presented finding at a press
conference at a meeting of the American Chemical Society
• Warning that even a 10 percent depletion would cause
80,000 additional cases of skin cancer each year in the
United States alone, along with genetic mutations, crop
damage, and even changes in the world’s climate
• Media coverage prompted consumer groups to demand a
ban on the use of CFCs in aerosol products
• The Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC) petitioned
the U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission to ban the
use of CFCs in cosmetic and convenience aerosol products
• Many Governments – including Canada, Sweden and USA - took measures to reduce the ODS consumption where
alternatives are available
Science as Confidence-Building
• UN organized scientists from many countries in a
collaborative effort
• UNEP 1977 meeting in Washington D.C developed a World
Plan of Action on the Ozone Layer
• WMO coordinated atmospheric research
• WHO assessed the impacts on human health, FAO
assessed biological effects, WMO developed computational
climate models, FAO developed Regional climate effects
• UNEP, ICC, OECD,& ICAO evaluated socio-economic
aspects
• UN specialized agencies and international, national,
intergovernmental, NGO, and scientific institutions identified
institutions to implement controls
• UNEP established the Coordinating Committee on the
Ozone Layer (CCOL)
Science as a Beacon to Industry
• 1975-80 - DuPont, Allied, and ICI identified safe
alternatives for some CFC applications, but did not
pursue
• Science warnings caused industry to fear local
regulation; Vienna Convention further confirmed
regulation was certain
• 1987: After a decade of opposition to regulation,
industry claimed lack of regulation prevented it from
introducing alternatives
• Within the year, industry, environmental NGOs, and
U.S. EPA as also Canadian and Japanese
companies announced voluntary national CFC
phase-out in some sectors
Science as a Tool of Diplomacy
• 1989 Assessment concludes: Protocol inadequate and that
return of Antarctic ozone layer to pre-1970s level needs
complete elimination of all ODS, technically and
economically feasible, developing countries need funding
and transfer of technology
• 1990 Protocol agrees to completely phase out by 2000,
with ten-year grace period for developing countries and a
Multilateral Fund financed by the developed countries
• 1991 assessment led to 1992 amendment, HCFCs, HBFCs
and Methyl Bromide as controlled substances;.
• Phase out of many ODS advanced to 1996 and halons to
1994.
• Further strengthening in 1995, 1997, 1999 and 2007
• 96 chemicals are on schedule for phase out
Many Other Roles of Science
• Mechanism for monitoring and verification
• Source of Assessment Reports, Antarctic Ozone
Bulletins, and more
• Measure of performance: 2006 Assessment Report
concluded that the Montreal Protocol is a success
and that the ozone layer will recover
• Record of faster phaseout, lower costs & better
products
• Quantification that the Montreal Protocol has
reduced greenhouses more than the Kyoto Protocol
and can buy time while CO2 reductions take hold
Ozone-Safe
Technology Development
• Many companies innovated new technologies fast
• Industry Motivated by respect for science, social
reputation and good will; regulatory, economic and
strategic advantage; and public relations, and
employee motivation
• Global Industry--in cooperation with government
agencies and scientists--accelerated the pace of
toxicity testing, determined environmental fate and
impacts of alternatives, speeding the elimination of
ODSs and supporting phaseout and health and
safety regulations
• Costs of eliminating ODS far less than the
consequences of ozone depletion and far less than
feared
Technology and Economic
Assessment Process
• Annual, up-to-date, technical assessments, 6
technical options committees (TOC) - Governments
cannot interfere with findings
• Governments may propose members to TOCs, but
Co-chairs decide
• Industry on the TOCs and the TEAP provides
access to cutting-edge data, often not yet published
• Code of conduct for TEAP and TOCs
• TEAP and TOCs spearheaded more aggressive
phaseout, solve the many problems faced by the
Parties, and recommended levels of MLF
replenishment for phaseout in developing countries
The Protocol Role in
Spreading Technologies
• Early action, continuous learning,
progressively tougher action, universal
agreement and compliance
• Involvement of all the Stakeholders
• Training of those involved
• Regulations and Policies, financial
incentives, disincentives, and taxes to speed
up phase out
Fund & Implementing Agency
Technology Transfer
• Developing and developed Parties equally
represented in the Fund Executive Committee
• Contributions to the MLF, 2.5 US$ billion so far
• Written indicative list of incremental costs, and the
right of MLF to interpret each entry
• National focal points and 9 regional networks
facilitate feedback to the MLF, learning from each
other, with the transfer of expertise and technology
from one country to another (including south-south
and south-north cooperation)
• Donor countries bilateral programmes encouraged
but must be approved by the Executive Committee
Conclusion
• The International Geophysical Year and
Antarctic Science Ultimately Helped Justify
Fast Action by the Montreal Protocol
• The Montreal Protocol Avoided Millions of
Deaths from Skin Cancer and the Destruction of
Agricultural and Natural Ecosystems
• All Countries Joined the Montreal Protocol
• ODS Greenhouse Gas Reductions Are Buying
Time While Climate Protocols Kick In
Contact Information
K. Madhava Sarma
Sarma_Madhava@yahoo.com
Stephen O. Andersen
SOliverAndersen@aol.com
Backup Slides
Ozone Layer and ODS
• The ozone layer protects life on earth from the
harmful effects of ultraviolet radiation (UV)
• Emissions of human made ozone-depleting
substances (ODS) destroy ozone
• UV radiation increases skin cancer, weakens
human immune systems, damages crops and
natural ecosystems and degrades paint and plastic
• Most of these ODS are also powerful greenhouse
gases that contribute to climate change that
threatens prosperity and life on earth
Ozone Depleting Substances
• Ozone-depleting CFCs invented in 1928 to replace
flammable and toxic refrigerants
• CFCs are ‘wonder gases’ non-reactive, nonflammable, low toxicity and a long atmospheric life
• By the late 1980s, more than 250 separate product
categories were made-with, or contained, ODSs
• Critical uses of ODSs-medical applications
(metered dose medicine inhalers, sterilisation);
refrigeration; air conditioning; foam; solvents for
cleaning of electronic and mechanical components;
soil, building and commodity fumigation and fire
protection
The Success of the Montreal Protocol in
Protecting Ozone
> The Montreal Protocol has
slowed and reversed the
accumulation of ozone depleting
substances (ODSs) in the
stratosphere.
(Effective stratospheric chlorine is the
weighted sum of chlorine and bromine
gases in the stratosphere.)
UNEP/WMO Ozone Assessment, 2006
CFC Connection
• 1973 - James Lovelock observed CFCs
everywhere
• 1974 - Mario J. Molina and F. Sherwood Rowland
warned that CFCs could reach the stratosphere,
decompose, release chlorine atoms, become a
catalytic chain reaction; with a single chlorine atom
would destroy as many as 100,000 molecules of
ozone.
• “If industry continued to release a million tons of
CFCs into the atmosphere each year, atmospheric
ozone would eventually drop by 7 to 13 percent.”
Antarctic Ozone Hole Discovery
• 1984 Shigeru Chubachi - Japanese Meteorological
Research Institute - quietly reports Antarctic ozone
depletion
• 1985: Vienna Convention for the Protection of the
Ozone layer: further research, but no steps for
curbing CFCs
• 1985: Assessment of the state of the ozone layer
• 1985: Joseph Farman, B.G. Gardiner, and J.D.
Shanklin – British Antarctic Survey-- loudly report
discovery of the ozone hole
Montreal Protocol 1987
• 1987: Airborne Antarctic Ozone Experiment’s
“smoking gun” data to prove link of CFCs to ozone
depletion
• September 16, 1987: 24 Governments agreed on
the Montreal Protocol
• Only mild control measures in first Protocol so that
all countries could come aboard
• Article 6 of the Protocol agreed periodic scientific,
technological and economic assessment, Protocol
will be revised based assessment
• 1988: Scientific, Environmental, Technology, and
Economic Assessments were initiated