Financial Results Wednesday 7 April, 2004 1 Cautionary note on forward-looking statements This presentation includes forward-looking statements. These statements are based on currently available information and consistent accounting policies as applied at 31 December 2003. They reflect Lloyd’s current expectations, projections and forecasts about future events and financial performance. All forward-looking statements address matters that involve risks, uncertainties and assumptions. Based on a number of factors, actual results could vary materially from those anticipated by the forward-looking statements. These factors include, but are not limited to, the following: Rates and terms and conditions of policies may vary from those anticipated. Actual claims paid and the timing of such payments may vary from estimated claims and estimated timings of payments, taking into account the preliminary nature of such estimates. Claims and loss activity may be greater or more severe than anticipated, including as a result of natural or man-made catastrophic events. Competition on the basis of pricing, capacity, coverage terms or other factors may be greater than anticipated. Reinsurance placed with third parties may not be fully recoverable, or may not be paid on a timely basis, or such reinsurance from creditworthy reinsurers may not be available or may not be available on commercially attractive terms. Developments in the financial and capital markets may adversely affect investments of capital and premiums, or the availability of equity capital or debt. Changes in legal, regulatory, tax or accounting environments in relevant countries may adversely affect (i) Lloyd’s ability to offer its products or attract capital, (ii) claims experience, (iii) financial return, or (iv) competitiveness. Economic contraction or other changes in general economic conditions could adversely affect (i) the market for insurance generally or for certain products offered by Lloyd’s, or (ii) other factors relevant to Lloyd’s performance. The foregoing list of factors is not comprehensive, and should be read in conjunction with other cautionary statements that are included herein or elsewhere. Lloyd’s undertakes no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statement, whether as a result of new information, future developments or otherwise. 2 Agenda Introduction Lord Levene Chairman 2003 Results Nick Prettejohn Chief Executive Questions 3 2003 Results - highlights Profit of £1,892m* for 2003 (£834m for 2002) Further reduction in combined ratio to 90.7% (2002: 98.6%) Initial profit projection of £1,780m for 2003 underwriting year (3 year accounting basis) 39% increase in central assets to £781m Net resources up 35% to £10.1bn *Pro-forma annual accounting basis 4 Annual accounting results £m 2002 2003 Net earned premiums 10,669 11, 711 +10% Net incurred claims (6,652) (6,697) +1% Net operating expenses (3,586) (3,985) +11% (401) (30) -93% Investment return 804 893 +11% Profit on ordinary activities 834 1,892 +127% Loss on exchange *Pro-forma annual accounting basis 5 2003 Annual accounting results Premiums % increase on 2002 12 11.0 9.8 10 8 6 4 2.5 2 1.4 0 Constant exchange rates Gross written premium *Pro-forma annual accounting basis 6 Net earned premium 2003 Annual accounting results Outwards reinsurance premiums % ceded 35 31.1 30 25.4 25 20 15 10 5 0 2002 *Pro-forma annual accounting basis 7 2003 2003 Annual accounting results Premiums: on-going businesses % increase on 2002 30 26.2 25 20 15 10 8.7 5 0 Gross written premium *Pro-forma annual accounting basis 8 Net earned premium Annual accounting results £m 2002 2003 Net earned premiums 10,669 11, 711 +10% Net incurred claims (6,652) (6,697) +1% Net operating expenses (3,586) (3,985) +11% (401) (30) -93% Investment return 804 893 +11% Profit on ordinary activities 834 1,892 +127% Loss on exchange *Pro-forma annual accounting basis 9 2003 Annual accounting results Net catastrophe losses £m 3,000 2,663 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 642 500 445 408 272 178 250 206 87 142 0 1994 1995 Source: Syndicate quarterly returns 10 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2003 Results – reserve strengthening £m Current accident year 2,437 Reserve strengthening (545) Profit on ordinary activities before tax 1,892 *Pro-forma annual accounting basis 11 Annual accounting results £m 2002 2003 Net earned premiums 10,669 11, 711 +10% Net incurred claims (6,652) (6,697) +1% Net operating expenses (3,586) (3,985) +11% (401) (30) -93% Investment return 804 893 +11% Profit on ordinary activities 834 1,892 +127% Loss on exchange *Pro-forma annual accounting basis 12 Annual accounting results £m 2002 2003 Net earned premiums 10,669 11, 711 +10% Net incurred claims (6,652) (6,697) +1% Net operating expenses (3,586) (3,985) +11% (401) (30) -93% Investment return 804 893 +11% Profit on ordinary activities 834 1,892 +127% Loss on exchange *Pro-forma annual accounting basis 13 Annual accounting results £m 2002 2003 Net earned premiums 10,669 11, 711 +10% Net incurred claims (6,652) (6,697) +1% Net operating expenses (3,586) (3,985) +11% (401) (30) -93% Investment return 804 893 +11% Profit on ordinary activities 834 1,892 +127% Loss on exchange *Pro-forma annual accounting basis 14 Lloyd's combined ratio % 110 100 98.6 90.7 90 80 70 60 50 2002 *Pro-forma annual accounting basis 15 2003 Lloyd's: performance by class of business 2003 Calendar year combined ratios % 120 110.4 110 100 93.6 89.4 90 93.0 89.7 89.3 83.4 80 70 60 50 Casualty Property Reinsurance *Pro-forma annual accounting basis at syndicate level 16 Motor Marine Energy Aviation Lloyd's vs Industry 2003 Combined Ratios % 130 121.3 120 113.3 107.5 110 100 98.6 101.4 100.7 101.2 European P/C & R/I Industry (i) US P/C Industry (ii) US R/I Industry (iii) 90.7 90 80 70 60 50 Lloyd's* 2002 2003 Sources i) Company data, ii) Insurance Information Institute estimate, iii) Reinsurance Association of America *Pro-forma annual accounting basis 17 Underwriting year result & projection £m 2001 account result 2002 account projection 1,671 2003 account projection 1,780 * Three year accounting basis 18 (2,378) Net incurred loss ratio development 1998-2003 % 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Quarter 1998 1999 2000 2001 Source: Lloyd’s audited annual accounts NB All ratio denominators are Q12 actual or estimated ultimate premiums for open years 19 2002 2003 Net incurred loss ratio development 1993-1997 vs 2002 & 2003 % 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Quarter 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 Source: Lloyd’s audited annual accounts NB All ratio denominators are Q12 actual or estimated ultimate premiums for open years 20 2002 2003 Balance Sheet £m 2002 2003 Cash & investments 24,512 27, 893 +14% Reinsurers’ share of technical provisions 13,693 11,180 -18% Other assets 11,091 9,830 -11% Total assets 49,296 48,903 -1% Total liabilities (41,787) (38,758) -7% Net resources 7,509 10,145 +35% 21 Lloyd’s central assets £m Central Fund Corporation of Lloyd’s Total 22 711 +49% 70 -20% 781 +39% Lloyd’s central assets £m 1,000 781 800 563 600 400 363 200 0 2001 23 2002 2003 2003 central assets – Central Fund arbitration £m 1,000 Net potential exposure same as last year Arbitration due later this year Lloyd’s position unchanged 800 290 600 400 781 491 200 0 2003 24 2003 Central assets – post 9/11 target achieved $1,398 @ USD 1.79 $1,188 @ 2001 exchange rates £m 1,000 781 800 563 600 400 363 200 0 2001 25 2002 2003 No increase in capacity 2004 vs 2003 £bn 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 2004 2003 Capacity Qualifying Quota Share Source: 2003 final stamp capacity, 2004 first stamp capacity. QQS latest business plan estimates 26 Market conditions remain attractive Premium rating index 2003 2002 2003 2004 Calendar year combined ratios Casualty 100 121 130 110.4 Property 100 103 98 89.4 Reinsurance 100 104 102 89.3 Motor 100 107 106 93.6 Marine 100 115 121 89.7 Energy 100 104 96 83.4 Aviation 100 98 94 93.0 *Pro-forma annual accounting basis 27 Industry fundamentals – the same one year on External Influences Capital Markets Industry Reserve Strengthening 28 Lloyd’s Influences Franchise Implementation UNDERWRITING PROFIT 2003 – A year of continued progress Implementation of the Franchise Transition towards limited liability Move to annual accounting Progress on Business Process Reform 29 Summary – Another year of progress and profit A year of continued progress against strategic objectives A year of strong financial results £1.9 billion profit, helped by low catastrophe losses but after reserve strengthening Combined ratio of 90.7%, outperforming our international peer group Substantial increase in balance sheet resources (central assets up 39%, net resources up 35%) Market conditions attractive and fundamentals unchanged No room for complacency *Pro-forma annual accounting basis 30 Financial Results Wednesday 7 April, 2004 31