Parameter, Statistic and Random Samples • A parameter is a number that describes the population. It is a fixed number, but in practice we do not know its value. • A statistic is a function of the sample data, i.e., it is a quantity whose value can be calculated from the sample data. It is a random variable with a distribution function. Statistics are used to make inference about unknown population parameters. • The random variables X1, X2,…, Xn are said to form a (simple) random sample of size n if the Xi’s are independent random variables and each Xi has the sample probability distribution. We say that the Xi’s are iid. week1 1 Example – Sample Mean and Variance • Suppose X1, X2,…, Xn is a random sample of size n from a population with mean μ and variance σ2. • The sample mean is defined as 1 n X Xi. n i 1 • The sample variance is defined as 1 n 2 X i X . S n 1 i 1 2 week1 2 Goals of Statistics • Estimate unknown parameters μ and σ2. • Measure errors of these estimates. • Test whether sample gives evidence that parameters are (or are not) equal to a certain value. week1 3 Sampling Distribution of a Statistic • The sampling distribution of a statistic is the distribution of values taken by the statistic in all possible samples of the same size from the same population. • The distribution function of a statistic is NOT the same as the distribution of the original population that generated the original sample. • The form of the theoretical sampling distribution of a statistic will depend upon the distribution of the observable random variables in the sample. week1 4 Sampling from Normal population • Often we assume the random sample X1, X2,…Xn is from a normal population with unknown mean μ and variance σ2. • Suppose we are interested in estimating μ and testing whether it is equal to a certain value. For this we need to know the probability distribution of the estimator of μ. week1 5 Claim • Suppose X1, X2,…Xn are i.i.d normal random variables with unknown mean μ and variance σ2 then 2 X ~ N , n • Proof: week1 6 Recall - The Chi Square distribution • If Z ~ N(0,1) then, X = Z2 has a Chi-Square distribution with parameter 1, i.e., X ~ 21 . • Can proof this using change of variable theorem for univariate random variables. • The moment generating function of X is 1/ 2 1 m X t 1 2 t • If X 1 ~ 2v1 , X 2 ~ 2v2 , , X k ~ 2vk , all independent then k T X i ~ 2k v i 1 1 i • Proof… week1 7 Claim • Suppose X1, X2,…Xn are i.i.d normal random variables with mean μ and variance σ2. Then, Z i X i are independent standard normal variables, where i = 1, 2, …, n and Xi 2 2 Z ~ i n i 1 i 1 n 2 n • Proof: … week1 8 t distribution • Suppose Z ~ N(0,1) independent of X ~ χ2(n). Then, T Z X /v ~ t v . • Proof: week1 9 Claim • Suppose X1, X2,…Xn are i.i.d normal random variables with mean μ and variance σ2. Then, X ~ t n 1 S/ n • Proof: week1 10 F distribution • Suppose X ~ χ2(n) independent of Y ~ χ2(m). Then, X /n ~ Fn ,m Y /m week1 11 Properties of the F distribution • The F-distribution is a right skewed distribution. • Fm,n 1 Fn,m i.e. PFn ,m 1 1 1 a P P Fm,n F a n ,m a • Can use Table 7 on page 796 to find percentile of the F- distribution. • Example… week1 12 Recall - The Central Limit Theorem • Let X1, X2,…be a sequence of i.i.d random variables with mean n E(Xi) = μ < ∞ and Var(Xi) = σ2 < ∞. Let S n X i i 1 S n n converges in distribution to Z ~ N(0,1). n Then, Z n • Also, Z n Xn n converges in distribution to Z ~ N(0,1). • Example… week1 13