Week 3 and 4 Presentation is from: Class notes of Prof. Gerald Shively Purdue University (AGEC 640: Agricultural Development and Policy) Introduction to Agricultural Policy: Farm problems and food problems • First, some brainstorming: – What are the problems addressed by ag. policy? – What solutions are offered by policymakers? Where do we see what types of policy? Source: World Bank data, reprinted from UNEP/GRID-Arendal Maps and Graphics Library (http://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/world-bank-country-income-groups). This is the usual pattern: the “development paradox” The “development paradox” in East Asia, 1955-2002 Average Nominal Rate of Protection for Agricultural Production in East Asia, 1955-2002 Source: K. Anderson (2006), “Reducing Distortions to Agricultural Incentives: Progress, Pitfalls and Prospects.” <www.worldbank.org/agdistortions> The “development paradox” worldwide, 1960-2005 Effect of policy on farm product prices, by income level All Primary Products 1.0 1.5 Tradables 0.0 -0.5 NRA 0.5 Support for farmers -1.0 ≈ $5,000/yr Taxation of farmers 6 8 10 6 8 10 Income per capita (log) Note: Data shown are regression lines and 95% confidence intervals through annual national-average NRAs for over 68 countries, covering more than 90% of world agriculture in each year from 1960 through 2005. All Primary Products Exportables Importables Source: W.A. Masters and A. Garcia, “Agricultural Price Distortion and Stabilization: Stylized Facts and Hypothesis Tests,” in K. Anderson, ed., Political Economy of Distortions to Agricultural Incentives. Washington, DC: The World Bank, 2009. Why is this pattern paradoxical? The development paradox: employment and earnings Source: Reprinted from World Bank, World Development Report 2008. Washington, DC: The World Bank (www.worldbank.org/wdr2008) Share of output from agriculture and mining in eight high-income countries, 1860-1960 What happens next? Does the share fall to zero? Source: Reprinted from T.P. Tomich. P. Kilby and B.F. Johnston, 1995. Transforming Traditional Agriculture. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press. The structural transformation is from agriculture to industry… Share of output from industry in eight high-income countries, 1860-1960 …but what happens next to industry’s share? Source: Reprinted from T.P. Tomich. P. Kilby and B.F. Johnston, 1995. Transforming Traditional Agriculture. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press. …over the full span of development, employment shifts to services… Percent of workforce by sector in the United States, 1800-2005 today, about 80% of jobs are in services in 1800, employment was 90% farming in 1930s-70s, industry reached about 40% agricultural employment has stabilized Source: U.S. Economic Report of the President 2007 (www.gpoaccess.gov/eop) Another example of structural transformation over the long run… Percent of GDP by sector in Australia, 1901-2000 Source: Government of Australia (2001), Economic Roundup – Centenary Edition, Department of the Treasury, Canberra. As agriculture’s share of the economy declines, does farm income also fall? Agricultural Employment as a Share of Civilian Employment and Real Farm Output as a Share of Real GDP Until the 1930s, employment and output fell together and then both stopped falling …then employment fell much faster than output SOURCE: U.S. Department of Commerce and the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Reprinted from K.L. Kliesen and W. Poole, 2000. "Agriculture Outcomes and Monetary Policy Actions: Kissin' Cousins?" Federal Reserve Bank of Sf. Louis Review 82 (3): 1-12. Source: BL Gardner, 2000. “Economic Growth and Low Incomes in Agriculture.” AJAE 82(5): 1059-1074. Thousands of 1992 dollars per farm Percent of non-farm income The US farm-nonfarm earnings gap, 1910-2000 Structural transformation: the story so far… (1) Farming declines as a fraction of the economy, as industry and services grow (2) Farmers’ incomes decline relative to other workers, but then catch up –in the U.S., • farmers’ incomes began to catch up in 1933 • farmers’ incomes passed non-farmers in 1990s (3) What happens within agriculture? Does total world agricultural output decline? Source: Reprinted from FAO, State of Food and Agriculture 2007. Rome: FAO (www.fao.org) The structural transformation in world trade: Agriculture’s share fell while its value rose Source: Reprinted from FAO, State of Food and Agriculture 2007. Rome: FAO (www.fao.org) Within agriculture, the structural transformation brings specialization for inputs and marketing Source: Reprinted from World Bank, World Development Report 2008. Washington, DC: The World Bank (www.worldbank.org/wdr2008) The stylized facts of structural transformation (1) Farming declines as a fraction of the economy, as industry and services grow (2) Farmers’ incomes decline relative to other workers, but then catch up (3) Within agriculture, row-crop production fluctuates while agroprocessing and agribusiness grows … but what drives this change? what explains it? Explaining Structural Transformation Can consumers’ income growth explain the shift? – Engel’s law • As income grows, demand increases less for food and ag. products than for other things – The income-consumption curve for food is relatively flat – Income elasticity of demand for food < 1 – Bennett’s law • As income grows, demand increases least for basic staples and rises for higher value foods – The income-consumption curve for staples is very flat – Income elasticity of demand for staples ≈ 0 – Evidence for “increasing demand for variety Engel’s Law for (Global) Food Source: “Food Shares in Consumption: New Evidence Using Engel Curves for the Developing World” Rafael De Hoyos and Rebecca Lessem (2008) https://mywebspace.wisc.edu/rlessem/web/engel.pdf Engel’s Law for food in Vietnam Source: Le, Canh Quang (2008) “An Empirical Study of Food Demand in Vietnam” ASEAN Economic Bulletin 25(3): 283-292. Explaining Structural Transformation Can new technology explain the shift? – New farm technology: “Cochrane’s Treadmill” • New farm technologies that increase output might lower prices and “push” farmers out • The demand curve for food is relatively steep – Food demand is price-inelastic: – Price elasticity for food < 1 in absolute value – Non-farm technology: bright lights, big city • New nonfarm technologies that create opportunities might “pull” farmers into nonfarm work – Are we living in a “Harris-Todaro” world? • The demand curve for non-food is not as flat as for food – Non-food demand is price-elastic – Price elasticity for non-food >1 in abs. value Engel’s Law for manufactured goods in Malaysia Source: Siddique, M. A. B. (1997) “Demand for machinery and manufactured goods in Malaysia” Mathematics and Computers in Simulation 43(3-6): 481-486. Explaining Structural Transformation Limited land area may matter most of all: – Because total land area is fixed, • farmers’ savings and investment eventually runs out of uses on the farm, and is applied to other uses • farmers’ earnings are linked to the number of farmers, acres per farmer and earnings per acre – As # farmers grows… – Acres per farmer declines… – earnings per acre falls and earnings per farmer falls » Until ??? Conclusions and the road ahead • Ag policies vary widely but show some regularities over time & across countries • A key regularity is the “development paradox”: – In poor countries, policies often try to reduce food prices – In richer countries, usually switch to raise farm incomes • This is closely linked to “structural transformation”, – from farm to non-farm employment and earnings – which in turn is closely linked to… Drivers of Change: Population growth and economic transformation • Last class: – broad diversity of policy problems and policy actions, but also – strong regularities (“stylized facts”): – the development paradox, from taxing to subsidizing farmers – the structural transformation, from farm to nonfarm activity • Today: – a key driver (from outside, exogenous to agriculture) is demography: – the demographic transition – from large to small families – high to low death rates and birth rates – high to low fraction of people who are children …and other corresponding changes Slide 27 Terminology: Demography and economics • The English language can be very confusing: • “demography”: study of population, also the population itself • “population growth”: increasing number of people • “demographics”: measured characteristics of the population • But… • the “economy”: the prod. & cons. activities of a population • “economic growth”: increases in prod. & cons. per person • “economics”: a way of studying the economy • And… •“demographic structure”: the composition of the population –usually age structure (% who are children, working-age, elderly) • “economic structure”: the composition of the economy Slidemanuf.) 28 –usually sectoral structure (% in ag., services, mining and Demographic transition A pattern of steadily increasing population growth, followed by a period of slowing population growth (as experienced by industrialized countries). Generally indicated as an S-shaped curve for population through time. Slide 29 Frank Notestein (b. 1945) Three stages of population growth 1. High growth potential 2. Transitional growth 3. Incipient decline 1 2 3 Slide 30 1. High growth potential Pre-industrial Birth rate high (25-40/1000) Death rate high Life expectancy short Population growth low but positive Widespread misery Slide 31 2. Transitional growth Early industrial Birth rate remains high (or rises!) Death rate low and falling Life expectancy rises Population growth “explosive” Mortality declines before fertility due to better health, nutrition, and sanitation Slide 32 3. Incipient decline Industrial Birth rate drops due to desires to limit family size Death rate low and stable Life expectancy high Population grows until birth rate = death rate Characterized by higher levels of wealth and reduced need for large families for labor or insurance. Slide 33 A Stylized Model* of Demographic Transition The gap between birth and death rates is the population’s “rate of natural increase” (≈ population growth) * In what sense is this a model? Is it an economic model as per last week’s class? Slide 34 An actual demographic transition Sweden’s population growth rate peaked at about 1.5% per year, in the late 19th century Slide 35 A different demographic transition Mauritius’ peak pop. growth rate was over 3%/year, twice that of Sweden, because its death rate fell so fast… Slide 36 A third kind of transition Mexico’s peak population growth was even faster, because its birth rate fell slowly… Slide 37 Message: Birth rates > death rates, country is still in stage 2 of the demographic transition Slide 38 Birth and death rates depend in part on age structure and “population momentum” Slide 39 A very young age structure: the population pyramid for Nigeria 1980, 2000, 2020 Reprinted from www.census.gov/ipc/www/idb. Slide 40 A later stage of demographic transition: population pyramids for Indonesia 1980, 2000, 2020 Reprinted from www.census.gov/ipc/www/idb. Indonesia has a much more “mature” population pyramid than Nigeria Slide 41 transition: population pyramids for the United States 1980, 2000, 2020 Reprinted from www.census.gov/ipc/www/idb. The population “ages”, with continued echoes of the post-WWII baby boom Slide 42 The lower-income regions have had a later (and much faster!) demographic transition Slide 43 Africa’s pop. growth has been of unprecedented speed and duration, but is now slowing Slide 44 Africa’s child dependency has been similarly unprecedented, and is now improving No. of children (0-14) per 100 adults (15-59) 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 E. Asia S. Asia Sub-Sah. Africa Whole World Slide 45 Source: UN Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2000 Revision (http://esa.un.org/unpp) Explaining the demographic transition What can account for the patterns we’ve seen, including especially the late and rapid demographic growth and child dependency in poor regions? Will look first at mortality decline, then fertility decline… Slide 46 Explaining the mortality decline (UK data) Slide 47 Explaining the mortality decline (US data) Slide 48 The age structure of mortality decline Slide 49 The HIV/AIDS tragedy Slide 50 Explaining the fertility decline: social policies Slide 51 Source: K. Sundstrom. “Can governments influence population growth?” Explaining the fertility decline: infant mortality Slide 52 Conclusions on population growth and the demographic transition • Much popular understanding about population growth turns out to be wrong. • In fact, over time and across countries: – population growth starts with a fall in child mortality, which raises growth because fertility decline happens later – the temporary burst of population growth involves a rise and then fall in the fraction of people who are children – these changes are similar in all countries, but in today’s poor countries they occurred later and faster, with larger magnitude over shorter time period than occurred historically elsewhere Slide 53 What happens to the number of farmers? Slide 54 Slide 54 What happens to the number of farmers? • Initially, farmers are much poorer than nonfarmers – less capital/worker, lower skills, less specialized so agriculture is the residual employer… annual change in the number of farmers depends on growth in the total population growth in nonfarm employment Slide 55 In the world as a whole, the number of farmers has just peaked and will soon decline Slide 56 Regions differ sharply in their population growth rates Source: Calculated from FAOStat data (www.fao.org). Slide 57 Cities are growing much faster than total population Source: Calculated from FAOStat data (www.fao.org). Slide 58 …but cities are still too small to absorb all population growth, especially in S. Asia and Africa Source: Reprinted from W.A. Masters, 2005. “Paying for Prosperity: How and Why to Invest in Agricultural R&D in Africa.” Journal of International Affairs 58(2): 35-64. Slide 59 Conclusions on economic growth and structural transformation As incomes grow… (1) Farming declines as a fraction of the economy • in favor of industry and services • even within agriculture (2) Farmers’ incomes at first decline relative to others • but then farm incomes catch up • eventually farmer incomes pass nonfarmers’ incomes (3) The number of farmers first rises and then falls • speed depends on both population and income growth • eventually the number of farmers stabilizes Slide 60 More conclusions… • Demographic transition and structural transformation interact, causing a rise & then fall in the number of farmers • Today’s developing countries have had very fast decline in death rates, leading to unprecedented speed of change; • With small shares of the population in nonfarm employment, this led to unprecedented rural population growth and declines in land available per farmer. • The rural effect is compounded by shift in age structure: • first, more children/adult (the “demographic burden”), • then, more child-bearing women (“population momentum”), • then more working-age adults (the “demographic gift”) • These are powerful drivers of change in agriculture and in agricultural policy, but occur slowly and are often ignored! 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