DIỄN ĐÀN KINH TẾ - XÃ HỘI
VIỆT NAM TẠI BOSTON
Vietnam Economic Forum in Boston
Nguyên Tắc Chung
• Mục tiêu chính: Cùng giúp nhau nắm bắt thông tin về
Việt Nam
• Định kỳ: Hàng tháng
• Cấu trúc thảo luận
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Có khách mời hoặc không
2 phần (một chủ đề lớn và các chủ đề nhỏ)
Thảo luận mở về tất cả các vấn đề trên tinh thần xây dựng
Chê hay phê bình vấn đề gì đó thì nên kèm theo giải pháp
• Chủ đề kỳ này: Sức cạnh tranh và triển vọng kinh tế
Việt Nam đến năm 2020
Sức cạnh tranh và Triển vọng
Kinh tế Việt Nam đến 2020
Competitive Ranking by the WEF
• Vietnam ranks 75th/144 this year and switches positions with
the Philippines.
• Over the last two editions, lost 16 places and is now the
second-lowest ranked among eight members of ASEAN.
• The country loses ground in 9 of the 12 pillars of the GCI.
• It ranks below 50th in all of the pillars, and dangerously close
to the 100th position on a majority of them.
• As a sign of its fragility and extreme volatility, Vietnam
plunges 41 places in the macroeconomic environment pillar
to 106th after it had recorded a 20-place gain in the previous
edition.
Competitive Ranking by the WEF (con’t)
• Inflation approached 20 percent in 2011, twice the level of
2010, and the country’s sovereign debt rating worsened.
• In an effort to stem inflation, the State Bank of Vietnam
tightened its monetary policy, thus making access to credit
more difficult.
• Infrastructure (95th), strained by rapid economic growth,
remains a major challenge for the country despite some
improvement in recent years, with particular concerns
about the quality of roads (120th) and ports (113th).
• Public institutions are characterized by rampant corruption
and inefficiencies of all kinds.
Competitive Ranking by the WEF (con’t)
• Respect of property rights (113th) and protection of
intellectual property (123rd) are all insufficient according to
the business community.
• Private institutions suffer from poor ethics and particularly
weak accountability (132nd).
• A few strengths: fairly efficient labor market (51st), large
market size (32nd), and a satisfactory performance in the
public health and basic education pillar (64th).
• Numerous and significant challenges require decisive policy
action in order to put the country’s growth performance on a
more stable footing.
Analysis by Economist Intelligence Unit
• The Communist Party of Vietnam (CPV) will maintain a firm
grip on power in the forecast period.
• There is no prospect of major internal instability, despite
factional splits between conservative hardliners and
reformers.
• The poor performance of the economy in 2011-12 has forced
reformers to concede ground to conservatives.
• Vietnam will continue to make strides in strengthening its ties
with the West, despite intermittent tensions over human
rights issues.
• Relations with China will remain strained over competing
territorial claims in the South China Sea (East Sea).
Analysis by Economist Intelligence Unit
• A subdued global economy exerted a drag on Vietnamese
GDP growth in 2012 and will continue to do so in 2013.
• Subsequently, a more favourable climate will lead to healthy
real GDP growth averaging 6.9% a year in 2014-17.
• Inflation has slowed since mid-2011, and will average 7% in
2013-14 before accelerating to 8.4% on average in 2015-17.
• The ability of the authorities to support economic growth
through monetary policy will be limited by strong price
pressures in 2013-17.
• The current account: surplus in 2012, but deficit in 2013.
• Inflows of foreign direct investment will strengthen in the
forecast period.
Đề án nâng mức tín nhiệm quốc gia
• Đến 2020: Baa3 đối với xếp hạng tín nhiệm của Moody’s
hoặc BBB- đối với xếp hạng tín nhiệm của S&P hoặc Fitch
(Xếp hạng hiện tại B2)
• Tốc độ tăng trưởng GDP bình quân 7 - 8%/năm trong giai
đoạn 2011-2020.
• Đến năm 2020 GDP theo giá so sánh bằng khoảng 2,2 lần so
với năm 2010 và GDP bình quân đầu người theo giá thực tế
~ 3.000 USD.
• Tỷ lệ bội chi ngân sách nhà nước < 4,5% GDP vào năm 2015
và khoảng 4% GDP trong giai đoạn 2016-2020.
• Nợ công < 65% GDP, trong đó dư nợ Chính phủ <55% GDP;
nợ nước ngoài của quốc gia <50% GDP.
Discussions