SPECIAL PROGRAMME FOR THE ECONOMIES OF CENTRAL ASIA
(SPECA)
Project Working Group on Trade (Fourth session)
Aid for Trade (AfT) Needs
Assessment
Jacek Cukrowski
Economic Development and Poverty
Reduction Advisor,
UNDP, Europe and the CIS
Bratislava Regional Centre
Geneva, Switzerland, 26 October 2009
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Outline

Objectives of AfT Needs Assessments

Main focus and message

The Guide

Proposed structure

Current work on Aft Needs Assessments in
Europe and the CIS
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Objectives
Why Trade Needs Assessments?
Identify a set of policy recommendations and
technical assistance needs aimed at improving the
contribution of trade to human development
 Identify and overcome existing barriers to trade
 Identify the cost of adjusting to current or anticipated trade agreements
/ trade shocks
 Review country competitiveness and export performance
 Assess the impact of trade on poverty and human development
 Tackle institutional and infrastructure capacity limitations
 Suggest action plans to remove bottlenecks and seize opportunities for
the poor
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Main focus
Impact of trade on human
development
 Trade can be a powerful source of economic growth

…but while broadly based economic growth is necessary for human
development, it is not enough
 Human development also requires enlarging people’s
choices and opportunities—especially poor people’s

liberalizing trade does not ensure poverty reduction or human
development, nor does it guarantee immediate economic growth
 The nature of resource allocation and social inclusion are
important determinants of growth leading to poverty
reduction and human development

for women and those participating in the informal sector, especially
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Main messages
Opening trade is key for human
development
It improves economic base
It broadens a range of human choice
… but there could be some short-term human
development risks that needs to be well
understood and countries need to be
prepared
to minimize possible negative
impact of trade
on selected social groups
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Main messages
Trade should be integrated into
national development policy
 Opportunities to use trade to reduce poverty and
promote human development should be identified
 Human development risks related to trade shocks
needs to be understood
 Suitable institutions need to be developed to ensure
multi-stakeholder participation in trade policy design
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Trade and national development
strategies
 If trade is to serve as an engine of economic growth
countries must develop a multidimensional strategy for
trade expansion
 Framed in an appropriate macroeconomic
environment
 Structural and social concerns should be treated equally with
macroeconomic and financial concerns
 Trade reforms should be an integral part of
comprehensive development frameworks
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The Guide
How to Conduct AfT Needs
Assessments
Regional guide
Global guide
http://europeandcis.undp.org/poverty/trade/show/
8BD35D19-F203-1EE9-B08767E3833D66C6
http://www.undp.org/geneva/docs/trade8
AFT%20web.pdf
Contents of the Guide
1. Introduction
2. Trade Mainstreaming
3. Trade and Human Development
4. AfT Needs Assessment: Structure and Process
5. Macroeconomic and Business Environment
6. Trade and Investment Policies
7. Trade Facilitation and Standards
8. Sectoral Analysis
9. Trade Policies: An Impact Assessment
10. Final Remarks, Action Matrix and Launching the
Study
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Proposed structure of AfT Needs
Assessments
(I) Introduction
…. short country background, key analytical questions…
(II) Macroeconomic and business environment
… macroeconomic background (related to poverty, human development, trade and
competitiveness)
(III) Trade and investment policy
… policies and trade and investment dynamics, institutions, trade agreements and market access
(WTO accession; trade negotiation strategy…)
(IV) Trade facilitation
… customs procedures, transportation costs, red tapes and other behind-the-border barriers to
trade… underlying causes of inefficiency
(V) Sectoral analysis
… sectors where trade has the biggest an impact on poverty reduction and human development
(VI) Trade policy impact assessment (optional)
… impact of trade policy options on poor
(VII) Conclusions and action matrix
… Recommendations in the form of an Action Matrix. Highlight capacity gaps and propose
actions and technical assistance projects to overcome weaknesses….
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Action Matrix
 Action recommended
 Desired outcome and target indicator
 Timeline for completion of action
 Agencies involved
 Required resources
 Required donor support
Important issues:
• Action priorities
• Matching with trade related technical assistance
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Current work on AfT Needs
Assessments in Europe and the CIS
 UNDP regional project: Wider Europe: AfT for Central
Asia, South Caucasus and Western CIS (2009-2010)
 Project financed by the Government of Finland
 Component I: AfT in Central Asia: Identification of National
and Regional Priorities
 Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan
– initiated (Uzbekistan –planned)
 AfT Road Map for SPECA Countries (Ministerial Conference
planned for 2010)

Component III: AfT Needs Assessments in South Caucasus
and Western CIS (planned for 2010)
 Armenia, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova, Ukraine
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Thank you…

Jacek.Cukrowski@undp.org

UNDP Europe and the CIS Bratislava Regional Centre

http://europeandcis.undp.org
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