Statistics for Public Policy Forum
6 November 2015
1
The changing UK population
Neil Park
Neil.Park@ons.gov.uk
2
Structure
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
The UK population in 2014
How did we get here?
What will the population be like in the future?
Some implications for policy
Closing thoughts
3
Demographic challenges
• Sustained and continuing population growth
• Uneven population growth
(geographical/age/ethnicity/over time)
• The ageing population – increasing life
expectancy combined with “baby boomers”
leaving working age population
• Life expectancy v healthy life expectancy
• Migration leading to increased population
diversity
4
The UK population in 2014
• Mid-year estimate was 64.6 million
• An increase of 0.8% on 2013 and 2% on
2011, 9.3% on 2001
• Population aged 15 and under = 18.8%
• Population aged 16 to 64
= 63.5%
• Population aged 65+
= 17.6%
• Dependency ratio (dependents/working age)
= 614 per 1000
5
Population by age and sex: now and
historical (UK)
UK, 2014
2001
Population U16
= 20.0%
Population aged 16 to 64 = 64.0%
Population aged 65+
= 15.8%
Dependency ratio
(dependents/working age) = 623 per
1000
90
85
80
75
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
600
600
400
400
Females - 2001
200
0
Males - 2001
200
Males
400
Females
600
Thousands
Source: Mid-year estimates, Office for National Statistics
6
Population by age and sex: now and
historical (UK)
• Cohort comparison
• Estimates for 2001
“aged on” to 2014.
• Shows mortality for
older ages.
• Net international
migration for working
ages
• Births/migration for
those under 12
UK, 2014
Age
90
85
80
75
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
600
600
400
400
Females - 2001
200
0
Males - 2001
200
Males
400
Females
600
Thousands
Source: Mid-year estimates, Office for National Statistics
7
What’s been driving population
growth?
Thousands
Thousands
900
900
800
800
700
700
600
600
500
500
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
-100
0
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
-100
Births
Deaths
Natural change
Source: Office for National Statistics
Immigration
Emigration
Source: Office for National Statistics
Net-migration
8
Natural change/migration interdependence
• International migrants are often young adults
• Young adults are fertile
• Net inflows lead to an increase in births, net
outflows a decrease (potentially).
Thousands
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Uk born mother
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Non UK born mother
2013
2014
9
Ethnic composition of population by
age, England and Wales, 2011
% of age group
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
0 to 4 5 to 9 10 to 15 to 20 to 25 to 30 to 35 to 40 to 45 to 50 to 55 to 60 to 65 to 70 to 75 to 80 to
14
19
24
29
34
39
44
49
54
59
64
69
74
79
84
White-British
Mixed/multiple ethnic group
Black/African/Caribbean/Black British
White-Non British
Asian/Asian British
Other ethnic group
85
and
over
Source: 2011 Census, Office for National Statistics
10
Ethnic composition of population,
England and Wales, 2001
% of age group
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
0 to 4 5 to 9 10 to 15 to 20 to 25 to 30 to 35 to 40 to 45 to 50 to 55 to 60 to 65 to 70 to 75 to 80 to
14
19
24
29
34
39
44
49
54
59
64
69
74
79
84
White-British
Mixed/multiple ethnic group
Black/African/Caribbean/Black British
White-Non British
Asian/Asian British
Other ethnic group
85
and
over
Source: 2001 Census, Office for National Statistics
11
Distribution of ethnic groups across
England and Wales, 2011
Millions
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
North East
North West Yorkshire and
The Humber
East
Midlands
Other ethnic group
Asian/Asian British
White: Other (inc Irish)
Source: 2011 Census, Office for National Statistics
West
Midlands
East
London
South East
South West
Wales
Black/African/Caribbean/Black British
Mixed/multiple ethnic groups
White: British
12
Population change at Local levels
% Population change 2001-2014, local authorities in United Kingdom
50%
40%
North East
North West
Yorkshire and The Humber
30%
East Midlands
West Midlands
East of England
20%
London
South East
South West
Wales
10%
Scotland
Northern Ireland
United Kingdom
0%
-10%
Source: Mid-year estimates, Office for National Statistics
13
How will the population change in the
future?
• Population projections
• Take a base year (2014)
• They are based on assumptions about future
fertility, mortality and net migration derived
from analysis of recent demographic trends.
These assumptions are judged to be the best
that could be made at the time they are
adopted.
• Alternative ‘variant’ projections also
produced, high/low fertility, mortality,
migration.
14
The population: now, in the past and in
the future (UK)
Millions
90
2039, 74.3m
80
70
2014, 64.6m
2001, 59.1m
60
1961, 52.8m
50
40
30
20
10
0
1961
1966
1971
1976
1981
1986
Variant range
1991
1996
2001
2006
Population estimates
2011
2016
2021
2026
Principle projection
Source: Mid-year estimates and 2014 National Population Projections, Office for National Statistics
2031
2036 2039
15
Understanding “uncertainty” in
population projections
Thousands
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
0
5
10
15
20
25
Variant range, 2039
30
35
40
45
50
55
60 65
Age
2014 Population estimate
70
75
80
85
90
95
Principle projection 2039
Source: Mid-year estimates and 2014 National Population Projections, Office for National Statistics
100 105 110 115 120 125
Zero net migration
16
Population by age and sex, now and
projection for 2039
Population 2014
Population 2039
105
100
95
90
85
80
75
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
105
100
95
90
85
80
75
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
600
400
200
Males
0
200
Females
400
600
Thousands
600
400
200
0
Males
200
Females
400
600
Thousands
Source: Mid-year estimates and 2014 National Population Projections, Office for National Statistics
17
Projected population growth (%) for
countries and regions of the UK
30%
London
25%
20%
15%
10%
North East
5%
0%
English regions
Change between 2012 and
England
Wales
Scotland
Northern Ireland
18
Source: Mid-year estimates and 2012 Sub-national Population Projections, Office for National Statistics
UK Population to grow: short term falls
in some age groups
Percentage difference
from 2014
160
137%
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
33%
4%
15%
9%
9%
9%
16%
18%
10%
7%
1%
0
-1%
6%
11%
-3%
-6%
-9%
-20
All
3&4
5 to 11
12 to 15
2020
16 to 17
18 to 21
Working age
SPA
85+
2039
Note: These figures take into account the change in State Pension Age under existing
legislation .
Source: Mid-year estimates and 2014 National Population Projections, Office for National Statistics
19
The ageing population
• Population aged 65+ projected to increase by 58% by
2039
• Population aged 85+ projected to increase by 137%
by 2039
• Population aged 16-64 to increase by 4.8%
• Dependency ratio is increasing.
• Increases in state pension age to mitigate this
• Encouraging older people to remain in work
• Consider the effect of international migration
20
Dependency ratio: change over time
under different scenarios
Dependencyratio
(dependents/working age*1000)
800
700
1982: 659
2039: 666
2014: 614
2001: 623
600
2028: 598
500
400
300
200
100
0
1982
1986
1991
1996
2001
2006
2011
High/low mig 65+
Estimates
Principle (67+)
Policy (67 by 2028)
2016
2021
Principle (65+)
2026
2031
2036 2039
Principle (66+)
Principle (68+)
21
Source: Mid-year estimates and 2014 National Population Projections, Office for National Statistics
Life expectancy, increased in the past,
projected to increase further
Life expectancy at birth
100
90
80
2039,84m, 87f
2014, 79m, 83f
70
1980-2, 71m, 77f
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1980-1982
1985-1987
1990-1992
1995-1997
Males
2000-2002
Females
2005-2007
2010-2012
Males (projected)
2017
2022
2027
2032
2037
Females (projected)
22
Source: Office for National Statistics
Life expectancy and healthy life
expectancy (at birth), 2009-11
HLE as proportion
of LE (%)
United Kingdom
66.1
16.3
80.2
Great Britain
66.2
16.2
80.3
England
66.4
16.3
80.3
Wales
65.3
16.7
79.6
Scotland
65.4
15.3
81.1
Northern Ireland
61.9
United Kingdom
64.2
14.2
81.9
Great Britain
64.4
14.1
82.1
England
64.7
14.0
82.2
Wales
63.2
Scotland
61.6
Northern Ireland
58.6
Females
Males
0
19.9
75.7
14.6
81.2
14.6
80.8
18.8
10
20
30
40
50
Life expectancy in years
Years in good health
60
75.7
70
80
90
Years not in good health
23
Source: Office for National Statistics
Healthy life expectancy at a local level
• Healthy life expectancy below SPA across most of
the country for males, 2011-2013
Age 80
70
Upper tier Local
authorities in
North East
60
North West
50
Yorkshire and The
Humber
East Midlands
West Midlands
40
East
London
30
South East
South West
SPA (65)
20
10
24
0
Change in population, households and
dwellings
Annual change
Thousands
England, change over time, 2001-2037
500
450
400
350
300
250
population
households
200
dwelling stock
150
100
50
2001-02
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
2015-16
2016-17
2017-18
2018-19
2019-20
2020-21
2021-22
2022-23
2023-24
2024-25
2025-26
2026-27
2027-28
2028-29
2029-30
2030-31
2031-32
2032-33
2033-34
2034-35
2035-36
2036-37
0
Note: dashed lines are projections
Source: Mid-year estimates and National Population Projections, Office for National Statistics; Household
estimates and projections & Dwelling stock, Department for Communities and local government
25
Coherence between Population and
dwelling stock change, 2001-2014
Change in population
25%
(%)
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
0%
-5%
Change 2001-2008
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Change in dwellings (%)
Change 2009-2014
London 2009-2014
Linear (Pop growth=Dwelling growth)
Source: Mid-year estimates, Office for National Statistics; Dwelling stock, Department for Communities and local
government
26
Demographic challenges
• Sustained and continuing population growth
• Uneven population growth
(geographical/age/ethnicity/over time)
• The ageing population – increasing life
expectancy combined with “baby boomers”
leaving working age population
• Life expectancy v healthy life expectancy
• Migration leading to increased population
diversity
27
Questions
• Thank you
28
International migration: A closer look
Paul Vickers
Head of Population Outputs
Office for National Statistics
6 November 2015
29
International migration time-series
Source: ONS, Long-Term International Migration and International Passenger Survey
30
International migration time-series
31
Who is immigrating to the UK?
For every 100 immigrants to the UK...
14 are British citizens
20 are ‘EU15’ citizens (e.g. France, Spain, Italy, Germany)
12 are ‘EU8’ citizens (e.g. Poland)
9 are Romanian or Bulgarian
44 are citizens from outside the EU
International Passenger Survey, provisional estimates year ending March 2015
32
Immigration by citizenship
Source: ONS, Long-Term International Migration
33
Main reason for immigration
Per cent
100
90
80
70
60
Other
50
Accompany/Join
40
Formal study
Work related
30
20
10
0
YE Jun 05
YE Mar 15p
Total
Source: ONS, Long-Term International Migration
YE Jun 05
YE Mar 15p
Non -EU
YE Jun 05
YE Mar 15p
EU
34
Political and public agenda
• Reduce net migration to tens of thousands
• Majority of EU citizens immigrate for work
• Over half of non-EU citizens immigrate for study
• Can only be controlled by restrictions for non-EU
citizens
• EU referendum
• Depending on the outcome could allow more
restrictions for migration
35
Impact of international migration 1
• Labour market
• International students
• Population growth e.g.:
• Housing
• Transport
• Local areas are affected differently
• Economic performance
36
Labour market:
Definite job or looking for work by citizenship
Source: ONS, International Passenger Survey
37
Labour market:
Work-related immigration by previous occupation
Professional & Managerial
Per cent
Manual & Clerical
Other
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
EU
Non-EU
EU
2010
Source: ONS, International Passenger Survey
Non-EU
2011
EU
Non-EU
2012
EU
Non-EU
2013
EU
Non-EU
2014
38
Labour market:
Skilled work visa applications by industry sector
Source: Home Office, Immigration Statistics
39
Labour market:
Workers in different industry groups by nationality
Thousands
The nationality of workers in employment in the UK by industry sector, 2007 and 2014
2007
2014
UK Nationals
EU15
EU8 & EU2
Non-EU
UK Nationals
EU15
EU8 & EU2
Non-EU
Agriculture
286
3
5
2
346
4
17
3
Energy & Water
451
6
5
14
497
7
14
19
Manufacturing
3,276
58
103
105
2,631
56
189
79
Construction
Distribution, hotels &
restaurants
2,415
35
55
49
1,999
32
112
50
4,974
93
107
271
4,976
145
270
266
Transport & communication
2,525
49
39
128
2,342
71
96
139
Banking & finance
Public admin, education &
health
3,924
111
48
214
4,553
171
128
217
7,745
137
38
328
8,439
202
109
329
Other services
1,445
30
24
61
1,583
44
45
70
27,041
523
425
1,171
27,365
732
980
1,172
Industry sector
Total
Source: Annual Population Survey
40
Labour market: Workers in different industry
groups by nationality, 2014
UK Nationals1
Non-UK Nationals2
Agriculture, foresty and fisihng
346
24
Mining and quarrying
127
16
2,631
324
Electricity, gas, air cond supply
171
12
Water supply, sewerage, waste
198
13
Construction
1,999
194
Wholesale, retail, repair of vehicles
3,707
354
Transport & storage
1,299
170
Accommodation and food services
1,269
327
Information and communication
1,043
136
Financial and insurance activities
1,079
114
319
18
Prof, scientific, technical activities
1,942
199
Admin and support services
1.212
185
Public admin and defence
1,782
70
Education
2,971
207
Health and social work
3,685
362
Arts, entertainment and recreation
745
60
Other service activities
751
70
Households as employers
54
19
Extraterritorial organisations
33
10
27,365
2,883
Industry sector
Manufacturing
Real estate activities
Source: Annual Population Survey
Total
41
International students:
Contribution to the UK economy
• Latest HESA data shows 19% of students are
non-UK nationals (non-EU 14% & EU 5%)
• Flows of international students show:
• 188,000 people immigrated to the UK for study
in YE March 2015
• Of these 72% were non-EU citizens
42
International students:
Immigration for study by institution
Source: Home Office, Immigration Statistics
43
International students: UK Population,
short term falls in some age groups
Percentage difference
from 2014
160
137%
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
33%
4%
15%
9%
9%
9%
16%
18%
10%
7%
1%
0
-1%
6%
11%
-3%
-6%
-9%
-20
All
3&4
5 to 11
12 to 15
2020
16 to 17
18 to 21
Working age
SPA
85+
2039
Note: These figures take into account the change in State Pension Age under existing
legislation .
Source: Mid-year estimates and 2014 National Population Projections, Office for National Statistics
44
Population growth:
The effect of net migration, UK, 2039
45
Impact of international migration is regional
46
Economic performance:
Impact on emigration
Source: ONS, Long-Term International Migration
47
Impact of international migration 2
• Impact on services e.g.:
• schools
• health
• benefits
• Economic impact e.g.:
• economic growth
• tax receipts for public services
• local and national
48
Challenges
• Improving the evidence base to improve
knowledge of impact:
• Administrative data source
• Migrant survey
• Improve communication of latest statistics for
policy makers
49
Discussion
• Policy impacts of international migration
• Understanding what policy makers
questions are
• Engaging with policy makers
50
Population statistics for the future
Better Statistics, Better Decisions
Sarah Crofts
Making
better
use of
existing
data
The
future of
populatio
n
statistics
Improvin
g data to
‘fill the
gaps’
Better
statistics
Better
decisions
Where are we now?
Analysis
53
What we want : Better decisions
• Our strategy is to be more helpful to provide
statistics and analysis to inform policy
decisions
• We meet regularly with analysts in
government departments, but we could do
more
• There are gaps in understanding on the
effects of population change on the economy,
housing, demand for local services and social
cohesion
Examples of policy area questions
Elderly –
hospital / care
needs
Childcare
Housing
Jobs and
employment
Older Workers
Schools
Jobs for young
people /
university /
apprenticeships
Economic impact of
migrants and
international students
What we want: Better statistics
• More frequent, cheaper and improved
statistics can provide better information for
policy – means better decisions
• Dependent upon
Good understanding of requirements, including
policy need
Access to administrative data
Developments in administrative data to ensure it is
fit for statistical purposes
Example - the contribution of migration
to the changing population
Lighter shade is net
migration component of
population change
• Currently based on the International Passenger
Survey – provides good national level estimates, but
there are gaps:
Local level migration analysis difficult
Based on intentions to migrate
Illegal migration (non-EU not leaving when visas expire)
• Administrative data can help to fill these gaps
Examples of administrative data to
better understand migration
• New HO exit check data – still under
development
• DWP and HMRC data can be used to identify
economically active migrants. Can also
identify economic benefits of migration.
• Higher Education Statistics Agency data
could provide more information on student
migration
• NHS data
58
How do we get there?
• Ideally, data sources would be linked together
• For example, New Zealand has launched its
‘Integrated Data Infrastructure’ (means
bringing data sources together in one place)
Health
Families
Education
Migration
Households
Crime
Welfare
Statistics
NZ Surveys
Census
since 1981
Tax
Employment
‘Super File’
The journey
• Getting access to data is not easy. Better
access to data sources would mean more
efficient, better statistics
• Administrative systems not set up for
statistical purposes, for example
- Different definitions
- Linking can be difficult
- Timing issues
And when we are there?
• Frequent, high quality data will be available to
support decision making in key policy areas,
such as housing, education, migration and
health
• People come to ONS first for data and
analysis on population statistics
• Existing data sources are improved for
statistical purposes
• New data sources would be set up with
statistical benefits in mind
New outputs
Better
accessibility
Making
better
use of
existing
data
The
future of
populatio
n
statistics
More analysis
Improvin
g data to
‘fill the
gaps’
Better
statistics
Better
decisions
Understanding
requirements
Accessing
new data
Developing
data
sources
Questions for the forum
What are the big questions that ONS population
statistics will need to answer?
Now?
In the near future?
In the Longer term?