Presenting large scale forecast results
in an intuitive way
An industry case study.
David Edison
Moore Stephens Consulting Limited
• Part of Moore Stephens LLP:
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Founded in London in 1907
Specialist expertise in Business Intelligence and forecasting
19,300 staff in 621 locations in 95 countries
Global turnover last year $1,844M
Part of Moore Stephens International, offering accounting and
consulting services to all industries in all locations
– Microsoft Gold Partner
– Ten years of modelling using @RISK
www.bintelligent.co.uk
bintelligent@moorestephens.com
General Forecasting Issues
• Presenting statistics to people who don’t understand
statistics
• Providing all projection results, rather than just the
selected few
• Single-use datasets and models
www.bintelligent.co.uk
bintelligent@moorestephens.com
Project Overview
• Major tobacco manufacturer
• Projection of manufacturer and competitor sales
• Automated, low level forecasting system
• Facility for ad hoc forecasting
• Integration with existing IT systems
• NOT a ‘black box’
www.bintelligent.co.uk
bintelligent@moorestephens.com
Forecast Requirements
• Forecasts to be made monthly, automatically
• For next 60 days, 24 months, 5 years
• For each of 50+ geographical regions
• For each of 300+ tobacco products
• i.e. over 1 Million variables forecast each month
• Generic model, indicating confidence in results
www.bintelligent.co.uk
bintelligent@moorestephens.com
User Interaction
• NOT a ‘black box’ – models to be built in Excel
• Users to be able to see and influence models
• Ability to add subjective assumptions and influence
results
• Users to be able to experiment (ad hoc modelling)
• @RISK is optimal solution
www.bintelligent.co.uk
bintelligent@moorestephens.com
Data Sourcing
• Objective forecasts driven by past data
• Automatically sourced from existing systems (cubes)
• Explanatory variables investigated included:
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Various economic data
Tourism
Price: absolute and relative to market average
Various time data / day of the week / month of the year
Days until next / since previous trading day
Promotions, marketing campaign data
www.bintelligent.co.uk
bintelligent@moorestephens.com
Specific modelling functionality
• Allow users to enter explanatory variable assumptions
• Allow selected historic data to be ignored
• Make anticipated proportional adjustments
• Enter expected ultimate results
• Apply subjective weightings throughout, effectively
allowing for anywhere from fully objective to fully
subjective forecasting
• All at the very lowest level
• Switching of variables
www.bintelligent.co.uk
bintelligent@moorestephens.com
Proof of Forecasting Concept
• Generic forecasting required to be more accurate than
existing, manual forecasts
• Model proven using multiple regression analysis
(StatTools)
• Blind forecasts retrospectively made on 100 key datasets:
an average of half the error term of previous projections =
project approval
• Agreed that @RISK was best and only tool for forecasts
• All controlled by Excel, @RISK and StatTools VBA
www.bintelligent.co.uk
bintelligent@moorestephens.com
Presentation of Results
• Did not just want a lever arch file or series of Excel
spreadsheets
• Specific high level key exhibits required (Excel)
• Flexible, freestyle analysis required, both of past and
forecast data (Business Intelligence)
• What IS Business Intelligence?
www.bintelligent.co.uk
bintelligent@moorestephens.com
What is Business Intelligence?
“The ability to easily report, analyse, interrogate and manipulate any
aspect of your business performance, when you want, how you want,
where you want, irrespective of underlying systems technology”
Data In Your Existing Systems
Before Business Intelligence
www.bintelligent.co.uk
Data presented in your BI system
After Business Intelligence
bintelligent@moorestephens.com
Sourcing of Data / Return of Results
• Business Intelligence
• Cubes (automated direct querying)
• ProClarity (briefing books)
www.bintelligent.co.uk
bintelligent@moorestephens.com
Business Intelligence:
Additional Functionality
• Fully web deployable
• Integrates fully with IT environment
• Not an IT tool – it’s for business performance, from
analysts to executives
• Fits any business model
• One version of the truth
• Provides the speed and agility to make the difference
www.bintelligent.co.uk
bintelligent@moorestephens.com
What could we have done differently and why
did it work?
• RDK
• @RISK & StatTools – a powerful, flexible combination
• Users have complete control over assumptions and
understand the models
• Users are able to experiment with the ad hoc model,
meaning they understand the impact their assumptions
will have on the automated system
www.bintelligent.co.uk
bintelligent@moorestephens.com
Questions?
David Edison
david.edison@moorestephens.com
+44 (0)20 7334 9191