Watch in slide show mode to observe (modest) animation. comments questions: dan.kahan@yale.edu papers, etc: www.culturalcognition.net www.culturalcognition.net Climate Science Communication and the Disentanglement Principle Dan M. Kahan Yale University & many others Research Supported by: National Science Foundation, SES-0922714 Annenberg Center for Public Policy Skoll Global Threats Fund What can the science of science communication do for climate communicators? What can the science of science communication do for climate communicators? Everything I know about climate science communication: What can the science of science communication do for climate communicators? Everything I know about climate science communication: What ordinary members of the public “believe” about climate change doesn’t reflect what they know; it expresses who they are. What can the science of science communication do for climate communicators? Everything I know about climate science communication: What ordinary members of the public “believe” about climate change doesn’t reflect what they know; it expresses who they are. What can the science of science communication do for climate communicators? Everything I know about climate science communication: What ordinary members of the public “believe” about climate change doesn’t reflect what they know; it expresses who they are. “Belief” in evolution Science literacy: item response functions “Which gas makes up most of the Earth's atmosphere?” [Hydrogen, Nitrogen, Carbon Dioxide, Oxygen] -2 -2.5 1st percentile 00 00 probability of correct answer answer correct .1 .2 .6 .1 probability .2 .3 .3 .4 .4 of.5 .5 .6 .7 .7 .8 .8 .9 .9 .1 .2 .2 .3 .3 .4 .4 .5 .5 .6 .6 .7 .7 .8 .8 .9 .9 .1 11 11 “Electrons are smaller than atoms.” (True/false) -1 -1 14th percentile 0 50th percentile 1 1 percentile 86th Science literacy score 2 2.5 99th percentile -2 -2.5 1st percentile -1 -1 14th percentile 0 50th percentile 1 1 percentile 86th 2 2.5 99th percentile Science literacy score Annenberg Center for Public Policy & Cultural Cognition Project. N = 1999. Nationally representative sample, April/May 2014 (YouGov). Predicted probabilities derived via Monte Carlo Simulation based on logistic regression. Colored bars reflect 0.95 confidence intervals. Source: Kahan, D. The Science Communication Measurement Problem, Adv. in Pol. Psych. (in press). Science literacy: item response functions answer correct .1 .2 .6 .1 probability .2 .3 .3 .4 .4 of.5 .5 .6 .7 .7 .8 .8 .9 .9 .9 .2 .3 .4 .5 .6 .7 .8 probability of correct answer 00 0 .1 -2 -2.5 1st percentile “Which gas makes up most of the Earth's atmosphere?” [Hydrogen, Nitrogen, Carbon Dioxide, Oxygen] 11 1 “Human beings, as we know them today, developed from earlier species of animals.” (True/false) -1 -1 14th percentile 00 50th percentile 1 86th1 percentile Science literacy score 2 2.5 99th percentile -2 -2.5 1st percentile -1 -1 14th percentile 0 50th percentile 1 1 percentile 86th 2 2.5 99th percentile Science literacy score Annenberg Center for Public Policy & Cultural Cognition Project. N’s 1011 & 1999. Nationally representative sample, April/May 2014 (YouGov). Predicted probabilities derived via Monte Carlo Simulation based on logistic regression. Colored bars reflect 0.95 confidence intervals. Source: Kahan, D. The Science Communication Measurement Problem, Adv. in Pol. Psych. (in press). Science literacy: item response functions 11 .5 .3 .4 .2 Above avg. religiosity -2 -2.5 1st percentile 00 0 .1 “Which gas makes up most of the Earth's atmosphere?” [Hydrogen, Nitrogen, Carbon Dioxide, Oxygen] answer correct .1 .2 .6 .1 probability .2 .3 .3 .4 .4 of.5 .5 .6 .7 .7 .8 .8 .9 .9 Below avg. religiosity .6 .7 .8 probability of correct answer .9 1 “Human beings, as we know them today, developed from earlier species of animals.” (True/false) -1 -1 14th percentile 0 50th percentile 1 1 percentile 86th Science literacy score 2 2.5 99th percentile -2 -2.5 1st percentile -1 -1 14th percentile 0 50th percentile 1 1 percentile 86th 2 2.5 99th percentile Science literacy score Annenberg Center for Public Policy & Cultural Cognition Project. N’s 1011 & 1999. Nationally representative sample, April/May 2014 (YouGov). Predicted probabilities derived via Monte Carlo Simulation based on logistic regression. Colored bars reflect 0.95 confidence intervals. Source: Kahan, D. The Science Communication Measurement Problem, Adv. in Pol. Psych. (in press). Science literacy: item response functions 1 .5 .3 .4 .2 Above avg. religiosity -2 -2.5 1st percentile Above avg. Below avg. religiosity religiosity Below avg. Above avg. religiosity religiosity 0 0 .1 “Which gas makes up most of the Earth's atmosphere?” [Hydrogen, Nitrogen, Carbon Dioxide, Oxygen] answer correct .1 probability .2 .3 .4 of.5 .6 .7 .8 .9 Below avg. religiosity .6 .7 .8 probability of correct answer .9 1 “Human beings, as we know them today, developed from earlier species of animals.” (True/false) -1 -1 14th percentile 0 50th percentile 1 1 percentile 86th Science literacy score 2 2.5 99th percentile -2 -2.5 1st percentile -1 -1 14th percentile 0 50th percentile 1 1 percentile 86th 2 99th 2.5 percentile Science literacy score Annenberg Center for Public Policy & Cultural Cognition Project. N’s 1011 & 1999. Nationally representative sample, April/May 2014 (YouGov). Predicted probabilities derived via Monte Carlo Simulation based on logistic regression. Colored bars reflect 0.95 confidence intervals. Source: Kahan, D. The Science Communication Measurement Problem, Adv. in Pol. Psych. (in press). Science literacy: item response functions 1 .5 .3 .4 .2 Above avg. religiosity -2 -2.5 1st percentile Below avg. religiosity Above avg. religiosity 0 0 .1 “Electrons are smaller than atoms.” (True/false) answer correct .1 probability .2 .3 .4 of.5 .6 .7 .8 .9 Below avg. religiosity .6 .7 .8 probability of correct answer .9 1 “Human beings, as we know them today, developed from earlier species of animals.” (True/false) -1 -1 14th percentile 0 50th percentile 1 1 percentile 86th Science literacy score 2 2.5 99th percentile -2 1st percentile -1 14th percentile 0 50th percentile 1 86th percentile 2 99th percentile Science literacy score Annenberg Center for Public Policy & Cultural Cognition Project. N’s 1011 & 1999. Nationally representative sample, April/May 2014 (YouGov). Predicted probabilities derived via Monte Carlo Simulation based on logistic regression. Colored bars reflect 0.95 confidence intervals. Source: Kahan, D. The Science Communication Measurement Problem, Adv. in Pol. Psych. (in press). Science literacy: item response functions “Electrons are smaller than atoms.” (True/false) .9 1 1 1 “According to the theory of evolution, human beings, as we know them today, developed from earlier species of animals.” (True/false) .8 .9 Below avg. religiosity Above avg. religiosity .6 .7 .2 .1 .3 .2 .4 .3 .5 .4 .6 .5 .7 .6 .8 .7 .9 .8 probability of correct answer Below avg. religiosity 0 .1 0 .1 .2 .3 .4 .5 Above avg. religiosity 0 -2 1st percentile -2.5 -1 14th percentile -1 0 50th percentile 1 86th percentile 1 Science literacy score 2 99th percentile 2.5 -2 1st percentile -1 14th percentile 0 50th percentile 1 86th percentile 2 99th percentile Science literacy score Annenberg Center for Public Policy & Cultural Cognition Project. N’s 1011 & 1999. Nationally representative sample, April/May 2014 (YouGov). Predicted probabilities derived via Monte Carlo Simulation based on logistic regression. Colored bars reflect 0.95 confidence intervals. Source: Kahan, D. The Science Communication Measurement Problem, Adv. in Pol. Psych. (in press). Teaching evolution to “nonbelievers” “Belief” in global warming “Belief” in global warming 0 .1 .2 .4 .5 .6 .7 .8 .9 global warming risk .3 1 “Belief” in global warming -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 global warming risk “Belief” in global warming global warming risk “Belief” in global warming Science literacy: item response functions 1 “According to the theory of evolution, human beings, as we know them today, developed from earlier species of animals.” (True/false) correct .1 probability .2 .3 .4 of.5 .6 answer .7 .8 .9 Below avg. religiosity Above avg. religiosity -2-2 1st percentile Below avg. religiosity Above avg. religiosity 0 0 0 answer .9 of correct probability .1 .1 .2 .2 .3 .3 .4 .4 .5 .5 .6 .6 .7 .7 .8 .8 .9 1 1 “Human beings, as we know them today, developed from earlier species of animals.” (True/false) -1-1 14th percentile 00 50th percentile 11 86th percentile Science literacy score 22 99th percentile -2 1st percentile -1 14th percentile 00 50th percentile 11 86th percentile 22 99th percentile Science literacy score Annenberg Center for Public Policy & Cultural Cognition Project. N’s 1011 & 1999. Nationally representative sample, April/May 2014 (YouGov). Predicted probabilities derived via Monte Carlo Simulation based on logistic regression. Colored bars reflect 0.95 confidence intervals. Source: Kahan, D. The Science Communication Measurement Problem, Adv. in Pol. Psych. (in press). “Climate science literacy” battery Kahan, D. The Science Communication Measurement Problem, Adv. in Pol. Psych. (in press) “Ordinary climate science intelligence” item response curves “Climate scientists believe that the increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide associated with the burning of fossil fuels will reduce photosynthesis by plants.” [True or False] 1 of correct answer probability .1 .2 .3 .4 .5 .6 .7 .8 .9 .8 .7 .6 .5 .4 .3 .2 -1 -.5 0 .5 1 1.5 0 2 -2 -1 -.5 0 .5 1 1.5 2 -2 -1 -.5 0 .5 1 1.5 2 -1 -.5 0 .5 1 1.5 -2 2 0 .5 1 1.5 2 2 -1.5 -1 -.5 0 .5 1 1.5 2 1 .1 .2 .3 .4 .5 .6 .7 .8 .9 probability of correct answer 0 0 -.5 1.5 “Climate scientists believe that globally averaged surface air temperatures were higher for the first decade of the twentyfirst century (2000-2009) than for the last decade of the twentieth century (1990-1999) [True or false] 1 of correct answer probability .1 .2 .3 .4 .5 .6 .7 .8 .9 1 .9 .8 .7 .6 .5 .4 .3 -1 Ordinary climate science intellience 1 Ordinary climate science intellience “Climate scientists believe that here will be positive as well as negative effects from human-caused global warming.” [True or false] .2 -1.5 .5 1 -1.5 Ordinary climate science intellience .1 -2 0 of correct answer probability .1 .2 .3 .4 .5 .6 .7 .8 .9 -2 Ordinary climate science intellience “Climate scientists believe that nuclear power generation contributes to global warming” [True or false] -.5 0 of correct answer probability .1 .2 .3 .4 .5 .6 .7 .8 .9 0 0 -1.5 -1 “Climate scientists believe that human-caused global warming has increased the number and severity of hurricanes around the world in recent decades.” [True or false] 1 1 .9 .8 .7 .6 .5 .4 .3 .2 .1 -2 -1.5 Ordinary climate science intellience “Climate scientists believe that if the North Pole icecap melted as a result of human-caused global warming, global sea levels would rise.” [True or False] “Climate scientists believe that human-caused global warming will result in flooding of many coastal regions .” [True or False] probability of correct answer -1.5 Ordinary climate science intellience Ordinary climate science intellience -2 -1.5 -1 -.5 0 .5 1 1.5 Ordinary climate science intellience 2 0 -1.5 0 .1 -2 probability of correct answer “Climate scientists believe that human-caused global warming will increase the risk of skin cancer in human beings.” [True or False] 1 .9 probability of correct answer .9 .8 .7 .6 .5 .4 .3 .2 .1 0 probability of correct answer 1 “What gas do most scientists believe causes temperatures in the atmosphere to rise? Is it [hydrogen, helium, carbon dioxide, radon]?” -2 -1.5 -1 -.5 0 .5 1 1.5 Ordinary climate science intellience Figures plot the predicted probability of correctly responding to the item conditional on score on OCSI scale. Black bars 2 Climate science literacy: item response functions “Climate scientists believe that the increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide associated with the burning of fossil fuels will reduce photosynthesis by plants.” [True or False] 0 0 0 .1 .2 .3 .4 .5 .6 .7 .8 probability of correct answer .1 probability .2 .3 .4 .5correct .6 .7 .8 .9 .1 .2 .3 .4 of .5 .6 answer .7 .8 .9 .9 1 1 1 “What gas do most scientists believe causes temperatures in the atmosphere to rise? Is it [hydrogen, helium, carbon dioxide, radon]?” -2 1st percentile -1 14th percentile 0 50th percentile 1 86th percentile Climate science literacy score 2 99th percentile -2-2 1st percentile -1 14th -1 percentile 00 50th percentile 11 86th percentile 22 99th percentile Climate science literacy score Annenberg Center for Public Policy & Cultural Cognition Project. N = 1,769. Predicted probabilities derived via Monte Carlo Simulation based on logistic regression. Nationally representative sample, April/May 2014 (YouGov). Political outlook predictor set at -1 SD & + 1 SD on “Left_right" scale for “liberal democrat” and “conservative Republican,” respectively. Colored bars reflect 0.95 confidence intervals. Source: Kahan, D. The Science Communication Measurement Problem, Adv. in Pol. Psych. (in press). Climate science literacy: item response functions “Climate scientists believe that the increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide associated with the burning of fossil fuels will reduce photosynthesis by plants.” [True or False] 1 1 “What gas do most scientists believe causes temperatures in the atmosphere to rise? Is it [hydrogen, helium, carbon dioxide, radon]?” Liberal Democrat 0 0 .1 .2 .3 .4 .5 .6 Conservative Republican Conservative Republican correct .1 probability .2 .3 .4 of.5 .6 answer .7 .8 .9 .7 .8 probability of correct answer .9 Liberal Democrat -2 -1 -1.514th percentile -.5 50th percentile 0 .5 86th percentile 1 1.599th percentile 22 1st percentile Climate science literacy score -2 1st percentile -1 -1.514th percentile -.5 50th percentile 0 .5 86th percentile 1 1.599th percentile 2 Climate science literacy score Annenberg Center for Public Policy & Cultural Cognition Project. N = 1,769. Predicted probabilities derived via Monte Carlo Simulation based on logistic regression. Nationally representative sample, April/May 2014 (YouGov). Political outlook predictor set at -1 SD & + 1 SD on “Left_right" scale for “liberal democrat” and “conservative Republican,” respectively. Colored bars reflect 0.95 confidence intervals. Source: Kahan, D. The Science Communication Measurement Problem, Adv. in Pol. Psych. (in press). Climate science literacy & general science literacy 1 86th percentile r = 0.32, p < 0.01 -1 0 50th percentile 14th percentile 1st percentile -2 Climate science literacy 2 99th percentile -2 1st percentile -1 0 50th percentile 14th percentile 1 2 86th percentile 99th percentile science comprehension Science literacy score Annenberg Center for Public Policy & Cultural Cognition Project. N = 2,000. Nationally representative sample, April/May 2014 (YouGov). X-axis is continuous “Ordinary Science Intelligence” scale formed by IRT-weighted responses to NSF & Pew science literacy, Numeracy, and Cognitive Reflection Test items (α=0.83). CIs reflect 095 level of confidence for estimated population mean. Climate science literacy & general science literacy < avg Left_Right > avg Left_Right 1 86th percentile r = 0.32, p < 0.01 -1 0 50th percentile 14th percentile 1st percentile -2 Climate science literacy 2 99th percentile -2 1st percentile -1 0 50th percentile 14th percentile 1 2 86th percentile 99th percentile science comprehension Science literacy score Annenberg Center for Public Policy & Cultural Cognition Project. N = 2,000. Nationally representative sample, April/May 2014 (YouGov). X-axis is continuous “Ordinary Science Intelligence” scale formed by IRT-weighted responses to NSF & Pew science literacy, Numeracy, and Cognitive Reflection Test items (α=0.83). CIs reflect 095 level of confidence for estimated population mean. Positions on global warming 9 8 Pct. Agree Pct. Agree 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Human caused Naturally caused No warming Annenberg Center for Public Policy & Cultural Cognition Project. N = 1957. Nationally representative sample, April/May 2014 (YouGov). X-axis is continuous “Ordinary Science Intelligence” scale formed by IRT-weighted responses to NSF & Pew science literacy, Numeracy, and Cognitive Reflection Test items (α=0.83). CIs reflect 095 level of confidence for estimated population mean. 9 Climate science literacy & positions on global warming 8 7 9 6 8 No. correct 5 7 6 4 59 3 48 2 37 26 1 15 0 04 3 Human caused Naturally caused No warming 2 1 Annenberg Center for Public Policy & Cultural Cognition Project. N = 1957. Nationally representative sample, April/May 2014 (YouGov). X-axis is continuous “Ordinary Science Intelligence” scale formed by IRT-weighted responses to NSF & Pew 0 science literacy, Numeracy, and Cognitive Reflection Test items (α=0.83). CIs reflect 095 level of confidence for estimated population mean. Climate science literacy: item response functions “Climate scientists believe that the increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide associated with the burning of fossil fuels will reduce photosynthesis by plants.” [True or False] .7 .6 1 Liberal Democrat 0 0 .1 .2 .3 .4 .5 Conservative Republican Conservative Republican correct .1 probability .2 .3 .4 of.5 .6 answer .7 .8 .9 Liberal Democrat .8 probability of correct answer .9 1 “What gas do most scientists believe causes temperatures in the atmosphere to rise? Is it [hydrogen, helium, carbon dioxide, radon]?” -2 -1.514th percentile -1 -.5 50th percentile 00 .5 86th percentile 11 1.5 99th percentile 22 1st percentile Climate science literacy score -2 1st percentile -1 -1.514th percentile -.5 50th percentile 0 .5 86th percentile 1 1.599th percentile 2 Climate science literacy score Annenberg Center for Public Policy & Cultural Cognition Project. N = 1,769. Predicted probabilities derived via Monte Carlo Simulation based on logistic regression. Nationally representative sample, April/May 2014 (YouGov). Political outlook predictor set at -1 SD & + 1 SD on “Left_right" scale for “liberal democrat” and “conservative Republican,” respectively. Colored bars reflect 0.95 confidence intervals. Climate science literacy: item response functions .7 1 Conservative Republican Liberal Democrat Conservative Republican 0 0 .1 .2 .3 .4 .5 .6 There is “solid evidence” of global warming due to “human activity such as burning fossil fuels” [agree, disagree] correct .1 probability .2 .3 .4 of.5 .6 answer .7 .8 .9 Liberal Democrat .8 probability of correct answer .9 1 “What gas do most scientists believe causes temperatures in the atmosphere to rise? Is it [hydrogen, helium, carbon dioxide, radon]?” -2 -1.514th percentile -1 -.5 50th percentile 00 .5 86th percentile 11 1.5 99th percentile 22 1st percentile -2 -1 0 .5 86th percentile 1 1.599th percentile 2 1st percentile -1.514th percentile-.5 50th percentile Climate science literacy score Climate science literacy score Annenberg Center for Public Policy & Cultural Cognition Project. N = 1,769. Predicted probabilities derived via Monte Carlo Simulation based on logistic regression. Nationally representative sample, April/May 2014 (YouGov). Political outlook predictor set at -1 SD & + 1 SD on “Left_right" scale for “liberal democrat” and “conservative Republican,” respectively. Colored bars reflect 0.95 confidence intervals. Teaching evolution to “nonbelievers” Teaching evolution to “nonbelievers” “97% consesnsus” social marketing campaign Disentanglement principle: Disentanglement principle: “Don’t make reasoning, free people choose between Disentanglement principle: “Don’t make reasoning, free people choose between knowing what’s known & being who they are!” Disentanglement principle: Soute “Don’t make reasoning, free people choose between knowing what’s known & being who they are!” “How much risk do you believe global warming poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?” 7 A polluted science communication environment . . . 7 100% 5 67 Extremely high risk 6 United States as a whole (summer 2013) 56 < avg. Left_right 75% 7 3 Between moderate and high 45 4 High 2 23 Low 1 Between low and moderate 12 6 34 Moderate 50% 25% “How muchone risk. do An unpolluted . . you Very low 11 None at all 0 01 3 6 3 9 9 4 5 12 12 6 15 7 15 8 18 9 18 21 21 7 7 5 5 Moderate 6 0 Between low and moderate 3 6 Low 9 12 15 3 3 0 7 Between moderate and high 4 4 1 5 5 4 4 33 r = 0.07, p < 0.01 00 Low 6 6 6 Extremely high risk r = - 0.65, p < 0.01 22 Between low and moderate 2 18 21 < avg. Left_right no risk at all Liberal Democrat Left_right 11 Conservative Republican 1.6 1.61.6 Very Conservative Strong Republican Extremely high risk 1 1 00 Moderate Independent 4 -1 -1 3 -1.6 Very low None at all 0 0 5 > avg. Left_right Very liberal Strong Democrat 10 Extremely high risk Science Comprehension high risk “How much risk do you believe medical x-rays poses to human believe globalhealth, warming to human health, safety, safety, poses or prosperity?” High Moderate 1 2 2 6 6 0 Extremely No warming 2 7 7 High 3 Southeast Florida (Fall 2013) or prosperity?” Between moderate and high 0 0 3 health, safety, or prosperity?” 4 no risk Human caused Naturally caused noat risk all “How much risk do you at believe fluoridated water poses to human all 0 5 None at all 0% Extremely high risk > avg. Left_right 4 SE Fla. Counties Very low 00 33 66 99 12 12 15 15 Science Comprehension 18 18 21 21 11 4 SE Fla. Counties “Landuse planners should identify assess and revise existing laws to assure that they reflect the risks posed by rising sea level and extreme weather.” “Local and state officials should be involved in identifying steps that local communities can take to reduce the risk posed by rising sea levels.” pct. agree pct. agree > avg. Left_right 78% agree Kahan, D. The Science Communication Measurement Problem, Adv. in Pol. Psych. (in press) Disentanglement principle: Soute “Don’t make reasoning, free people choose between knowing what’s known & being who they are!” Disentanglement principle: “Don’t make reasoning, free people choose between knowing what’s known & being who they are!” Disentanglement principle: “Don’t make reasoning, free people choose between knowing what’s known & being who they are!” Disentanglement principle: “Don’t make reasoning, free people choose between knowing what’s known & being who they are!” Southeast Florida science communication Not “us vs. them” just us—using what we know Disentanglement principle: “Don’t make reasoning, free people choose between knowing what’s known & being who they are!” Southeast Florida science communication Not “us vs. them” just us—using what we know What can the science of science communication do for climate communicators? Everything I know about climate science communication: What ordinary members of the public “believe” about climate change doesn’t reflect what they know; it expresses who they are. What can the science of science communication do for climate communicators? Everything I know about climate science communication: What ordinary members of the public “believe” about climate change doesn’t reflect what they know; it expresses who they are. So you tell me! Disentanglement principle: “Don’t make reasoning, free people choose between knowing what’s known & being who they are!” Evolution: Classroom Climate: Local govt Disentanglement principle: “Don’t make reasoning, free people choose between knowing what’s known & being who they are!” What can the science of science communication do for climate communicators? Everything I know about climate science communication: What ordinary members of the public “believe” about climate change doesn’t reflect what they know; it expresses who they are. So you tell me! Great! I’ll measure!! Disentanglement principle: “Don’t make reasoning, free people choose between knowing what’s known & being who they are!” Dan M. Kahan Yale Law School Donald Braman George Washington University John Gastil University of Washington Geoffrey Cohen Stanford University Paul Slovic University of Oregon Ellen Peters Ohio State University Hank Jenkins-Smith University of Oklahoma David Hoffman Temple Law School Gregory Mandel Temple Law School Maggie Wittlin Cultural Cognition Project Lab Lisa Larrimore-Ouelette Cultural Cognition Project Lab Danieli Evans Cultural Cognition Project Lab June Carbone Univ. Missouri-Kansas City Michael Jones Safra Ethics Center, Harv. Univ. Naomi Cahn George Washington University Jeffrey Rachlinksi Cornell Law School John Byrnes Cultural Cognition Project Lab John Monahan University of Virginia www. culturalcognition.net “I am you!”