Demand and Supply Principles of Microeconomics Professor Dalton ECON 202 – Fall 2013 Boise State University Markets Market : any institution, mechanism, or arrangement which facilitates voluntary cooperation among individuals. A market is a group of buyers and sellers of a particular good or service. • Buyers determine demand. • Sellers determine supply. The Concept of Demand Demand refers to the offers of buyers to purchase a good or service. Determinants of Demand 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. Market Price Consumer Income Prices of Related Goods Tastes Expectations Taxes on/subsidies to consumers Number of Consumers (demographic changes) “Ceteris Paribus “ All the relevant variables (e.g., determinants of demand) are held constant, except the one(s) being studied at the time. The ceteris paribus proviso is a constraint on theorizing, not an aspect of the real world. It focuses attention on one aspect of change so that the analysis does not become confused (or confusing). Demand Curve The Demand Curve shows the maximum quantity that consumers are willing to purchase at any given price, or the maximum price that consumers are willing to pay for any given quantity. Price At P1, Q1 is the maximum quantity that will be purchased At Q0, P0 is the maximum price that consumers will pay P1 P0 Q1 Q0 D Quantity/time The Law of Demand The Law of Demand The quantity demanded of a good or service is an inverse function of the good or service’s ownprice, ceteris paribus. Price As the price of a good falls... …the quantity demanded of the good increases P1 P0 D Q1 Q0 Quantity/time Non-Price Determinants of Demand A demand curve shows the inverse relationship between price and quantity demanded. The magnitude of nonprice determinants determine “where” the demand curve lies in price/quantity space. Price D2 D0 D1 Quantity/time Non-Price Determinants of Demand Changes in all nonprice determinants of demand shift the demand curve to either the left or right, depending on the change. Price Demand Curve shifts right -Increase in Demand Demand Curve shifts left -Decrease in Demand D0 D1 D2 Quantity/time Change in Demand Increase in Demand an increase in the maximum quantity consumers will purchase at a given price, or an increase in the price consumers will pay for any given quantity. Decrease in Demand a decrease in the maximum quantity consumers will purchase at a given price, or a decrease in the price consumers will pay for any given quantity. D Quantity Demanded v. D Demand Change in Quantity Demanded A movement along a demand curve; caused only by a change in a good’s own-price. Change in Demand A shift in the entire demand curve, either right or left, caused by a change in a non-price determinant of demand. Change in Quantity Demanded Price $2.00 $1.00 Demand 7 13 Quantity/time Change in Demand Price $2.00 D2 D1 7 15 Quantity/time Changes in Non-Price Determinants of Demand 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. Consumer Income Prices of Related Goods Tastes Expectations Taxes on/subsidies to consumers Number of Consumers Change in Consumer Income Consumer Income Normal goods and Inferior goods For normal goods: An increase in income will increase demand; and a decrease in income will decrease demand. Demand moves in the same direction as changes in income. For inferior goods: An increase in income will decrease demand; and a decrease in income will increase demand. Demand moves in the opposite direction as changes in income. Change in Price of Related Goods Prices of Related Goods Substitutes and Complements For substitutes: An increase in the price of a substitute increases demand; a decrease in the price of a substitute decreases demand. Demand moves in the same direction as changes in substitute good prices. For complements: An increase in the price of a complement decreases demand; a decrease in the price of a complement increases demand. Demand moves in the opposite direction as changes in complementary good prices. Change in Tastes Tastes An increase in the taste (or preference) for a good will increase demand; a decrease in the taste (or preference) for a good will decrease demand. Demand moves in the same direction as changes in tastes (preferences). Change in Expectations Expectations Price and Income An expectation that price will rise in the future will increase demand now, and vice versa. Demand moves in the same direction as changes in expectations of future price. (storable v. non-storable goods) An expectation that income will rise in the future will increase demand now, and vice versa. Demand moves in the same direction as changes in expectations of future income. (normal v. inferior goods) Change in Taxes/Subsidies Taxes and subsidies Taxies levied on consumers increase the cost of goods to consumers. Demand moves in the opposite direction as changes in taxes on consumers (increase in tax reduces demand). Subsidies provided to consumers decrease the cost of goods to consumers. Demand moves in the same direction as changes in subsidies to consumers (increase in subsidy increases demand). Change in Number of Consumers Number of Consumers An increase in the number of consumers for a good will increase demand; a decrease in the number of consumers for a good will decrease demand. Demand moves in the same direction as changes in the number of consumers. From Individual Demands to Market Demand $4.00 G 3.50 F Price per unit of X (in dollars) 3.00 E 2.50 D 2.00 C 1.50 B 1.00 0.50 0 A Cathy 2 Bruce 4 6 Market demand Alice 8 10 12 14 16 X per week The Concept of Supply Supply refers to the offers of sellers to sell a good or service. Determinants of Supply 1. Market Price 2. Input Prices 3. Technology 4. Expectations 5. Taxes on/subsidies to sellers 6. Number of Sellers Supply Curve The Supply Curve shows the maximum quantity that sellers are willing to sell at any given price, or the minimum price that sellers are willing to receive for any given quantity. Price At P1, Q1 is the maximum quantity that will be offered for sale S At Q0, P0 is the minimum price that sellers will accept P1 P0 Q0 Q1 Quantity/time The Law of Supply The Law of Supply The quantity supplied of a good or service is a positive function of the good or service’s own-price, ceteris paribus. Price S As the price of a good rises... …the quantity supplied of the good increases P1 P0 Q0 Q1 Quantity/time Non-Price Determinants of Supply A supply curve shows the positive relationship between price and quantity supplied. The magnitude of nonprice determinants determine “where” the supply curve lies in price/quantity space. Price S0 S1 S2 Quantity/time Non-Price Determinants of Supply Changes in all nonprice determinants of supply shift the Supply curve to either the left or right, depending on the change. Price Supply Curve shifts left -Decrease in Supply S0 S1 S2 Supply Curve shifts right -Increase in Supply Quantity/time Change in Supply Increase in Supply an increase in the maximum quantity sellers will offer to sell at a given price, or a decrease in the minimum price sellers will accept for any given quantity. Decrease in Supply a decrease in the maximum quantity sellers will offer to sell at a given price, or an increase in the minimum price sellers will accept for any given quantity. D Quantity Supplied v. D Supply Change in Quantity Supplied A movement along a Supply curve; caused only by a change in a good’s own-price. Change in Supply A shift in the entire Supply curve, either right or left, caused by a change in a non-price determinant of Supply. Change in Quantity Supplied Price Supply $2.00 $1.00 7 13 Quantity/time Change in Supply Price S1 S2 $2.00 7 15 Quantity/time Changes in Non-Price Determinants of Supply 2. Input Prices 3. Technology 4. Expectations 5. Taxes on/subsidies to sellers 6. Number of Sellers Change in Input Prices Input Prices An increase in an input price increases costs and at given market price for output reduces profits, decreasing the incentive to supply, and vice versa. Supply moves in the opposite direction as changes in input price. Change in Technology Technology Advances in technology reduce costs and at given market price for output increases profits, increasing the incentive to supply, and vice versa. Supply moves in the same direction as changes in technology. Change in Expectations Expectations Future output price and future input price An expectation that output price will rise in the future will decrease supply now, and vice versa. Supply moves in the opposite direction as changes in expectations of future output price. (storable v. non- storable goods; production v. supply) An expectation that input prices will rise in the future will increase production now, but may not affect supply. (storable v. non-storable goods; production v. supply) Change in Taxes/Subsidies Taxes and subsidies Taxies levied on sellers reduce the price received. Supply moves in the opposite direction as changes in taxes on sellers (increase in tax reduces supply). Subsidies provided to sellers increase the price received. Supply moves in the same direction as changes in subsides to sellers (increase in subsidy increases supply). Change in Number of Sellers Number of Sellers An increase in the number of sellers of a good will increase supply; a decrease in the number of sellers of a good will decrease supply. Supply moves in the same direction as changes in the number of sellers. From Individual Supplies to Market Supply $4.00 Charlie Barry Ann Market Supply Price per DVD 3.50 H 3.00 G 2.50 F 2.00 E 1.50 D 1.00 0.50 0 A C B CA Quantity of DVDs supplied (per week) I Demand and Supply Putting It Together Suppose sellers expect a price of Pe to exist in the market this time period. Then they supply Q0 units. But when they arrive at market, buyers bid the price up to PD. Since the demand price is greater than the supply price, suppliers increase output. P S PD Pe D Q0 Q/t Demand and Supply Putting It Together Suppose sellers expect a price of Pe to exist in the market this time period. P S Pe Then they supply Q1 units. But when they arrive at market, buyers bid the price down to PX. Since the demand price is less than the supply price, suppliers decrease output. PX D Q1 Q/t Equilibrium Only when the quantity of output is such that the maximum price buyers are willing to pay is equal to the minimum price that sellers are willing to receive is there no change in behavior. Equilibrium occurs!!!!! P S P* D Q* Q/t Equilibrium Equilibrium Price The price at which the supply and demand curves intersect. Quantity Supplied and Quantity Demanded are equal at this price. Equilibrium Quantity The quantity at which the supply and demand curves intersect. Demand Price and Supply Price are equal at this quantity. Equilibrium Equilibrium occurs when… (1) At the current quantity, the demand price equals the supply price; or, (2) At the current price, the quantity demanded equals the quantity supplied; or, (3) The plans of all participants in the market have been fulfilled at the current price. The Nature of Equilibrium In a free market, the forces of supply and demand interact to push actual market price and quantity toward equilibrium price and quantity. Equilibrium isn’t necessarily a state of the world; but rather is a characteristic of our reasoning about markets. Disequilibrium Excess Supply (Surplus) Price is above equilibrium price, therefore producers are unable to sell all they want at the going price. Excess Demand (Shortage) Price is below equilibrium price, therefore consumers are unable to buy all they want at the going price. Disequilibrium P If price is above the equilibrium price... …then QS > QD. S Excess Supply PH An excess supply (surplus) of the good occurs. Excess supply creates competition among sellers, lowering price. D QD QS Q/t Disequilibrium P If price is below the equilibrium price... S …then QD > QS. An excess demand (shortage) for the good occurs. Excess demand creates competition among buyers, raising price. PL Excess Demand QS QD D Q/t Disequilibrium Disequilibrium occurs when… (1) At the current quantity, the demand price differs from the supply price; or, (2) At the current price, the quantity demanded differs from the quantity supplied; or, (3) The plans of all participants in the market have not been fulfilled (at least some participants’ plans have been frustrated). The Gains from Trade At the equilibrium: P*, Q*. Consumer surplus equals… Producer surplus equals… The total gains from trade (economic surplus) equals… P P* S CS Total surplus PS D Q* Q/t The Gains from Trade If output is smaller… P S e.g., at Q’ The total gains from trade (economic surplus) are smaller… The foregone gains from trade equal… P* Total surplus D Q’ Q* Q/t The Gains from Trade If output is larger… P S e.g., at Q’’ The total gains from trade (economic surplus) are also smaller… Because the additional units are valued less than the foregone output elsewhere… P* Total surplus D Q* Q’’ Q/t The Gains from Trade At the equilibrium: P*, Q*… the gains from trade are maximized. No other output level, given the conditions of demand and supply will create greater social value! P P* S CS Total surplus PS D Q* Q/t Comparative Statics: Analyzing Changes in Equilibrium Determine if event shifts supply curve, the demand curve, or both. Determine if curve(s) shift to left or right. Determine how shift affects equilibrium price and quantity. Comparative Statics P Begin in equilibrium at P*, Q*. Increase in price of substitute occurs... P** Demand increases... …creating an excess P* demand at P*... …and buyers bid up price. As price rises, QS increases and QD decreases, until... … a new equilibrium occurs at a higher price and higher quantity. S Excess Demand D1 D Q* Q** Q/t Comparative Statics P Begin in equilibrium at P*, Q*. Decrease in price of inputs occurs... Supply increases... …creating an excess P* supply at P*... …and sellers bid down price. P** As price falls, QS decreases and QD increases, until... … a new equilibrium occurs at a lower price and higher quantity. S S1 Excess Supply D Q* Q** Q/t Comparative Statics: Summary Market Change Change Pe Change Qe Increase D Increase Increase Decrease D Decrease Decrease Increase S Decrease Increase Decrease S Increase Decrease Increase D and Increase S ? Increase Decrease D and Decrease S ? Decrease Increase D and Decrease S Increase ? Decrease D and Increase S Decrease ? Real-World Supply and Demand Applications Supply and demand can be used to evaluate real-world events and the policies of government. • Examples of real world markets and price determination • Impact of specific real world events • Impact of government policies The Price of a Foreign Currency The market for foreign currencies is called the foreign exchange (forex) market. The exchange rate – the price of one currency in terms of another currency. • People demand currencies of other countries to buy those countries’ goods and assets. • A currency is just another good. • The determination of exchange rate is the same as the determination of price. The Price of a Foreign Currency The euro is the currency used by the 12 members of the European Union. • Belgium, Germany, Greece, Spain, France, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Austria, Portugal, Finland The euro was first introduced on January 1, 1999, and Euro notes and coins entered circulation on January 1, 2002. • (From Jan. 1, 1999 to December 31, 2001, the euro was an accounting currency with a fixed exchange rate among national currencies.) The Price of a Foreign Currency When first introduced in January of 1999 the price of a euro in US dollars was $1.17. Over the next two years the price of a euro fell to about $0.90. From a low in June 2001, the euro has rebounded to a price of around $1.34 in December of 2004. J19 M 99 y19 9 S- 9 19 99 J20 M 00 y20 0 S- 0 20 00 J20 M 01 y20 0 S- 1 20 01 J20 M 02 y20 0 S- 2 20 02 J20 M 03 y20 0 S- 3 20 03 J20 M 04 y20 0 S- 4 20 04 $/Euro The Price of a Foreign Currency Dollar Price of Euro 1.600 1.400 1.200 1.000 0.800 0.600 0.400 0.200 0.000 Tim e The Price of a Foreign Currency Changes in the price of one currency in terms of another are primarily driven by international trade requirements. To buy a BMW, I need to exchange dollars for euros (because German workers want to be paid in euros, not dollars). Importers usually do this at the wholesale stage, rather than consumers at the retail stage. The Price of a Foreign Currency Typically then, the price of euros will rise with a greater demand for European Union assets/goods by Americans relative to European Union demand for U.S. assets/goods. The price of euros will fall with a greater demand by Europeans for American assets/goods relative to American demand for European assets/goods. The Price of a Foreign Currency From 1999 to mid-2001, Europeans increased their demand for dollars (supply of euros) as the US stock market rose; simultaneously Americans exited European stock markets, decreasing the supply of dollars (demand for euros). The supply of euros rose and the demand for euros fell, driving the dollar price of euros down. Euro Market Dollar Price of Euros S0 S1 P1 D0 P2 D1 Q0 Quantity of Euros The Price of a Foreign Currency From mid-2001, except for a brief rally in late 2001 and early 2002, the American stock market fell to a bottom in mid 2003; at the same time, American demand for foreign goods relative to foreign demand for American goods accelerated. Europeans decreased their demand for dollars (supply of euros) as the US stock market fell; simultaneously Americans re-entered European stock markets and demanded greater quantities of foreign goods, increasing the supply of dollars (demand for euros). The supply of euros fell and demand for euros rose, driving the dollar price of euros up. Euro Market Dollar Price of Euros S1 S0 P2 D1 P1 D0 Q0 Quantity of Euros