ECONOMIC OUTLOOK OF
TURKEY
Alexia Manousou, First Secretary for Economic & Commercial Affairs
Consulate General of Greece in Istanbul -Office of Economic & Commercial Affairs
1
Turkey at a glance
2

Population: 75,6mil.

0-14 : 27,3%,

15-64 :65,2
65+ : 7,5%(2012 est.)

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Average age: 30 years old

Urban population:70%

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Major cities: Istanbul (12,9 mil.), Ankara (4,2 mil.), Izmir (2,7 mil.),
Bursa (1,6 mil.)

23,9 % of total consumption expenditure is done by households in Istanbul
Turkey’s west-east gap in revenues
Economic Environment
3
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GDP per capita
GDP Growth (2011)
GDP Growth (2012)
Inflation
Unemployment
Total exports in 2012
Total imports in 2012
Trade Balance deficit
Current Account deficit.
Unregistered economy:
Exchange Rate Euro/TL
10.444 USD
8,5%
3%
6,16% (Jan. 2013)
10,1% (Dec. 2012)
152,536 bil. $
236,544 bil. $
84,008 bil. $
7,3% of GDP
32,1%
1/2,35
TURKISH IMPORTS 2011-12 – Top 20 Chapters
(Source: Tuik)
HS2
4
Product Category
2011
Value
(thousand.$)
2012
Value
(thousand.)
Variation
(%)
Compositio
n
(%)
27
Mineral fuels, minerals oils and product of their distillation
54 117 539
60 116 858
11
25,4
84
Boilers, machinery and mechanical appliances: parts thereof
27 110683
26 314 690
-3
11,1
72
Iron and steel
20 424 235
19 642 041
-4
8,3
85
Electrical machinery and equipment: parts thereof
16 835 117
16 279 679
-3
6,9
87
Vehicle other than railway or tramway rolling_stock,parts
thereof
17 184 080
14 514 260
-16
6,1
39
Plastic and articles thereof
12 578 501
12 505 303
-1
5,3
71
Pearls, precious stones, precious metals: and articles thereof
7 022 384
8 529 940
21
3,6
29
Organic chemicals
5 504 435
5 064 621
-8
2,1
90
Optical,photographic,cinematographic,measuring
4 116 482
4 055 501
-1
1,7
30
Pharmaceutical products
4 697 445
3 995 651
-15
1,7
74
Copper and articles thereof
4 118 790
3 878 283
-6
1,6
88
Aircraft and parts thereof
3 932 966
3 157 690
-20
1,3
40
Rubber and articles thereof
3 361 769
3 035 461
-10
1,3
76
Aliminium and articles thereof
3 258 885
2 984 961
-8
1,3
48
Paper & paperboard
3 109 936
2 882 669
-7
1,2
52
Cotton,cotton yarn and cotton textiles
3 608 860
2 377 547
-34
1,0
73
Articles of iron and steel
2 521 135
2 367 172
-6
1,0
55
Man_made fibres (discontinuous)
2 467 117
2 223 177
-10
0,9
54
Man_made filament
2 007 424
2 173 345
8
0,9
38
Miscellaneous chemical products
2 204 854
2 053 155
-7
0,9
Greek exports to Turkey 2011-2012
(Source: tuik)
HS2
41
10
Mineral fuels, minerals oils and
product of their distillation
Cotton, cotton yarn and cotton
textiles
Plastic and articles thereof
Aliminium and articles thereof
Copper and articles thereof
Row hides and skins (other than
furskins) and sole leather
Cereals
84
Boilers, machinery and mechanical
appliances: parts thereof
27
52
39
76
74
89
85
48
32
31
33
5
Product category
Ships, boats and floating structures
Electrical machinery and equipment:
parts thereof
Paper & paperboard:articles of paper
pulp of paper or of paperbo.
Tanning and dyeing extracts: fillers
andstoppings : inks
Fertilisers
2011
2012
2011-2012
Variation
Composition 2012
1.672.242.727
2.533.938.244
51,5%
71,5
121.826.355
220.956.252
66.900.279
35.772.927
261.162.404
195.415.297
86.435.985
56.869.712
114,3%
-11,5%
29,2%
58,9%
7,4
5,5
2,4
1,6
36.844.754
8.038.796
39.775.967
38.313.319
7,9%
376,0%
1,1
1,1
45.990.223
28.664.066
-37,6%
0,8
25.639.212
28.661.721
11,7%
0,8
33.604.348
19.735.321
-41,2%
0,6
18.410.429
16.945.598
-7,9%
0,5
15.799.785
17.884.521
15.198.012
15.133.078
-6,0%
-15,3%
0,4
0,4
11.797.581
3.539.868.997
1.005.930.753
50,5%
37,8%
12,20%
0,3
Essential oils and resinoids:perfumery,
cosmetic or toilet prep.
7.838.029
TOTAL
2.568.826.355
Total imports excluding fuels
896.583.628
Bilateral Trade Greece - Turkey 2008-12
excluding fuels
2,500
2,000
Value(mil.€)
1,500
1,000
500
0
-500
-1,000
-1,500
Imports
Exports
Trade Volume
Balance
6
2008
1,611.21
578.18
2,189.38
-1,033.02
2009
1,181.44
557.28
1,738.72
-624.16
2010
1,042.06
795.23
1,837.29
-246.83
2011
973.46
699.2
1,672.66
-274.26
2012
838.39
810.48
1,648.87
-27.91
Sectors in Turkish economy
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Food & Beverages
Construction & Building Materials
Energy – RES (New Law)
Pharmaceuticals – Cosmetics
Food & Beverages
8
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Since 1996: Customs Union Agreement EU-Turkey.
Nevertheless, in some agricultural products Turkey
imposes high tariffs
Examples: 102.6% wheat flour, cheese up to 180%,
table olives-19.5% -31.2% olive oil, 38.5% honey, wines
-50%, figs - 45.9%, citrus - 54%, grapes - 54.9%,
watermelons - 86.4%, apples - 60.3%, 55.8% peaches.
Potential for: cocoa, chocolate - coffee - wine – frozen biological - ready to cook or eat food - gourmet health food products
VAT: 8% (1%).
Beverages & Spirits - Chapter 22
Turkish Imports
9
250,000,000
200,000,000
150,000,000
100,000,000
50,000,000
0
2003
•
•
•
2004
2005
2006
High special consumption tax
VAT:18%
Duties for wine: 50%
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Construction sector
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Dynamic sector – second worldwide
Represents 6% of the GDP of Turkey
About 100 contractors undertake 90% of the
projects.
International presence: 2012: 33 t / construction
companies included in "The World's Top 225
International Contractors" list.
Contracts in Turkmenistan, Ethiopia, Iraq, S.Arabia,
Russia, Kazakhstan, Bosnia and Herzegovina,
Morocco, Azerbaijan, etc.
Construction sector (2)
11
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Major projects underway: Istanbul – Izmir highway
(roads, bridges), third Bosphorus bridge, satellite cities,
large projects in Ankara (subway etc). 112 projects
worth 8.96 billion dollars.: 16 dams, 49 hydropower
stations, irrigation systems, water treatment and
purification
Foreign companies undertake projects through joint
ventures with Turkish counterparts (expertise )
Opportunities in projects aiming at reducing energy
costs - need for greater energy efficiency
Building Materials
12
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The building materials industry is the third largest in Turkey
Turkey produces and exports a variety of building
materials: cement, ready-mix concrete, aerated concrete,
steel pipe, glass, glazing, ceramic coating, ceramic sanitary
ware, construction coatings, natural bubbles, raw marble,
plastic window frames, plastic prefabricated elements,
aluminum
Interest for Medium – High technology products
Sectors: insulation, electrical equipment, piping, coatings,
paints, radiators, aluminum material,
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Renewable Energy Sources
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Turkey is not self sufficient in energy resources.
Approximately 76 % of Turkey’s energy requirement was met
with the imported energy. Diversification of imports in terms
of sources, routes and technologies has long been an
important policy tool for Turkey to improve its energy supply
security.
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Lignite : appr. 10,000 MW Lignite firing power plants are in operation
Hydraulic Energy : 40% of the hydro capacity is in use, by means of 16,000
MW power plants which are in operation now.
Wind power: Only 1200 MW is used by 600 pieces of wind turbines.
GEOTHERMAL:: small part of this capacity is operation ( appr. 200 MW )
Solar Energy: the used installed power capacity today is negligible due to
the unit cost of PV power
New Law for RES in Turkey
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INCENTIVES FOR RENEWABLE ENERGIES IN TURKEY:
Pharmaceuticals
15
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16th worldwide in terms of production
significant lack of R& D and high dependence on
imports.
300 companies
20 companies hold 66% market share
The pharmaceutical market includes 23,000
pharmacies and 500 drug stores
Imports of pharmaceuticals in Turkey
16
Amounts in $
5,000,000,000
4,500,000,000
4,000,000,000
3,500,000,000
3,000,000,000
2,500,000,000
2,000,000,000
1,500,000,000
1,000,000,000
500,000,000
0
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
In 2012
Total imports reached 4 billion dollars. - 15%
Imports from Greece reached 7.6 million €, - 31%
2011
2012
Imports of pharmaceuticals in Turkey (2)
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Imports of raw materials and semi-finished
products: 25% of total imports
Big amount of original drugs imported while
generics are produced mostly domestically
No import duties for EU
Registration by Turkish natural / legal persons
Requirements: certificate of conformity (Ministry of
Health), certificate of good manufacturing practice
(GMP) - Delays
Cosmetics
18
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170,000 products
1,435 local companies
The 1/3 of the market for hair care products
Interest in natural products
in sunscreens, men’s skin care and baby care
products
Imports of chapter 33 exceed 1 billion. $
Cosmetics
Imports from Greece
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2009

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2010
2011
2012
Greek exports to 3.758.040
Turkey
4.531.680
7.838.029
11.797.581
Total turkish
imports
984.293.208
1.071.449.336
1.027.869.786
839.860.379
In 2009, the share of Greek exports accounted for
0.44% of total Turkish imports whereas in 2012 it
increased to 1.02%.
The last 4 years Greek exports increased by 314%.
20
Thank you for your attention
Embassy of Greece in Ankara - Office of Economic & Commercial Affairs :
ecocom-ankara@mfa.gr
Consulate General of Greece in Istanbul -Office of Economic & Commercial Affairs:
ecocom-istanbul@mfa.gr
Website : www.agora.mfa.gr