The Last Lecture
outline
• Exam
• Review
– Cases
– Readings
– themes
• Final words
Key elements
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Forces at work framework
Institutions and governance
Interest Groups
First Nations
International Context
US Influence
Policy Cycle
– Policy Formulation
– Decision-making and Policy
Design
– Implementation
• Cases
– Mountain Pine Beetle
– Midterm timber supply
– tenure
– Great Bear Rainforest
– Forest carbon
– Forest practices
regulation
• New Values: Carbon and
Bio-energy
• Comparisons
November 24, 2014
3
Final Exam X Celebration of Learning
• December 3 – 3:30-5:30 FSC
1005
• 2 hour exam
• All material from policy
agenda+ formulation forward
• Responsible for themes for
whole course (final list
discussed in class Thursday)
• Responsible for specifics of
readings and lectures only from
decision-making (October 28)
forward except section of Chap
1 ISOS on policy cycle
4
Final Exam X Celebration of Learning
• December 3 – 3:30-5:30 FSC
1005
• 2 hour exam
• All material from policy
agenda+ formulation forward
• Responsible for themes for
whole course (final list
discussed in class Thursday)
• George Office hours
– Today 1-2
– Monday, Tuesday 10-12; 1-3
• Gabrielle Office hours
– Today 12:30 - 3pm
– Friday 10am - 1pm
• Responsible for specifics of
readings and lectures only
from decision-making
(October 28) forward except
section of Chap 1 ISOS on
policy cycle
5
readings
1.
Benjamin Cashore, George Hoberg,
Michael Howlett, Jeremy Rayner, and
Jeremy Wilson, In Search of
Sustainability, pp. 3-7, 17, 20-29
(reading packet)
5.
Karen Price, Audrey Roburn, Andy
MacKinnon, “Ecosystem-based
management in the Great Bear Rainforest”
6.
Auditor General of BC, An Audit of Carbon
Neutral Government, March 2013, Note:
you are responsible for the general issues
and the details of the Darkwoods case, but
not responsible for the details of the
Encana case.
2.
Marty Luckert, David Haley, and George
Hoberg, Policies for Sustainably
Managing Canada’s Forests, pp. 97-102
3.
Forest Practices Board, A Decade in
Review: Observations on Regulation of
Forest and Range Practices in British
Columbia,
7.
Constance McDermott, et al Global
Environmental Forest Policies: An
International Comparison, Chapter 3,
“Canada and the United States.”
4.
David Weimer and Aidan Vining, Policy
Analysis: Concepts and Practice, pp.
274-280. (reading packet)
8.
Marty Luckert, David Haley, and George
Hoberg, Policies for Sustainably Managing
Canada’s Forests, Chapter 6
Analytical Framework: Forces at work
in natural resources policy
•
•
•
who decides
who participates
at what level
governance
policies
environment
•
•
Biophysical characteristics
Resource characteristics
markets
•
•
•
•
Prices
Exchange rates
Supply and demand
Trade restrictions
actions
Consequences
7
Institutions and Governance
• Policies are produced through governance processes, influenced by
environment and markets.
• Governance addresses who decides, who participates, at what level
of government, and with which instruments.
• Canadian forest policy is dominated by the provincial level of
government.
• BC’s government is dominated by the executive, particularly the
premier.
• Courts have played a limited role in forest policy, with the
exception of Aboriginal issues, because of the discretionary nature
of BC statutes.
• Institutional design matters because the balance of preferences
may change as the location of authority changes
November 24, 2014
8
Actors: Strategies and Resources
• Actors in the policy process have interests and
resources, and adopt strategies designed to best use
those resources in pursuit of their interests
• Politicians are primarily driven by electoral incentives,
making public opinion a significant constraint on
government action
• Business control over investment gives it a structural
advantage
• Public opinion is far more influential on policy makers
when it is salient
• Environmentalists have effectively used marketoriented strategies to increase their power
November 24, 2014
9
First Nations
• First Nations have effectively used the courts
to increase their power
• The BC government has undergone a
profound shift in relations towards First
Nations, from active repression through
resistance and now apparently sincere efforts
at reconciliation
November 24, 2014
10
International Influences
• Changes in international markets and technology
have undercut BC’s comparative advantage
• A combination of globally valued resources and
reliance on trade makes BC highly vulnerable to
international influences
• Certification has increased the influence of
private standard-setting organizations but there is
little evidence of on-the-ground impacts
November 24, 2014
11
US Influence
• US trade pressures have pushed costs up and
constrained BC’s policy sovereignty.
• BC’s market-oriented forest policy reforms
were strongly influenced by trade pressures by
the United States
November 24, 2014
12
5 stage Policy Cycle Model
Agenda-Setting
Policy Formulation
Decisionmaking
Policy Implementation
Monitoring and Evaluation
13
Policy Cycle
Agenda-setting
• Issues get on the government agenda through
a confluence of problem and politics streams
November 24, 2014
14
Policy Cycle
Policy Formulation
• Policy formulation involves both “thinking”
(analysis) and “talking” (consultation with
stakeholders)
• The best argument explicitly addresses an
opponents’ strongest claim and addresses it
with evidence and reason
November 24, 2014
15
Policy Cycle:
Decision-making
• Because of the challenges to conflict resolution, policy
is often made without clarifying objectives
• Because of limited resources, rational decision-making
is usually not feasible
• A major challenge for forest policy making is designing
policies to accommodate spatial diversity
• Forest practices regulation in BC relies on a
combination of vague performance objectives, practice
requirements, and planning requirements. In
comparative terms, BC’s regulatory framework is highly
stringent.
16
Implementation Challenges
• There is a tension between factors for success
in decision-making (agreement) and
implementation (clarity and specificity)
• The meaning is in the detail: it is impossible to
understand how policy affects the distribution
of values without understanding the details of
policy design and implementation.
November 24, 2014
17
Emerging Values:
Carbon, Bio-energy
• BC’s forests can potentially contribute to
greenhouse gas reductions, but immense
complexity and uncertainty make effective
and efficient policy design very difficult
• Forest bioenergy in BC is likely to be a
significant, economical source of energy only
as a residual product of the forest sector.
November 24, 2014
18
Comparative context
• In comparative context, BC forest policy is
relatively distinct in a number of ways, among
them: a high level of government ownership,
the limited role for the federal government,
and a focus on natural forest management in
old growth forests.
November 24, 2014
19
From next Tuesday
• Potential beneficial policy changes are
frequently thwarted by intellectual, political,
and/or institutional obstacles. Path
dependence increases the costs of change.
November 24, 2014
20
Key elements
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Forces at work framework
Institutions and governance
Interest Groups
First Nations
International Context
US Influence
Policy Cycle
– Policy Formulation
– Decision-making and Policy
Design
– Implementation
• Cases
– Mountain Pine Beetle
– Midterm timber supply
– tenure
– Great Bear Rainforest
– Forest carbon
– Forest practices
regulation
• New Values: Carbon and
Bio-energy
• Comparisons
November 24, 2014
21
Closing thoughts
• The meaning is in the detail
Last word: Critical Thinking
• Complexity
• Facts and values
• Steps:
– Identify argument
– Values underlying
– Facts
• Be respective of value
differences
– Be conscious of “motivated
reasoning”
• Mobilize evidence
• Persuasion requires
appealing to their values
Steps in Policy Analysis
• Define problem
• Criteria for evaluation
• Identify multiple alternatives
• Outcomes/consequences of
alternatives
• Compare/tradeoff
• Recommended decision