The Triple Challenges of Carbon Reduction, Energy
Security and Cost of Future Uk Energy Supplies
Institution of Mechanical Engineers
Park Farm, Hethersett: March 19th 2015
Recipient of James Watt Gold Medal
Keith Tovey (杜伟贤) MA, PhD, CEng, MICE, CEnv :
Reader Emeritus in Environmental Engineering , Norwich
Business School, University of East Anglia, Norwich
1
The Triple Challenges of Carbon Reduction, Energy Security and
Cost of our Future Energy Supplies
Some of the Key issues
• What are key issues of Energy Security, particularly in the
next few years with older stations closing and UK now
dependent on over 50% of its gas from imported sources and
also two thirds of its coal?
• What might the future electricity generation mix look like?
• How does UK energy mix compare with that of other
countries?
• What contribution might “Fracking” provide for security for
electricity generation?
• To what extent would variable renewables such as wind
cause issues on the secure supply of electricity?
• What are the cost implications of the options available?
• What is the impact of support for renewables on the price of
electricity?
2
• Are the lights likely to go out over the next few years?
Arctic Sea Ice Cover 1979 - 2012
Minimum Summer Sea Ice in 1979 ~ 7.01 million sq km
• Red line outlines extent for reference
• Minimum Summer Sea Ice in 2012 ~ 3.44 million sq km
a loss of 51% in 33 years
• Significantly lower in 2012 than average minimum
• Source http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/2012-seaicemin.html
•
3
Wholesale Cost of Electricity
Wholesale Electricity Prices
12
p/kWh
10
8
Oil reaches
$130 a barrel
UK no longer
self sufficient
in gas
Langeled Line
to Norway
Severe Cold
Spells
6
4
2
UK Government Projection in 2003 for 2020
0
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
wholesale prices updated to 4th March 2015
Weekly volume weighted average Wholesale Prices
Wholesale prices are 2.2 times what they were in 2004
4
Variation in Wholesale and Retail Electriity Prices
Electricity Price Indices (2001 = 100)
600
wholesale
500
retail
400
300
200
100
0
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
In recent years, electricity retail prices have varied
much less than wholesale prices. However in recent
months retail prices have risen above long term
wholesale trends.
5
What are causes of price rises in recent years?
• In period 2004-13, Electricity Bills for average household
have risen from ~ £288 to around ~£577 or ~100% *
How much can be attributed to support for Renewables
under the Renewable obligation?
• Support for All Renewables in 2013-14 was £2.60 billion **.
However 304,500,000 MWh was supplied
representing an increase of 0.853 p/kWh in retail price of
electricity
• At typical domestic unit prices of 13.4p per kWh this
represents and increase of just 6.4%.
• Of this the impact of onshore wind on bills in 2013-14 was
0.254p per kWh or ~ 1.9%. For offshore the figures are
0.325p and 2.4% respectively.
• Wholesale prices had risen from 2p in 2004 to 4.5p per kWh
by end of 2014.
* Data from Quarterly Energy Prices from DECC Website
** OFGEM Annual Report
6
CO2 Emissions and Electricity (kg/kWh)
1
0.8
EU
Developing
OECD
Oil Producing
World Average 0.550
UK
0.6
France
0.4
0.2
Switzerland
Norway
Sweden
Brazil
France
Austria
Belgium
Spain
Russia
Qatar
Italy
Japan
UAE
UK
Netherlands
Germany
USA
Mexico
Denmark
Saudi Arabia
Libya
China
Australia
India
Poland
0
Overall: UK ~500 gm/kWh: France ~80 gm/kWh Saudi Arabia ~700 gm/kWh
* Extracted from IEA Statistics in Jan 2014 – data relate to 2010
7
7
Electricity Generation Mix in selected Countries
UK
Switzerland
Russia
Coal
France
Norway
Brazil
Oil
Hydro/ Tidal/Wave
Germany
Sweden
Japan
China
2010
Poland
Saudi
Arabia
USA
UK-2013
India
Gas
Nuclear
Other Renewables
Biofuels/Waste
8
Impact of Electricity Generation on Carbon Emissions.
Approximate Carbon Emission factors during electricity generation including
fuel extraction, fabrication and transport.
Fuel
Approximate
Comments
emission factor
per kWh
Coal
Oil
~800-900
Depending on grade and
efficiency of power station
~600g
Conventional Steam Station
Gas (CCGT)
~400g
Most modern stations may be as
low as 380g
Nuclear
5 – 10g
Depending on reactor type
Overall UK including
transmission
*
Depending on grade and
efficiency of power station
Gas (Steam)
Renewables
•
~900 – 1000g
~0
~541g*
For wind, PV, hydro
Varies on hour by hour basis
depending on generation mix
Transmission/Distribution losses UK ~ 8%: India ~ 24%
DECC Guidance for reporting July 2014
9
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Non-Renewable Methods
Generation
Type
Potential contribution to electricity supply in Predicted Cost in 2020
2020 and drivers/barriers
2011 (*) Dec 2013 (*)
8.0p
0 - 70% (at present 25- Available now (but
Gas CCGT
[5 - 11]/kWh 8.5p/kWh
35%)
gas is running out)
Billion Cubic Metres
* Energy Review 2011 – Climate Change Committee May 2011
120
* Energy Generation Costs: DECC 2013 Central Projection
Impact of
100
temporary
switch to coal
generation
80
60
40
20
0
Actual UK production
Actual UK demand
Projected production
Projected demand
Actual Production
Actual Demand
Import
Gap
1998
2002
2006
2010
2014
2018
Gas supply has become critical at times – e.g. at end of March 2013 – down
to 6 hours supply following technical problems on Norwegian Pipeline.
10
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Non-Renewable Methods
Generation
Type
Potential contribution to electricity supply in Predicted Cost in 2020
2020 and drivers/barriers
2011 (*) Dec 2013 (*)
present 25- Available now (but gas
Gas CCGT 0 - 70% (at
35%)
is running out)
8.0p
[5 - 11]
8.5p/kWh
Long construction
5 - 10% (France 75 - times (capital cost for
7.75p
9.25p
nuclear
80%) - (currently 18- Hinkley increased
[5.5 - 10] (Hinkley)/
fission
from £16 billion to
20% and falling)
/kWh
kWh
£24.5 billion
nuclear
not available until 2040 at earliest not until
unavailable
Nuclear
New
Build
assumes
one
new
station is2050
completed
each yearimpact
after 2020.
fusion
for significant
14000
Installed Capacity (MW)
[7.5 – 15p]
Available now: Not
"Clean
Coal currently
~40% but viable without Carbon - unlikely 9.5 – 13.4p/
Projected
Coal"10000 scheduled
to fall
Capture &
kWh
before 2025
Actual
Sequestration
8000
*
*
12000
New Build ?
6000
4000
2000
0
Energy Review 2011 – Climate Change Committee May 2011
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Energy Generation
Costs: DECC 2013 Central Projection
2040
11
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Predicted Cost in 2020
Potential contribution to electricity supply in
Generation
2011 (*) Gas Dec 2013 (*)
2020
and
drivers/barriers
Type
8p
Gas 8.5p
~8.2p
7.923 – 8.25
On Shore
~20% [~15000 x 3
available now for
p/ kWh **
Wind
MW turbines]
commercial exploitation +/- 0.8p
1.5MW Turbine
At peak output provides sufficient
electricity for 3000 homes – operating for
12 years
On average has provided electricity for
700 – 850 homes depending on year
*
Energy Review 2011 – Climate Change
Committee May 2011
* Energy Generation Costs: DECC 2013
Central Projection
** FIT – CfD Auction (February 26th 2015)
12
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Potential contribution to electricity supply Predicted Cost in 2020
Generation
May 2011 (*) Dec 2013 (*)
in 2020 and drivers/barriers
Gas 8p
Gas 8.5p
Type
On Shore
Wind
Off Shore
Wind
~8.2p
7.923 – 8.25
~20% [~15000 x 3
available now for
p/ kWh **
MW turbines]
commercial exploitation +/- 0.8p
some technical
11.49 –
12.5p
development needed to
20 - 40%
12.0p/ kWh
+/- 2.5p
reduce costs.
**
* Energy Review 2011 – Climate Change Committee May 2011
* Energy Generation Costs: DECC 2013 Central Projection
** FIT – CfD Auction (February 26th 2015)
Scroby Sands has a Load factor of 28.8% - 30% but
nevertheless produced sufficient electricity on average for
2/3rds of demand of houses in Norwich. At Peak time
13 Ipswich
sufficient for all houses in Norwich and
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Predicted Cost in 2020
Potential contribution to electricity supply in
Generation
May 2011 (*) Dec 2013
2020
and
drivers/barriers
Type
Gas 8p (*) Gas 8.5p
~8.2p
7.923 – 8.25
On Shore
~20% [~15000 x 3
available now for
+/- 0.8p
p/ kWh **
Wind
MW turbines]
commercial exploitation
some technical
11.49 –
Off Shore
12.5p
development needed to
20 - 40%
12.0p/ kWh
Wind
+/- 2.5p
reduce costs.
**
Micro Hydro Scheme operating
on Siphon Principle installed at
Itteringham Mill, Norfolk.
Rated capacity 5.5 kW
Hydro (inc.
mini - micro)
*
*
5%
technically mature, but
limited potential
11p for
<2MW
projects
Energy Review 2011 – Climate Change Committee May 2011
14
Energy Generation Costs: DECC 2013 Central Projection
Not Costed
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Predicted Cost in 2020
Potential contribution to electricity supply in
Generation
May 2011 (*) Dec 2013
2020
and
drivers/barriers
Type
Gas 8p (*) Gas 8.5p
7.923 – 8.25
On
Shore Change
~20%
[~15000
3
available
Climate
Report
2011xsuggests
that 1.6 now
TWhfor
(0.4%) in ~8.2p
p/ kWh **
Wind
turbines]
commercial
exploitation
2020 - ~ 2.0 GW. MW
But
2.1 GW already
installed
(Oct. 2014) +/- 0.8p
some technical
11.49 –
Off Shore
12.5p
development needed to
20 - 40%
12.0p/ kWh
Wind
+/- 2.5p
reduce costs.
**
11p for
Hydro (mini technically mature, but
<2MW
Not Costed
5%
micro)
limited potential
projects
Photovoltaic
<5% even
assuming 10
GW of
installation
available, and costs are 25p +/-8
13-15p
5.0 – 12.0 p
coming down – but low
(2012
/kWh **
load factors
projection)
* Energy Review 2011 – Climate Change Committee May 2011
* Energy Generation Costs: DECC 2013 Central Projection
** FIT – CfD Auction (February 26th 2015)
15
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Predicted Cost in 2020
Potential contribution to electricity supply in
Generation
May 2011 (*) Dec 2013
2020
and
drivers/barriers
Type
Gas 8p (*) Gas 8.5p
~8.2p
7.923 – 8.25
On Shore
~20% [~15000 x 3 To available
nowoffor
provide 5%
UK electricity
+/- size
0.8pof p/ kWh **
Wind
MW turbines]
commercial
exploitation
needs will require
an area the
someand
technical
11.49 –
Norfolk
Suffolk devoted solely
Off Shore
12.5p
development
20 - 40%
12.0p/ kWh
to biomass needed to
Wind
+/- 2.5p
reduce costs.
**
11p for
Hydro (mini technically mature, but
<2MW
Not Costed
5%
micro)
limited potential
projects
<5% even
available, and costs are
25p +/-8
5.0 – 12.0 p
Photovoltaic assuming 10 GW of coming down – but low 13-15p (2012 /kWh **
projection)
installation
load factors
Sewage, Landfill,
Energy Crops/
Biomass/Biogas
available, but research needed
9 - 13p
??5% but could be
Not Costed
in some areas e.g. advanced
larger with
depending on
gasification. Questions over
significant imports
technology
sustainability
* Energy Review 2011 – Climate Change Committee May 2011
* Energy Generation Costs: DECC 2013 Central Projection
** FIT – CfD Auction (February 26th 2015)
16
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Predicted Cost in 2020
Potential contribution to electricity supply in
Generation
May 2011 (*) Dec 2013
2020
and
drivers/barriers
Type
Gas 8p (*) Gas 8.5p
~8.2p
7.923 – 8.25
On Shore
~20% [~15000 x 3
available now for
+/- 0.8p
p/ kWh **
Wind
MW turbines]
commercial exploitation
11.49 –
Off Shore
development needed to
12.5p
20 - 40%
12.0p/ kWh
Wind
reduce costs.
+/- 2.5p
**
11p for
Hydro (mini technically mature, but
<2MW
Not Costed
5%
micro)
limited potential
projects
Photovoltaic
BIOMASS
Wave/Tidal
Stream
<<5% even assuming
further research needed to
10 GW of installation bring down costs significantly
??5%
Questions over sustainability
currently < 20
technology limited MW ?? 1000 major development not
2000 MW (~0.1%)
before 2020
* Energy Review 2011 – Climate Change Committee May 2011
* Energy Generation Costs: DECC 2013 Central Projection
** FIT – CfD Auction (February 26th 2015)
25p +/-8
(13-15p)
9 – 13p
5.0 – 12.0 p
/kWh **
Not Costed
19p Tidal
Not Costed
26.5p Wave
17
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Predicted Cost in 2020
Potential contribution to electricity supply in
Generation
May 2011 (*) Dec 2013
2020
and
drivers/barriers
Type
Gas 8p (*) Gas 8.5p
~8.2p
7.923 – 8.25
On Shore
~20% [~15000 x 3
available now for
+/- 0.8p
p/ kWh **
Wind
MW turbines]
commercial exploitation
11.49 –
Off Shore
development needed to
12.5p
20 - 40%
12.0p/ kWh
Wind
reduce costs.
+/- 2.5p
**
11p for
Hydro (mini technically mature, but
<2MW
Not Costed
5%
micro)
limited potential
projects
Photovoltaic
BIOMASS
5.0 – 12.0 p
commissioned /kWh
off **
Not Costed
Questions over sustainabilityEday9–– Sept
13p 2007
25p +/-8
<<5% even assuming
further research needed to
Open
Hydro
10 GW of installation bring down costs significantly
(13-15p)
??5%
Alstom Device seen at
Hatston April 2013
Wave/Tidal
Stream
currently < 20
technology limited MW ?? 1000 major development not
2000 MW (~0.1%)
before 2020
* Energy Review 2011 – Climate Change Committee May 2011
* Energy Generation Costs: DECC 2013 Central Projection
** FIT – CfD Auction (February 26th 2015)
19p Tidal
Not Costed
26.5p Wave
18
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Predicted Cost in 2020
Potential contribution to electricity supply in
Generation
May 2011 (*) Dec 2013
2020
and
drivers/barriers
Type
Gas 8p (*) Gas 8.5p
~8.2p
7.923 – 8.25
On Shore
~20% [~15000 x 3
available now for
Severn Barrage/ Mersey Barrages
+/- 0.8p frequently
p/ kWh **
Wind
MW turbines]
commercial exploitation
have been considered
11.49 –
Off Shore
development needed
to war12.5p
e.g. pre
– 1970s, 2009
20 - 40%
12.0p/ kWh
Wind
reduce costs.
+/2.5p
Severn Barrage could provide
** 511p
for
8%but
of UK electricity needs
Hydro (mini technically mature,
<2MW
Not Costed
5%
micro)
limited potential
In Orkney – projects
Churchill Barriers
Photovoltaic
+/-8 per annum
<<5% even assuming
further research
needed~80
to 00025p
Output
GWh
12.3p
10 GW of installation bring down costs
significantly
(13-15p)
Sufficient for 13500 houses in
-
Costed
there
are onlyNot
4000
in
9 – 13p
Orkney. Controversy in bringing
currently < 20 MW technologycables
limited
south.
19p Tidal
Wave/Tidal ?? 1000 - 2000 MW major development
not
Not
Would save26.5p
40000Wave
tonnes
ofCosted
CO2
Stream
(~0.1%)
before 2020
BIOMASS
Tidal
Barrages /
Lagoons
??5%
Orkney but
Questions over sustainability
5 - 15%
technology available but
unlikely for 2020. ??
Swansea Bay Lagoon
* Energy Review 2011 – Climate Change Committee May 2011
* Energy Generation Costs: DECC 2013 Central Projection
** FIT – CfD Auction (February 26th 2015)
26p +/-5
Not Costed
Suggested Strike Price
16.8p: Budget 2015
19
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Predicted Cost in 2020
Potential contribution to electricity supply in
Generation
May 2011 (*) Dec 2013
2020
and
drivers/barriers
Type
Gas 8p (*) Gas 8.5p
~8.2p
7.923 – 8.25
On Shore
~20% [~15000 x 3
available now for
+/- 0.8p
p/ kWh **
Wind
MW turbines]
commercial exploitation
11.49 –
Off Shore
development needed to
12.5p
20 - 40%
12.0p/ kWh
Wind
reduce costs.
+/- 2.5p
**
11p for
Hydro (mini technically mature, but
<2MW
Not Costed
5%
micro)
limited potential
projects
Photovoltaic
BIOMASS
<<5% even assuming
further research needed to
10 GW of installation bring down costs significantly
??5%
Questions over sustainability
25p +/-8
(13-15p)
9 – 13p
5.0 – 12.0 p
/kWh **
Not Costed
currently < 20 MW technology limited Wave/Tidal ?? 1000 - 2000 MW major development not 19p Tidal
Not Costed
Stream
26.5p
Wave
(~0.1%)
before 2020
Tidal
technology available but 26p +/-5
Barrages /
5 - 15%
Not Costed
unlikely
for
2020
Lagoons
unlikely for electricity generation before 2050 if then -not to be
Geothermal
confused with ground sourced heat pumps which consume electricity
* Energy Review 2011 – Climate Change Committee May 2011 ** FIT – CfD Auction (February 26th 2015)
* Energy Generation Costs: DECC 2013 Central Projection
20
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Predicted Cost in 2020
Potential contribution to electricity supply in
Generation
May 2011 (*) Dec 2013
2020
and
drivers/barriers
Type
Gas 8p (*) Gas 8.5p
~8.2p
7.923 – 8.25
On Shore
~20% [~15000 x 3
available now for
+/- 0.8p
p/ kWh **
Wind
MW turbines]
commercial exploitation
11.49 –
Off Shore
development needed to
12.5p
12.0p/ kWh
20 - 40%
Wind
reduce costs.
+/- 2.5p
**
11p
for
Hydro (mini technically mature, but
<2MW
Not Costed
5%
micro)
limited potential
projects
Photovoltaic
BIOMASS
<<5% even assuming
further research needed to
10 GW of installation bring down costs significantly
??5%
Questions over sustainability
25p +/-8
(13-15p)
9 – 13p
5.0 – 12.0 p
/kWh **
Not Costed
currently < 20 MW technology limited 19p Tidal
Wave/Tidal ??
1000
2000
MW
major
development
not
Not Costed
Stream
26.5p
Wave
(~0.1%)
before 2020
Tidal
technology available but 26p +/-5
Barrages /
5 - 15%
Not Costed
unlikely
for
2020
Lagoons
unlikely for electricity generation before 2050 if then -not to be
Geothermal
confused with ground sourced heat pumps which consume electricity
* Energy Review 2011 – Climate Change Committee May 2011 ** FIT – CfD Auction (February 26th 2015)
* Energy Generation Costs: DECC 2013 Central Projection
21
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
US-cents/kWh
Impact of Atmospheric Emissions on Generation
Costs
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Pollution Costs
Generation
coal
gas
nuclear
solar
wind
Shindell, DT (2015) Climate Change DOI 10.1007/s10584-015-1343-0
On 19th March 2015, Shindell published a paper in Climate Change where
he explored the social (mainly health) costs which are not included in
normal direct generation costs.
22
Our Choices: They are difficult
Do we want to exploit available renewables i.e onshore/offshore
wind and biomass?. Offshore Wind much more expensive. Solar
PV is now mature but also more expensive than on shore wind.
Tidal and wave are not options for next 10 - 15 years except as
demonstration projects.
[technically immature ]
If our answer is NO
Do we want to see a renewal of nuclear power ?
Are we happy with this and the other attendant risks?
If our answer is NO
Do we want to return to using coal?
• then carbon dioxide emissions will rise significantly
• unless we can develop significant carbon sequestration within
10 years UNLIKELY – confirmed by Climate Change
Committee
[9th May 2011]
If our answer to coal is NO
Do we want to leave things are they are and see continued
exploitation of gas for both heating and electricity generation?
>>>>>>
23
Our Choices: They are difficult
If our answer is YES
By 2020
• the UK will be dependent on GAS
for around 70% of our heating and electricity
The majority of which will be imported at volatile prices from
countries such as Norway, Russia, Middle East
Are we happy with this prospect? >>>>>>
If not:
We need even more substantial cuts in energy use.
Or are we prepared to sacrifice our future to effects of Global
Warming? - the North Norfolk Coal Field?
Do we wish to reconsider our stance on renewables?
Inaction or delays in decision making will lead us down the GAS
option route and all the attendant Security issues that raises.
We must take a coherent integrated approach in our decision making –
not merely be against one technology or another
24
Impact of Fracking on Electricity Supply to 2030
250
Haynesville
Eagle Ford
Woodford
Marcellus
Fayetteville
GWh/ Year
200
150
100
50
0
1
3
5
7
9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25
Years of Operation
Output declines by 95% over first 3-4 years
Total output from Fracking Well over 20 years is equivalent to
two 3 MW wind turbines
25
bcm
Estimates of Total UK Production of Fracked Gas
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
2010
DECC
EIA
Cuadrilla
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
The most optimistic scenario data from above are used
Electricity Scenario assumes
• similar split of gas use for electricity / non-electricity demand
• 5% improvement in efficiency for CCGT generation plant
• Maximum generation from Fracked gas = ~36.5 TWh by 2030
Based on Figure 3.1 in Tyndall (2011b) Report
26
Future Scenarios for Electricity Generation up to 2030
Assume Highest Projection for Fracked Gas
Future Demand – Climate Change Committee (2011) estimates
• Assuming significant growth in electricity for electric vehicles
and heat pumps
• Alternative demand – limited growth in electric vehicles and
heat pumps.
Renewable Generation
• Current Projections for Onshore and Offshore wind
• 1 million homes/year fitted with PV ~ 40% fitted by 2030
• Severn Tidal Barrage or equivalent completed by 2025
Fossil Fuel/Nuclear Generation
• Existing Nuclear / Coal Stations close as published 09/09/2013
• New Nuclear completions at one reactor per year from 2021.
• New Coal with CCS as demonstration schemes @ 300 MW per
annum from 2020 & 1000 MW per annum from mid 2020s
Gas including Fracked Gas will cover any shortfall between
DEMAND and
COAL + NUCLEAR + RENEWABLE GENERATION
27
Our looming over-dependence on gas for electricity generation
TWH (billions of units (kWh))
600
Limited electric cars or heat pumps
500
Fracked
Gas
400
Oil
Imported
Gas
UK Gas
300
Existing Coal
200
Oil
Existing Nuclear
Existing Coal
100
Offshore
Wind
Onshore
Wind
Other
Renewables
New Coal ?
Data for modelling derived from DECC & Climate Change Committee (2011)
- allowing for significant deploymentExisting
of electric
vehicles and heat pumps by 2030.New Nuclear?
Nuclear
0
1970
Data for modelling derived from DECC & Climate Change Committee (2011)
- allowing for significant deployment of electric vehicles and heat pumps by 2030.
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
Data for demand derived from DECC & Climate Change Committee (2011)
- allowing for significant deployment of electric vehicles and heat pumps 28
by 2030.
Predictability of UK Wind Generation
To what extent would variable renewables such as wind cause issues on the
secure supply of electricity?
Each bar is an hourly projection
7000
48 hour prediction
24 hour prediction
outcome
6000
5000
MW
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
00:30
2nd March 3rd March
4th March 5th March
6th March
Graph shows Wind Energy Prediction 48 and 24 hours in advance and
also actual output. Predictions are now very good
Data abstracted from BMReports Website
2nd
–
6th
March 2015
29
How Predictable is Wind Energy?
7000
Predictions made for each hour
in 2013 had a correlation of
96.48%
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
Projected output (MW)
Projections made on Day -1
8000
7000
Predictions made for each hour in
2014 had a correlation of 96.91%
Actual Output (MW)
Actual Output (MW)
Projections made on Day -1
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
Data abstracted daily from BMReports Website.
Last occurrence at 08:30 on 15th March 2015
0
0
2000
4000
6000
Projected output (MW)
30 8000
Does Wind Variability cause problems with other generation?
50000
45000
40000
35000
30000
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
06th
October 2014
To GB
From GB
GB Demand
20 22 24 2
Interconnector Flows
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
-500
-1000
-1500
Interconnector Flows (MW)
Demand (MW)
GB Electricity Demand and Interconnector Flows
4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
Time (24 hr Clock)
Data abstracted from BMReports Website at 21:30 on 6th October 2014
•
•
Net Generation in GB rises from 18941MW at 0500 to 38195MW at 0800 an
increase of 19254MW in 3 hours.
Maximum change in Wind Output in a 3 hour period on day was 2460 MW (on
31
this occasion it reduced the net generation demand change).
Variation of Load Factors over last 15 years
100
90
Load Factors for different modes of Generation
CCGT
Onshore Wind
Solar PV
Nuclear
Offshore Wind
Hydro
Coal
Wave/Tidal
Bioenergy
80
70
%
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
2010
2011
2012
Since 2012 load factors of Gas, Hydro, Onshore Wind, Offshore Wind and
Bioenergy have been comparable close to 30% Load Factor
Data abstracted from DUKES (2014) Tables 5.9 & 6.5
2013
32
Generation at the Domestic Level
Energy Generation
•
Average Daily Output
(kWh)
Solar thermal - providing hot water - most suitable for domestic
installations, hotels – generally less suitable for other businesses
6
Output
for a 1.25kW
PV( Array
• Example
2 panel
2.6 sqm ) in
Norwich
2011
2012–
generates
826kWh/year
2013
2014
2015
(average over 8 years).
5
4
•
The more hot water you use the
more solar heat you get!
•
Renewable Heat Incentive available
from 2014
3
2
1
0
Jan
•
Mar
May
Jul
Sep
Nov
Solar PV – providing
- suitable for all sizes of installation
Overallelectricity
Solar Energy Gain
kWh per day
•
•
5.0
2007
2008
4.5
2009
2010
Area
4.0 required for 1 kW peak varies from ~ 5.5 to 8.5 sqm
2011
2012
3.5
depending
on
technology
and
manufacturer
2013
2014
3.0
2.5
Approximate
annual estimate of generation
2.0
1.5
= 1.0
installed capacity * 8760 * ~ 0.11
0.5
0.0
hours in year
load/capacity factor of 11%
Jan
Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Jul
Aug Sep
Oct Nov Dec
33
Raising Awareness
• A tumble dryer uses 4 times as much energy as a washing machine.
Using it 5 times a week will cost ~ £100 a year just for this appliance
alone and emit over half a tonne of CO2.
• 10 gms of carbon dioxide has an equivalent volume
of 1 party balloon.
• A Mobile Phone charger: > 10 kWh per year
~ 500 balloons each year.
• Standby on electrical appliances
up to 20 - 150+ kWh a year - 7500 balloons. (up to £15 a year)
• A Toyota Corolla (1400cc): 1 party balloon every 60m.
•
Filling up with petrol (~£55 for a full tank – 40 litres)
At Gao’an No 1 Primary School in Xuhui District, Shanghai
--------- 90 kg of CO2
(5% of one hot air balloon)
上海徐汇区高第一小学
How far does one have to drive in a small family car (e.g. 1400 cc
Toyota Corolla) to emit as much carbon dioxide as heating an old
persons room for 1 hour?
School children at the Al Fatah University,
1.6
miles
Tripoli,
Libya
34
Current and Future Generation Costs
14 p
12 p
Effective
Renewable
Costs
ROC
banding
introduced
10 p
8p
6p
4p
2p
0p
2002
wholesale price
coal
Offshore Wind
2004
2006
2008
gas
All Renewables
Solar PV
2010
2012
2014
nuclear
Onshore Wind
Tidal Stream/Wave
2016
2018
2020
Volume Weighted Average wholesale prices over year
Effective Renewable Costs = Wholesale Price + ROC Value
35
The future is our Responsibility
In the Next 10 Years
• Energy Security and Cost issues in the UK will become just as
important as Carbon reduction and at times supply could
become critical.
• New nuclear and coal will not be available until after 2020 and
there will be an increasing dependance on imported gas at
volatile prices.
• Renewables such as Wind are now very predictable at the 24
hour time scale and can be used strategically with gas
generation for a supply which is secure and can respond to
demand.
• Currently support for renewables is less than 10% of retail
prices.
• The UK needs a diverse mix of nuclear, renewables and fossil
fuels to provide the resources to tackle the Trilema of
Climatye Change, Energy Security and the Cost of Future
Energy
36
Are there likely to be issues on security in next few years?
•
•
•
•
Closure of Nuclear Stations
Station
Type
Wylfa
Magnox
Heysham 1
AGR
Dungeness B
AGR
Heysham 2
AGR
Hartlepool
AGR
Hinkley Point B
AGR
Hunterston B
AGR
Torness
AGR
Sizewell B
PWR
Capacity
Started
490
1971
2 x 580
1983/4
2 x 545
1983/5
2 x 615
1988
2 x 595
1983/4
2 x 610 (430)
1976
2 x 610 (430)
1976/7
2 x 625
1988/9
1188
1995
Closure*
2015
2019
2028
2023
2024
2023
2023
2023
2035
Hinkley Point B and Hunterston are down rated at 70%.
Heysham 1, Hinkley Point B, Hartlepool, and Hunterston have all been
affected by cracking which may mean up to 4 units out of action until
end of December
pose questions on extended lives indicated above.
* World Nuclear Association – September 2014
37
Are there likely to be issues on security in next few years?
•
Closure of Coal/Oil Stations
Coal
Cockenzie
Didcot A
Ironbridge
Kingsnorth
Tilbury
Oil
Fawley
Grain
Littlebrook D
Capacity
(GW)
1.2
2
1.0
2
1.1
1
1.4
1.1
Scheduled Closure
By end of 2015
or before if 20000
hours running since 1st
Jan 2008 has been
exceeded
Actual Closure
March 2013
March 2013
End 2015
March 2013
October 2013
March 2013
December 2012
March 2015
Above stations opted out of the Large Combustion Plant Directive and must
close by end of 2015 at latest.
On October 6th 2014 – an announced was made that Longannet (2.23 GW)
38
may also close in 2017 even though it complies with the LCPD
Are there likely to be issues on security in next few years?
Strategies being taken by National Grid
Demand Side Balancing Reserve (DSBR)
Providing opportunity for large industrial consumers to shed load
between period 32 (i.e. 16:00hrs) and period 40 (20:00 hours) over the
Triad Period November to February.
Consumers will be paid for such action.
Planned reduction of 570MW for 2014/15 (or ~ 1% of peak demand)
And 1140MW for 2015/16
Modelling of impact has been done on the basis of the Value of Lost Load
payments at £17 per kWh – implying total payments of up to £1.15 M per
day over the Triad Period
Supplementary Balancing Reserve (SBR) provision is also planned
– i.e having plant which have been mothballed or closed available for
providing capacity.
39
The future is our Responsibility
We must take a coherent integrated approach in our
decision making on energy – both on supply and
demand.
We must promote Energy Conservation and develop
a coherent generation mix to provide a low carbon,
energy secure and affordable future, not only for
electricity but also for heat and transport.
And Finally
Keith Tovey (杜伟贤)
“If you do not change direction, you
may end up where you are heading.”
Lao Tzu (604-531 BC) Chinese Artist and Taoist philosopher
40