Tuesday July 21st, 2015
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China
◦ Focus on economic development first
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Mexico
◦ Focus on political development first (currently,
anyway)
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India
◦ Mixed focus on politics and economy
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Mali
◦ From stable to democracy to pseudo-civil war
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The world’s largest population (est. 1.35 bn) and
third largest by area
It will in a relatively short period of time overtake
the US as the world’s largest economy
An emerging world power, permanent
membership on the UN Security Council
Has demonstrated significant economic growth
for an extended period of time, transitioning
hundreds of million of citizens out of poverty.
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Single-party socialist state
◦ Chinese Communist Party
◦ Also a republic – no monarch
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Power primarily rests in the hand of the President
Text notes three levels of government, with
power at the federal, provincial and municipal
levels. While nominally true, power rests such
that the provincial and municipal powers could
be removed without much trouble.
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The head of the Communist party (general
secretary) is usually the President
Theoretically, President’s legislative and
executive power as Head of Government is
shared with the National People’s Congress and
the State Council
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It is the Politburo that practically acts as the
cabinet and makes decisions with the President
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8 parties other than the CCP exist, though they
are basically puppet parties
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A Chinese Empire can, effectively be traced back
to 2100 BCE, making it among the oldest and
(easily) longest lasting in the world
◦ Strong central government, authoritarian rule
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Imperial era effectively ends by 1912
◦ Armed uprising leads to civil war between the Chinese
Communists and the Kuomintang
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Zedong’s People’s Liberation Army would
become the dominant alternative to the
Kuomintang.
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Japanese invasion of China during WW2 undercut
the reputation of the Kuomintang
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While the civil war was put aside during WW2, it
resumed shortly thereafter.
◦ Zedong’s PLA would win the war by 1949
◦ The Kuomintang fled to Taiwan
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Zedong’s economic policies resulted in
significant growth in the Chinese economy
through 1976
◦ Other tactics resulted in massive casualties due to
starvation, political arrests and concentration camps
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Towards the end of Zedong’s rule, a relatively
sharp division in the Communist movement
emerged between pragmatists and
revolutionaries
Pragmatists would win out, though a split
developed there too between quick capitalistic
transition or slower transition
Functionally, the idea of China as a communist
state ended in the 1970s
◦ Though still strongly authoritarian
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Pluralism: Multiple places of power in a state
National People’s Congress as a chamber of
dissent?
Within the party, maintaining a regional and
governmental power base is necessary to
ensure continued influence
◦ internalized accountability in the CCP
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Decentralization of economic planning in the
1970s is first step toward economic
liberalization
◦ Production quotas still required, but surplus could
be sold at market rates
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The 1990s saw the Introduction of Special
Economic Zones: Areas where government
intervention is significantly limited, greater
foreign investment
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Population growth and growing wealth
One of world’s fastest growing economies,
but has slowed down somewhat recently
CCP rule is predicated on improving
standards of living – if those slow down, what
is the long-term viability of single-party rule?
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Human Rights
◦ But maybe not why you think
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Wealth distribution and continued growth
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The rise of non-Chinese nationalism?
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Relationship with the US
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The environment?
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While, realistically, a democracy, marked by long
periods of single-party rule
Presidential system (traditionally a strong
president)
◦ Power split with Congress, which is growing in power
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Considered a NIC
◦ Been on the cusp of being “developed” numerous times
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High levels of inequality
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Long European history
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Provided Spain significant wealth
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Gained independence in 1821
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War with US and secession of Texas sent Mexican state
into crisis
◦ The wealth has proven difficult for Mexico to retain for itself
◦ Early history defined by weak presidents
◦ Led to harsh dictatorship (though economic strength)
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Zapata revolution in early 1900s led to democratic
institutions (but 70 years of 1 party rule)
◦ Itself a bit authoritarian in style
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Federal system, powers balanced (horizontally)
between president and congress – in theory
Vertical power split with states and District of
Mexico City, though most power, until recently
has resided at the centre
◦ Municipalities have some powers too, but funding
dependent on higher levels of government (similar to
Canada)
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States are not well unified, as there are massive
differences in wealth across states
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Presidents are head of state and given
significant powers in the constitution
◦ Presidential dominance
◦ Presidents directly responsible for most laws
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Until the 1980s, presidents were able to
change the law easily, as one party dominate
◦ Constitution too, requires consent of 2/3rds of the
congress
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Popular election and six year terms
◦ Since 2012: Enrique Pena Nieto
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Two main parties: Institutional Revolutionary
Party (PRI) and National Action Party (PAN)
◦ PRI in power: 1930-2000; 2012◦ PAN in power 2000-2012
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Congress and Senate, like the US, but
generally very well unified until recently
◦ In 1990s, for the first time, the dominant party in
the legislature and presidency were different
◦ Significant gridlock with the president’s party not
holding a majority in the legislature
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Counting votes can be an adventure
The Federal Electoral Institute, since 1988, has
worked to become a well-respected, independent
electoral commission.
2006 saw a series of mistakes, attempted fraud,
missing ballot boxes and claims of misbehaviour
by IFE
Seems to have regained reputation in last
election, but still accusations of vote-buying
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Mexico has both a strong resource economy and
tourist economy
◦ Or it would if there was less corruption
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State-run economy for much of the 20th C
◦ Nationalization of major resource companies throughout
the 60s and 70s (combined with significant lending)
◦ On the cusp of developed status before major downturn
in the 1980s
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Significant liberalization with NAFTA
◦ Fell into another recession in the 1990s (IMF Bailout)
◦ Lost competitive advantage relative to China and India
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Massive violence due to war on drugs
◦ Kidnappings and corrupt government officials
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Movement of people across the US better
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NAFTA and manufacturing
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Long-term development depends on limiting
political and economic corruption and much
of the violence in the state.
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The world’s largest democracy, 2nd largest
state on earth
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Significant diversity within the state
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Becoming a global economic force
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There has been political, ethnic and religious
violence
◦ In part because of colonial past
◦ In part because of political failures
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Ancient civilization
◦ Dominant religious texts traced back to 1700 BCE
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Numerous wars for empire both local and
international
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British Empire formalizes control over the
subcontinent in the 1800s
◦ previously through British East India Company
◦ While high levels of investment (railroads and
resource development), significant human rights
abuses, repressive government
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Massive commitment to WW1
Indian National Congress, in its aftermath, arose
under the leadership of Nehru and Gandhi
◦ Non-violent movement
◦ Though British soon recognized inevitability of
independence, did not arrive until 1947
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Partition of India and Pakistan, at independence
led to a massive migration between states
◦ Significant amount of deaths due to violence and
inadequate state response to refugees
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Dominion from 1947-1950
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Secular, democratic, parliamentary republic
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◦ In this time, creating the constitution
Its constitution was important in the post-war
period, explicitly limiting the government’s
power and protecting individual rights
Federal system: Indirectly elected president
◦ Presidential powers are strong in the constitution, but
dependent on the Prime Minister and Cabinet (Council of
Ministers)
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Two houses of parliament:
◦ Rajya Sabha (Council of States) – 6 year terms,
state legislature-appointed
◦ Lok Sabha (Assembly of the People) – 543 members
popularly elected (currently 2 appointed), can sit up
to 5 years
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Major Parties:
◦ INC, BJP and the United Progressive Alliance
◦ Current PM Narendra Modi (2014- )
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Immediately after independence, issues of
poverty, infrastructure, little advanced industry
and limited financial capabilities
Sought development through socialist
mechanisms
◦ High levels of government intervention in the economy
◦ High tariffs
◦ Nationalization of industries
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Major leaders in the non-aligned movement
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1991 saw the government switch tact and
move towards a liberal economic ideology
◦ Cutting red tape, tariffs and opening markets has
led to long-term, significant economic development
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Currently 11th largest economy, will be third
in the not-too distant future
◦ Strong textile, pharma and service industries
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Vastly inequitable development
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Population growth
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Religious tension
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Continued existence of the caste system
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Transition between the modern and traditional
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Regional tensions, economic and territorial
◦ Significant poverty contrasted with growing wealth
◦ As population continues to grow, government has trouble
implementing effective social safety net, hugely expensive
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Currently facing a civil war:
◦ Islamic rebels hold much of the North of the state
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Previously among the most stable
democracies in all of Africa, throughout the
1990s
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Development is not linear
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Colonialism implications still manifest
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Part of Ghanaian Empire until 13th century
◦ Would become dominant by the 14th century with the
rise of the Mali Empire
◦ Later succumb to the Songhai Empire
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Controlled Saharan trade
◦ Economy based on gold, copper and the slave trade
◦ Drought, famine and conflict led to decline
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Late 19th Century, became a colony of France
◦ Human rights abuses, arbitrary borders
◦ Dislocation of local economy, for cash crops
◦ Slavery
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1959, independence movement begins, achieve
success by June 1960
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Republic of Mali had a socialist bent and immediately
allied with Soviet Union
◦ Despite centrally planned economy, poverty was not
improved under socialists
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Military Coup in 1968, transitioned to a repressive
one party state
Economic pressure and popular democratic
movements led to another military coup in 1991 and
democratic government by 1992
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Colonialism led to a broad collection of
ethnicities and languages in the state
Population has quadrupled since 1960, young
state
◦ Poor healthcare and relatively high violence means
short life expectancy
◦ Poor, ranked 175th of 187 on HDI
◦ Population, on average, lives on $1.25/day
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Constitution instituted in 1992, democratic,
semi-presidential, republic
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President is a strong position
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National Assembly: 160 seats popularly elected
(five year term)
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Eight major political parties
◦ Two term limit, five year terms
◦ Head of State and Commander-in-chief
◦ Prime Minister (the head of government) is appointed by
the President
◦ Ethnic, regional, religious or gendered parties are illegal
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Presidential power has resulted in election issues
◦ The 1997 election resulted in a boycott by major
political parties
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Violence in the North of the state has been
consistent since the early 1990s
Violence increased after President Toure was reelected in 2007
◦ Military overthrew the president due to poor handling of
the problem, though this just made things worse
◦ A new president was appointed by the constitutional
court, though they were also deposed by the military
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With France’s help, Mali retook control of much
of the North, but the process was damaging to
the flow of food and aid to the area
◦ Still consistent rebel attacks in the rural areas
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Commodity boom means that economic
development may be at hand
Vulnerable to booms and busts
◦ High levels of inequality
◦ Political instability (lots of authoritarian tendencies)
◦ Low levels of human security