Public Opinion and
Polling
Unit 3
AP Government
Public Opinion
• Public Opinion:
“The opinions held by private persons
which government feels it prudent to
heed”
Who are the “Public” in Public
Opinion Polls??
1. The Elite
– Those with
disproportionate amount of
political resources.
– They raise issues and help
set national agenda.
– They influence the
resolution of issues.
2. The Attentives:
– Those with an active
interest in government and
politics
3. The Masses
– Those with little interest in
government and politics.
Understanding Public Opinion
• Most of the American
public shows little
awareness and interest
in politics.
• Surveys show
substantial lack of
political knowledge on
part of public:
– Identifying political figures
– Identifying key issues
Important Questions to Ponder
• Who is in charge of
creating policy?
• How does Public Opinion
Become Policy?
• Are there politics
involved?
• How is reliable
information gathered?
• To whom should the
“government” listen to?
How is Public Opinion
Measured?
• By elections
• By Polls
How is Public Opinion
Measured?
• By elections
– Initiatives (allow citizens to propose legislation and
submit it to popular vote.)
– Referendums (allows legislatures to submit proposed
legislation for popular approval.)
– Party positions on issues
• By Polls
– By straw polls
• Unscientific surveys used to gauge public opinions
– By scientific polls
• Uses representative sampling methods
Problems with these Methods
• Elections
– Not accurate because only voters participate
– More in Unit 4!
• Polling
– By straw polls
• No sampling makes them NOT accurate
– By scientific polls
• Most are accurate but will have margin of error
which can mislead in close races
Four Uses of Scientific Polls
•
•
•
•
Inform the public.
Inform candidates.
Inform office-holders.
Make election night
predictions.
1st Public Opinion Poll
• The first public opinion research goes back to
July 24, 1824 (For Presidential Election)
• The Harrisburg Pennsylvanian issued a report of
a straw vote done at Wilmington, Del., "without
discrimination of parties."
–
–
–
–
Andrew Jackson received 335 votes
John Quincy Adams, 169 votes
Henry Clay, 19 votes
William H. Crawford, 9 votes
So…Who won in November??
The Gallup Poll
• Dr. George Gallup predicted
the outcome of the 1936
presidential election as a
victory of Roosevelt over
Landon with an error of 6.8
percent.
– His method was known as
“quota" sampling
• Thereafter Gallup gained
fame and his scientific
method became prevalent in
polling.
The Gallup Poll
• Gallup made an error in
predicting the 1948
presidential election
– The prediction that Thomas
Dewey would defeat Harry
Truman by anywhere from five
to fifteen percentage points in
1948.
– When Truman actually won by
more than four percentage
points, Gallup and polling was
under attack.
“New” Polling Methods
• In the 1956 election,
Gallup abandoned
"quota" sampling, and
switched to a new
method using random
samplings
• Random or probability
sampling occurs when
everyone in population
being surveyed has an
equal chance to be
sampled
• Much more accurate
How is a Scientific Poll Created?
• Define the “universe” (the population to be
measured)
– National polls typically require 1000-2000
respondents.
– Sampling error: The margin of error is
expressed in +/- terms.
• Can reduce sampling error by adding more
respondents
– In other words…Take random samples
WHERE everyone has an equal chance of
being included
• Example: Home Room v AP Government classes
Different Types of Scientific Polls
– Telephone
• Random calls
– In-Person
• Door-to-door, surveys in
malls, shopping centers,
movie theatres, and “man
on the street”
questionnaires
– Exit Polls
• Taken after elections when
voters “exit” the polling
place
– Tracking Polls
•
Shows results of an issue
over time
Problems of Polling
– Telephone
• Does not include cell phones
– In-Person
• Who stops in the Mall or opens doors
these days???
– Exit Polls
• Who stops to talk to pollsters after
elections?
– 2004 election
– Tracking
• Taken out of context they make no more sense
than a single frame from a movie.
Abuses of Polls
• “Horse race” mentality emphasized during
campaigns at expense of issues.
– No real story…just what the polls say
• In a horse race world, horse race polls can tell
you who’s ahead but not why.
– Example: “The strategies range from Rep. Richard A.
Gephardt’s one-state last stand in Iowa to Sen. Joseph I.
Lieberman’s rapid-fire attacks on Dean to retired Army Gen.
Wesley K. Clark’s national campaign on electability. All of them
depend on Dean stumbling during the Jan. 19 Iowa caucuses and
the New Hampshire primary the following week.”
• This use of polls panders to candidates and
office-holders.
Push Poll Questions
• Questions that are deliberately phrased to give
information to public
• Usually negative
– Would you be more or less likely to support Doug
Goehring if you knew he was against ethanol and
didn't support farmers?
– Would you be more or less likely to support Doug
Goehring if you knew he was head of Nodak Mutual
when it was under state investigation and that the
state had to take it over because of his leadership?
The Most Famous Push Poll
Question
• Voters in South Carolina reportedly were asked
before the 2000 Republican primary:
– "Would you be more likely or less likely to
vote for John McCain for president if you
knew he had fathered an illegitimate black
child?”
– The allegation had no substance, but planted
the idea of undisclosed allegations in the
minds of thousands of primary voters.
• McCain and his wife had in fact adopted a Bangladeshi girl.)
The Newest Push Poll Tactic-
The Robo-Call
• The Obama campaign has released a recording (mp3) it
says came from a Nevadan's answering machine of an
anonymous robocall that criticizes Obama for taking
money from special interests while repeating, four times,
his rarely used middle name: "Hussein."
• "I'm calling with some important information about Barack
Hussein Obama," the call begins, before saying
that "Barack Hussein Obama says he doesn't take
money from Washington lobbyists or special interest
groups but the record is clear that he does."
• After mentioning his full name once more, the call
concludes:
• "You just can't take a chance on Barack Hussein Obama.“
http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0108/Robocall_trashes_Barack_
Hussein_Obama.html
New Rule Prohibiting Unwanted "Robocalls"
Takes Effect on September 1, 2009
• The Federal Trade Commission will now prohibit
prerecorded commercial telemarketing calls to
consumers unless the telemarketer has obtained
permission in writing from consumers who want to
receive such calls.
• Calls not covered by the TSR include:
– Those from politicians, banks, telephone carriers, and most
charitable organizations
– The new prohibition on prerecorded messages does not apply to
certain healthcare messages.
– The new rule prohibits telemarketing robocalls to consumers
whether or not they previously have done business with the seller.
Creating an Accurate Poll
• You must have:
– Carefully Worded Questions
• No bias and clearly differentiated alternatives
• A poll that actually seeks the truth
• Not “Advocacy” and ‘Push Polls’ which try to
influence the outcome
• Look for reliable pollsters- not party polls
– Remember…
• Polls are just a snapshot and may be wrong!!!
– Example- 2004 Exit Polls and Election of 1948
Optional Public Opinion Project*
• You will create a political survey alone or with a
small group. (Can be for SEG 3 or SEG 4)
– One Person- Create a survey of 3 questions about
same topic
– Small Group (2-5 people) - Create a survey of 10
questions about 2-5 topics
– Please be specific- yes/no questions are easiest!
• Example:
– “Do you believe gay marriage should be legal in the
United States?”
Full Details on my Blog
http://waltonhigh.typepad.com/ms_boyd/
**Please see me for question approval.
Public Opinion
• Read Chapter 11!