What Constitutes a Democracy: A
Comparative Analysis
Andrei Melville, Yuri Polunin, Mikhail Ilyin,
Mikhail Mironyuk, Elena Meleshkina, Ivan Timofeev
Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMOUniversity), Institute for Public Programming, “Expert”
magazine
Please do not quote without permission of the authors
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DIFFERENT APPROACHES TO COMPARATIVE
ANALYSIS & EVALUATION OF POLITICAL SYSTEMS
AND REGIMES
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Ted Robert Gurr et al.: POLITY II, POLITY III, POLITY IV (Indicators of
Democracy and Autocracy)
Tatu Vanhanen: Index of Democratization (Competition & Participation)
Freedom House: Political Rights & Civil Liberties
Bertelsmann Stiftung & BTI Board Bertelsmann: Transformation Index
Transparency International: Corruption Perception Index, Global
Corruption Barometer
A.T. Kearney & Foreign Policy Magazine: Globalization Index
The Fund for Peace & Foreign Policy Magazine: Failed States Index
Journalists without Borders: Press Freedom Index
Cato Institute: Economic Freedom of the World
UNDP: Human Development Report
World Economic Forum: Global Competitiveness Report
World Bank research projects
etc.
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POLITICAL ATLAS OF THE WORLD
Project of MGIMO-University and “Expert” magazine
Director of the project - Andrei Melville
Co-Director (mathematics and statistics) - Yuri Polunin
Consultants - Mikhail Ilyin, Elena Meleshkina, Tatyana
Alexeeva, Victor Sergeev, Oxana Kharitonova
Deputy Director - Mikhail Mironyuk
Deputy Co-Director (mathematics and statistics) –
Ivan Timofeev
50 country experts, assistants, editors, etc.
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STRUCTURE OF THE PROJECT
3 tracks:
(1) Encyclopedia of Political Systems of the World
(2) Multi-dimensional Indices and Ratings of 192 (+)
countries
(3) Multi-dimensional classification of 192 (+)
countries and analytical reports
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ASSUMPTIONS
• Multi-dimensional comparative analysis and
evaluation – vs. – one-dimensional
• Complex variables
• Statistical databases (UN, UNESCO, World
Bank, WTO, International Health Organization,
SIPRI, Inter-Parliamentary Union, national
statistics, national constitutions and laws, etc.)
• Quantification of qualitative information
• Statistical analysis (regression, correlation,
factorial, discriminant, etc. types of analysis)
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5 INDICES
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Index of state consistency
Index of international influence
Index of national threats
Index of institutional foundations of
democracy
• Quality of life index
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SOURCES OF DATA
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UN, UNDP, UNESCO, FAO, WHO, UNAIDS
World Bank (World Development Indicators)
IMF
WTO
WIPO
SIPRI
Inter-Parliamentary Union
National Constitutions and Laws
Heidelberg Institute for International Conflict Research
Center for Systemic Peace
Federation of American Scientists
Political Handbook of the World (Congressional Quarterly
Press)
• Encyclopaedia Britannica
• National statistics, etc.
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SPSS data base
(for multi-dimensional indices and ratings)
192 countries (+)
70 variables
13,400 figures
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INDEX OF STATE CONSISTENCY
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Duration of sovereign stateness
Foreign aid, % of GNI
Indebtedness
Foreign military presence/deployment in the
country
Casualties of internal conflicts
Regions involved in internal conflicts
Intensity of internal conflicts
Applications for patents by residents – vs.
applications by non-residents
Ethnic composition (share of ethnic majority)
Exchange rate regimes
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INDEX OF INTERNATIONAL INFLUENCE
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Share of world GDP
Share of world goods and services exports
Contribution to the UN regular budget
IMF member’s voting power
Membership in the Paris club (official
creditors)
• Permanent membership in the UN Security
Council
• Share of world population
• Nobel prize winners
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INDEX OF INTERNATIONAL INFLUENCE (cont.)
• Military expenditure (in constant US
dollars)
• Armed forces personnel
• Nuclear weapons
• Advanced military systems
• Military deployments abroad
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INDEX OF NATIONAL THREATS
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Threats of external aggression
Terrorist threats (from abroad or within)
Territorial disputes
Separatist and/or antigovernment activities
Nonviolent secessionist movements
Military governments or attempts of military coups
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INDEX OF NATIONAL THREATS (cont.)
• Undiversified exports (one or two primary export
commodities)
• Constant trade deficit
• Dependence on fuel imports
• Probability of natural disasters
• Water shortage
• Undernourishment and famine
• Depopulation
• Excessive migration
• HIV/AIDS epidemic
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INDEX OF INSTITUTIONAL FOUNDATIONS OF
DEMOCRACY
• Parliamentary elections competition
• Head of the executive elections competition
• Duration of an uninterrupted minimal
competition tradition (since 1945)
• Electoral inclusiveness (share of registered
voters to total population)
• Share of women in parliament (lower
chamber)
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INDEX OF INSTITUTIONAL FOUNDATIONS OF
DEMOCRACY (cont.)
• Performance of democratic institutions
- no military coups or unconstitutional regime changes
- not more than two terms held by the head of
state/executive (former and acting)
- no referendum to extend term for the head of
state/executive
- competitive elections without interruption
- influence of parliament on the appointment of the
government
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QUALITY OF LIFE INDEX
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Life expectancy at birth
Death rate (combined)
Infant mortality
GDP per capita
Combined gross enrolment ratio for
primary, secondary and tertiary schools
• Public health expenditure per capita
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5 indices:
an experiment with discriminant analysis
• Samples of countries for discriminant analysis
• Countries’ rankings
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Index of state consistency
Countries in the sample for discriminant analysis
• Sufficient state consistency:
Australia, Austria, Brazil, Canada, China, Egypt, Finland, France,
Germany, Iran, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Poland, Russia, South Africa,
Sweden, Switzerland, UK, USA
• Insufficient state consistency:
Afghanistan, Angola, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Burundi, the Central
African Republic, Chad, the Democratic Republic Congo, Ethiopia,
Georgia, Haiti, Iraq, Kyrgyzstan, Mauritania, Moldova, Nepal,
Rwanda, Serbia and Montenegro (prior to dissolution), Somalia,
Sudan, Tajikistan
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Index of state consistency (0 - 10): examples
Country
Group
Index
Rank
USA
Sufficient state consistency
10
1
Japan
Sufficient state consistency
9,34
2
Germany
Sufficient state consistency
8,93
4
Korea (South)
Sufficient state consistency
8,53
8
China
Sufficient state consistency
8,24
12
Argentina
Sufficient state consistency
8,07
17
Russia
Sufficient state consistency
7,5
27
South Africa
Sufficient state consistency
7,35
30
Saudi Arabia
Sufficient state consistency
6,99
41
Iran
Sufficient state consistency
6,97
43
Hungary
Sufficient state consistency
6,88
45
Indonesia
Sufficient state consistency
5,84
67
India
Sufficient state consistency
5,42
81
Korea (North)
Insufficient state consistency
5,01
98
Ukraine
Insufficient state consistency
4,35
113
Ethiopia
Insufficient state consistency
2,66
154
Central African Republic
Insufficient state consistency
0,81
188
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Index of international influence
Countries in the sample for discriminant analysis
• Relatively high influence
Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India,
Indonesia, Iran, Israel, Italy, Japan, Mexico, the Netherlands,
Pakistan, Russia, South Africa, Turkey, UK
• Relatively low influence
Afghanistan, Bolivia, Botswana, Congo, Estonia, Georgia, Iceland,
Kyrgyzstan, Laos, Liberia, Malawi, Mongolia, Namibia, Paraguay,
Rwanda, Slovenia, Somalia, Uruguay, the Zambia
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Index of international influence (0 - 10): examples
Country
Group
Index
Rank
USA
Relatively high influence
10,00
1
China
Relatively high influence
3,93
2
Japan
Relatively high influence
3,25
3
Germany
Relatively high influence
3,24
4
Russia
Relatively high influence
2,60
7
India
Relatively high influence
2,28
8
Saudi Arabia
Relatively high influence
1,69
10
Korea (North)
Relatively high influence
1,25
12
Korea (South)
Relatively high influence
1,02
16
Iran
Relatively low influence
0,83
20
Indonesia
Relatively low influence
0,81
22
Ukraine
Relatively low influence
0,59
29
Argentina
Relatively low influence
0,56
31
South Africa
Relatively low influence
0,49
34
Hungary
Relatively low influence
0,29
53
Ethiopia
Relatively low influence
0,22
62
Central African Republic
Relatively low influence
0,02
160
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Index of national threats
Countries in the sample for discriminant analysis
• Relatively high level of threats
Afghanistan, Angola, Bangladesh, Burkina-Faso, Cambodia,
Chad, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, Georgia,
India, Iran, Iraq, Lebanon, Liberia, Myanmar, Niger, Philippines,
Somalia, Tajikistan, the Zambia.
• Relatively low level of threats
Argentina, Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, the Czech
Republic, Denmark, Finland, Germany, Ireland, the Netherlands,
Norway, Qatar, Singapore, South Africa, Sweden, Switzerland,
UK, the United Arab Emirates, Uruguay.
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Index of national threats (0 - 10): examples
Country
Group
Index
Rank
Ethiopia
Relatively high threats
10,00
1
Central African Republic
Relatively high threats
7,57
10
India
Relatively high threats
5,99
44
Indonesia
Relatively high threats
5,99
45
Iran
Relatively high threats
5,34
57
Korea (North)
Relatively high threats
4,89
68
China
Relatively high threats
4,48
78
Russia
Relatively high threats
4,34
81
Korea (South)
Relatively high threats
4,28
82
Japan
Relatively low threats
4,03
87
Saudi Arabia
Relatively low threats
3,63
101
USA
Relatively low threats
3,06
118
South Africa
Relatively low threats
2,37
136
Ukraine
Relatively low threats
2,27
141
Argentina
Relatively low threats
2,07
146
Hungary
Relatively low threats
1,02
172
Germany
Relatively low threats
0,77
181
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Index of institutional foundations of democracy
Countries in the sample for discriminant analysis
• Sufficient institutional foundations
Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Chile, Costa-Rica, Cyprus,
the Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany,
Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Lithuania, the Netherlands, New
Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia,
Switzerland, UK, USA.
• Insufficient institutional foundations
Angola, Bahrain, Belarus, Cameroon, China, Congo, Cuba,
Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Haiti, Iran, Ivory Coast, Jordan, Korea
(North), Laos, Libya, Myanmar, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Somalia,
Sudan, Syria, Turkmenistan, the United Arab Emirates,
Uzbekistan, Vietnam, Zimbabwe.
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Index of institutional foundations of democracy (0-10):
examples
Country
Group
Index
Rank
Austria
Sufficient institutional foundations
8,09
9
India
Sufficient institutional foundations
7,35
16
USA
Sufficient institutional foundations
7,3
18
Hungary
Sufficient institutional foundations
6,94
28
Argentina
Sufficient institutional foundations
6,91
29
Korea (South)
Sufficient institutional foundations
6,62
34
Ukraine
Sufficient institutional foundations
6,46
42
Japan
Sufficient institutional foundations
6,46
43
Indonesia
Sufficient institutional foundations
5,44
86
Russia
Sufficient institutional foundations
5,24
93
South Africa
Sufficient institutional foundations
5,23
94
Ethiopia
Insufficient institutional foundations
4,03
124
Central African Republic
Insufficient institutional foundations
3,2
139
Iran
Insufficient institutional foundations
1,76
161
China
Insufficient institutional foundations
0,69
178
Korea (North)
Insufficient institutional foundations
0,68
179
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Quality of life index
Countries in the sample for discriminant analysis
• Relatively high quality of life
Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Finland, France,
Germany, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, New
Zealand, Norway, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, UK, USA.
• Relatively low quality of life
Angola, Benin, Burkina-Faso, Burundi, the Central African Republic,
Chad, Dominican Republic, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Guinea-Bissau, Ivory
Coast, Malawi, Mali, Mozambique, Niger, Rwanda, Sierra Leone,
Tanzania, the Zambia, Zimbabwe.
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Quality of life index (0 - 10): examples
Country
Group
Index
Rank
USA
Relatively high quality
6,53
5
Japan
Relatively high quality
6,05
14
Germany
Relatively high quality
5,55
22
Korea (South)
Relatively high quality
4,66
33
Hungary
Relatively high quality
3,80
43
Argentina
Relatively high quality
3,58
46
Saudi Arabia
Relatively low quality
3,21
56
Russia
Relatively low quality
2,68
73
Iran
Relatively low quality
2,49
85
China
Relatively low quality
2,35
95
Ukraine
Relatively low quality
2,20
101
South Africa
Relatively low quality
2,00
111
Indonesia
Relatively low quality
1,86
116
India
Relatively low quality
1,60
125
Korea (North)
Relatively low quality
1,46
131
Ethiopia
Relatively low quality
0,33
186
Central African Republic
Relatively low quality
0,00
192
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CORRELATIONS BETWEEN INDICES
• General trends
• Deviations
• Anomalies
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CORRELATIONS BETWEEN INDICES
Index of
state
consistency
Index of
national
threats
Index of
institutional
foundations of
democracy
Index of
internatio
nal
influence
Quality of
life index
Index of state
consistency
1,000
-0,627
0,465
0,761
0,581
Index of national
threats
-0,627
1,000
-0,534
-0,813
-0,166
Index of
institutional
foundations of
democracy
0,465
-0,534
1,000
0,570
0,156
Quality of
life index
0,761
-0,813
0,570
1,000
0,321
Influence and
involvement
index
0,581
-0,166
0,156
0,321
1,000
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30
31
32
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CORRELATIONS WITH OTHER INDICES
Index of
Institutional
foundations of
democracy
Index of
Institutional
foundations of
democracy
Polity IV
ID
(Vanhanen)
Political
rights (FH)
Civil
liberties
(FH)
1,000
0,844
0,839
-0,817
-0,810
Polity IV
0,844
1,000
0,813
-0,903
-0,885
ID (Vanhanen)
0,839
0,813
1,000
-0,803
-0,801
Political rights (FH)
-0,817
-0,903
-0,803
1,000
0,951
Civil liberties (FH)
-0,810
-0,885
-0,801
0,951
1,000
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CORRELATIONS WITH OTHER INDICES (cont.)
HDI
Quality of life index
0,931
36
RUSSIA AND THE WORLD
1. Considerable level of state consistency
• Russia is in # 27 rank of the State consistency
index after China (12), Italy (18), Belgium (25).
• Leaders are USA (1), Japan (2), Germany (4),
France (7).
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RUSSIA AND THE WORLD
2. Profound international influence
• Russia is # 7 (after USA, China, Japan, Germany,
France and UK and ahead of India, Italy, Canada,
Brazil).
• 11 leaders of the rating are G8 + China and India
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RUSSIA AND THE WORLD
3. Moderate national threats
• Russia is in # 81 rank of the national threats
index together with Israel and South Korea.
• Russia faces a variety of national threats
(terrorism, territorial disputes, undiversified
exports, depopulation, HIV/AIDS epidemic, etc.)
• Russia is surrounded by a wide zone of
countries with grave national threats
(Afghanistan, Iran, Iraq, North Korea, Azerbaijan,
India, etc.)
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RUSSIA AND THE WORLD
4. Fairly average institutional foundations of
democracy
• Russia is # 93 (lower than Peru but higher than
South Africa)
• Leaders of the rating are Switzerland, Canada,
Netherlands, Denmark and Norway; USA are # 18.
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RUSSIA AND THE WORLD
5. Average quality of life
• Russia is # 73 (Bulgaria, Brazil, Mexico, etc.)
• Leaders of the rating are Luxembourg, Ireland,
Norway, USA, Iceland, Australia, etc.)
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An experiment with factor analysis
• Searching for the principle components
• Presentation of countries in the components’ space
• Analysis of structures, composed by countries in the
components’ space
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Principle components and their explanatory
potential
Component
Cumulative %
1
55,366
2
81,752
3
93,039
4
100,000
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5 indices in the components’ space (components 1 and 2)
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Countries in the components’ space (components 1 and 2)
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