NEESR-GC: Seismic Risk
Management for Port Systems
Glenn J. Rix
Georgia Institute of Technology
U.S. Waterborne Trade
900
800
$ Billion
Introduction
Systems View
Experimental
Simulation
Numerical
Simulation
Port Operations
EOT
EAB
Impacts
700
600
500
400
1990
2003
Source: Bureau of Transportation Statistics (2004)
U.S. Waterborne Trade
100
80
Percent
Introduction
Systems View
Experimental
Simulation
Numerical
Simulation
Port Operations
EOT
EAB
Impacts
77.5
60
Value
Weight
40.9
40
28.4
26.4
21.8
20
4.3
0.4
0
Land
Water
Air
0.3
Other
Source: Bureau of Transportation Statistics (2004)
Introduction
Systems View
Experimental
Simulation
Numerical
Simulation
Port Operations
EOT
EAB
Impacts
Top 10 U.S. Container Ports
Seattle (4%)
Tacoma (4%)
New York (13%)
Oakland (5%)
Norfolk (5%)
Los Angeles (20%)
Charleston (6%)
Savannah (5%)
Long Beach (16%)
Houston (5%)
Source: Bureau of Transportation Statistics (2006)
Introduction
Systems View
Experimental
Simulation
Numerical
Simulation
Port Operations
EOT
EAB
Impacts
Seismic Hazard
Seattle
Tacoma
New York
Oakland
Norfolk
Los Angeles
Charleston
Savannah
Long Beach
Houston
Introduction
Systems View
Experimental
Simulation
Numerical
Simulation
Port Operations
EOT
EAB
Impacts
Current Practice
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“Minimal damage” and “no downtime” for
ground motions with 50% probability of
exceedance in 50 years
“Repairable/controllable damage” and
“acceptable downtime” for ground motions with
10% probability of exceedance in 50 years
Vaguely defined performance requirements
Focus is on individual components
No direct consideration of business
interruption losses
Based on arbitrary ground motion probabilities,
not loss probabilities
Introduction
Systems View
Experimental
Simulation
Numerical
Simulation
Port Operations
EOT
EAB
Impacts
Vision
The performance of the port system
rather than its individual components
should be the basis of choosing among
seismic risk mitigation options. Because
of the complexity of the port system, this
approach requires civil engineering,
logistics, risk analysis, and behavioral
decision disciplines to implement.
Introduction
Systems View
Experimental
Simulation
Numerical
Simulation
Port Operations
EOT
EAB
Impacts
Project Team
University of Washington
Decision Research, Inc.
University of California - Davis
MIT
University
of Illinois
Seismic Systems &
Engineering Consultants, Inc
University of Southern
California
Drexel
University
Georgia Tech
University
of Texas
Civil Engineering
Logistics
Risk and Decision Analysis
Introduction
Systems View
Experimental
Simulation
Numerical
Simulation
Port Operations
EOT
EAB
Impacts
Project Team

Geotechnical
–
–
–
–
–

Ross Boulanger
Patricia Gallagher
Ellen Rathje
Glenn Rix
Andrew Whittle

– Dominic Assimaki
– Eduardo Kausel

Reggie DesRoches
Jim LaFave
Dawn Lehman
Roberto Leon
Charles Roeder
Logistics
– Alan Erera

Structural
–
–
–
–
–
Soil-Structure Interaction
Risk and Decision
Analysis
–
–
–
–

Ann Bostrom
Robin Gregory
Craig Taylor
Stu Werner
Project Coordinator
– Tanya Blackwell
Introduction
Systems View
Experimental
Simulation
Numerical
Simulation
Port Operations
EOT
EAB
Impacts
Project Team

Geotechnical
–
–
–
–
–

Ross Boulanger
Patricia Gallagher
Ellen Rathje
Glenn Rix
Andrew Whittle

– Dominic Assimaki
– Eduardo Kausel

Reggie DesRoches
Jim LaFave
Dawn Lehman
Roberto Leon
Charles Roeder
Logistics
– Alan Erera

Structural
–
–
–
–
–
Soil-Structure Interaction
Risk and Decision
Analysis
–
–
–
–

Ann Bostrom
Robin Gregory
Craig Taylor
Stu Werner
Project Coordinator
– Tanya Blackwell
Introduction
Systems View
Experimental
Simulation
Numerical
Simulation
Port Operations
EOT
EAB
Impacts
Port System
Introduction
Systems View
Experimental
Simulation
Numerical
Simulation
Port Operations
EOT
EAB
Impacts
Port Stakeholders
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Port owners and managers
Terminal operators
Ocean carriers
Intermodal transportation providers
Supply chain dependents
Employee unions
Finance and insurance providers
Government agencies
Public
Introduction
Systems View
Experimental
Simulation
Numerical
Simulation
Port Operations
EOT
EAB
Impacts
Multiple Decision Perspectives
Source: Linstone (1984)
Introduction
Systems View
Experimental
Simulation
Numerical
Simulation
Port Operations
EOT
EAB
Impacts
Risk Management Framework
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Define the decision problem and gather
information on the port system
Elicit stakeholder objectives and define
alternatives
Evaluate the component and systemslevel performance of each alternative
Present the results in a manner to
enhance stakeholder comprehension,
clarify underlying choices, and address
tradeoffs
Iterate
Introduction
Systems View
Experimental
Simulation
Numerical
Simulation
Port Operations
EOT
EAB
Impacts
Experimental Simulations
Soil-structure
interaction
Crane response
Liquefaction
Introduction
Systems View
Experimental
Simulation
Numerical
Simulation
Port Operations
EOT
EAB
Impacts
Soil Improvement Methods

Prefabricated
vertical drains
– Low cost means to
suppress or dissipate
excess pore pressure

Colloidal silica
grouting
– Environmentally
benign material with
low initial viscosity,
controllable gel time,
and long-term
mechanical stability
Introduction
Systems View
Experimental
Simulation
Numerical
Simulation
Port Operations
EOT
EAB
Impacts
Soil Improvement Methods

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Less disruptive than other soil improvement
methods; well suited to developed sites
Able to treat areas inaccessible via
conventional techniques
Opportunity to investigate drainage and
stiffening as compared with densification as
mechanisms to mitigate liquefaction
Evaluated via a full-scale field test at the Port
of Seattle using NEES@UTexas and
centrifuge tests at NEES@UCDavis
Introduction
Systems View
Experimental
Simulation
Numerical
Simulation
Port Operations
EOT
EAB
Impacts
Pile-Deck Connections
Introduction
Systems View
Experimental
Simulation
Numerical
Simulation
Port Operations
EOT
EAB
Impacts
Pile Configurations
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Steel batter piles - greater ductility and
repairability
Vertical pre-cast concrete piles with
unbonded dowels - greater ductility
Pre-cast deck construction - efficient
construction and repair
Evaluated via full-scale tests at
NEES@UIUC
Introduction
Systems View
Experimental
Simulation
Numerical
Simulation
Port Operations
EOT
EAB
Impacts
Container Cranes
Introduction
Systems View
Experimental
Simulation
Numerical
Simulation
Port Operations
EOT
EAB
Impacts
Container Cranes
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Ductile moment connections and
bracing systems
Technologies to accommodate large
ground displacements due to
liquefaction
Isolation systems
Tie down systems
Evaluated via large-scale tests at
NEES@Buffalo
Introduction
Systems View
Experimental
Simulation
Numerical
Simulation
Port Operations
EOT
EAB
Impacts
Numerical Simulation

Compute the response of geotechnical,
structural, and soil-structure systems for
existing and remediated/retrofitted conditions
as a standalone tool and integrated with
experimental simulations
–
–
–
–
–
Soil-foundation-structure interface nonlinearities
Large, liquefaction-induced ground displacements
Scattering and diffraction in heterogeneous media
Diffraction in 2D and 3D topographic configurations
Coupled longitudinal, transverse, and torsional
responses
Introduction
Systems View
Experimental
Simulation
Numerical
Simulation
Port Operations
EOT
EAB
Impacts
Numerical Simulation

Simplified analyses
– p-y curves for piles derived via pushover
(i.e., static) analyses

Simplified dynamic analyses
– Equivalent stiffness of embedded pile
derived via cyclic loading simulations
applied at the pile-deck connection

Dynamic analyses
– Finite element modeling of soil-structure
system
Source: PIANC (2001)
Introduction
Systems View
Experimental
Simulation
Numerical
Simulation
Port Operations
EOT
EAB
Impacts
Numerical Simulation

Simplified analyses
– p-y curves for piles derived via pushover (i.e., static)
analyses

Simplified dynamic analyses
– Equivalent stiffness of embedded pile derived via
cyclic loading simulations applied at the pile-deck
connection

Dynamic analyses via macroelements
– Macroelements developed via numerical simulations
and validated via experimental simulations

Dynamic analyses
– Finite element modeling of soil-structure system
Introduction
Systems View
Experimental
Simulation
Numerical
Simulation
Port Operations
EOT
EAB
Impacts
Port Operations

Develop models to estimate system
performance (e.g., container
throughput) given the state of
operational components
– Rapid evaluation
– Integration within the risk management
framework

Why not just simulate?
– Requires enumerating a large number of
possible component damage states and
simulating system performance for each
Introduction
Systems View
Experimental
Simulation
Numerical
Simulation
Port Operations
EOT
EAB
Impacts
Port Operations

Develop real-time operational decision support
tools to improve port system performance
given restricted operational resources
– Existing operational models are not equipped to:
• Handle dynamic and stochastic information
• Integrate decisions for multiple port components
• Solve large-scale problems faced by modern ports
– Real-time systems optimization has the potential to
dramatically improve decisions made in response to
natural hazards as well as terrorist incidents
Introduction
Systems View
Experimental
Simulation
Numerical
Simulation
Port Operations
EOT
EAB
Impacts
K-12
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Hosting a teacher from
Westlake High School
via the Georgia InternFellowships for Teachers
(GIFT) Program and an
RET supplement
Hosting 6 Westlake
students for summer
research (sponsored by
the Siemens
Foundation)
Develop term projects
using NEES telepresence capabilities
Introduction
Systems View
Experimental
Simulation
Numerical
Simulation
Port Operations
EOT
EAB
Impacts
HBCU-REU Program


Target students at
Historically Black
Colleges and
Universities
Participate in NEES
research and
enrichment activities
Introduction
Systems View
Experimental
Simulation
Numerical
Simulation
Port Operations
EOT
EAB
Impacts
Minority Postdoctoral Fellowships
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Increase under-represented groups in
academia
Research experience
Faculty mentoring
Student advising
Leverage the AGEP program
Dr. Mark Lewis
Dr. Sam Graham
Introduction
Systems View
Experimental
Simulation
Numerical
Simulation
Port Operations
EOT
EAB
Impacts
Industrial Fellowship Program
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1-2 week inresidence
experience at a
partner institution
Knowledge
exchange
Facilitate technology
transfer
Introduction
Systems View
Experimental
Simulation
Numerical
Simulation
Port Operations
EOT
EAB
Impacts
Executive Advisory Board
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Tom Armstrong, Georgia Ports Authority
Susumu Iai, Kyoto University
Michael Jordan, Liftech Consultants,
Inc.
Tom LaBasco, Port of Oakland
Dick Wittkop, Moffat and Nichol
Port of Seattle representative
Introduction
Systems View
Experimental
Simulation
Numerical
Simulation
Port Operations
EOT
EAB
Impacts
Impacts
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

Innovative soil remediation techniques
well suited for port facilities
Improved pile configurations and piledeck connections that are more ductile
and repair-friendly
Improved crane design and retrofit
techniques to reduce damage from
large ground deformations
Numerical simulation using
macroelements to fill the gap between
simple and complex analysis methods
Introduction
Systems View
Experimental
Simulation
Numerical
Simulation
Port Operations
EOT
EAB
Impacts
Impacts
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

Logistics models to link the condition of
port facilities with system performance
Real-time decision support to optimize
port operations following a disruptive
event
Formal research on stakeholder
participation and behavioral decision
making to integrate value-focused
decision research with research on
perception and understanding of
seismic risks
Introduction
Systems View
Experimental
Simulation
Numerical
Simulation
Port Operations
EOT
EAB
Impacts
Impacts


A seismic risk management framework
that uses the performance of the port
system rather than its individual
components as the basis for choosing
among risk mitigation options
An EOT program that addresses the
lack of under-represented groups in the
STEM areas with K-12 through
postdoctoral programs
Acknowledgements
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National Science Foundation
(Award No. CMS-0530478)
NEESinc and NEESit
Siemens Foundation
Port of Seattle
Georgia Ports Authority
U.S. Naval Facilities Engineering Command
NILEX Corporation
Coasts, Oceans, Ports, and Rivers Institute of
ASCE
U.S. Government Accountability Office
Vision
This project integrates civil engineering,
logistics, risk analysis, and behavioral
decision disciplines to develop a seismic
risk mitigation framework that uses the
performance of the port system rather
than its individual components as the
basis of choosing among risk mitigation
options.
Soil Improvement Methods
Prefabricated vertical drains and colloidal silica
grouting:
 Less disruptive
 Able to treat areas inaccessible via
conventional techniques
 Opportunity to investigate drainage and
stiffening vis-à-vis densification as
mechanisms to mitigate liquefaction
 Evaluated via a full-scale field test at the Port
of Seattle using NEES@UTexas and
centrifuge tests at NEES@UCDavis
Payload Projects




Researchers with external funding
Researchers without funding (e.g.,
prediction “competitions”)
EAB and stakeholder-funded projects
Industry-funded projects (e.g., other soil
improvement techniques)
Numerical Simulation
Simplified
Analyses
Simplified
Dynamic
Analyses
Earth
retaining
structures
Empirical and
pseudo-static
methods
Newmark
methods and
charts based
on parametric
studies
PileSupported
Wharves
Response
spectrum
method
Pushover
analysis and
response
spectrum
methods
Cranes
Dynamic
Analyses
FEM/FDM
Linear,
equivalent
linear, or nonlinear analyses
2D/3D
Source: PIANC (2001)
Numerical Simulation
Simplified
Analyses
Simplified
Dynamic
Analyses
Dynamic
Analyses via
Macroelements
Earth
retaining
structures
Empirical and
pseudo-static
methods
Newmark
methods and
charts based
on parametric
studies
PileSupported
Wharves
Response
spectrum
method
Pushover
analysis and
response
spectrum
methods
Macroelements
are derived by
integrating
material
behavior of a
locally affected
volume and
concentrating
the global
stress-strain
response at the
soil-structure
interface
Cranes
Dynamic
Analyses
FEM/FDM
Linear,
equivalent
linear, or nonlinear analyses
2D/3D
Risk Management Framework





Acceptable risk procedure
Value-focused thinking
Socio-technical systems approach
Structured deliberation and targeted
analysis
Risk communication and perception
Risk Management Framework





Define the decision problem and gather information on the
port system including stakeholders, physical infrastructure,
and operational data
Elicit stakeholder objectives, define explicit systems-level
performance measures and attributes, and define alternative
means to achieve them
Evaluate the component and systems-level performance (i.e.,
consequences) of each alternative means including
uncertainties
Present the results in a manner to enhance stakeholder
comprehension, clarify underlying choices, and explicitly
address tradeoffs
Iterate
Education, Outreach, and
Training




K-12 outreach programs
Research Experience for
Undergraduates (REU) program
targeted at Historically Black Colleges
and Universities (HBCU)
Minority post-doctoral fellowships
Industrial fellowship program