The Extent of SADC Trade Protection and its Effects on the Least Developing Members of the Region. TIPS ANNUAL FORUM Date: 29 – 31 October 2008 Presenter: Mmatlou Kalaba Presentation Outline • a) Introduction b) Literature Review c) Methodology and Data Description d) Analysis e) Evaluation of Results and Implications f) Concluding Remarks Introduction ….background • • • • • SADC consists of 14 members which are all developing countries and LDCs. They face various economic, development, social, health and welfare challenges Regional integration and trade liberalisation is used (indirectly) as a vehicle to address some of these challenges . Protocol on trade is the central and legal agreements to foster trade liberalisation However, there are major differences between member states Introduction,….Land Area and Population Angola Botswana DRC Lesotho Madagascar Malawi Mauritius Mozambique Namibia South Africa Swaziland Tanzania Zambia Zimbabwe SADC Land area 2 (1000 km ) 1,246.7 600.4 3,245.4 30.4 587.0 118.5 2.0 801.6 825.5 1,219.9 17.4 945.1 752.6 390.6 10,783.1 Population, 2006 estimate (million) 16.4 1.8 59.3 1.8 19.1 13.2 1.3 20.1 2.1 47.4 1.1 39.5 11.9 13.1 248.1 Introduction... Economic Performance Country/ Period GDP (current prices US$ bn) Per capita GDP (current prices US$) Average GDP growth (%) Annua growth SADC Angola Botswana DRC Lesotho Madagascar Malawi Mauritius Mozambique Namibia South Africa Swaziland Tanzania Zambia Zimbabwe 2006 378.7 44 10.3 8.5 1.5 5.5 2.2 6.4 7.6 6.4 255 2.6 12.8 10.9 5.0 2006 1,967.9 2,682.9 5,722.2 143.3 833.3 288.0 166.7 4,923.1 378.1 3,047.6 5,379.7 2,363.6 324.1 916.0 381.7 2000 - 05 4.0 9.16 5.49 4.42 2.46 2.21 2.86 3.69 8.57 4.62 3.63 2.32 6.91 4.71 -4.93 2006 5.7 18.6 5.4 5.6 7.2 5.0 7.9 3.6 8.0 4.1 5.4 2.8 6.7 5.3 -6.1 Introduction…..GDP contribution by sector bullet sub-bullet sub-bullet Introduction… objectives • • • • One way of encouraging trade is through reduction of prohibitive tariff barriers, and so far that is the option that SADC has adopted. In this study examines the degree of tariff protection in the agricultural sector amongst member states Justification: Tariffs are important both as revenue sources and for enhancing competitiveness. Furthermore, high tariffs are in products of interest for LDCs and priority trade policy areas Focus: Agricultural tariffs, period: 1999 Introduction…Dependence on Trade Tax Revenue Trade tax revenue-1999 Country Share of Share of total bullet GDP (% revenue (%) sub-bullet7.70 18.10 Botswana* sub-bullet18.00 58.00 Lesotho* 25.60 Madagascar 2.80 2.50 12.40 Malawi bullet 31.50 Mauritius sub-bullet 5.40 18.90 Mozambique sub-bullet2.20 38.00 Namibia* sub-bullet12.10 0.80 3.00 SA* 15.30 55.20 Swaziland* bullet 1.30 11.60 Tanzania 5.90 30.90 Zambia 2.60 10.40 Zimbabwe Simple average tariff 12.34 12.34 16.20 13.00 24.36 20.50 12.34 12.34 12.34 12.66 13.59 19.87 Research on the Trade Protection in SADC Authour(s) Year Focus Limitation Flatters 2001 Rules of Origin Restricted to RoO Lewis et al 2001 Impact of trade liberalisation Prod. & country aggregation Wobst 2002 Impact of tariff harmonisation Restricted to 5 countries Brentton et al 2004 Rules of Origin Restricted to RoO ESRF, Khandelwal 2004 Revenue Narrow focus Keck & Piermartini 2005 Impact of trade liberalisation Prod. & country aggregation Mutambatsere 2006 Effects of tariff reforms Focused on cereals Nhara, Subramanian 2006 Revenue Narrow focus SACAU 2006 NTB in agriculture Baseline study No studies on" the degree of tariff protection between SADC MS” Methodology and Data • • • • The main method of relative tariff ratio index (RTR ) Developed by Sandrey, modified further by Gehlhar & Wainio,Jank and then later by Wainio & Gibson It is a tariff-based measure and uses bilateral index between trading partners. The importer’s tariff rates are weighted by exporter’s world trade to determine the index Methods…RTR n RTR AB B A ( T . V i i ) i n T i A .Vi B i where, A, B represents countries Ti = AVE tariff rate for product i Vi = share of exports of product i in total exports. •A ratio of close to one reflects evenness in the respective tariff regimes between partners. It does not reflect tariff levels Method…Pros & Cons • Pros – Summarises lots of date into concise results – Changes in applied tariffs are immediately considered – Effective in measuring progress of FTAs and other regional agreements – Assess “own protection” – Useful for trade negotiations Cons Ignores elasticity effects and substitution possibilities One partner assumption is unrealistic (proxy) Other factors are not included, i.e. tastes & pref, transport costs, political, etc Data • • • • • • Trade and Tariff Data Sources: SADC TD & SADC MS tariff schedules Product coverage: HS 6 digit (Agriculture) Country coverage: 11 MS (SACU as a unit) Period: 1999 AVE were calculated using… t i ,ave t i , spe * Vi Xi Analysis….Comparative tariff structure, 1999 No of lines Mean Std dev Median Max. Co. of var. • • • • Mal Mau Moz SACU Tan Zam Zim SADC Avg 6,120 5,442 5,479 5,246 7,824 5,619 6,066 7,166 17 13 24 21 12 13 14 20 17 13 28 13 27 11 10 17 14 10 10 25 6 15 15 15 114 30 80 35 500 30 25 100 1.0 1.0 1.1 0.6 2.2 0.9 0.7 0.8 SACU & Zim had most tariff lines and highest individual tariffs Zim, Moz & Mau have highest average tariffs Dev. MS appear to have highest max tariffs Co. of Var reflects SACU’s complex tariff regime Analysis,….Tariff Distribution & Peaks Distribution Duty free (%) 1-5% 6-10% 11-20% 21-30% >30% Tariff Peaks Domestic International • • • • • Mal 33 15 18 0 34 0 Mau 28 4 22 13 5 29 Moz 1 12 30 0 21 36 SACU 45 5 8 15 22 5 Tan 39 2 6 15 37 0 Zam 21 14 0 33 32 0 Zim 6 25 9 22 18 20 Avg 25 11 13 14 24 13 0 34 14 38 0 57 5 35 0 39 0 32 5 44 3 40 SACU & Tan had most duty free tariffs High % of Moz tariffs were more than 30 Only Dev. MS had domestic tariff peaks Mau had more domestic peaks than all of SADC MS combined SADC had high concentration of international tariff peaks Analysis…Agric exports and tariffs Agric Exports Source $ (mil) Malawi Mauritius Mozambique SACU Tanzania Zambia Zimbabwe Total SADC • • • 356 379 187 3,954 402 61 815 6,154 % of total 87 24. 52 11 66 11 48 43 Top 10 agric exports $ % of (mil) agric 348 98 349 92 172 92 1,706 43 339 84 54 87 678 83 3,645 59 Avg Agric tariff 16 22 29 25 18 20 26 22 Contribution of Agric was lowest Zam & SACU and highest in Mal Agric exports are concentrated in few products for all MS except SACU Agric tariffs are higher than total average in all, but Mau Analysis …Tariffs faced by top 10 Agric Exports Exporter Mal Mau Moz SACU Tan Zam Zim Average % of agric tariffs of top 10 products Mal 22 42 23 78 16 19 44 Mau 16 36 27 35 20 23 18 Moz 15 37 28 19 16 20 24 SACU 20 20 32 63 25 25 36 Tan 15 34 28 21 18 23 29 Zam 16 20 27 8 16 20 22 Zim 26 40 27 70 18 22 45 Avg (weighted) 18 33 27 42 18 22 31 SACU & Mau applied highest tariffs on products of interest to LDCs Mal & Tan faced highest tariffs in Dev. MS, and yet offer most access SACU, Zim & Moz had protective tariffs on products of offensive interest to themselves Analysis…RTR interpretation Mal Mal Mau Moz SACU Tan Zam Zim • • 0.4 0.7 0.2 0.9 0.8 0.6 Mau Moz SACU Tan Zam Zim 1.9 1.5 4.0 1.1 1.2 1.7 0.7 1.8 0.6 1.2 0.5 1.4 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.6 1.7 1.2 3.0 0.5 1.8 1.7 0.8 1.4 1.7 0.8 1.4 0.3 0.7 1.0 2.2 1.1 2.0 0.6 1.0 RTR =1, symmetry of respective tariff regimes RTR <1, MS grants more access than receives Evaluation and Implications • • • • • • Covered 60% of agric exports (value) Agric contribution to exports is high LDCs Dev MS set high tariffs on agric sector, with most set below average and few very high. Indication of protection for IP development or competitiveness. Yet, the same products are of high interest to LDCs, hampering their IP development potential LDCs spread tariffs with very little focus on specific sectors in an attempt to balance three or policy decisions. The dependence on tariff revenue is also evident in their schedules. Lack of diversification and high protection by partners make them more vulnerable. LDCs grants more access, and yet faces the highest protection in important products. This against the principle of “growth through trade” Concluding Remarks • • • • “Growth and Development through trade strategy” that SADC adopted is a sound principle for regional integration, however protection on agriculture may affect agriculture negatively. This is not helped by listing many agric products as sensitive. This may also be the cause for decline in intra-SADC trade in the sector, as MS seek favourable markets elsewhere. Agric development needs to be linked to trade and industrial policies to enhance progress of vulnerable LDC sectors. As SADC moves into deeper levels of integration, then these policy developments will require a collective effort. This should also include ways to substitute tariff revenue to allow flexibility in policy space.