The changing world of
casual gaming
M.Eng, ARAeS, CIPP
©2010 – DataGenetics
All logos and trademarks in this presentation are property of their respective owners.
Biography – Nick Berry
1988
1994
2008
©2010 – DataGenetics
2010
PC Casual Game Universe
Download
Web
Social
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PC Casual Game Universe
Download
Web
Advertising
Sales
Micro-transactions
Social
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Number of players
24 hours
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The Results
Advertising Potential
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Price evolution of deluxe downloads
$19.95
$19.99
$15.99
$12.99
$9.99
$6.95
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$6.99
facebook
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Just how big is it?
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Year end registered users (MM)
800
?
700
600
500
July
400
350
300
200
100
100
0
50
0
1
5.5
12
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
©2010 – DataGenetics
2008
2009
2010
Just how big is FaceBook?
6.8 billion people on the planet
2.0 billion people connected to the internet
500 million registered facebook accounts
25% of the connected World already has a Facebook account!
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If facebook were a country …
#1
#2
#3
China
India
facebook
… it would the 3rd largest in the World.
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What is the most popular Windows
application of all time?
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Dec-98
Mar-99
Jun-99
Sep-99
Dec-99
Mar-00
Jun-00
Sep-00
Dec-00
Mar-01
Jun-01
Sep-01
Dec-01
Mar-02
Jun-02
Sep-02
Dec-02
Mar-03
Jun-03
Sep-03
Dec-03
Mar-04
Jun-04
Sep-04
Dec-04
Mar-05
Jun-05
Sep-05
Dec-05
Mar-06
Jun-06
Sep-06
Dec-06
Mar-07
Jun-07
Sep-07
Dec-07
Mar-08
Jun-08
Sep-08
Dec-08
Mar-09
Jun-09
Sep-09
Dec-09
Mar-10
Peak Population
Effect of facebook on traditional Casual Gaming web sites
450000
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
©2010 – DataGenetics
Data courtesy of
Worldwide Registrations – Social Networks
Xanga
MyHeritage
Last.fm
Viadeo
WeeWorld
Flickr
Odnoklassniki
Classmates.com
MyLife
Flixster
Netlog
Badoo
Tagged
LinkedIn
Twitter
hi5
Mail.ru
Friendster
Vkontakte
Orkut
Bebo
Windows Live Spaces
MySpace
Habbo
Qzone
Facebook
0
100,000,000
200,000,000
300,000,000
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400,000,000
500,000,000
600,000,000
facebook gaming is big business
“Disney Buys Playdom in $763 Million Deal,
Becoming Hollywood Leader in Social Games”
“Not Playing Around. EA Buys Playfish For $300
Million, Plus a $100 Million Earnout.”
“Zynga Issues Shares at a $4 Billion Valuation”
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Top facebook Game
Peaked at 84 MM Monthly Active Users (MAU).
32 MM distinct people used the application at
least once a day (DAU).
Close to 40% of all their users visit the
application every single day!
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Farmville - MAU
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Café World - MAU
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Café World - DAU
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Café World - Engagement
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Around the World
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Where in the World?
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Top 25 countries on facebook
Top 20 countries account for 79% of all FaceBook registered accounts.
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After Thailand, no other country accounts for more than 1%.
Gender breakdown of FaceBook users Worldwide
Male dominant
Female dominant
United States 44.31% male
United Kingdom 48.26% male
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India 69.88
% male
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facebook Demographics
13
Male
AGE
65+
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Female
facebook Demographics - USA
Many users of
college age.
In USA large number
of members over 65
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Different Countries
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Similar Countries … Similar Profiles
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Similar Countries … Similar Profiles
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Different Countries … Different Profiles
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Bejeweled Blitz
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Jay Leno vs. Conan
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Quiz Time – Guess the movie
Answer: Twilight™
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Comparing Demographic “Genes”
38.41% correlation
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Comparing Demographic “Genes”
80.89% correlation
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Cross correlation between brands
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Bejeweled
Blitz Affinity
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Propensity to pay?
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Sorority Life, % users who spend by age
Source: “Rules to Monetize By …”, Playdom 2010
Are you targeting your game to the paying audience?
O
$
Even if this game had 5x
the traffic, it would not
generate the same revenue
Would you like to have the largest game
on facebook, or the most profitable?
©2010 – DataGenetics
Micro-transaction types
Bling
-
Avatars
Fashion
Accessories
Things that do not
adjust the balance of
the game
Accelerators
Kill 10 more Orcs
Pay to get 10 gold
coins to get +10%
attack bonus for 12
hours
= or =
Pay 10 gold coins
Time
Money
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Power-ups
+10%
The economic beauty of micro-transactions
Price
The “Tall” Tail …
$19.95
$6.95
The Long Tail …
Volume
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Big brands are starting to get it
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MIT research
• When playing games, people are at
95-99% “focused attention”
(As measured by pupil dilation, skin resistance, pulse,
movement, breathing, brain activity …)
• This blows away all other media
• With just 15 seconds exposure to a
brand, there is >80% unaided recall.
Sponsors can receive “Halo” effect by having their
brands associated with success screens and level
completion events.
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Pitching to potential Advertisers
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Honeymoon period for brand owners with fans!
•
43% of fans visit facebook several times a day.
•
50% of fans come to facebook for entertainment.
•
92% say that being a fan has a positive impact in recommending to friends.
•
52% recommend others to follow the brand.
•
84% of fans consume (regularly/ocassionally) the brand.
•
There is no disconnect between brands followed on facebook and regular consumers.
•
An average of 9 brands are followed by users.
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Source: DDB, October 2010
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You’re a Service not a Product
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Measure Everything!
Analytics is now just as important as game design!
Play or
Join
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We’re now on the second generation
of Social Games
Generation #1 – Build it, and throw it live immediately.
Fix and modify it live. Those days are over!
Generation #2 – Get it mechanics reasonably polished before general release.
“You don’t get a second chance to make a first impression”
Today’s early adopters of new games:
- Virally introduce more people to your game
- Typically spend more over lifetime
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Questions?
Nick@DataGenetics.com
©2010 – DataGenetics