COUNTY OF RIVERSIDE
5-Year Sales Tax Forecast
Brice Russell
HdL Companies
Delivering Revenue, Insight and
Efficiency to Local Government
DEFINE SALES TAX BASE
Analyze trends
Adjust for onetime revenue
Delivering Revenue, Insight and
Efficiency to Local Government
Riverside County 10-Year Sales and Use Tax Trend
Defining Base Sales and Use Tax Revenue
*FY 2013-14 Estimated
$50,000,000
Recession Begins
Credit Bubble Build Up
$45,000,000
Wildomar Incorporates
$40,000,000
Credit Bubble Build Up
Solar Projects Initiate
Menifee Incorporates
$35,000,000
Eastvale Incorporates
Jurupa ValleyJurupa
Incorporates
Valley Incorporates
$30,000,000
$25,000,000
$20,000,000
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
Riverside County SUT
Delivering Revenue, Insight and
Efficiency to Local Government
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
Riverside County SUT Ex-"Utilities" Group
2013-14*
Sales and Use Tax Comparison
County With Cities v. County Area
With and Without "Utilities"
Countywide
*2013-14 Estimated
Unincorporated
$350,000,000
$45,000,000
$300,000,000
$40,000,000
$250,000,000
$35,000,000
$200,000,000
$30,000,000
$150,000,000
$25,000,000
$100,000,000
$20,000,000
2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 *2013-14
County All Agencies
County All Agencies Ex-"Utilities"
County Area With "Utilities"
County Area Ex - "Utilities"
Delivering
Revenue,
Insight and
Delivering
Revenue,
Insight and
Efficiency
to
Local
Government
Efficiency to Local Government
HdL’S FORECAST METHODS
Track state business categories
Analyze trade publications
Track leading indicators
Use on-the-ground sources
Delivering Revenue, Insight and
Efficiency to Local Government
Automobile Transfers
County of Riverside
Boat Transfers
Aircraft Transfers
Sales Tax Distribution by Industry Group
New Motor Vehicle Dealers
Calendar 2013
Auto Supply Stores
Trailers/Rvs
Used Automotive Dealers
Auto Lease
Boats/Motorcycles
Energy/Utilities
Aircraft Dealers
Auto Repair Shops
Autos & Transportation
Transportation & Rentals
Food & Drugs
Grocery – No Alcohol
Restaurants & Hotels
Food Stores Non-Grocery
Package Liquor Stores
Business & Industry
Marijuana Dispensary
Building & Construction
Candy/Nut Stores
Drug Stores
Fuel & Service Stations
Grocery Stores – Beer/Wine
Grocery Stores - Liquor
Desert Hills Outlets
Quick Service Restaurants
Casual Dining
Fine Dining
Fast Casual Restaurants
Hotels/Motels No Liquor
Women’s Apparel
Hotels - Liquor
Men’s Apparel
General Consumer Goods
Clubs/Amusement Places
Family
Apparel
Florist Shops
Lumber/Building Materials
Shoe
Stores
Photographic Equipment
Hardware Stores
Variety
Stores
Music Stores
Plumbing/Electrical Supplies
Department
Stores
Stationery/Book Stores
Paint/Glass/Wallpaper
Discount
Dept
Stores
Jewelry Stores
Contractors
General
Merchandise
Specialty Stores
Fuel/Ice Dealers
Newspaper
Stands
Cigarette/Cigar Stores
Service Stations
Art/Gift/Novelty
Stores
Non-Store Retailers
Petroleum Prod/Equipment
Sporting Goods/Bike Stores
Part Time Permittees
Energy/Utilities
Office Supplies/Furniture
Warehouse/Farm/Construction
Equip.
Garden/Agricultural Supplies
Wineries
Repair Ship/Hand Tool Rentals
Office Equipment
Medical/Biotech
Electrical Equipment
Government/Social Org.
Auctioneers
Business Services
Food Service Equipment &
Supplies
Textiles/Furnishings
Drugs/Chemicals
Motion Pictures/Equipment
Trailers/Auto Parts
Transportation Non-Auto
Fulfillment Centers
Heavy Industrial
Light Industrial/Printers
Home Furnishings
Electronics/Appliance Stores
Second-Hand Stores
Vending Machine Routes
Portrait Studios
Shoe Repair Shops
Morticians & Undertakers
Personal Service – No Liquor
RESOURCES
• INDUSTRY TRADE PUBLICATIONS
• STATE AND FEDERAL GOVERNMENT AGENCIES
• FORECASTS FROM UNIVERSITIES AND BANKS
• CONSUMER SURVEYS
• SCORES OF DAILY MEDIA REPORTS
• HISTORIC SALES DATA
Delivering Revenue, Insight and
Efficiency to Local Government
BEFORE THE FORECAST
Learn local conditions
Adjust for economic and
demographic factors
Factor out payment aberrations
Delivering Revenue, Insight and
Efficiency to Local Government
INDUSTRY GROUP
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
AUTOS/TRANSPORTATION
BUILDING/CONSTRUCTION
BUSINESS/INDUSTRY
FOOD/DRUGS
FUEL/SERVICE STATIONS
GENERAL CONSUMER
RESTAURANTS/HOTELS
Delivering Revenue, Insight and
Efficiency to Local Government
GROWTH FACTORS
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
5.0%
7.5%
2.0%
2.0%
1.0%
2.0%
5.0%
PUTTING IT ALL TOGETHER
Actual tax return data:
+Correct data errors
+Factor out onetime reporting aberrations
+Adjust for closeouts or new stores
+Analyze source publications and socio-economic data
+Create custom growth factors by industry group
=Estimate of future revenue
Delivering Revenue, Insight and
Efficiency to Local Government
Riverside County 5-Year Forecast
Ex-Utilities Group
*2013-14 to 2018-19 Estimated
$45,000,000
$40,000,000
$35,000,000
$30,000,000
19.7% 0.8%
5.9%
-15.0%
26.3%
-21.2% 2.3%
$25,000,000
$20,000,000
$15,000,000
$10,000,000
$5,000,000
$-
Delivering Revenue, Insight and
Efficiency to Local Government
-8.2%
-6.5%
-16.5% 4.7%
4.8%
4.9% 4.9%
PROPOSITION 172 REVENUES
• Based on each of the 58 counties share of taxable sales
in prior calendar year.
• Sales and use tax gains in a given county can boost
public safety funding in future fiscal years.
• There is a time lag between Bradley-Burns revenue
changes and when public safety funding changes.
Delivering Revenue, Insight and
Efficiency to Local Government
PUBLIC SAFETY REVENUES
Prop. 172
Based on a share of statewide receipts
County shares:
2012-13: 4.9280%
2013-14: 5.0339%
Delivering Revenue, Insight and
Efficiency to Local Government
PUBLIC SAFETY SUMMARY
2012-13 Revenue: $143M
Solar Portion: about $3M
2013-14 Revenue: $150M
Solar Portion: about $4M
Public Safety Base Revenue: $146M
Delivering Revenue, Insight and
Efficiency to Local Government
Questions/Comments?
Brice Russell
brussell@hdlcompanies.com
Phone: 909.861.4335
www.hdlcompanies.com
Delivering Revenue, Insight and
Efficiency to Local Government