Gaining 100% certainty in
intensity estimation
National Coordinating Office
USA-NPN
September 23, 2014
NPN Webinar Team
Alyssa Rosemartin
Assistant Director &
IT Coordinator
Ellen Denny
Monitoring Design
Coordinator
Erin Posthumus
Outreach Associate
Patty Guertin
Botanist
LoriAnne Barnett
Education
Coordinator
@LoriAnneBarnett
…it is the study of the timing
of recurring plant and animal
life-cycle stages, or
phenophases, and their
relationship to environmental
conditions.
The science of the
seasons
• Blooms and buds
• Hibernation,
migration, emergence
• Easy to observe
Photo credits: L. Barnett
Phenology
USA National Phenology Network
Primary goal
• Create a standardized
dataset for use in multiple
types of research.
UNDERSTAND HOW SPECIES
AND LANDSCAPES ARE
RESPONDING TO CLIMATE
CHANGE.
• Make phenology data, models
and related information
available.
• Encourage people of all ages
and backgrounds to observe
and record phenology.
Photo credit: C. Enquist
Mission
Poll
Photo credit: L. Romano
Nature’s Notebook
for scientists, naturalists,
volunteers, land managers,
park rangers, and YOU!
 Long term monitoring of
the same individual plants
 Importance of entering the
“no” observations
 At least weekly
observations - catch the
first “yes”
 If uncertain, use the “?”
Leaves
Flowers
Fruits
Why do we care about these phenophases?
Photo: Brian F Powell
• Canopy –carbon sequestration, food for wildlife
– Fast green-up – longer amount of time for carbon
to be taken up by a tree
– Calibrate remotely-sensed images
• Peak flower – wildflower viewing, pollination
• Fruiting – food for wildlife
We actually don’t need 100% certainty!
Photo: Brian F Powell
Can you ballpark the number of people in this
room to 10, 100 or 1000?
Deciduous plant phenophases
Breaking leaf buds
Leaves
Increasing leaf size
Colored leaves
Flowers or Flower Buds
Open Flowers
Fruits
Ripe Fruits
Recent fruit or
seed drop
What is intensity?
If you answer “Yes” or “Uncertain” to a phenophase –
you may be asked an additional question about the
degree to which the phenophase is expressed,
for example:
• How many leaf buds are breaking?
• What percent of flowers are open?
• How much pollen do you see?
Estimating Intensity: Outline
1. Counts in number bins
(ie “How many --- are present?”)
2. Percent in bins
(ie “What percent of flowers are open?”)
3. Percent canopy
(ie “What percent of the canopy is full with leaves?”)
4. Oddballs: Leaf size percentage, how much pollen is
released
 The definitions were written to be taken literally.
The definitions are there to help
Do you see…
open flowers?
Open flowers : For Cornus florida, ignore the four large, white bracts and
watch for the opening of the small flowers in the center of the bracts.
Photo: Derek Ramsey via
Wikimedia Commons
No
INTENSITY
How many --- are present?
How many buds are breaking
How many flowers or flower buds (or number of catkins)
How many fruits
How many ripe fruits recently dropped
•
•
•
•
•
•
Less than 3
3 to 10
11 to 100
101 to 1,000
1,001 to 10,000
More than 10,000
Breaking leaf buds
One or more breaking leaf buds are visible on the plant. A leaf
bud is considered "breaking" once a green leaf tip is visible at the
end of the bud, but before the first leaf from the bud has unfolded
to expose the leaf stalk (petiole) or leaf base.
Yes
No
Leaf stalk or petiole is
visible.
Photos: Ellen G Denny
No
INTENSITY
Less than 3
3 to 10
11 to 100
101 to 1,000
1,001 to 10,000
More than 10,000
Photo: Axel Kristinsson, Wikimedia commons
How many breaking leaf buds are present?
INTENSITY
Pop Quiz!
How many breaking leaf buds are present?
Less than 3
3 to 10
11 to 100
101 to 1,000
1,001 to 10,000
More than 10,000
Poll
eastern cottonwood, Populus deltoides
INTENSITY
Pop Quiz!
How many breaking leaf buds are present?
Less than 3
3 to 10
11 to 100
101 to 1,000
1,001 to 10,000
More than 10,000
Poll
eastern cottonwood, Populus deltoides
Flowers or flower buds
One or more fresh open or unopened flowers or flower buds are
visible on the plant. Include flower buds that are still developing, but
do not include wilted or dried flowers.
Yes
Forsythia, Forsythia spp.
Photos: Ellen G Denny
Yes
INTENSITY
How many flowers/flower buds are present?
Less than 3
3 to 10
11 to 100
101 to 1,000
1,001 to 10,000
More than 10,000
pussy willow, Salix discolor
Photos: Ellen G Denny
For species in which individual
flowers are clustered in flower
heads, spikes or catkins
(inflorescences), simply
estimate the number of flower
heads, spikes or catkins and
not the number of individual
flowers.
INTENSITY
How many flowers/flower buds are present?
Less than 3
3 to 10
11 to 100
101 to 1,000
1,001 to 10,000
More than 10,000
pussy willow, Salix discolor
Photos: Ellen G Denny
For species in which individual
flowers are clustered in flower
heads, spikes or catkins
(inflorescences), simply
estimate the number of flower
heads, spikes or catkins and
not the number of individual
flowers.
INTENSITY
Less than 3
3 to 10
11 to 100
101 to 1,000
1,001 to 10,000
More than 10,000
flowering dogwood, Cornus florida
Photo: Kroton via Wikimedia Commons
How many flowers/flower buds are present?
INTENSITY
Less than 3
3 to 10
11 to 100
101 to 1,000
1,001 to 10,000
More than 10,000
flowering dogwood, Cornus florida
Photo: Kroton via Wikimedia Commons
How many flowers/flower buds are present?
INTENSITY
Pop Quiz!
Less than 3
3 to 10
11 to 100
101 to 1,000
1,001 to 10,000
More than 10,000
Note: The infloresence
(umbel) of mountain-laurel
should be counted, but here,
please estimate number of
individual flowers
Poll
mountain-laurel, Kalmia latifolia
Photo: Ellen G Denny
How many flowers/flower buds are
present?
INTENSITY
Pop Quiz!
Less than 3
3 to 10
11 to 100
101 to 1,000
1,001 to 10,000
More than 10,000
Note: The infloresence
(umbel) of mountain-laurel
should be counted, but here,
please estimate number of
individual flowers
Poll
mountain-laurel, Kalmia latifolia
Photo: Ellen G Denny
How many flowers/flower buds are
present?
One or more fruits are visible on the plant
Photos: Steven J. Baskauf, Diana Olszowy, super-sad.info,
PhreddieH3, Robert Sivinski, IPFW, Mackenzie Younger
Fruit
Fruit
Fruit: One or more fruits are visible on the plant. For Acer rubrum,
the fruit is two joined seeds in a "V" shape, each seed having a wing,
that changes from green or red to tan or brownish and drops from the
plant.
Yes for fruit
No for ripe fruit
Red maple, Acer rubrum
Photo: Steven J. Baskauf
Ripe Fruit: One or more ripe fruits are visible on the plant. For Acer
rubrum, a fruit is considered ripe when it has turned tan or brownish
and readily drops from the plant when touched.
INTENSITY
How many fruits are present?
common winterberry, Ilex verticillata
Photo: Ellen G Denny
Less than 3
3 to 10
11 to 100
101 to 1,000
1,001 to 10,000
More than 10,000
INTENSITY
How many fruits are present?
common winterberry, Ilex verticillata
Photo: Ellen G Denny
Less than 3
3 to 10
11 to 100
101 to 1,000
1,001 to 10,000
More than 10,000
INTENSITY
How many fruits are present?
Less than 3
3 to 10
11 to 100
101 to 1,000
1,001 to 10,000
More than 10,000
velvet mesquite, Prosopis velutina
Photo: Robert Sivinski
Like flowers, may also be clustered, e.g. in pods
For Prosopis velutina, the fruit is a pod that changes
from green to tan, often mottled or flecked with
maroon
INTENSITY
Pop Quiz!
Less than 3
3 to 10
11 to 100
101 to 1,000
1,001 to 10,000
More than 10,000
Poll
velvet mesquite, Prosopis velutina
Photo: Robert Sivinski
How many fruits are present?
INTENSITY
Pop Quiz!
Less than 3
3 to 10
11 to 100
101 to 1,000
1,001 to 10,000
More than 10,000
Poll
velvet mesquite, Prosopis velutina
Photo: Robert Sivinski
How many fruits are present?
Recent fruit drop
One or more mature fruits or seeds have dropped or been removed
from the plant since your last visit. Do not include obviously
immature fruits that have dropped before ripening, such as in a heavy
rain or wind, or empty fruits that had long ago dropped all of their
seeds but remained on the plant.
 Yes, if a storm seems to have
brought a lot of ripe or almost
ripe fruit down
 ?, if you cannot determine if
the fruit is old or recent.
black walnut, Juglans nigra
Photo: Matt Oden
 Yes, if a lot of unripe fruit
from your last visit appears to
have ripened and fallen.
Less than 3
3 to 10
11 to 100
101 to 1,000
1,001 to 10,000
More than 10,000
black walnut, Juglans nigra
Photo: Matt Oden
How many mature fruits have dropped
seeds or have completely dropped or been
removed from the plant since your last
visit?
INTENSITY
Less than 3
3 to 10
11 to 100
101 to 1,000
1,001 to 10,000
More than 10,000
black walnut, Juglans nigra
Photo: Matt Oden
How many mature fruits have dropped
seeds or have completely dropped or been
removed from the plant since your last
visit?
INTENSITY
How many mature fruits have dropped
seeds or have completely dropped or been
removed from the plant since your last
visit?
Less than 3
3 to 10
11 to 100
101 to 1,000
1,001 to 10,000
More than 10,000
Poll
Creosote bush, Larrea tridentata
Photos: Brian Haggerty, Matt Harding,
California Phenology Project
Pop Quiz!
INTENSITY
How many mature fruits have dropped
seeds or have completely dropped or been
removed from the plant since your last
visit?
Less than 3
3 to 10
11 to 100
101 to 1,000
1,001 to 10,000
More than 10,000
Poll
Creosote bush, Larrea tridentata
Photos: California Phenology Project
Pop Quiz!
INTENSITY
What % of --- are --- ?
Flowers/open
Fruit/ripe
5-24%
Less than 5%
25-49%
50-74%
75-94%
95% or more
Open flowers
One or more open, fresh flowers are visible on the plant. Flowers are
considered "open" when the reproductive parts (male stamens or
female pistils) are visible between or within unfolded or open
flower parts (petals, floral tubes or sepals). Do not include wilted or
dried flowers.
Yes, Flowers or flower buds
Yes, Open flowers
Forsythia, Forsythia spp.
Photos: Ellen G Denny
Yes, Flowers or flower buds
No, Open flowers
INTENSITY
What percent of flowers are open?
common winterberry, Ilex verticillata
Photos: Ellen G Denny
Less than 5%
5-24%
25-49%
50-74%
75-94%
95% or more
INTENSITY
What percent of flowers are open?
common winterberry, Ilex verticillata
Photos: Ellen G Denny
Less than 5%
5-24%
25-49%
50-74%
75-94%
95% or more
INTENSITY
What percent of flowers are open?
Less than 5%
5-24%
25-49%
50-74%
75-94%
95% or more
Grey alder, Alnus incana
Photos: Ellen G Denny
For species in which
individual flowers are
clustered in flower heads,
spikes or catkins
(inflorescences), estimate
the percentage of all
individual flowers that are
open.
INTENSITY
What percent of flowers are open?
Less than 5%
5-24%
25-49%
50-74%
75-94%
95% or more
Grey alder, Alnus incana
Photo: Ellen G Denny
For Alnus incana, the male
flowers will open once the
initially compact catkin has
unfolded and is hanging
loosely
INTENSITY
What percent of flowers are open?
Less than 5%
5-24%
25-49%
50-74%
75-94%
95% or more
Grey alder, Alnus incana
Photo: Ellen G Denny
For Alnus incana, the male
flowers will open once the
initially compact catkin has
unfolded and is hanging
loosely
INTENSITY
Pop Quiz!
Less than 5%
5-24%
25-49%
50-74%
75-94%
95% or more
Poll
highbush blueberry, Vaccinium corymbosum
Photo: Ellen G Denny
What percentage of flowers are open?
Hint: For Vaccinium corymbosum, flowers are open when
reproductive parts are visible from underneath, and the
bottom of the flower opens into a bell shape with scalloped
edges
INTENSITY
Pop Quiz!
Less than 5%
5-24%
25-49%
50-74%
75-94%
95% or more
Poll
highbush blueberry, Vaccinium corymbosum
Photo: Ellen G Denny
What percentage of flowers are open?
Hint: For Vaccinium corymbosum, flowers are open when
reproductive parts are visible from underneath, and the
bottom of the flower opens into a bell shape with scalloped
edges
Fruit or ripe fruit
Ripe fruit: One or more ripe fruits are visible on the plant.
For Hamamelis virginiana, a fruit is considered ripe when it has turned
brown and has split open to expose the seeds. Do not include
empty capsules that have already dropped all of their seeds.
Yes, fruit
Yes, ripe fruit
No, fruit
No, ripe fruit
Photos: Ellen G Denny
Yes, fruit
No, ripe fruit
INTENSITY
What percent of fruits are ripe?
Less than 5%
5-24%
25-49%
50-74%
75-94%
95% or more
black cherry, Prunus serotina
Photo: Mackenzie Younger
For Prunus serotina, a fruit is considered ripe
when it has turned purple-black or black
INTENSITY
What percent of fruits are ripe?
Less than 5%
5-24%
25-49%
50-74%
75-94%
95% or more
black cherry, Prunus serotina
Photo: Mackenzie Younger
For Prunus serotina, a fruit is considered ripe
when it has turned purple-black or black
INTENSITY
Pop Quiz!
Less than 5%
5-24%
25-49%
50-74%
75-94%
95% or more
Poll
highbush blueberry, Vaccinium corymbosum
Photos: Ellen G Denny
What percentage of fruit are ripe?
Hint: For highbush blueberry (Vaccinium
corymbosum), a fruit is considered ripe when it has
turned blue or blue-black
INTENSITY
Pop Quiz!
Less than 5%
5-24%
25-49%
50-74%
75-94%
95% or more
Poll
highbush blueberry, Vaccinium corymbosum
Photos: Ellen G Denny
What percentage of fruit are ripe?
Hint: For highbush blueberry (Vaccinium
corymbosum), a fruit is considered ripe when it has
turned blue or blue-black
INTENSITY
What % of the canopy is --- ?
Percent of canopy is full with leaves
Percent of canopy is full with colored leaves
Percent of plant is green (grasses)
5-24%
Less than 5%
25-49%
50-74%
75-94%
95% or more
INTENSITY
What % of the canopy is full with leaves?
Photo: Anette Schloss
Start with a bare tree… no leaves
INTENSITY
What % of the canopy is full with leaves?
Photo: Anette Schloss
Imagine it fully leafed out…
INTENSITY
What % of the canopy is full with leaves?
* Ignore dead branches in your estimate.
Photo: Anette Schloss
Less than 5%
INTENSITY
What % of the canopy is full with leaves?
Photo: Anette Schloss
5-24%
INTENSITY
What % of the canopy is full with leaves?
Photo: Anette Schloss
25-49%
INTENSITY
What % of the canopy is full with leaves?
Photo: Anette Schloss
50-74%
INTENSITY
What % of the canopy is full with leaves?
Photo: Anette Schloss
75-94%
INTENSITY
What % of the canopy is full with leaves?
Photo: Anette Schloss
95% or more
INTENSITY
Pop Quiz!
Full canopy:
Less than 5%
5-24%
25-49%
50-74%
75-94%
95% or more
sugar maple, Acer saccharum
Poll
Photo: Ellen G Denny
What percentage of
the canopy is full
with leaves?
INTENSITY
Pop Quiz!
Full canopy:
Less than 5%
5-24%
25-49%
50-74%
75-94%
95% or more
sugar maple, Acer saccharum
Poll
Photo: Ellen G Denny
What percentage of
the canopy is full
with leaves?
Colored leaves
Colored leaves: One or more leaves have turned to their lateseason colors. Do not include fully dried or dead leaves that
remain on the plant.
Yes
 Summer drought
 Insect damage or
other stresses
Photo: Ellen G Denny
… and it doesn’t
matter why:
Colored leaves
One or more leaves have turned to their late-season colors. Do not
include fully dried or dead leaves that remain on the plant.
… and it doesn’t
matter how much of
the leaf is colored
Photos: Ellen G Denny
Yes
INTENSITY
What percentage of the canopy is full with
colored leaves?
sugar maple, Acer saccharum
Photo: Ellen G Denny
Less than 5%
5-24%
25-49%
50-74%
75-94%
95% or more
Leaves: 95% or more
Colored leaves: 75-94%
Leaves: 25-49%
Colored leaves: 25-49%
Leaves: No
Colored leaves: No
Photos: Anette Schloss
Leaves: 95% or more
Colored leaves: No
INTENSITY
What percentage of the canopy is full with
colored leaves?
sugar maple, Acer saccharum
Photo: Ellen G Denny
Less than 5%
5-24%
25-49%
50-74%
75-94%
95% or more
INTENSITY
Pop Quiz!
Less than 5%
5-24%
25-49%
50-74%
75-94%
95% or more
Poll
sugar maple, Acer saccharum
Photo: Ellen G Denny
What percentage of the
canopy is full with colored
leaves?
INTENSITY
Pop Quiz!
Less than 5%
5-24%
25-49%
50-74%
75-94%
95% or more
Poll
sugar maple, Acer saccharum
Photo: Ellen G Denny
What percentage of the
canopy is full with colored
leaves?
INTENSITY
What percentage of the plant is green?
5-24%
Less than 5%
5-24%
25-49%
50-74%
75-94%
95% or more
75% +
buffelgrass, Pennisetum ciliare
Photos: Cynthia Wallace
25-49%
INTENSITY
Pop Quiz!
Less than 5%
5-24%
25-49%
50-74%
75-94%
95% or more
Poll
buffelgrass, Pennisetum ciliare
Photo: desertmuseum.org
What percentage of the
plant is green?
INTENSITY
Pop Quiz!
Less than 5%
5-24%
25-49%
50-74%
75-94%
95% or more
Poll
buffelgrass, Pennisetum ciliare
Photo: desertmuseum.org
What percentage of the
plant is green?
INTENSITY
What % of full size are most leaves?
5-24%
Less than 5%
25-49%
50-74%
75-94%
95% or more
INTENSITY
What % of full size are most leaves?
Mature leaf
50-74%
paper birch, Betula papyrifera
75-95%
Photos: Ellen G Denny
25-49%
INTENSITY
Knowing that this leaf is
full size:
black oak, Quercus veluntina
Poll
What percent of full are most
leaves?
Less than 5%
5-24%
25-49%
50-74%
75-94%
95% or more
Photos: Ellen G Denny
Pop Quiz!
INTENSITY
Knowing that this leaf is
full size:
black oak, Quercus veluntina
Poll
What percent of full are most
leaves?
Less than 5%
5-24%
25-49%
50-74%
75-94%
95% or more
Photos: Ellen G Denny
Pop Quiz!
INTENSITY
How much pollen is released?
Some: Many grains are
released.
Lots: A layer of pollen
covers your palm, or a
cloud of pollen can be
seen in the air when the
wind blows
Photos: Patricia Guertin,
Beatriz Moisset via Wikimedia Commons
Little: Only a few grains
are released.
INTENSITY
Pop Quiz!
Little
Some
Lots
Poll
Photo: B.gliwa via Wikimedia Commons
How much pollen is released?
INTENSITY
Pop Quiz!
Little
Some
Lots
Poll
Photo: B.gliwa via Wikimedia Commons
How much pollen is released?
Resources
1. Start with the definitions, and speciesspecific information.
Resources
1. Start with the definitions, and speciesspecific information.
Resources
1. Start with the definitions, and speciesspecific information.
2. Try the FAQ page.
Resources
1. Start with the definitions, and speciesspecific information.
2. Try the FAQ page.
3. Email observe@usanpn.org.
Resources
1. Start with the definitions, and speciesspecific information.
2. Try the FAQ page.
3. Email observe@usanpn.org.
4. Botany 101 guide– due this fall, and
Phenophase Primer – due next spring
Basic Botany
for making
observations in
Nature’s Notebook
Join a Nature’s Notebook campaign!
By participating in one
of our regional
campaigns you can
help researchers
answer key questions,
get info-rich emails with
localized results, and
an end of season
summary.
www.usanpn.org/nn/campaigns
Thank you!
Alyssa Rosemartin
Assistant Director &
IT Coordinator
Ellen Denny
Monitoring Design
Coordinator
Erin Posthumus
Outreach Associate
Patty Guertin
Botanist
LoriAnne Barnett
Education
Coordinator
@LoriAnneBarnett
Extra Slides
Leaves
No – don’t count
leaves as either
leaves or colored
leaves after they
have lost all their
pigments, nutrients
and chlorophyll.
Photo: casey artandcolor
One or more live, unfolded leaves are visible on the plant. A leaf is
considered "unfolded" once its entire length has emerged from the
breaking bud so that the leaf stalk (petiole) or leaf base is visible at its
point of attachment to the stem. Do not include fully dried or dead
leaves.
Flowers or flower buds
Flowers or flower buds: One or more fresh open or unopened
flowers or flower buds are visible on the plant. Include flower buds
that are still developing, but do not include wilted or dried
flowers.
No
Photos: Ellen G Denny
Yes
 Get to know the species
 Leaves and flowers may develop in the same bud (e.g. sugar
maple)
 Before reporting breaking leaf buds, wait for green leaf tip to
emerge
Photos: Ellen G Denny
Leaf bud? Flower bud?
Leaf bud? Flower bud?
 If unsure, make a comment on the first date you see a bud
expanding
Photos: Ellen G Denny
 If it turns out to be a flower bud, go back and report “yes” to flowers
or flower buds starting with the date with comment
13
13
5