The Second Industrial
Revolution
Article written by
Ray Kurzweil
1st Industrial Revolution
• Started with John Kay’s invention of flying
shuttle, 1733
• James Watt’s steam engine (1769) should
be mentioned
• Characteristics: Mechanization.
• Impact on industry: shifted from cottage
industry with craft to mass production with
machine tools.
John Kay
Weaving machine with flying shuttle
James Watt
James Watt’s steam engine
‘Products’ of 1st Industrial
Revolution
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Steam engine;
Internal combustion engine;
Electricity, and its use: Train, automobile, airplane, ocean vessel;
Bulldozer, excavator;
Refrigerator, air-conditioner;
Skyscraper;
Weapon; -
Steam engine car
Henry Ford 1896
Alessandro Volta (1745-1827)
A bulldozer
Wright Brother’s Airplane 1903
1st Industrial Revolution:
a two-edge sword?
• So many benefits and advantages it has
brought to us.
• Any negativity?
Air pollution
London, 1950s
Luddite Movement
• Founded in 1811.
• Central issue: Workers’ job security
threatened by mechanization and
automation.
• Automation vs. job has been a ‘pain’ issue
in the process of industrial revolution, even
up to now.
Luddite Movement
Automation vs. Jobs
• Technological progress eliminates some
current jobs.
• Does new tech create more new jobs than
those displaced?
• Do the new jobs pay more of less than the
older ones?
• What about the workers who are
displaced?
New Jobs Created with 1st
Industrial Revolution
• In 1870, 31% of Americans, or 12 millions,
had jobs
• In 1985, 48% of Americans, or 116
millions, had jobs.
Productivity Growth
• GNP per capita was $530 in 1870, and
$3,500 in 1970 (in 1958 dollars), which
increase 6 times.
• Percent of American workforce that
involved in food production:
In 1900, 34%;
In 1990, only 3%.
nd
2
Industrial Revolution
• It is now in progress.
• Led and inspired by computers.
• It extends and multiplies our mental
abilities, comparing to the 1st industrial
revolution that extends and multiplies our
physical capabilities.
‘Products’ of 2nd Industrial
Revolution
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Computers (PCs, …)
Internet
Cell phones
CD, DVD, MP3, digital camera, …
GPS
Gene engineering
Embedded in most modern machines
Potential Dangers
• Humans are increasingly relying on
machines whose intelligence may be as
flawed as our own.
• Technology can be, and is already, a
powerful ally of the totalitarians and
terrorists. – This danger is real, not
‘potential’.
Product Values Less Visible
• Computers use almost no natural
resources.
• Value of a ‘high tech’ product lies primarily
in the ‘knowledge’ (rather than materials) it
contains.
Value of Knowledge and
Technology
• The value of knowledge and technology
reflects the cost of research and
development (R&D) of the product’s
hardware and software, as well as the in
maintaining the ability of continuing to
advance and further the R&D.
Computing Speed Doubled
Every 2 Years
• The power of computer technology (the
ratio of speed over cost) has doubled
every 18 to 24 months.
• This is called the Moore’s Law.
Gordon Moore
Robert Noyce
A Unprecedented Challenge to
Our Superiority of Intelligence
• The 1st industrial revolution has helped
human become superior in physical
capability.
• The 2nd industrial revolution is helping
machines achieve intelligence, which may
become superior in mental capability on
top of us.
• Is our intelligence unique and
insuperable?
Copernicus’ Sun-Centered
Theory
• It is the earth that circles the sun, rather
than the sun circles our earth.
• Nicolaus Copernicus, Polish, 1473 – 1543,
published his theory in book <On the
Revolutions of Heavenly Spheres> in
1543.
Heliocentric Model
An Inexorable Advent
• Machines that are getting smarter are a
sword of two edges. It is looming large no
matter whether we like it or not.
• It cannot be stopped.
• We need to comprehend it, live with it,
harness it constructively, and turn threats
into challenges.
How Far Can 2nd Revolution Go?
• The machines of 1st revolution have over
performed our muscles.
• Do you think the machines of 2nd
revolution will over perform our brains?
A Sustained and Divergent
Process
• Comparing to the 1st one, the 2nd industrial
revolution is a continued process which
will last long and whose impacts on human
beings are divergent, boundless, and
beyond estimation.
What do you think?
• “While the first industrial revolution increased
the demand for and the value of natural
resources, the second industrial revolution is
doing the opposite.” (Bottom of page 8)
• Do you agree? Why or why not?