Workshop
1
Life is an electric highway:
A review of successful PEV uptake policies globally
Jonn Axsen
Simon Fraser University
May 14, 2015
Renewable Cities:
Global Learning Forum
Today’s Menu
1. What are plug-in vehicles (PEVs)?
2. Government levels
3. PEV policy categories
• Demand-focused policies (incentives, charging)
• Supply-focused policies (regulation)
• Rating policy effectiveness
4. Themes for discussion
2
What are PEVs?
(…and who cares?)
To meet 2050 targets…we need PEVs to be
majority of new market share by 2040…
100%
+ ZEV mandate
(achieves GHG target)
80%
PEV
new 60%
market
share
40%
“Ambitious” policies
(no ZEV, misses target)
20%
0%
2015
“Ambitious”
Policies
2020
2025
2030
Carbon Tax: $30/t 2015 to $120/t 2050
ZEV Subsidies: $5000 in 2015 and 2020
2035
2040
2045
2050
LCFS: 15% less GHG intensive w/ biofuels
CAFE: 60% less fuel intensive by 2050
Source: Sykes and Axsen (forthcoming)
…a socio-technical transition
Social
Learning and
social
influence
Technology
PEV policy
Vehicle
design
Battery
costs
Design
interests
Latent
demand
GHG and
grid impacts
Awareness
and confusion
Charging type
and speed
5
Huge variety among plug-in vehicles
20 km
Plug-in
Hybrid
(PHEV)
6
~800 km gasoline
Toyota Prius PHV
~500 km gasoline
~56 km
Chevy Volt
~117 km electric range
Pure
Electric
(EV)
Nissan Leaf
~300km electric range
Tesla Roadster
Comparing Battery Sizes:
53 kWh
24 kWh
16 kWh
4 kWh
Latent demand: one-third of new vehicle
buyers wants a PEV (mostly PHEVs)
Source: Axsen, Goldberg et al. (2015), CPEVS Report
Important barriers to PEV sales
Potential (Latent) Demand for PEV's
Only buyers that are "familiar"
Only those with home charging access
Lack of PEV variety (makes/models)
“Constrained” forecast,
without substantial policy
~1% market share
Lack of PEV availability (dealerships)
0%
Source: Wolinetz and Axsen (forthcoming)
5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%
PEV market share (2020)
Charging is only one issue…
9
Level 1: Regular outlet (1-2 kW)
Level 2: Your dryer outlet (3-6 kW)
Level 3: Fast charging (20-200 kW)
Public
Work
Charging
66% of Canadian
Car buyers
already have
Level 1 access
Home
Charging
Source: Duvall (2009), Plug-in 2009
Levels of government
(…who has the power?)
PEV policy and Government
1. City and municipal
2. State or province
3. National
11
Infrastructure
Incentives
Fuel/vehicle regulation
Policy categories
(how to think about PEV policy)
Policies address different barriers
• Home charging
• Public charging
• Awareness
Demand-focused
policies
• PEV purchase price
• PEV performance
• PEV variety (models)
• PEV availability
Supply-focused
Policies
13
Comparing PEV policies
Demandfocused
Supplyfocused
$ incentives
e.g. $5000 rebate, or income tax break,
home charger rebate
Other incentives
e.g. HOV lane access, free parking
Home chargers
e.g. building codes
Public chargers
Installation of non-home chargers
Info campaign
Disseminating information about PEVs
ZEV mandate
Automakers must sell a minimum market
share of zero-emissions vehicle
Fuel standard
Fuel suppliers must reduce carbon intensity
R&D support
Subsidies for automakers to develop PEVs
14
15
Comparing PEV policies
PEV Sales
Controversy
Good (~2x)
Low/mod
All
Other incentives
Mod
Low/mod
Local
Home chargers
Mod
Low
Local/state
Public chargers
Low
Low
Local
Info campaign
Low
Low
All
ZEV mandate
Great (~10x)
Mod
State/nation
Fuel standard
Mod
Mod
State/nation
R&D support
Mod
Low
All
Demand- $ incentives
focused
Supplyfocused
Gov’t
Level
Demand-focused policies can get
PEVs only so far…
40%
35%
PEV
new
Market
share
(BC)
30%
25%
20%
15%
Strong Demand Policy
10%
5%
0%
2012
Weak Demand Policy
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
Source: Wolinetz and Axsen (forthcoming)
Supply-focused policies may be
essential for PEV “success”
40%
35%
PEV
new
Market
share
(BC)
Strong Supply and
Demand Policy
30%
25%
California ZEV targets
20%
15%
Strong Demand Policy
10%
5%
0%
2012
Weak Demand Policy
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
Source: Wolinetz and Axsen (forthcoming)
A ZEV mandate may be essential to
achieve 2050 GHG targets
12000
10000
Passenger
vehicle 8000
GHGs
(well-towheel) 6000
Current Policies
4000
2000
2050 GHG Target
80% below 2005 GHGs
0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Source: Sykes and Axsen (forthcoming), CIMS BC model policy simulation
A ZEV mandate may be essential to
achieve 2050 GHG targets
12000
10000
Passenger
vehicle 8000
GHGs
(well-towheel) 6000
Current Policies
“Ambitious” Policies
(no ZEV)
4000
2000
2050 GHG Target
80% below 2005 GHGs
0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
“Ambitious”
Policies
Carbon Tax: $30/t 2015 to $120/t 2050
ZEV Subsidies: $5000 in 2015 and 2020
LCFS: 15% less GHG intensive w/ biofuels
CAFE: 60% less fuel intensive by 2050
Source: Sykes and Axsen (forthcoming), CIMS BC model policy simulation
A ZEV mandate may be essential to
achieve 2050 GHG targets
12000
10000
Passenger
vehicle 8000
GHGs
(well-towheel) 6000
Current Policies
“Ambitious” Policies
(no ZEV)
4000
+ZEV mandate
2000
2050 GHG Target
80% below 2005 GHGs
0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
“Ambitious”
Policies
Carbon Tax: $30/t 2015 to $120/t 2050
ZEV Subsidies: $5000 in 2015 and 2020
LCFS: 15% less GHG intensive w/ biofuels
CAFE: 60% less fuel intensive by 2050
Source: Sykes and Axsen (forthcoming), CIMS BC model policy simulation
Why is a ZEV mandate so effective?
Can harness two powerful effects:
1. “Learning-by-doing” (declining capital costs)
2. “Neighbour effect” (declining intangible costs)
LEARNING BY DOING
NEIGHBOUR EFFECT
Intangible
Cost
?
Market share
Capital
Cost
?
Cumulative production
Can trigger a threshold….
Source: Fox and Axsen (forthcoming)
Two quick “success” case studies
Norway (~6% new market share)
Very strong demand-focused policies
• Huge tax break on PEV sales (100% tax on regular cars)
(so price of Nissan Leaf = price of VW Golf)
• PEVs don’t pay tolls, road tax, public parking
• Bus lane access
California (~4% new market share)
Strong supply-focused policies
• ZEV mandate (since 1990)
• Low-carbon fuel standard
Demand-focused policies
• Financial and non-financial incentives
• Extensive charging infrastructure
22
Gil Friend
Case study: Palo Alto, California
Discussion themes
24
Assertion: PEV “success” likely needs strong
demand-focused and supply-focused policies
1. Do you agree or disagree? Why?
2. What is the role of the city in PEV deployment?
3. Where should cities devote their efforts?
Extras
Confusion of innovations:
26
“How is each of the following vehicle fueled?”
(Hybrid)
(Plug-in
Hybrid)
(Pure
electric)
Source: Axsen, Bailey and Kamiya (2013), CPEVS 2013 Preliminary Report