timeline
Nov – scenarios, model runs
Dec – draft report
Coastal Zone Management Authority & Institute
MISSION:
o “To support the allocation, sustainable
use and planned development of
Belize's coastal resources through
increased knowledge and the building of
alliances for the benefit of all Belizeans
and the global community”.
BELIZE’s Coastal & Marine Wealth
COASTAL CAPITAL of BELIZE
Economic Contribution of Belize’s Coral Reefs and Mangroves
o Tourism: US$150-$196 million/yr
(snorkeling, diving, sport fishing, etc)
o Fisheries: US$14-$16 million/yr
(lobster, conch, finfish, aquaculture)
o Shoreline Protection: US$231-347 million/yr
(avoided damages via mangroves, coral reefs)
Source: Cooper, E., L. Burke and N. Bood. 2009. “Coastal Capital of Belize.
The Economic Contribution of Belize’s Coral Reefs and Mangroves.”
Working Paper, World Resources Institute.
REAPING the BENEFITS but little
InVESTment in Nature?
History of Belize’s Coastal Planning Efforts
 1989:
Recognition of need for integrated coastal zone
management (CZM)
 1990:
CZM Technical Committee formed and CZM Unit
established under Fisheries Department
 1993:
UNDP/GEF CZM Project launched
 1998:
Establishment of CZMA/I under CZM Act
 2001:
National ICZM Strategy and Coastal Planning Regions
 2002:
Appointment of Coastal Advisory Committees (CACs)**
 2004:
Development Guidelines for Coastal Planning Regions (8)
 2005:
Considerable scaling back of resources
 2005-2008:
Transition Period
 2008-Present:
CZMAI Re-instituted/Coastal Planning Unit Reformed
A Coastal Zone Management Plan for Belize
Key Components:
o Development Suitability Guidelines
o Biological monitoring guidelines for species,
communities and habitats
o Preservation and management of cultural resources
o Conservation of threatened, potentially threatened or
endangered species
o Preservation of land and marine environs
o Increased public participation in ICZM
Key Functions:
•ENSURE focus on
economic, cultural and
social well-being
•RECOGNIZE stakeholder
role in developing initiatives
and policies
•PROMOTE cross-sectoral
decision making
•INCORPORATE existing
policies for development
and conservation
•ALLOW for regional and
local planning
A Coastal Zone Management Plan for Belize
THEN…
NOW…
o Strong focus on the
development & conservation
of land mass on atolls and
cayes
o Emphasis on ecosystembased management of both
coastal and marine environs
o Criteria used for
recommended conservation
and development areas
subjective (expert advice)
o No spatially explicit plan
o Combination of objective
science-based tool and
expert advice is informing
development and
conservation areas
o Spatially explicit coastal and
marine spatial plan
Coastal zone management plan for
Belize
VULNERABILITY
Stakeholder, local scientists
and government officials
HIGH
RISK
Fisheries
Coastal
protection
EXPOSURE
Draft zoning schemes
• current uses
• future uses
• CACs, other stakeholder
engagement
• Other reports (e.g.,
sustainable tourism)
Risk to habitats
• coral
• mangroves
• seagrass
Tourism
opportunities
Coastal zone management plan for
Belize
VULNERABILITY
Stakeholder, local scientists
and government officials
HIGH
RISK
Fisheries
Coastal
protection
EXPOSURE
Draft zoning schemes
• current uses
• future uses
• CACs, other stakeholder
engagement
• Other reports (e.g.,
sustainable tourism)
Risk to habitats
• coral
• mangroves
• seagrass
Tourism
opportunities
Zones (CURRENT USES)
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Marine Transportation
Tourism/Recreation
Biodiversity
Critical Habitats
Shoals
Fishing
Coastal & Marine Managed Areas
Special Development Areas
Cultural & Historical Areas
Human Settlements
Coastal Development
The CAC Consultation Process
Usage of CAC Input
Development of Scenarios
Ideal Scenario
Unregulated Scenario
VS.
Draft
DEVELOPMENT
CURRENT
MANAGED
High impact
Low impact
Protected Areas
UNCHECKED
Coastal zone management plan for
Belize
VULNERABILITY
Stakeholder, local scientists
and government officials
HIGH
RISK
Fisheries
Coastal
protection
EXPOSURE
Draft zoning schemes
• current uses
• future uses
• CACs, other stakeholder
engagement
• Other reports (e.g.,
sustainable tourism)
Risk to habitats
• coral
• mangroves
• seagrass
Tourism
opportunities
VULNERABILITY
HIG
H
RISK
Draf
HABITAT
EXPOSURE
CURRENT
MANAGED
UNCHECKED
Coastal zone management plan for
Belize
VULNERABILITY
Stakeholder, local scientists
and government officials
HIGH
RISK
Fisheries
Coastal
protection
EXPOSURE
Draft zoning schemes
• current uses
• future uses
• CACs, other stakeholder
engagement
• Other reports (e.g.,
sustainable tourism)
Risk to habitats
• coral
• mangroves
• seagrass
Tourism
opportunities
Marine InVEST Lobster fishery model
Inputs
What areas are most
importantFishing
for catch
zone of
Where do people
spiny lobster?
catch lobster?
Where should
Habitat
mangroves
and corals
Where?
be protected
in order
How much?
to maintain lobster
catch?
Fishing pressure
How much do
people fish?
Outputs
Catch of spiny
lobster
(no./m2/yr)
Market value of
catch ($/m2/yr)
Value of habitats
that support lobster
Dra
LOBSTER CATCH & HABITAT AREA
CURRENT
1816 lbs
MANAGED
UNCHECKED
1722 lbs
1343 lbs
Coral
Mangro
Seagra
(Areas in k
65
112
410
64
94
408
49
60
385
Coastal zone management plan for
Belize
VULNERABILITY
Stakeholder, local scientists
and government officials
HIGH
RISK
Fisheries
Coastal
protection
EXPOSURE
Draft zoning schemes
• current uses
• future uses
• CACs, other stakeholder
engagement
• Other reports (e.g.,
sustainable tourism)
Risk to habitats
• coral
• mangroves
• seagrass
Tourism
opportunities
Coastal protection
Inputs
Site characteristics
bathymetry, topography
Will restoration
or
protection of critical
habitats
provide
cost
Biotic
features
kelp,protection
seagrass, coral,
effective
mangrove
from flooding and
Storm
erosion?
characteristics
wind, waves, sea level
Social data
land tenure, population
levels, home values
Outputs
Relative exposure
Erosion and flood
control (area of land
protected)
Avoided damage
costs to property
($)
# of people
protected
Erosion for Current & Future Unchecked Development
Changes in wave height due to SLR, habitat change, and hurricane cat 4
Managed future
Unchecked development
Coastal zone management plan for
Belize
VULNERABILITY
Stakeholder, local scientists
and government officials
HIGH
RISK
Fisheries
Coastal
protection
EXPOSURE
Draft zoning schemes
• current uses
• future uses
• CACs, other stakeholder
engagement
• Other reports (e.g.,
sustainable tourism)
Risk to habitats
• coral
• mangroves
• seagrass
Tourism
opportunities
Tourism/recreation
Inputs
What areas Demographics
are most
population
visited by tourists and
how would visitation
Attractors
be affected
by
cultural, natural
conservation or
development?
Superstructure
roads, hotels
Outputs
% of visitors to
different locations
Expenditures by
visitors
RECREATION/ TOURISM
D
CURRENT
MANAGED
Draft
% Visitation
UNCHECKED
Effect of alternative zoning schemes on
uses and services
Current zones
of use
Managed
development/
protection
Unchecked
development
High impact dev
0.22 km
0.22 km
46.66 km
Low impact dev
0.08 km
14.21 km
0 km
Habitat area
587 km
565 km
493 km
Lobster catch
1816.19 lbs
1721.77 lbs
1342.58 lbs
Coastal protection
Tourism/recreation
Economic effect of alternative zoning
schemes on uses and services
Current
zones of use
Managed
development/
protection
Unchecked
development
High impact dev
$
$
$
Low impact dev
$
$
$
Lobster catch
$
$
$
Coastal protection
$/# people
$/# people
$/ #people
Tourism/recreation
$
$
$
Habitat area
Effect of alternative zoning schemes on uses and services
Managed
Unchecked
High impact dev
No
Yes
Low impact dev
Yes
No
Habitat area
Lobster catch
Coastal protection
Recreation/tourism
Main take home messages from Vincent – loved
the use of models for the process!
•
•
•
•
Social and economic valuation
Scenarios
Climate change
“validation” of data and models
Dra
Lobster gross export revenue & habitat area
CURRENT
MANAGED
UNCHECKED
$2,161,299
$2,279,823
$1,685,313
Coral
Seagra
Mangro
(Areas in k
65
112
410
64
94
408
49
60
385
Erosion for Current & Future Unchecked Development
Value of habitats for protection
$63,645,120 to $325,499,328
Plus 30 miles * $300 seawall
Main take home messages from Vincent – loved
the use of models for the process!
•
-
Social and economic valuation
WRI study (static)
InVEST study (forecast future)
Always include habitat data
•
-
-
Scenarios
Zone the whole coast?
What are the scenario elements we need for the “narrative we have to build” – the case for the
plan
How durable is the plan (good for 5 years, 10 years?, timeframe of model application)
•
-
Climate change
Essentially 2x the scenarios (management, management + climate)
•
-
“validation” of data and models
Robustness of input data – time frame, who collected etc.
Credibility – e.g., get fisheries dept to “sign off” on models
Compare outputs to available data (e.g., fisheries model fitting compare to long term data on catch,
e.g., recreation model – compare # for MPAs, to visitation data, e.g., coastal protection – Abalone
caye data?)
Tourism/recreation
Model Inputs
% land
population (#people)
% protected
% coral
% mangrove
% seagrass
% developed
What areas are important for catch of spiny lobster?
Catch in year 2021 (lbs/km2)
What habitat areas are important
for catch of spiny lobster?
Catch in year 2021 (lbs/km2)
Loss of habitats decreases catch
Current habitat
50% reduction in
habitat per planning region
What areas are important
for catch of spiny lobster?
Catch in year 2021 (lbs/km2)